Predicting Disaster Is a Great Business

One of my constant complaints about market commentary is that predictions of doom and gloom are rarely held accountable. Bearish news sells and the scarier the better.

I don’t mind people saying bad things will happen, but I do mind the way that certain (not all) perma-bears are allowed to move the goal posts with their predictions. They key, it seems, is to never give a time horizon for the Apocalypse. That way, you’re never wrong, just a little early.

There’s a mini-industry of folks who predict the most outrageous events, and then when something bad comes along, they claim credit for predicting it.

Sixteen months ago, the BBC had Alessio Rastani on as a guest. I’m still not exactly sure who this clown is, but he said that the market was about to collapse, and he got a huge amount of attention.

Since then, the Dow has gained 3,000 points and no one seems to care how badly Rastani was off the mark. Note that the embedded video has more than 2.2 million views, and likes outnumber dislikes by 14-to-1.

Posted by on February 4th, 2013 at 12:25 pm

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