Recession/Expansion by ISM Level

Here’s some research I was playing around with this afternoon and I thought I’d post it. This shows the historical record of the economy being in an expansion by ISM reading.

From To Mos. Expansion Total Mos. Percent
77 77.9 1 1 100.00%
76 76.9 1 1 100.00%
75 75.9 1 1 100.00%
74 74.9 1 1 100.00%
73 73.9      
72 72.9 1 1 100.00%
71 71.9      
70 70.9 1 1 100.00%
69 69.9 6 6 100.00%
68 68.9 5 5 100.00%
67 67.9 7 7 100.00%
66 66.9 5 5 100.00%
65 65.9 7 7 100.00%
64 64.9 8 8 100.00%
63 63.9 11 12 91.67%
62 62.9 14 15 93.33%
61 61.9 15 16 93.75%
60 60.9 28 28 100.00%
59 59.9 24 25 96.00%
58 58.9 39 40 97.50%
57 57.9 34 34 100.00%
56 56.9 34 34 100.00%
55 55.9 47 48 97.92%
54 54.9 46 48 95.83%
53 53.9 45 45 100.00%
52 52.9 39 41 95.12%
51 51.9 36 38 94.74%
50 50.9 38 42 90.48%
49 49.9 36 41 87.80%
48 48.9 20 24 83.33%
47 47.9 19 25 76.00%
46 46.9 19 25 76.00%
45 45.9 18 22 81.82%
44 44.9 5 12 41.67%
43 43.9 7 17 41.18%
42 42.9 8 13 61.54%
41 41.9 2 5 40.00%
40 40.9 1 9 11.11%
39 39.9 1 9 11.11%
38 38.9 0 7 0.00%
37 37.9 1 8 12.50%
36 36.9 1 7 14.29%
35 35.9 0 7 0.00%
34 34.9 0 2 0.00%
33 33.9 0 1 0.00%
32 32.9 0 3 0.00%
31 31.9 0 3 0.00%
30 30.9 0 3 0.00%
29 29.9 0 1 0.00%

In other words, the ISM has been between 49.0 and 49.9 41 times. According to NBER’s recession dating, 36 of those months have been months of economic expansion.

The ISM has been 46.5 or greater on 613 months and 581 of those have been in expansion (or 94.78%).

The ISM has been 42.7 or less for 75 months and just 11 of those have been in expansions (14.67%).

The real gray area is from 41.0 to 44.9. The ISM has now been above 52.4 for 15-straight months and we get the next reading at 10 am on Wednesday.

Posted by on November 29th, 2010 at 4:25 pm


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