Personal Income Fell 4.2% in May

The day after we get the GDP report, we usually get the reports on monthly personal income and spending. This is a very unusual time for both. This morning we learned that personal income fell 4.2% in May while personal spending rose by 8.2%.

Last month’s rebound in consumer spending followed spending drops of 6.6% in March and 12.6% in April, when the viral pandemic shuttered businesses, forced millions of layoffs and sent the economy into a recession. Since then, many businesses have reopened, drawing consumers back into shops and restaurants and restoring some lost jobs.

Friday’s Commerce Department report showed that Americans stepped up their spending in May despite a 4.2% decline in personal income, which had soared by 10.8% the previous month. Income had jumped in April on the strength of billions of dollars in support through government payments in the form of unemployment aid as well as one-time $1,200 stimulus checks. In May, those stimulus checks were no longer counted as income for most people.

Besides whatever unemployment aid states are providing to the 30 million jobless Americans, the federal government is providing $600 a week in additional benefits. The federal money has pumped nearly $20 billion a week into the economy and enabled many of the unemployed to stay afloat. But the $600 a week in aid will expire after July, and Trump administration officials have said they oppose an extension.

Without the stimulus checks or an extension of unemployment aid, it’s unclear whether consumers will keep spending freely. In testimony to Congress last week, Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said he thought Congress should consider providing some form of extended unemployment benefits beyond their typical six-month period, on the assumption that joblessness will likely still be quite high by year’s end.

It’s a tough day for the market. The S&P 500 is currently down close to 2%. Today’s movement suggest concerns about the economy. The cyclicals are down the most while the defensive stocks are down the least.

Posted by on June 26th, 2020 at 10:48 am


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