CWS Market Review – September 6, 2019

“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” – Laurence J. Peter

Wall Street seems to be in a better mood recently, though we can’t say how long that will last. This week, we got some positive economic news. It seems that the recession, which was so certain to arrive any moment, has decided to stay away. At least for the time being.

The S&P 500 gapped above its 50-day moving average, which is a key technical sign. On Thursday, the index closed at its highest level since July 31 (the day of the Fed’s rate cut). Just a few weeks ago, everyone was so nervous. Today, we’re less than 2% away from a new all-time high. I’m reminded of the great Jesse Livermore quote: “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”

In this issue, I want to discuss where we are with the economy and the overall market. It looks like the Fed is about to give us another interest rate cut in a few days. Also in this issue, I’ll look at the recent earnings report from Smucker. The jelly folks disappointed Wall Street—and me. Apparently, their pet-food business hasn’t been so strong. Still, I don’t think the damage was that bad.

I’ll also fill you in on the latest at Church & Dwight, plus I’m raising our Buy Below for Sherwin-Williams. There’s a lot to get to this week, so let’s jump right in and see how the U.S. economy is faring.

Chill Out, We’re Not in a Recession. At Least Not Yet.

The mindset on Wall Street has changed dramatically this year. Only a few months ago, investors expected the Fed to continue raising interest rates. The Fed even said that’s what it was planning to do. Now we’ve had an interest-rate cut—the first in over a decade—and it looks like more are on the way.

The futures market currently thinks there’s a 96% chance the Fed will cut rates at its meeting on September 18. Some folks even thought the Fed would go with a 0.5% cut, but that seems like it’s off the table.

In late July and early August, Wall Street got spooked by more talk of a trade war between the U.S. and China. President Trump had announced more tariffs, and China responded by letting its currency fall. Wall Street got scared. The S&P 500 hadn’t had a drop of more than 2.5% all year. Suddenly we had three such days in less than three weeks. In six trading days, the Volatility Index doubled. Then came the really big news: the yield curve inverted for the first time in 12 years.

In the newsletter, I tried to caution you that the economy isn’t in danger of a recession just yet. Consumer spending is holding up well, and the housing market is slowly expanding. As long as you have those in your corner, the damage can only be so bad.

This week, we got more news that the economy is doing fine. On Thursday, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 56.4. That was above expectations of 53.8, and it was an impressive bounce back from a low reading for July. This week’s durable-goods order was also pretty good, and consumer confidence beat expectations.

Those were the positives. One weak spot was the August ISM Manufacturing Index which came in at 49.1. This is just for the factory segment of the U.S. economy. Any number below 50 means the factory sector is contracting. This is the first time we’ve had a sub-50 number in three years. (If you recall, the economy had a minor pause in 2016, but not enough to fall into recession. In the last issue of CWS Market Review, I talked about the growing gap within the economy. Specifically, consumers are healthy, while many businesses aren’t.

We saw evidence during the recent earnings season. Now that we have some distance from it, I want to discuss the second-quarter earnings season in greater detail because it turned out to be better than it could have been. There was a time when Wall Street was expecting to see a slight earnings decline. The latest numbers from S&P show that earnings for Q2 were up nearly 5% from a year ago. That’s not a lot, but it is positive.

The end of Q3 is not far away, and estimates for Q3 have been getting pared back which is common just ahead of earning season. Wall Street now expects a decline of 0.7%. Once the results are in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another increase.

For all of 2019, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to have earnings of $162 (that’s the index-adjusted number). For 2020, the Street is looking for earnings of $181. That means that the S&P 500 is currently going for 16.4 times next year’s earnings estimate. Assuming the estimate is anywhere close to accurate, that means the market is probably fairly valued. I just don’t see any evidence that we’re in a stock bubble.

When interest rates go so low, that helps the case for higher stock prices. This is for two main reasons. The first is that it cuts interest expenses for companies which makes their debt load easier to bear. The other reason is that it makes bonds tougher competition for stocks. As a result, stocks need to rally to keep up.

This week I did some research looking at how stocks and bonds match up against each other depending on the yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected bond. Basically, 0.50% is the tipping point. Above that, bonds beat stocks. Below that, stocks crush bonds. It makes perfect sense. The yield is currently at 0.01%. In other words, bond yields are so dirt cheap right now that you have no choice but to own stocks.

Within the market, however, is another story. I still think the trend in favor of low volatility and defensive stocks is intact. Investors should pay attention to consumer staples and stocks with rich dividends. A solid stock like AFLAC (AFL) now has a dividend yield that’s 58 basis points higher than the 10-year Treasury. That’s a deal that’s hard to turn down.

Overall, our Buy List is having a very good year (+22.89%!!), but not all our stocks are rallying. Let’s take a look at the soggy earnings report from Smucker.

Smucker’s Earnings Fall Flat

On August 27, JM Smucker (SJM) released its fiscal Q1 earnings data, and it wasn’t good news. Comparable net sales fell 4%, and earnings fell 11% to $1.58 per share. That was 16 cents below expectations.

The company was hurt by poor sales of its pet-foods business. Smucker owns Milk Bone and Meow Mix. In recent years, the company has been working to build up this business. That’s why they bought Ainsworth, but the competition has been stronger than they thought. Management has conceded the difficulties in this sector. Smucker’s coffee business was weak last quarter as well.

“Our first quarter performance fell short of our expectations primarily due to the timing of shipments and deflationary pricing in the coffee and peanut butter categories, as well as competitive activity in the premium-dog-food category,” said Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer.

“We have continued momentum in many key product categories, and we are already taking decisive actions and prioritizing initiatives that strengthen our business. We remain confident in our strategy, which includes a continued focus on our growth imperatives to lead in the best categories, build brands consumers love, and be everywhere, combined with a relentless focus on operating with financial discipline, all of which will enhance shareholder value for the long term.”

Smucker also lowered guidance. Previously, the company was expecting sales to rise by 1% to 2%. Now they expect sales to be flat to -1%. Smucker had been expecting earnings of $8.45 to $8.65 per share. Now they see earnings of $8.35 to $8.55 per share. That’s a reduction of 10 cents at both ends, which is a little more than 1%. That’s actually not so terrible.

After the earnings came out, the shares took an 8% hit, but SJM appears to have stabilized. Still, I’m not happy with these results. This week, I’m dropping my Buy Below on Smucker to $112 per share.

There’s not much in the way of earnings for the next few weeks, but I want you to know what to expect. FactSet (FDS) is due to report its fiscal Q4 results on September 26. Then, RPM International (RPM) will release its fiscal Q1 report on October 2. Those are the only two Buy List earnings reports we’ll see until Q3 earnings season begins in mid-October. The next five weeks will be very quiet on the earnings front.

On Thursday, shares of Church & Dwight (CHD) dropped about 3.3% after an investment firm came out with a negative piece on the consumer-products company. I won’t address the specifics of their allegations, but I’ll note that these things happen every so often. The stock price often takes a hit in the short term. Frankly, I’m not worried about Church & Dwight. CHD remains a buy up to $82 per share.

Before I go, I also want to raise my Buy Below price for Sherwin-Williams (SHW). When the paint people beat earnings in July, I raised my Buy Below price. Sherwin beat estimates by 20 cents per share. The stock started to rally and has continued climbing. On Thursday, SHW reached an intra-day high of $539.64 per share. We now have a 35.8% gain in this stock in 2019. This week, I’m lifting our Buy Below on Sherwin-Williams to $550 per share. I’m very happy with how this stock has bounced back after taking a big tumble late last year. I hope SJM recovers like that.

That’s all for now. The big August jobs report is due out later today. There are a few economic reports to look out for next week. On Wednesday, the government will release the latest report on consumer prices. Inflation has remained tame so far this year. Let’s hope that continues. Perhaps the most important report will come on Friday with the release of the retail-sales report. The last report was pretty good, and consumer spending has held up well. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Posted by on September 6th, 2019 at 7:08 am


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.