The July 4th Rally

Stock investors are familiar with the Santa Claus Rally, and the historical data backs it up. However, there’s another less-known rally that happens around the middle of the year.

From June 29th to July 6th, the Dow has averaged a 1.31% gain. That may sound small but bear in mind that it’s roughly one-sixth of the Dow’s average annual gain, and it’s come in just one week.

The July 4th Rally is the first leg of a larger historical summer rally that extends from June 29th to September 6th. Over that time, the Dow has gained an average of 4.07%.  That’s more than half the Dow’s annual gain coming in just over two months.

By the way, these numbers are based on the Dow’s entire history from 1896 to last November (that’s when I ran the study).


Posted by on June 27th, 2012 at 10:08 am

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