Archive for September, 2006

  • Steve Wozniak on CNBC
    , September 29th, 2006 at 10:56 am

    If you’re getting bored with New High Watch on the Dow, here’s an interesting interview CNBC had with Steve Wozniak this morning.

  • No Go for MVNO
    , September 29th, 2006 at 9:18 am

    I was curious if Mobile ESPN was going to have an impact. Apparently not.

    ESPN is closing down its cell phone company for sports fans after less than a year, planning instead to forge deals in which it provides content to other wireless operators.
    The planned shutdown of Mobile ESPN marks the first major bust in a rush of specialized wireless ventures targeting niche audiences they contend are underserved by the Cingulars and Verizons of the world.
    ESPN was quick to stress that its change in strategy had no bearing on Disney Mobile, another ambitious foray into the cellular market by parent company Walt Disney Co. that was officially launched just recently.
    Disney has so far invested a combined $150 million in developing Mobile ESPN and Disney Mobile, two of the highest-profile and most-heavily marketed efforts to create an “MVNO,” or mobile virtual network operator.
    An MVNO doesn’t have its own wireless network. Instead, it puts its brand on another wireless operator’s service — whose name is hidden from the customer — and offers its own lineup of handsets and calling plans.
    Going forward, Mobile ESPN will cease being an MVNO and instead seek to provide its sports scores, news and video highlights to other wireless companies with large customer bases.

  • The Market Reaches All-Time High
    , September 28th, 2006 at 4:25 pm

    Not the Dow. Not the S&P 500. But the Wilshire 5000 Total Return Index (^DWCT).
    This is the broadest measure of the stock market’s total retun. It includes several thousand stocks, and it’s adjusted for dividends.
    On March 24, 2000, the index closed at 47.84098. Today, it closed at 47.86562.
    For the record, the Dow closed at 11,718.45, which is just 4.53 points below its all-time high close from January 14, 2000. We did, however, peak into record territory during the day.
    The S&P 500 closed at 1,339.15 which is 12.3% below its record close. Adjusting for dividends, it’s down about 2.5%.

  • The Election Cycle Begins
    , September 28th, 2006 at 3:01 pm

    You only have one shopping day left to take advantage of the four-year Election Cycle. Major caveat: I don’t put much faith in any of this, but here’s what the data says.
    Going back to 1930, the Dow reaches its average bottom on September 30 of the mid-term election year. From that point until September 13 of the pre-election year, the Dow gains an average of 31.6%.
    That means that over 95% of the Dow’s four-year gain comes within the first 12 months of the Election Cycle.
    After that, the market then gets a bit dicey until May 25 of the election, losing 6.6%. But then things start heating up. The market puts on an impressive 19.4% rally to August 2 of the post-election year.
    Then all the troubles start. After August 2 of the post-ection year, the market slides an average of 9.4% until we’re home again–September 30 of the mid-term.

  • Danaher Hits All-Time High
    , September 28th, 2006 at 2:20 pm

    Forget the Dow, look at Danaher (DHR)! After a few days of heavy fighting, the stock finally took out its May high. Shares of DHR are up 23% for us year-to-date.
    From August 9 through yesterday’s close, our Buy List was up 10% compared with 5.6% for the S&P 500.

  • Second-Quarter GDP Revised to 2.6%
    , September 28th, 2006 at 9:10 am

    The initial estimate was for 2.5%, then it was revised up to 2.9%. Now it’s been cut back down to 2.6% growth.

  • The Dow & Terrell Owens
    , September 27th, 2006 at 3:39 pm

    December 7, 1973: Owens born in Alabama. Dow rises 3% to 838.05.
    October 14, 2002: Sharpie Incident. Dow rises 27 points to 7,877.40.
    November 15, 2004: Desperate Housewives Incident. Dow rises 11 to 10,550.24.
    September 27, 2006: Owens denies suicide attempt. Dow rises 20 points to 34 points shy of an all-time high.

  • Irrational Pessimism?
    , September 27th, 2006 at 3:04 pm

    While the Dow is flirting with a new all-time high, the S&P 500 is still about 12% below its all-time. But what about earnings?
    No wonder private equity is booming! Profits are up 57% since the market’s peak in March 2000. The market’s P/E ratio has nearly been cut in half.

  • Kobi Alexander Nabbed in Namibia
    , September 27th, 2006 at 11:38 am

    Here’s a cool story: The Feds finally caught up with former Comverse CEO Kobi Alexander in Namibia. He’s been a fugitive from justice since he was charged with illegal options backdating. He even made it to the FBI’s most wanted list.

  • S&P Cuts Harley-Davidson to Sell
    , September 27th, 2006 at 10:18 am

    From BW:

    We continue to like Harley’s strong brand and market leadership. Also, we expect more dividend hikes and stock repurchases as the company utilizes free cash flow. However, in our view, based on our EPS estimates for 2006 and 2007, the stock is now at ample p-e premiums of 10% and 12% to the S&P 500, respectively. Also, we have some concern that an aging U.S. population will limit longer-term domestic motorcycle sales. Based on our discounted cash-flow model, we are keeping our 12-month target price at $62.

    By my math, Harley (HOG) is going for 15.77 times next year’s earnings ($65.64/$4.16), and the S&P 500 is going for 14.06 times 2007’s earnings (1336.18/95.04). That works out to a premium of 12.2%.