CWS Market Review – April 15, 2025

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The stock market has seriously chilled out over the last few days. In fact, we’re not that far (-2.3%) from where the market was on March 13, after the S&P 500’s first leg downward.

If some Rumpelstiltskin investor had fallen asleep one month ago and had awoken today, they’d probably conclude that this has been an uneventful four weeks.

We aren’t seeing the big 3%, 5% or even 10% days that we saw not too long ago. For the last two days, the S&P 500 has closed up or down by less than 1%, and today’s change (-0.17%) is the smallest daily move in three weeks.

I like to track the VIX (^VIX) which is the volatility index. Some investors like to call it the “Fear Index,” which is an apt name. Last week, the VIX jumped from 30 to 60. That’s a huge increase, but earlier today, the VIX fell back to 28.

Are we in the clear? Not a chance. Or rather, even if we are, it’s safest to act as if we’re not. The problem for investors is that the market is still beholden to tariff politics. That means that any intemperate threat coming from the White House can upend the market. Morgan Stanley said to expect to be fooled “many more times” regarding tariffs. I think that’s right.

The simple fact is that the S&P 500 is still below its 200-day moving average. Historically, that’s been a trouble area for the market. The index needs to rally more than 6% from here to be above its 200-DMA.

The good news is that we now have other events to share the headlines with the tariff news. The most prominent is that Q1 earnings season is underway and that’s taken some of the spotlight off of tariff politics.

Remember When the Market Doubled in 18 Months?

One of the rules of thumb on Wall Street is that dramatic markets tend to be symmetrical. That’s a fancy way of saying that sharp drops are often followed by sharp recoveries, and long, drawn-out bears are followed by long, drawn-out bulls.

A good example of this came during the Covid bear in 2020. The stock market peaked on February 19. Interestingly, it peaked on the same day this year.

This was one of the fastest drops in Wall Street history. Thirty-three days later, the S&P 500 had shed 33%. But the bulls came roaring back (thanks to a lot of help from Uncle Sam).

By June 8, the market had soared 44% off its low, and by August, the S&P 500 closed at a new record high. It took less than six months to erase one of the most brutal bear markets on record. In fact, it didn’t stop there. It took 18 months for the S&P 500 to double from its low.

Of course, this behavior is only a rule of thumb. We know well that the market gods love to play with our emotions. What I’ve noticed is that when the market is at its low, no one thinks it is. Instead, everyone’s waiting for the next downward move which never comes. As Peter Lynch said, “I’m always fully invested. It’s a great feeling to be caught with your pants up.”

An Early Look at Q1 Earnings

Let’s take an early look at how the Q1 earnings season is playing out. So far, 72.4% of the companies that have reported have beaten their earnings estimates, 69% have topped their revenue estimates. A total of 55.2% have beaten on both.

The S&P 500 is currently tracking at 6.76% earnings growth for Q1. That’s down from 7.03% from one month ago. The good news is that banks are doing a little better than we expected. Expected earnings for financials have been bumped up to 2.30% from 0.87% last month. The weak spot is energy. Last month, earnings for energy sector entities were expected to be down by 16.55%. Now it’s looking like energy’s earnings will be down by 18.87%.

I also noticed that in the earnings calls, several CEOs had bleak outlooks on the economy. A recent poll of more than 300 CEOS found that 62% see a recession coming within the next six months. That’s up from 48% in March.

It’s no secret what CEOs are concerned with. Three-fourths of them said the tariffs will hurt their businesses this year.

Larry Finke, the head honcho over at BlackRock (BLK) said that we’re very close to a recession, “if not in a recession now.” Fink said, “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty.”

BlackRock is one of the behemoths of Wall Street. The firm currently has $11.58 trillion in assets under management. On Friday, BlackRock said it made $11.30 per share for Q1. That beat Wall Street’s consensus of $10.14 per share. The problem was revenue. BlackRock had $5.28 billion in revenue which was $60 million short of Wall Street’s consensus.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a very good quarter. For Q1, the big bank made $14.12 per share compared with estimates of $12.35 per share. That’s an increase of 15% over last year. Revenue rose 6% to $15.06 billion. That topped estimates by $250 million.

Bank of America (BAC) also posted good results. For Q1, BAC made 90 cents per share. That was eight cents more than estimates. Revenue was $27.51 billion. Expectations were for $26.99 billion. Bank of America said its net interest income was helped by lower deposit costs and higher-yielding investments.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q1 earnings of $4.91 per share on revenue of $46.01 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $4.61 per share on revenues of $44.11 billion.

The big winner was equities trading. JPM’s revenue there jumped 48% to $3.8 billion. That beat expectations by $560 million.

CEO Jamie Dimon was optimistic for his bank, but like the other CEOs, he was far more cautious on the overall economy. Dimon said, “The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’ ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility.”

Morgan Stanley (MS) said that its Q1 earnings rose 26% to $2.60 per share for Q1. That beat the Street by 40 cents per share. Equity trading soared 45% to $4.13 billion. That was $840 million more than expected.

Earlier today, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) said it made $2.77 per share for Q1. That was 17 cents more than estimates. JNJ’s sales rose 2.4% to $21.89 billion. That beat estimates of $21.58 billion.

The company increased its guidance. JNJ now sees 2025 sales ranging between $91 billion and $91.8 billion. The company sees earnings coming in between $10.50 and $10.70 per share.

JNJ also hiked its quarterly dividend from $1.24 to $1.30 per share. The new dividend is payable on June 10, with a record date of May 27. This is the 63rd year in a row that JNJ has increased its dividend. That’s one of the longest such streaks on Wall Street.

There are few things to look out for this week. Tomorrow morning, Abbott Labs (ABT) will report its Q1 earnings. This will be our first Buy List stock to report. The stock is up close to 12% this year.

For this year, Abbott sees its earnings ranging between $5.05 and $5.25 per share. For Q1, Abbott sees earnings between $1.05 and $1.09 per share. Wall Street has split the difference and expects $1.07 per share.

Tomorrow we’ll also get reports on retail sales and industrial production, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago.

The Fed doesn’t meet again for another three weeks, and it’s doubtful they’ll make a move at their May meeting. It will be interesting to hear what Powell has to say, especially about tariffs.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on April 15th, 2025 at 6:11 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.