Third-Quarter GDP

Today’s GDP report was pretty bad. The economy grew by just 1.59% for the third quarter. What concerns me is that this is the second straight below-trend quarter. As a data series, GDP is somewhat trend sensitive.
Since 1983, when the economy has grown by over 3% for one quarter, it has a 66% chance of growing by over 3% for the following quarter. If the economy grows by less than 3%, then it has a 41% chance of growing by over 3% for the following quarter.
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Posted by on October 27th, 2006 at 10:54 am


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