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Duh.

The head of the panel that officially dates U.S. economic cycles said there's no doubt now that a recession is under way following a surge in the unemployment rate to a 14-year high.

"The evidence is more than compelling" Robert Hall, the Stanford University economist who leads the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee, said in an interview. "It's conclusive, in my personal opinion."

With today's remarks, Hall joined fellow panelist and Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein in calling a recession. The eight-member panel will meet at a later date to make an official determination because it needs additional details on gross domestic product figures, Hall said.

Feldstein and other analysts have said the economic slump is likely to be deeper than the past two recessions, in 2001 and 1990-91. Today's employment report reinforced that pessimism, with the unemployment rate climbing to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent the previous month.

By my estimate, I think they'll say the recession began in May.

Posted by edelfenbein at November 7, 2008 2:18 PM