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For the first time since August 18, 1982, the S&P 500 might be lower than it was 10 years before.

The S&P 500 has been as low as 1,225.82 today. Today could be our lowest close since June 13, 2006. And if we go below 1,223.69, it will be our lowest close since November 9, 2005.

We’re already lower than where we were on the last day of trading in 1998. Here's a look at how we're doing this July (red line) compared with July 1998 (blue line):

Even if don't break a 10-year trailing close this month, it will probably happen soon. The market is still over 19% below its March 2000 high. Are we going to be 24% higher 20 months from now?

Posted by edelfenbein at July 11, 2008 1:23 PM