Earnings Season Details

From Zacks:

4Q earnings season going strong, with 372 reports in, median surprise of 3.83% and surprise ratio of 3.44 for EPS, 1.40% and 2.33 for revenues.

Reported (372 firms) fourth quarter earnings growth of 27.4%, expected (128 firms) year-over-year growth of 34.1% for the firms yet to report. On the Revenue side, 8.50% growth reported, but decline of 2.50% expected for those yet to report.

Reported net margins (372 firms) rise to 9.65% from 8.22% a year ago, down from 9.93% in third quarter. Margins excluding financials rise to 8.54% from 7.76% last year and 8.67% in third quarter.

Net margins expected (128 firms) to expand to 6.29% (among those yet to report) from 4.57% a year ago, and from 6.09% in third quarter. Excluding Financials, margins expected to rise to 6.02% from 5.86% a year ago, but down from 6.19% in the third quarter.

Full-year total earnings for the S&P 500 expected to jump 43.8% in 2010, 14.9% further in 2011. Growth to continue in 2012 with total net income expected to rise 12.1%.

Total revenues for the S&P 500 expected to rise 6.42% in 2010, 5.28% in 2011, and 5.42% in 2012. Excluding Financials, revenues expected to be up 10.00% in 2010, 6.62% in 2011 and 5.74% in 2012.

Net Margins marching higher, from 5.88% in 2008 to 6.42% in 2009 to 8.68% expected for 2010, 9.47% expected for 2011 and 10.07% in 2012. Major source of earnings growth. Net margins ex-Financials 7.79% in 2008, 7.12% in 2009, 8.21% expected for 2010, 8.75% in 2011, and 9.29% in 2012.

Revisions ratio for full S&P 500 at 1.73 for 2011, at 1.82 for 2012, both very bullish readings. Ratio of firms with rising to falling mean estimates at 1.98 for 2011, 1.81 for 2012, also very positive readings. Total revisions activity still expanding, making the revisions ratios more significant.

S&P 500 earned $544.3 billion in 2009, expected to earn $785.5 billion in 2010, $902.7 billion in 2011. In 2012, the 500 are collectively expected to earn $1.012 Trillion.

S&P 500 earned $57.62 in 2009: $82.82 in 2010 and $95.17 in 2011 expected, bottom up. For 2012, $106.69 expected in an early read. Puts P/Es at 15.96x for 2010, and 13.89x for 2011 and 12.39x for 2012.

Posted by on February 15th, 2011 at 7:28 pm


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