Archive for September, 2008

  • The Eurozone is Officially in a Recession
    , September 24th, 2008 at 10:20 am

    There’s been a debate on whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. The pro-recession crowd says that it’s obvious we are. The anti side tells us the numbers keep saying no. Now the Financial Times says the Eurozone is now in a recession:

    The eurozone has fallen into recession, with industry particularly badly hit by the fall-out from global economic turmoil, results of a closely watched survey indicated on Tuesday.
    Private sector output in the 15-country region contracted in September for the fourth consecutive month, according to eurozone purchasing managers’ indices. The pace of decline was the fastest since the aftermath of the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the US, with manufacturing faring worse than services.
    The latest data indicated that, even if the crisis on Wall Street has yet to have a direct impact on eurozone economies, global economic storms have pushed the region into a technical recession – two quarters of contracting gross domestic product.
    The eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index – covering services as well as manufacturing – fell from 48.2 in August to 47 this month. A figure below 50 is meant to indicate a contraction in activity.

  • FactSet Research Systems’ Earnings
    , September 23rd, 2008 at 9:37 pm

    FactSet Research Systems (FDS) reported decent earnings today. For its fiscal fourth quarter (ending August 31), the company earned 68 cents a share which was four cents a share better than Street estimates. For last year’s Q4, the company earned 58 cents a share. Sales were up 18.7% to 153.7 million. For Q1, the company sees sales of $154 to $157 million and operating margins between 31.5% and 33%.
    The CEO said, “The macro environment has now been challenging for more than a year, yet it is gratifying that again this quarter FactSet grew both its user base and client count. The results point to significant progress in our efforts to increase the engagement level of users and add incremental value to clients. We were also very pleased that our previously announced acquisition of Thomson Fundamentals closed during the fourth quarter. We believe that the estimated market opportunity for fundamental data just among our existing client base is in excess of $100 million, representing a large new source of potential revenue growth for FactSet.”
    FDS is often seen as a proxy for the health of the financial sector. I don’t think that’s correct. The company has been holding up very well during the recent unpleasantness. Last quarter, the client count increased by 41 to 2,085, and the number of users climbed by 510 to 40,120.
    Year……………..Sales……………….EPS
    1998……………$78.91……………..$0.26
    1999……………$103.83……………$0.37
    2000……………$134.18……………$0.49
    2001……………$167.56……………$0.64
    2002……………$198.29……………$0.78
    2003……………$222.30……………$0.98
    2004……………$251.91……………$1.15
    2005……………$312.64……………$1.43
    2006……………$387.35……………$1.64
    2007……………$475.80……………$2.14
    2008……………$575.52……………$2.50

  • Thanks Hugo
    , September 23rd, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    From Comrade Chavez:
    “I nationalize strategic companies and get criticized, but when Bush does it, it’s OK,” Chavez said on weekly television program Sept. 21. “Bush is turning socialist. How are you, comrade Bush?”
    (Via: DealBreaker)

  • We’re All Zimbabweans Now
    , September 22nd, 2008 at 12:23 pm

    The chart says it all.

  • Goldman, Morgan to become holding companies
    , September 22nd, 2008 at 12:18 pm

    MarketWatch reports:

    In yet another extraordinary development for Wall Street, the Federal Reserve said late Sunday night that venerable investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will become bank holding companies, subjecting themselves to stricter federal oversight.
    The Wall Street titans will be allowed to transition into holding companies following a mandatory five-day waiting period, and will be able to take advantage of credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in order to complete the transition.

    So does this mean I’ll soon be seeing Goldman Sachs ATMs around town?

  • The Bailout Plan
    , September 22nd, 2008 at 11:15 am

    I’m going to be the first to call it, this bailout plan is going down. I don’t know how or when, but I don’t see this thing lasting. At best, it’s going to be dramatically revised.
    The plan has all the hallmarks of something the American public hates. It’s too expensive. It’s secretive…we just woke up one day and were told we needed it. We don’t know if it will work. It seems un-American.

  • More Stocks You Can’t Short
    , September 22nd, 2008 at 11:06 am

    The SEC allowed the exchanges to add stocks to the No-Short List. Here’s what the NYSE has added:
    1. GLG GLG Partners, Inc.
    2. GE General Electric Co.
    3. OCN Ocwen Financial Corporation
    4. KBW KBW, Inc.
    5. GFG Guaranty Financial Group Inc.
    6. MFG Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.
    7. FMR First Mercury Financial Corporation
    8. STC Stewart Information Services Corporation
    9. FCF First Commonwealth Financial Corporation
    10. MTB M&T Bank Corporation
    11. DFS Discover Financial Services
    12. BMO Bank of Montreal
    13. TD Toronto Dominion Bank
    14. CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
    15. FMD The First Marblehead Corporation
    16. BBV Banco Bilbao Vizcaya SA
    17. CIB BanColombia SA
    18. LM Legg Mason, Inc.
    19. NFP National Financial Partners Corp.
    20. AXP American Express Company
    21. CIT CIT Group Inc.
    22. GM General Motors Corporation
    23. HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group
    24. ADS Alliance Data Systems Corporation
    25. ALD Allied Capital Corporation
    26. RAS RAIT Financial Trust
    27. DRL Doral Financial Corporation
    28. FSR Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings
    29. MCO Moody’s Corporation
    30. COF Capital One Financial Corporation
    31. CS Credit Suisse Group AG

  • More Fallout from the Credit Crisis
    , September 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 am

    Well it never end?
    Crain’s:

    New Yorkers hitting the bottle

    The Sun:

    Credit crunch means couples stay at home making babies

    NY Mag:

    Eager Ecdysiasts Dance Through Downturn (“Those girls specialize in taking care of their clients’ emotional needs and ‘wellness’—listening to their problems, conversing,” he says. “Forty percent of the time, they’re not even consummating.”)

  • NYC Strippers Screwed by Sucky Stocks
    , September 21st, 2008 at 2:10 am

    Is stripping too big to fail?

    So the NYC economy is headed for the crapper, sure — but who’s really suffering? Weep for the strippers.
    We’re told first-hand by the pole-gymnasts at joints like the Penthouse Executive Club in NYC that biz has come to a grinding halt — and to add insult to injury, strippers say one-dollar bills have replaced tens and twenties. Oh, the humanity!
    Sources tell us traffic at some super-exclusive Manhattan nightspots is down 40-50% since the wheels came off.

  • Howard on the New Financial Frontier
    , September 20th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

    Great post from Howard Lindzon:

    The best strategy to come out of this mess will be Global Macro Funds, funds with deep pools making concentrated bets in sectors and countries. They will be funds focused on a longer term horizon with bigger pools of capital. They embrace the volatility because of their connections, patience and deep knowledge of their sectors. The displaced talent from the industry will gravitate to these funds first. It is their best opportunity to be paid for their experience. I am digging through some of the worst performing funds of the last few years in the Global Macro sector and with the help of some of my friends in the industry plan to find a few and make some investments.
    At the other end will be the nimble, the creative and the opportunistic. Those willing to change the industry through hard work and the profiting from niche markets afforded to them in the new financial landscape. This is where I will focus my energies and am already writing a few business plans. I now my strengths and weaknesses. I am not a ‘Shark’, but a ‘Pilot Fish’ and very in tune with the limits, and opportunities that affords me.
    Thousands of great traders were thrown out into the wild the last few months. They are disoriented, pissed, nervous, but for the most part, they will end up on their feet and contribute back into the financial system in new ways – small hedge funds, start-up economy and other leadership roles. Some will write books and some will leave the financial world for good.
    The financial media world on the other hand will continue to talk about ‘BOTTOMS’ – Was this one? If not when?
    I am licking my chops because this bottom talk and regulation talk and babble will go on for 6-12 months. It’s noise and it will drag you in if not careful. In the meantime, I will be working towards one end of what I know is going to be a hugely profitable niche and start cranking.

    Read the whole thing.