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Morning News: February 26, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2024 at 7:03 amBank of England Builds ‘Proactive Case’ to Regulate Non-Banks
EU Adopts Euro Instant Payments Rules to Take on Visa, Mastercard
What Happened When Saudi Arabia Took its Money and Influence to Miami
Treasury Markets Are Losing Their Shock Absorber
Stocks Take a Breather at Start of Data-Rich Week
When High-Yield Savings Accounts Come With an Asterisk
China’s Quant Clampdown Risks Damaging Fragile Markets for Years
Jack Ma-Backed Ant Outbids Citadel Securities for Credit Suisse’s China JV
Goldman, Morgan Stanley Backstop Riskiest Slices of CLOs
Berkshire Set to Close In on $1 Trillion Valuation After Results
Risk Models Behind World’s Best Hedge Fund Strategy Are Getting a Lot Harder to Crack
Genesis Faces Unlikely Bankruptcy Foe: Its Own Parent Company
Cathie Wood Sells Into Nvidia Frenzy Again, Cuts TSMC Stake
AI Is Exploding Data Center Energy Use. A Google-Created Technique May Help
Top Global Energy Traders Face Multi-Billion Cash Quandary
AT&T Will Give $5 to Customers Hit By Cellphone Network Outage
Intuitive Machines Sinks on Concerns Lander Tipped on Moon
Tech Splits Ad Companies’ Fortunes in Two
BYD’s New $233,450 EV Supercar to Rival Ferrari, Lamborghini
Li Auto Forecasts Softer Sales After Posting Surge in Quarterly Revenue, Profit
Norfolk Southern Seeks to Thwart Activist With New Board Picks
Temu’s U.S. Entry Is an Orange Flag for Etsy
Adidas Is Dropping a New Batch of Controversial Yeezy Shoes on Digital Channels
Cigarettes Are Losing Their Hold on the Nicotine Fix
Giving Big, a California Couple Gets Gratitude and Scrutiny
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Morning News: February 23, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 23rd, 2024 at 7:02 amOil Market Gets a Russian Lesson: Sell on the Sound of Cannons
Venezuela Calls in Oil Debt It Once Traded Away for Literal Beans
China’s Central Bank Tries to Catch Markets Off Guard With Surprise Easing
China Home Prices Slide, Increasing Pressure on Beijing
France Will Cut Spending as It Sees a Weaker Economy Ahead
German Business Sentiment Brightens Slightly, Despite Signs of Recession
ECB Can Afford Less Restrictive Stance From Summer, Simkus Says
U.S. to Impose Sanctions on More Than 500 Russian Targets
The Political Failure of Bidenomics
Top Fed Officials Bolster Case for Patient Stance on Rate Cuts
Wave of Cash Seen Washing Into Credit as Investors Seek Duration
Global Equity Funds See Outflows Amid Inflation Concerns
Record World Stocks Leave Bonds in Gloom
Fidelity Manager Dumps Nearly All Treasuries on Growth Optimism
What Companies Need to Know When Accounting for Leap Day
Student Loan Borrowers in Texas Get Biggest Share of Biden’s $1.2 Billion Forgiveness Plan
Nvidia Set to Top $2 Trillion Valuation in First for Chipmakers
Allianz Boosts Shareholder Returns After Profit Nearly Doubles
Deutsche Telekom Expects Adjusted Earnings Growth to Pick Up
Grab Targets Organic Growth, AI Tools in Path to Profitability
Are You Bleeding Money on Car Insurance? So Are Insurers
Vice’s New Owners Prepare to Slash What’s Left of Its Work Force
It’s a Great Deal, Before the ‘Drip Pricing’
When Science Class Is in a Former Macy’s
Émigrés Are Creating an Alternative China, One Bookstore at a Time
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Morning News: February 22, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 22nd, 2024 at 7:04 amIran-Backed Houthis Prepare for Long Battle With US in Red Sea
New Freighters Could Ease Red Sea Cargo Disruptions
Japan Shares Open New Chapter as Nikkei Reclaims Its 1989 Peak
Quant Models Went Haywire as Chinese Stocks Crashed and Rallied
Leaked Files Show the Secret World of China’s Hackers for Hire
Mexican Economy Stalled as High Interest Rates Damp Demand
Why Huge European Central Bank Losses Matter
Many Americans Believe the Economy Is Rigged
T-Bills Without Tax Bills? This Fund Says It Cracked the Code
Warburg Pincus Hands Cash Back to Investors as Rivals Struggle
Goldman Sachs’s Chief Economist Has Nailed Big Calls. Here’s His Next One
KKR’s CRE Deal Pipeline Heats Up Amid ‘Year of Transactions’
Tech M&A Raises Fears Over Software Pricing, Bundling for CIOs
How Capital One’s $35 Million Discover Merger Could Affect Consumers
Nvidia To Top Meta Record With Nearly $250 Billion Value Jump
Nvidia Is a Must-Buy. Or Is It?
Lenovo Snaps Revenue Declines, Bets On AI-Powered Tech
The New Hot Climate Investment Is Heat Itself
Home Sales Likely Rebounded in January After Last Year’s Sharp Decline
Why Car Insurance Rates Are Soaring
Instagram’s Uneasy Rise as a News Site
One Business Decision Made the World’s Losing Battle With Malaria Even Tougher
Nestlé Warns on Sales Growth as Inflation Continues to Bite
Shoppers Want Uggs and Hokas. The Brands Are Boosting Growth for Their Owner
A Billionaire Bought a Chunk of Manchester United. Now He Has to Fix It.
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Morning News: February 21, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 21st, 2024 at 7:04 amChina Tightens Grip on Stocks With Net Sale Ban at Open, Close
HSBC’s Profit Sinks on $3 Billion Charge at Chinese Bank
US Citizens Become Collateral Damage in Global Sanctions Fight
TSX Seen Reaching Record High In 2025 If Rate Cuts Begin
Are We in a Productivity Boom? For Clues, Look to 1994
Wall Street Brokers Are Coming for the Hot Retail-Options Trade
Nvidia’s High-Stakes Earnings Moment Has Entire Market on Edge
Capital One’s $35 Billion Discover Deal Hinges on Playing Consumer Champion
Health Care AI Startup Raises $60 Million From General Catalyst, Thrive, GV
Amazon Is Joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average
CVC Adds to Fundraising Spree With $6.8 Billion Asia Fund
Private Equity Payouts at Major Firms Plummet 49% in Two Years
US Mortgage Rates Jump Above 7% for First Time Since December
It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income
Will Food Prices Stop Rising Quickly? Many Companies Say Yes.
Biden Cancels $1.2 Billion of Federal Student Loans
Biden’s EV Dreams Are a Nightmare for Tesla and the US Car Industry
Volkswagen Leans on Electric Vehicles and Nostalgia to Grow in U.S.
Thailand, Indonesia Ramp Up Incentives to Boost EV Demand
As Hybrids Become More Popular, Their Green Benefits Are Questioned
Unhappy Fliers Cost Brazil’s Airlines Millions With Easy-to-Win Lawsuits
Glencore Earnings Plummet From Record Highs as Energy Prices Subside
BAE Systems Forecasts Another Year of Sales Growth Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Rio Tinto Annual Net Profit Down 19%, Dividend Pared on Commodity-Price Fall
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CWS Market Review – February 20, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 20th, 2024 at 6:10 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
Lyft Soars 67% on Typo
After the close of trading last Tuesday, the ride-sharing company, Lyft (LYFT), released its quarterly earnings report. In it, the company said that it expects its profit margin to improve by 500 basis points.
Wow! In after-hours trading, the stock soared as much as 67%.
There was, however, one teeny-tiny problem: they meant to say 50 basis points, not 500.
A spokesperson for the company attributed the correction to a clerical error.
Oh!
Cue Emily Litella, “nevermind.”
The shares quickly fell back to Earth. This is a good reminder that the market is made up of people, and it’s subject to all the faults and foibles people have.
We have lots of fancy models that try to explain a process that can be highly irrational, or simply misinformed.
This is also a good reason why I’m leery of stop orders, especially for long-term investors. You can easily be stopped out of a good stock for a bad reason.
By the way, Lyft really did have a great quarter, and the stock is up, but much of the good news has been lost due to an embarrassing typo. It’s amazing how one wrong key stroke can duck things up.
Could the Fed Resume Hiking Rates?
In recent issues, I’ve talked about the market’s change of heart regarding what the Fed will do with interest rates. Not that long ago, the market thought the Fed would be cutting interest rates by now. Lately, it looks like the Fed won’t be cutting rates at its meetings in March or May. In fact, the June meeting may soon look doubtful.
What’s going on? Into all this jumps former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers who said the Fed may even raise interest rates. Specifically, Summers said, “There’s a meaningful chance—maybe it’s 15%—that the next move is going to be upwards in rates, not downwards.”
I’m not fully in Summers’s court just yet, but it’s an interesting take. Summers said that Wall Street economists had been expecting that plunging housing costs would hold back overall inflation, but that hasn’t happened.
Economists like to look at the “core rate” of inflation which excludes food and energy prices. There’s also the “super core rate” which is the cost of services except energy and housing. The super core rate has been getting a lot of attention lately.
This is important because it makes us focus on the issue of how much inflation is driven by wages, which is another way of asking, how much of inflation does the Fed control?
What happened is that during Covid, employees finally held the upper hand. It was a tight labor market and wages started to improve. Those increases were largely passed along in the form of higher prices for services, and not so much for goods.
I’m borrowing this example from the WSJ but it explains the phenomenon well. Let’s compare haircuts and televisions. The former is a service that’s driven by wages. The latter is a good and less dependent on wages.
The prices for haircuts are rising while TV prices are falling. It’s like two separate economies but it’s really showing us how much prices are influenced by wages. The January CPI report showed that super core prices rose by 0.85%. Summers is making the point that the prices that most concern the Fed are far from under control.
Walmart Beats the Street
Last week’s retail sales report came in below expectations. This morning, we got another retail sales report but this time, it wasn’t from the government, Instead, Walmart (WMT) released its earnings report.
The company is so big that its earnings report is effectively a report on Americans’ spending behavior. Walmart said that its quarterly revenue increased by 6% to $173.39 billion. That works out to about $1.3 million every minute.
Today’s report was for the key holiday spending months of November, December and January. For the quarter, Walmart earned $1.80 per share which was 15 cents higher than Wall Street’s consensus. The shares jumped a little over 3% in today’s trading.
Walmart had held up well during the recent (and perhaps, still ongoing) bout of inflation. As any shopper knows, Walmart is relentless in its quest to keep prices as low as possible. Last quarter, Walmart was helped by soaring e-commerce revenue. Global e-commerce sales rose 23%.
Going forward, Walmart said it expects sales growth of 4% to 5% for its fiscal Q1 (ending April 30), and earnings of $1.48 to $1.56 per share. For the year, Walmart expects earnings of $6.70 to $7.12 per share. That means the stock is going for about 25-26 times earnings. In my opinion, that’s too high.
While other companies have been holding back, Walmart has been expanding and upgrading its locations. The company said that it will raise the average income for store managers to $128,000 per year.
Shares of Walmart will split 3-for-1 after the market closes on Friday. This will be the retailer’s first stock split in 25 years. In the 25 years prior to that, Walmart split its stock nine times, all of them were 2-for-1.
According to the largest retailer on the planet, shoppers are plenty active.
Capital One Buys Discover for $35 Billion
“What’s in your wallet?” Apparently, Discover Financial Services.
A major acquisition was announced today in the credit card space. Capital One Financial (COF) said it’s buying Discover Financial Services (DFS) for $35 billion. The deal is all cash.
Here’s how the deal works. Discover shareholders will get 1.0192 shares of COF for each DFS share they own. That’s a nice 26% premium for Discover based on Friday’s close.
Once the deal is done, Capital One shareholders will own 60% of the company, while Discover shareholders will own the other 40%. The companies expect the deal to close later this year or early in 2025.
There’s still the issue of getting regulatory approval. The government doesn’t look too kindly on mergers of industry leaders, especially in industries that aren’t wildly popular with consumers.
When deals like this are announced, the market likes to poke around at what might be next. This time, I’m skeptical because there doesn’t appear to be an obvious candidate. Also, I suspect that getting the Feds to sign off on this deal may be harder than they think.
The big earnings report for tomorrow will come after the close when Nvidia (NVDA) reports its earnings. Nvidia has become the most prominent AI trade. The company recently surpassed Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) in total market value.
I guess you can say that expectations are high as the shares have soared 450% over the last 16 months. Also, Nvidia has crushed its last three earnings reports. The company has exceeded expectations by (in order) 18%, 29% and 19%. Nvidia has really become the marquee name of the Magnificent 7 gang.
For tomorrow, Wall Street expects earnings of $4.63 per share. Between you and me, I think that really means at least $5 per share. Wall Street is expecting Nvidia’s sales to rise by 240%. Of course, a large amount of those sales are going to Microsoft, Google and Amazon. Last quarter, Nvidia’s gross margin was 75%.
This is a good case of expectations being so high that almost any number will be a disappointment. Nvidia closed down today by 4.3%.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.
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Morning News: February 20, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 20th, 2024 at 7:01 amChinese Banks Slash a Key Lending Rate as Economy Falters
China Freezes Accounts of Quant Fund After It Dumped Stocks
Spicy Food and Dental Implants: Low Prices Lure Hong Kongers to China
German Property Lender PBB and the Crisis-Hit US Market
Markets Start to Speculate If the Next Fed Move Is Up, Not Down
Bill Ackman Rockets Up Best-Paid Hedge Fund List by Doing Very Little
Pursuing ‘American Dynamism,’ Andreessen Horowitz Ups Its Game in DC
Two Rothschild Bank Clans Fight Over Clients, Power and the Family Name
US Supreme Court Weighs Bid to Challenge Debit Card ‘Swipe Fee’ Rule
Capital One to Buy Discover for $35 Billion in Year’s Biggest Deal
Unpacking the Washington Math for a Big Payment Deal
Walmart Gains on Strong Results, Deal to Buy TV Maker Vizio
TikTok Is Subject of E.U. Inquiry Over ‘Addictive Design’
Inside the Funding Frenzy at Anthropic, One of A.I.’s Hottest Start-Ups
Air Liquide Net Profit Rises But Misses Expectations
Super Micro Short Sellers Notch $1.2 Billion as Shares Tumble
InterContinental Hotels to Return Up to $1 Billion to Shareholders
Bayer Cuts Dividend by 95% as It Wrestles With Roundup Woes
Gene Therapy Makers Struggle to Find Patients for Miracle Cures
Fresenius Medical Care Net Profit Rises on Cost Savings
Ozempic Hype House Backfires in WeightWatchers Brand Misstep
How an $18 Big Mac Meal Became a Symbol for Economic Anxiety — and What That Means for Democrats
Culinary Hubs Put a Twist on Home Cooking
Can the Olympics Rejuvenate One of France’s Poorest Corners?
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Morning News: February 19, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 19th, 2024 at 7:05 amRussian Oil Refining Falls Further in Wake of Drone Attacks
Polymetal International to Sell Russian Business for $3.69 Billion
How War in Europe Boosts the U.S. Economy
Ukraine’s Allies Are Gaming Out a World in Which the US Retreats
Zambian Kwacha Turns World Beater With Help From Central Bank
Brazil’s Economic Activity Caps 2023 With Better-Than Expected Growth
Chinese Travelers Hit the Road but Pinch Their Pennies
China Stocks’ Insipid Reopen Adds Pressure on Beijing to Do More
China Central Bank Leaves Key Policy Rate Unchanged Under Shadow of Federal Reserve
Systemic Risk Concerns Grow Among Money Managers as Real Estate Woes Cause Turmoil
Cracks Are Emerging in Central Bank Synchronicity
Can the Fed Increase the Rate of Interest Charged to Taylor Swift?
Goldman Lifts S&P 500 Target With Profit Optimism to Drive Rally
Wall Street’s Moelis Bet Big on the Middle East. Now He’s Cashing In
America’s Oil Power Might Be Near Its Peak
The War Over Burying Nuclear Waste in America’s Busiest Oil Field
Nature Has Value. Could We Literally Invest in It?
More Wall Street Firms Are Flip-Flopping on Climate. Here’s Why
Nvidia Earnings Are Coming. It’s Time to Think About AI Chip Competition
US to Award $1.5 Billion to GlobalFoundries in Chips Act Grant
Plans to Expand U.S. Chip Manufacturing Are Running Into Obstacles
EU Reportedly Set to Fine Apple 500 Million Euros Amid Antitrust Crackdown
Anglo American Platinum Could Cut Around 3,700 Jobs in Restructuring
China’s JD.com Versus US’s Elliott in Battle for UK’s Currys
BYD’s Shenzhen-Listed Shares Rise on Buyback Plan, More Luxury-Model Launches
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Morning News: February 16, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 16th, 2024 at 7:03 amRussia’s Central Bank Governor Nabiullina on Rates, Inflation
Guyana Is Trying to Keep Its Oil Blessing From Becoming a Curse
Stolen Substation Shows Scale of South Africa’s Power Crisis
Droughts, Heatwaves Could Dent Spanish Banks’ Capital
World’s Major Economies Fall Behind U.S.
America’s Economy Slowed—It Probably Won’t Stumble
Biden Adviser Says Soft Landing Helped by Public-Spending Boost
I.R.S. Commissioner Warns Budget Cuts Would Add to Deficit
Stocks Climb Before PPI Report in Data-Driven Week
Coinbase Shares Surge After Bitcoin ETF Euphoria Helps Return to Profitability
Banks Are Piling Back Into Everything From Mortgage Debt to CLOs
Hedge Fund Investors Are Getting More Demanding About Charges
NatWest Shares Rise After Results Beat Despite Mixed Outlook
Swiss Re Net Profit Surged on Property-and-Casualty Strength
Hindenburg Report Throws Swiss Fintech Temenos Into Turmoil
Deutsche Bank Ends Prized Covid Custom: Four-Day Weekends From Home
Ex-Goldman Analyst Jailed for 22 Months for Insider Trading
As Home Insurance Bills Go Up, Owners’ Coverage Is Going Down
The Antitrust Enforcers Aimed at Big Tech. Then Came the Backlash
In Big Election Year, A.I.’s Architects Move Against Its Misuse
Amazon Argues Labor Board Is Unconstitutional
Chinese EV Maker BYD Exploring Mexico Factory as Entry to U.S. Market
How Paramount Became a Cautionary Tale of the Streaming Wars
Nike to Cut 2% of Workforce as Sportswear Giant Seeks Savings
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Morning News: February 15, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 15th, 2024 at 7:03 amJapan Loses Its Spot as World’s Third-Largest Economy as It Slips Into Recession
UK in Recession: Toxic or Technicality?
What a Viral Post on Giraffes Says About China’s Fed-Up Investors
ECB Policymakers Push Back on Hasty Rate Cuts Even as Inflation Falls
ECB’s Lagarde Hopes to Join Economists’ ‘Tribe’ She Criticised
Tech-Led U.S. ‘Exceptionalism’ Underlined
Dozens of Banks Rapidly Piled Up Commercial Property Loans
Temenos Sinks Most in 12 Years as Hindenburg Reveals Short
Feud Erupts at $14 Billion Credit Manager Over Lucrative Stake
Michael Burry Adds to China Big Tech Wager as Stock Rout Deepens
Biden Faces More Pressure From Environmentalists to Block Steel Merger
Tata Group Considering Spinoff of Battery Business Agratas
Volkswagen Eyes March Delivery for Cars Delayed at U.S. Ports
US Cancels Multibillion-Dollar Classified Military Satellite Program
Airbus Pulls Further Ahead of Boeing in Global Plane Rivalry
SpaceX Is Now Incorporated in Texas, Elon Musk Says
Three Lessons From a Surprisingly Resilient Job Market
Layoffs in 2024: A List of Companies Cutting Jobs This Year
Unpredictable Power Surges Threaten US Grid — And Your Home
Have Uber and Lyft Finally Found a Way to Make Ride-Sharing Profitable?
WaWa Billionaires Bet on Taking the Convenience Chain South
No Big Consumer Price Declines Are in Sight
Kraft Mac and Cheese Sales Take a Hit After Cuts to Food Stamps
Now Hibernating: Chocolate Chip Ice Cream
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Morning News: February 14, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 14th, 2024 at 7:02 amThis Arctic Circle Town Expected a Green Energy Boom. Then Came Bidenomics
Why US Economy is Powering Ahead of Europe’s
Powell, Biden Get No Love From Inflation Report
‘No Landing’ Scenarios Swirl as Markets Recoil
The Errors Tour: How the Pros Bungled the End of Zero Interest Rates
The Most Costly Investment Mistake You Can Make Is Easy to Avoid
US Banks, Private Equity Firms Compete to Finance Debt-Backed Deals
Ratings Firms Quizzed Banks After NYCB, Fueling Worries
ABN AMRO Shares Gain After Capital Update, 4Q Beat
The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here
In Southwest Florida, High Home Insurance Rates Are Driving Away Would-Be Buyers
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Climbs to a Two-Month High of 6.87%
Technology Is Forcing Closer Collaboration Between CIOs, CFOs
Can America Turn a Productivity Boomlet Into a Boom?
Eurozone Industrial Production Unexpectedly Expands Amid Signs Recovery for Sector
Capgemini Hikes Dividend After Boost in Profit
Thyssenkrupp Shares Dive 10% After Profit, Sales Guidance Cuts
Shell Lowers LNG Growth View as Demand Set to Peak in 2040s
Elon Musk’s Big Tesla Factory in Mexico Taps Chinese Suppliers, Stoking DC Fears
Uber Unveils $7 Billion Buyback Plan in First for Company
A ‘Clerical Error’ in Lyft Outlook Triggered 67% Stock Jump
Free Yoga and Meditation at Work Don’t Seem to Benefit Workers, Research Finds. But Better Pay Might
Grover Is Now a Reporter. Journalists Aren’t Optimistic
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