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Today is D-Day for Dell (DELL). The company reports earnings after today’s close.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call are forecasting Dell will earn 41 cents a share on $14.8 billion in revenue, up from 37 cents a share and revenue of $13.5 billion a year ago.

In early trading Thursday, Dell shares fell 13 cents to $31.64.

But Dell has had a difficult time meeting or exceeding forecasts in the past year because it has faced more competition from Hewlett-Packard Co., International Business Machines Corp. and even Apple Computer Inc.

And Dell's stock suffered, slumping 29% in 2005.

In November, Dell reported third-quarter earnings fell to $606 million, or 25 cents a share, from $846 million, or 33 cents, a year earlier. Excluding $442 million in one-time charges, Dell earned 39 cents a share, in line with its revised forecast.

Revenue rose to $13.9 billion from $12.5 billion a year earlier, but slightly below the $13.97 billion expected by Wall Street.

I really don’t have a good idea of what Dell will report. Probably, 41 cents a share. I still think that the reaction to Dell’s “troubles” has been greatly exaggerated. The stock fell from $42 to $29 over a few pennies a share. Expect to hear a lot of silly talk about Dell losing market share. In my opinion, a rational price for Dell is about $35. Remember that Keynes said, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Posted by edelfenbein at February 16, 2006 1:44 PM