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The New England Patriots are set to play the Miami Dolphins, which is a match-up between the best team in the league and the worst. How do you set a point spread for such an extreme event?

Vegas has decided on 21-1/2 points. Just like the stock market, this is the collective judgment of many, many um...investors. The New York Times notes that the Pats have failed to cover in four of their last six games.

The possibility of the Patriots’ becoming the N.F.L.’s second unbeaten champion has captured the nation’s fascination. At the same time, they seem to have rewritten the rule book when it comes to sports gambling. Not only are the Patriots close to setting several N.F.L. records, including most points and touchdowns, but their march to perfection has also set bank-breaking numbers that have astounded the sports-gambling culture.

“We try to come up with a line that at least gives the perception that either team has an equal chance to cover, and for his backer to win,” said Jeff Sherman, assistant race and sports book manager at the Las Vegas Hilton. “We just want to split the action — it sounds like it’s pretty simple. But this year with the Patriots, things are way out of whack.”

Out of whack? So the Pats are a market dislocation.

Posted by edelfenbein at December 23, 2007 8:23 AM