Archive for June, 2015
The Halfway Point
Eddy Elfenbein, June 30th, 2015 at 5:02 pm
The first half of 2015 is officially on the books.
For the first six months of this year, our Buy List has crushed the S&P 500 by a ratio of 15 to 1!!
Our Buy List is up 3.02% YTD while the S&P 500 has gained a meager 0.20%.
Including dividends, our Buy List was up 3.59% while the S&P 500 with dividends gained 1.22%.
Here’s how each of our stocks has performed. I’ve included the price gain and the dividend-adjusted gain.
Symbol Price Gain With Dividend FISV 16.71% 16.71% SNA 16.46% 17.29% SBNY 16.22% 16.22% CTSH 16.01% 16.01% WAB 8.46% 8.60% HRL 8.20% 9.20% EBAY 7.34% 7.34% ESRX 5.04% 5.04% ROST 3.14% 3.62% BLL 2.90% 3.28% WFC 2.59% 3.97% BCR 2.45% 2.71% AFL 1.82% 3.10% SYK 1.31% 2.06% F -3.16% -1.25% MOG-A -4.53% -4.53% MSFT -4.95% -3.64% BBBY -9.44% -9.44% ORCL -10.38% -9.82% QCOM -15.74% -14.66%
Why Signature Bank Can’t Be Beat
Eddy Elfenbein, June 30th, 2015 at 11:20 am
Why Signature Bank Can’t Be Beat
by Alyssa Oursler
The financial sector has been slightly outperforming the market over the last 12 months and has been regaining strength dramatically since the financial crisis hit in 2008. Many of the biggest banks have bounced back from near death, posting improvements in earnings and asset quality recently. But some small banks have been regaining strength as well — and one small bank in particular barely took a beating even during the crisis, which sheds light on just how strong it is. Signature Bank (SBNY) is on the Crossing Wall Street buy list and has been blowing away rivals since going public in 2004.
For background, Signature is a full-service commercial bank with 27 private client offices located throughout the New York metropolitan area. That might not sound that impressive, but that niche has bred success for Signature, The key that sets the bank apart is the fact that it’s built on people, not on buzz.
As a Crain’s New York feature showcased, “Signature has secured a reputation in its field as a place where seasoned bankers want to work … Signature’s success stems from management recruiting groups of experienced business bankers, from rivals like Citibank and HSBC, who bring clients with them.” In fact, Signature’s CEO told Aaron Elstein at Crain’s: “It’s true we aren’t in the headlines much. I don’t mind.” He prefers to focus on hiring the best people as opposed to grabbing media attention.
That might sound fluffy as an investment thesis, but it trickles down to the tangible. See, the bank also offers these top-notch employees a large amount of freedom in how they work with clients, which has been a recipe for success. Of its $14 billion in loans, only 0.25% are more than 90 days delinquent. That’s 10% of the industry average. Signature also spends a mere 36 cents to generate each dollar in revenue — overhead that is 40% below the industry average. For the cherry on top, it boasts a 14% return on equity, which is 4 percentage points above the industry average.
Put another way, SNL Financial recently ran some numbers on the 100 largest banks in the U.S., looking at asset quality, capital adequacy and profitability to gauge the best and worst banks. And you guessed it — SBNY was top of the charts thanks to strong fundamentals on top of impressive growth potential for the NYC market. As Kurt Badenhausen noted for Forbes, “There are $1.4 trillion in deposits in New York banks, almost three times the next biggest metro of Philadelphia.”
Those qualities also make Signature Banks a textbook example of the Crossing Wall Street investing philosophy of buying and holding shares of outstanding companies. During the past decade, Signature Bank has posted 15 consecutive quarters of record diluted earnings per share, while shares of SBNY are up 17% year-to-date and 284% over the last five years. Since going public, Signature is the top-performing bank stock. Their return has more than lapped the second-best performing bank.
Of course, with such head-turning outperformance, it’s fair to be concerned about buying at a top. While the question remains whether Signature Bank can maintain this sizzling upwards trend, the analyst community is bullish, to say the least. Zack’s Investment Research just upgraded SBNY assigning it a $166 price target — good for 12% upside. Earlier this month, Guggenheim raised its price target from $155 to $165 and gave Signature a buy rating.
Plus, estimates for the current quarter and full year’s earnings have been moving in the right direction. Three months ago, analysts were expecting $1.65 per share for the current quarter, while they’ve tacked four pennies onto that number recently — good for double-digit year-over-year growth. Things are even sweeter for the full year; analysts have upped estimates from $6.80 to $6.95 per share, good for year-over-year growth of nearly 17%.
That growth is the reason why, despite the consistent upwards trend, Signature Bank shares aren’t extremely overpriced. The bank is slated for consistent earnings improvements, too, including 13% annual earning growth over the next five years. That’s better than the industry and nearly twice the expected growth for the broader market … which is especially impressive considering the growth it’s building upon.
Meanwhile, the stock just hit a new lifetime high yet is still trading for just 18 times forward earnings. While that’s a slight premium to the 13% growth on tap, it’s worth it considering the track record. Investors are shelling out a slight premium for a company that’s fundamentally sound and has proven itself as a long-term hold … but that also has impressive momentum. Put another way, SBNY is appealing to a wide variety of investors, which should provide further fuel to keep the stock moving higher.
All in all, Signature Bank is a signature buy. Between rock-solid fundamentals, a mouthwatering track record and a strong outlook, there’s no reason to think SBNY won’t continue to blow away both the financial sector and the broader market in years to come.
Alyssa Oursler is based in San Francisco and writes about technology, investing, gender and entrepreneurship. Her work has appeared on Business Insider, MSN Money, InvestorPlace and more. You can follow her on Twitter here or check out her personal site here. As of this writing, she did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
The Must Follow Podcast
Eddy Elfenbein, June 30th, 2015 at 10:28 am
In 2015, the idea of a four-year average holding period per stock position might be a completely foreign idea to you. In April, the Wall Street Journal reported the average holding period for U.S. Stocks is just 17 weeks! So, we understand if four years sounds crazy.
But to today’s podcast guest Eddy Elfenbein, four years is the sweet spot.
“A four-year holding period is a reasonable time period to know if your investment is working out” — @EddyElfenbein
Eddy Elfenbein is now in the 10th year of publishing an annual “Buy List” which consists of twenty stocks vetted to be worthy of investment by a host of fundamental qualifications. Each year, the Buy List is reviewed and five new stocks are chosen to replace five stocks Eddy deems to have less opportunity for appreciation ahead. Once January 1st hits, this list — these 20 stocks — are the only stocks Eddy will allow himself to buy for the remainder of the year.
During this run, the slowly-morphing list (equally balanced each Jan 1) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 50% while clocking in with slightly less volatility than the index. What’s not to like about that?
One might guess that to maintain a stoic indifference to the daily and weekly fluctuations of stocks in your portfolio, you must detach yourself fully from the Financial Media Entertainment Complex. But in Eddy’s case, you’ll find fewer people more attuned to the constantly changing global financial news landscape and with a deeper fascination in how the global economy works than him. How does he do it?
We get into this and much much more in this stimulating conversation for anyone who hasn’t yet internalized a less-is-more philosophy to managing your investments:
Morning News: June 30, 2015
Eddy Elfenbein, June 30th, 2015 at 5:00 am
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Eddy Elfenbein, June 29th, 2015 at 6:32 pm
The market was not in its happy place today. Right after I told you how placid the market has been acting in the last newsletter, the S&P 500 dropped 2.09% today.
This was the worst day of the year so far. It was the first 2% decline in 2015, and it was the biggest drop since February 3, 2014. The S&P 500 is now down for the year. The index is just above its 200-day moving average.
The weak spots today were healthcare, financials and materials. The best areas, meaning down the least, were utilities and energy. Today was a Quadrant 3 day.
The S&P 500 High Beta index was off 2.73% while Low Vol was down 1.82%. The S&P 500 High Quality Index was down 1.86%.
This was a harsh day for our Buy List as well. We were down 2.52% today which was 43 basis points worse than the market. But that comes after an impressive run of beating the S&P 500. We’re still 288 basis points ahead of the market. Qualcomm (QCOM) came near its 52-week low. The stock now yields just over 3%.
Two Quick Stories
Eddy Elfenbein, June 29th, 2015 at 12:46 pm
Overall, this is a rough day for the markets. As I’ve said, the scare isn’t Greece but who’s next. Once a precedent is set, then the dominos can fall.
With the PayPal spinoff coming, I have to think that it might be snapped up quickly. IBD looks at that possibility:
JPMorgan raised its price target on eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) ahead of its spinoff of payments arm PayPal, and said a “stand-alone” eBay could be involved in M&A.
PayPal, meanwhile, has been viewed as a possible partner of Alibaba Group or a takeover target. PayPal will face stiff competition from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Samsung in mobile payments, some analysts say.
Doug Anmuth, a JPMorgan analyst, raised his eBay price target to 64 from 60.
“Some of eBay’s playbook sounds familiar, and management will now need to show that it can execute on it better than over the past few years,” said Anmuth in a research report. “But eBay also has some fallback with $1 billion to $2 billion in net cash at separation, more than $2 billion in annual free cash flow, and significant capacity to lever up and return capital if desired.”
“A stand-alone eBay also becomes more of an M&A candidate going forward, in our view,” he added.
“We currently value PayPal at a market cap of $44 billion,” Anmuth wrote, “and a post-spin share price of $36. Overall, we are encouraged by the prospects for both PayPal and eBay as stand-alone companies and investment vehicles. However, between the two we believe PayPal is better positioned in terms of the potential to drive future innovation, the competitive landscape, and overall growth opportunities.”
William Dudley, the head of the New York Fed, recently said that the Fed may increase interest rates in September:
Speaking on Friday, Mr Dudley said the data since then have made him “less worried about the labour market piece”. He declined to reveal his personal forecast for when the Fed will first lift rates, indicating it was perfectly possible the central bank will wait until December before moving.
“If we hit 2.5 per cent growth in the second quarter and it looks like the third quarter is shaping up for something similar, then I think you are on a firm enough track that you would imagine you would have made sufficient progress in our two tests [for a rate hike], certainly by the end of the year,” he said.
“It would not shock me if we decided to lift off in September, or it wouldn’t shock me if the data were a little softer and it caused us to wait.”
Markets Down on Greek News
Eddy Elfenbein, June 29th, 2015 at 11:25 am
The stock market is down today on more disappointing news from Greece. Negotiations broke down over the weekend, and there’s been a run on Greek banks. Everyone there wants to get euros in hand, and fast.
It’s gotten so bad that the government stepped in and closed all banks along with their stock market. They’ve also decided to have a referendum this Sunday on whether the country should accept austerity in exchange for more aid. Shares in the National Bank of Greece are down 20% today.
I still think some deal will come about but I’m not certain. I think the IMF and European Union are fed up with Greece and their far-left government.
The fallout in our market isn’t too dramatic. Cullen Roche noted that Greece is looking at defaulting on a $1.6 billion loan. That’s Walmart’s revenue over 30 hours. So let’s put this all in some perspective.
The S&P 500 is currently down 1.14% but there’s a big spread underneath the surface. The Low-Volatility Index is down 0.82% while the High Beta sector is down 1.71%. That’s a big gap.
Morning News: June 29, 2015
Eddy Elfenbein, June 29th, 2015 at 7:03 am
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eBay Sets PayPal Spinoff
Eddy Elfenbein, June 26th, 2015 at 4:56 pm
Circle your calendars for July 17. That’s when eBay (EBAY) will spinoff PayPal.
For every one share you have of eBay, you’ll get one share of PayPal. It will trade under the symbol PYPL.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) today announced that its board of directors has approved the completion of the previously announced separation of eBay and PayPal into independent publicly traded companies. The separation will occur through a pro rata distribution of all of the stock of eBay’s subsidiary PayPal Holdings, Inc. to eBay stockholders. The distribution remains subject to satisfaction of the conditions described in the preliminary information statement filed with the Form 10, including, but not limited to, obtaining all necessary regulatory approvals, including that of the European Central Bank.
In the distribution, eBay Inc. stockholders will receive one share of PayPal common stock for each share of eBay Inc. common stock held as of the close of business on July 8, 2015, the record date for the distribution. Subject to the satisfaction of the conditions to the distribution, the distribution of PayPal common stock is expected to occur on July 17, 2015. PayPal will not issue fractional shares of its common stock in the distribution. Immediately following the distribution, PayPal will be an independent, publicly traded company and will be listed on the NASDAQ Stock Market under the ticker “PYPL.” eBay will continue to trade on the NASDAQ Stock Market under the ticker “EBAY.”
“eBay and PayPal are two great, special businesses,” said John Donahoe, President and CEO of eBay Inc. “As separate, independent companies, eBay, led by Devin Wenig, and PayPal, led by Dan Schulman, will each have a sharper focus and greater flexibility to pursue future success in their respective global commerce and payments markets. I am confident that eBay and PayPal each have the right leadership team, strategy, structure and operational discipline to create sustainable, long-term value for stockholders and deliver great opportunities and experiences for customers worldwide.”
eBay is a global commerce leader celebrating its 20th anniversary this September. At any given time, approximately 800 million live listings can be shopped on eBay, which connects 25 million active sellers and 157 million active buyers worldwide. About 3 out of every 4 items sold on eBay are new, and 80 percent of merchandise on eBay is sold at fixed price. eBay’s revenue in 2014 was $8.8 billion.
As a new independent publicly traded company, PayPal is the industry leader in digital payments with its open digital payments platform, and is the most trusted digital wallet brand. In 2014, PayPal processed $235 billion in payment volume across 165 million active customer accounts, and handled one billion mobile transactions. PayPal supports 10 million merchants worldwide. Revenue in 2014 was $8 billion.
Beginning on or about July 6, 2015, and continuing up to and through the distribution date, it is expected that there will be two markets in eBay common stock. Shares that trade in the “regular-way” market will be entitled to shares of PayPal common stock distributed pursuant to the distribution; shares that trade in the “ex-distribution” market will trade without an entitlement to shares of PayPal common stock distributed pursuant to the distribution. Shares of eBay in the “ex-distribution” market will trade under the symbol EBAY.wi.
PayPal anticipates that “when-issued” trading will begin on or about July 6, 2015, and will continue up to and through the distribution date. Shares of PayPal in the “when-issued” market will trade under the symbol PYPL.wi. “Regular-way” trading in PayPal’s common stock is expected to begin on July 20, 2015, the first trading day following the completion of the separation (although this date may change if certain conditions are not satisfied by that date, as described in PayPal’s preliminary information statement filed with the Form 10).
eBay stockholders who hold common stock on the record date and decide to sell any of their common stock before the distribution date should consult with their stockbroker, bank or other nominee to understand whether the shares of eBay common stock will be sold with or without the entitlement to PayPal common stock pursuant to the distribution.
No action is required by eBay’s stockholders in order to receive shares of PayPal common stock in the distribution. eBay expects to mail the information statement to all stockholders entitled to receive the distribution of shares of PayPal common stock. The information statement is an exhibit to PayPal’s Registration Statement on Form 10 that describes PayPal, including the risks of owning PayPal common stock, and other details regarding the separation. The distribution of PayPal common stock is subject to the conditions described in the information statement, including, but not limited to, obtaining all necessary regulatory approvals, including that of the European Central Bank.
Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Allen & Company LLC are serving as financial advisors and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen and Katz is serving as legal counsel in connection with the separation and distribution.
CWS Market Review – June 26, 2015
Eddy Elfenbein, June 26th, 2015 at 7:08 am
“Summertime, and the livin’ is easy…” – Porgy & Bess
Indeed it is. We just passed the solstice and Wall Street is already in its summer doldrums. Frankly, there’s not much going on. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed more than 1.25% from 2,105 for 56 straight trading days. We haven’t had a 2% move all year. In fact, we haven’t even had a 1% move in nine weeks. That’s the longest such streak since 1993.
This market’s just dull, dull, dull.
Traders, however, don’t like a dull market. They need something—anything—to worry about. If it’s hard to find this week’s Worry of the Century, well, then they’ll keep looking around until they find something. That’s probably why the news from Greece has gotten more attention than it truly deserves. Once again, let me remind you to not lose one second of time worrying about Greece. Here’s a stat for you: Americans own $5.7 billion worth of Greek stocks. For perspective, that’s about the size of Dunkin Donuts (DNKN), which is the 110th largest stock in the mid-cap index.
In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll talk more about the economy. Until now, I suspected that the economy had improved this quarter. Now that we have more evidence, that case has grown much stronger. GDP for Q2 could be one of the best numbers in the last few years. You heard it here first.
I’m pleased to report that our Buy List is finishing up the first half of this year on a strong note. The Buy List has outpaced the S&P 500 for the last five days in a row. As of Thursday’s close, we’re up 5.20% for the year compared with 2.11% for the S&P 500. That’s a lead of 3.09%, which is our widest lead of the year. Let’s hope this is another market-beating year for us.
Later on, I’ll discuss the blah earnings from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). It wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t that good, either. I’ll fill you in. Also, shares of Ford Motor (F) got a nice boost this week (about time!) thanks to an upgrade from Goldman Sachs. Before I get to that, let’s look at the best personal spending report in six years.
Strongest Consumer Spending in Six Years
Next week, the U.S. economic recovery officially turns six years old. Of course, if you tell that to a lot of folks, they might be surprised that it’s even begun. I certainly know what they mean. Many home values are miles from their highs reached six or seven years ago, and millions of Americans are still looking for work.
This week, the government revised its estimate of Q1 GDP growth. The good news is that it was revised higher. The bad is it was revised up to -0.2%. In other words, the U.S. economy shrunk in real terms during the first three months of the year. So we’re six years into a recovery and we’re still seeing negative growth. That just doesn’t ring right.
This is the third time in the last five years that the first quarter has shown negative growth. Some folks on Wall Street think the government’s methodology might be off. For their part, federal number crunchers are looking into the issue. Being a market watcher, I’m not surprised by the poor GDP report. We already saw the evidence in Q1 earnings reports. Of course, part of that was due to the strong dollar. The rising greenback clearly took a bite out of profits and economic growth.
As a result, some folks were expecting more bad news as we headed into Q2. The Federal Reserve, however, said that it was a passing storm, and the evidence now suggests they were right. On Thursday, the government reported that personal income rose by 0.5% in May, and personal spending jumped by 0.9%. That’s a big number. It was the best report for spending since August 2009. Economists had been expecting an increase of 0.7%.
We won’t get the Q2 GDP report until late July, but we’ve already seen the personal spending reports for April and May. Taken together, they’re point towards a 3.1% annualized increase for personal spending in Q2. I always try to take a reality-based view of the markets and the economy, so trust me when I say that’s good news.
The government also said that jobless claims rose by 3,000. That’s not much. More importantly, they’ve come in below 300,000 for the last 16 weeks in a row. Janet Yellen and her friends at the Fed took a risk by holding out against calls for an immediate rate hike. At the same time, she communicated to the market that a rate increase is coming even if she can’t yet say when. That’s a tough balancing act. You may recall that the jobs report for March was pretty weak. In retrospect, that report appears to be an outlier.
Wall Street is now turning its eyes to next Thursday. That’s when the government will release the jobs report for June. I think we’ll see more of the same: an increase of 250,000 jobs, give or take. But more important than jobs growth is wage growth. Only recently have we had evidence that workers are getting an increase in pay. This trend needs to continue. More pay means more shoppers and that leads to more revenue.
High-Dividend Stocks Have Lagged
Once the Fed starts to increase interest rates, that will have a major shift on the markets. Actually, the shift has already started. The folks at Bespoke Investment Group divided the S&P 500 into 10 deciles sorted by dividend yield.
The decile with the lowest-yielding stocks has been the top performer so far this year while the highest-yielding decile has been the worst. That’s exactly what you’d expect in an environment of higher rates. Utility stocks have lagged while financials have led. On our Buy List, stocks like Wells Fargo (WFC) and Signature Bank (SBNY) have been among our better-performing stocks this year. I also think it’s interesting that some of our higher-yielding stocks like Ford (F) and Microsoft (MSFT) haven’t done that well.(I’ll have more on Ford in a bit.)
Second-quarter earnings will begin in a few weeks. I think we’ll see good numbers, but the open question is how much damage was caused by the U.S. dollar. For Q1, analysts were expecting a bigger impact than we got. But by looking at the recent earnings report from Oracle (ORCL), we can see that it’s still an issue. Oracle said that quarterly revenue dropped by 5%, but in constant currency, it rose by 3%.
I urge investors to focus on high-quality stocks. Stay away from regions like or China or Greece. I’m also wary of some of the recent IPOs we’ve seen. Some of the stocks on the Buy List that look particularly good at the moment are Stryker (SYK), Cognizant Technology (CTSH) and Wabtec (WAB). Boring and dependable is the way to go. Now let’s look at the recent earnings report from Bed Bath & Beyond.
Bed Bath & Beyond Earns 93 Cents per Share
It’s no secret that I’ve gotten a little frustrated with Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). Please don’t take this to mean that it’s a bad stock. But with our investments, I strive to see things as they are instead of how I would like them to be.
On Wednesday, Bed Bath & Beyond reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 93 cents per share. That was one penny below estimates, although it was within the company’s range of 90 to 95 cents per share. Quarterly revenues rose 3.1% to $2.74 billion which matched Wall Street’s expectations. Historically, Q1 is the weakest quarter of the year for the company.
The key number to watch is same-store sales, and that rose by 2.2%. Again, that was within the company’s range of 2% to 3%. For Q2, BBBY sees earnings ranging between $1.18 and $1.23 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.23 per share.
I’m not crazy about this earnings report, but honestly, I was afraid it was going to be worse. A miss of one penny per share isn’t that bad. Traders, naturally, didn’t take it well. The shares dropped as low as $67.50 on Thursday morning, which I thought was excessive. The stock came back a little later in the day to close at $69.23 per share. That’s a loss of 1.6% for the day.
The best news is that the company reiterated their full-year growth forecast. BBBY expects earnings to rise from flat to mid-single-digits. For clarity’s sake, let’s say that’s 0% to 5%. They also expect same-store sales to grow by 2% to 3%. They made $5.07 per share last year, so this year’s guidance works out to $5.07 to $5.32 per share. That means the stock is going for about 13.0 to 13.6 times this year’s earnings. By that measure, it’s hard to say that BBBY is too pricey.
Ideally, when I announce my new buys and sells each December, there shouldn’t be any major surprises. That’s still a long way off, but I will say that BBBY will need to show some improvement until then. Also in the red zone are Moog (MOG-A) and Oracle (ORCL). I’m keeping my Buy Below on BBBY at $75 per share.
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Ford Motor
I’ve been very optimistic on Ford Motor (F) for the last few weeks, and the shares haven’t done much. That’s ok-we play the long game around here. I knew that something would happen eventually.
This week, Goldman Sachs upgraded the automaker to a buy from a hold. At the same time, Goldman said to dump shares of GM (GM). Patrick Archambault said that Ford is hitting its “sweet spot” and that “The key driver is a superior growth outlook at Ford as it starts to see the volume, mix, and pricing benefits from the F-150 launch in [the second half of 2015], as well as still improving positioning in China.”
Ford’s stock, which had been as low as $14.86 last week, got as high as $15.66 this week. I don’t get why the shares are so low. The company hasn’t changed its full-year outlook at all. The stock is going for less than 10 times this year’s earnings, and next year is expected to be much better. Even with the higher price, Ford still yields 3.9%. I get why there’s a headwind against high dividend stocks, but Ford’s plainly cheap here. I rate Ford Motor a buy up to $17 per share.
That’s all for now. On Tuesday, the second quarter comes to an end. I’ll have a summary of the Buy List’s first-half performance on the website. I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, but it’s been a good six months for us against the broader market. Let’s hope the back half goes as well as the front half. On Wednesday, the ISM report comes out along with the ADP jobs report. Then Thursday will be crowded. We’ll get the June jobs report along with initial claims on factory orders. The market will be closed on Friday, July 3 to give us a three-day weekend for Independence Day. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!
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