|
« What Do You Think? |
Main
| The Barofsky Report »
November 17, 2009
Was Belichick Right to Go for it?
Brian Burke says yes:
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
Greg Mankiw adds: "Randomness is a fact of life, even if Patriots' fans do not fully appreciate it."
Posted by edelfenbein at November 17, 2009 11:06 AM
|
