Lowest ISM in Six Years

The monthly ISM report is a pretty good report on the state of the economy. For one thing, it comes out on the first business day of the month. It also isn’t subject to endless revisions. They basically ask manufacturers whether things are better or worse than last month.

Any number above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding. Below 50, it’s shrinking. Today’s report, that is the report for November, came in at 48.6. That’s a big miss. Wall Street had been expecting 50.5.

Is this something to worry about? I wouldn’t say “worry,” but it is concerning. I’ve run the numbers and recessions usually correlate with ISMs below 45, so we’re still in the safe zone. Still, this is the lowest ISM since June 2009.

Posted by on December 1st, 2015 at 11:43 am


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