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David Weidner looks at the recent round of broker write-offs:

The bet is that the bigger the write-down now, the less these institutions will have to write down in the future. This is like a baseball team that celebrates after losing by nine runs, because the odds seem somehow greater that it will lose the next game by a big margin. This logic has Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk Ziegal & Co., flabbergasted.

"These companies are not going to see their markets jump back immediately," he wrote in a note to clients. "Their earnings power has been lowered. This is a reason to sell not buy. The theory that if the company writes off $2 billion it should see its stock price up $1 and if it writes off $6 billion the stock should jump $3 is not one I can embrace."

Doesn’t make much sense to me either.

Posted by edelfenbein at October 9, 2007 9:24 AM