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I went to Intrade to see the latest results on outcome for each state's vote in the electoral college. The table below shows each state, the latest price for Democratic and GOP candidate to win the state, the number electoral votes and the projected number for the GOP candidate (sorry Dems, it just seemed easier that way).

The projected number is the GOP contract times the number of electoral votes. The total comes to 251.65, which indicates a Democratic victory. Let me add the usual caveats that this is far from scientific, and the trading volume is very light.

State...DEM.......GOP.......EV......Proj. GOP
AL........7.5..........92.5........9........8.33
AK........10.0........90.0........3........2.70
AZ........6.2..........93.8.......10.......9.38
AR........26.0........74.0........6........4.44
CA........91.5........8.5.........55.......4.68
CO........60.5........39.5.......9.........3.56
CT........93.0........7.0.........7.........0.49
DE........90.0........10.0........3........0.30
DC........96.3........3.7........3..........0.11
FL.........20.0........80.0......27........21.60
GA........12.0........88.0......15........13.20
HI........93.0........7.0..........4........0.28
ID........5.0..........95.0........4........3.80
IL........92.2........7.8........21........1.64
IN........24.0........76.0........11........8.36
IA........66.0........34.0........7.........2.38
KN........12.0........88.0........6........5.28
KY........8.7..........91.3........8........7.30
LA........13.2........86.8........9........7.81
ME........80.0........20.0........4........0.80
MD........92.3 ........7.7........10........0.77
MA........92.0........8.0........12........0.96
MI........78.0........22.0........17........3.74
MN........79.0........21.0........10.......2.10
MS........10.5........89.5........6.........5.37
MO........42.5........57.5.......11.......6.33
MT........10.2........89.8........3........2.69
NE........15.0........85.0........5........4.25
NV........50.0........45.0........5........2.25
NH........53.5........43.0........4........1.72
NJ........81.0........19.0........15........2.85
NM........64.0........36.0........5........1.80
NY........92.5........7.5........31........2.33
NC........24.0........76.0........15......11.40
ND........15.0........90.0........3........2.70
OH........61.9........38.1........20......7.62
OK........10.0........90.0........7........6.30
OR........85.0........20.0........7........1.40
PA........70.0........ 33.5........21......7.04
RI........94.0........6.0..........4.........0.24
SC........19.5........85.0........8........6.80
SD........15.0........85.0........3........2.55
TN........10.0........90.0........11.......9.90
TX........14.0........86.0........34.......29.24
UT........7.5........92.5........5..........4.63
VT........89.5........10.5........3........0.32
VA........44.5........55.5........13........7.22
WA........90.0........10.0........11.......1.10
WV........18.0........ 82.0........5........4.10
WI........72.5........27.5........10.........2.75
WY........7.5........92.5........3...........2.78

A few observations. Once again, Ohio is the Middle C State. The states that are more in the GOP column than Ohio added up to 258 electoral votes, the states that are more Democratic add up to 260. You need 270 to win, so as goes Ohio, so goes the nation. At least, according to Intrade.

Currently, five Bush states are in the Democratic column; Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico and Iowa.

It seems like there are just few battleground states: Nevade, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and most importantly, Ohio. So if you don't live in one of those states, you really don't need to vote.

Posted by edelfenbein at April 28, 2008 10:47 PM