Q2 GDP = +1.5%

This morning, the government reported on economic growth for the third quarter, and it was a mediocre 1.5%. That was slightly below expectations.

Q2 had impressive GDP growth of 3.9%. I’ve mentioned before that we’ve had individual quarters that were good, but we haven’t been able to get a run of two or three good quarters in a row. So Q2’s good number was followed by a blah one for Q3. One bright spot is that personal consumption expenditures rose by 3.2%.

Q3 was also the end of the government’s fiscal year. We now know that GDP for the fiscal year was $17.803 trillion (this will be revised again and again).

We also have the budget numbers as a percentage of GDP. Last fiscal year, Uncle Sam’s outlays came to 20.71% of GDP. Revenues were 18.25% and the deficit was 2.47%. The deficit as a percentage of GDP is the lowest since 2007. Revenues are the highest since 2001. Spending rose last year after falling for five straight years.

As of September 30, federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP fell to 72.76%. That number has basically stabilized since Q1 2013. After 2018, the debt and deficits are projected to start rising.

Posted by on October 29th, 2015 at 1:44 pm

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