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« My Favorite NH Primary Stat | Main | Erin Burnett: Opium Head » January 9, 2008 Did the Futures Markets Fail?I just wrote about this a few days ago, but here it is again. Daniel Gross asks: "Why were the political futures markets so wrong about Obama and Clinton?" The answer is that they weren’t wrong. They’re not predictions markets, they’re odds-setting markets. There's a big difference. Going on the little evidence it had, the futures market declared Hillary a longshot, and she beat the odds. That’s not a market failure. That’s...beating the odds. That's like saying Google's IPO was a failure because the stock has climbed so much since then. Posted by edelfenbein at January 9, 2008 12:41 AM |
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