Morning News: June 12, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 12th, 2026 at 7:02 am

The World Is Draining Oil Reserves, Raising Pressure for a Peace Deal

Ships Stranded by War Face Costly Dilemma: Wait It Out or Risk Attack

The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances

Germany’s Bundesbank Cuts Growth Expectation, Raises Inflation Forecast as War Drags On

ECB Stands Out With First G7 Rate Hike Since Start of Iran War

Switzerland’s Radical Proposal on Immigration: Cap the Population

How a Tiny British Island Fell Into an International Gambling Scandal

The Market Is Giddy. Is Your Portfolio at Risk?

Private Credit Dividends Look Less Secure as Cash Coverage Thins

Vanguard Ends BlackRock’s 20-Year Run Atop US ETF Market

A $600 Billion Experiment Kicks Off at the Biggest US Pension Fund

PPI Confirms CPI: Energy Shock, Not a Trigger For a Rate Hike

A Libertarian Case Against Former Rep. Thomas Massie

Congress Shouldn’t Import Europe’s App Store Mistakes

Latest AI Doomers Imagine How Europe ‘Slides Into Irrelevance’

Carney’s Middle Powers Race to Thwart US-China Dominance of AI

The Next US-China AI Battle Is Over Compute — and China Is Spending Big

SpaceX Sets Milestone With World’s Largest I.P.O., Furthering Musk’s Power

Hedge Funds Sold Broader Tech Ahead of SpaceX IPO, JPMorgan Data Shows

SpaceX IPO Draws at Least $5 Billion Order From BlackRock

How SpaceX Stacks Up to the World’s Largest I.P.O.s

Jim Chanos Is Worth Hearing on SpaceX, Too

SpaceX-Anthropic-OpenAI Is a Cocktail With a Hangover

The Joy of Missing Out on SpaceX’s I.P.O.

Everyone Loves Chinese Cars, Except the Chinese

Trump’s War on Science Is Being Waged in the Fine Print

Can Smartphones Help Explain the Drop in Birth Rates?

How Texas Ranchers Are Fighting a Long-Eradicated Cattle Killer

The Wearable Boom Is Real. The Investment Case Is Murkier.

Gary Lineker Is Worried About the Trump World Cup

Haiti’s Football Team Made the World Cup, But Its Fans Aren’t Welcome

Bad Bunny’s Sold-Out Shows Illuminate Spain’s New Lifeline: Immigrants

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Morning News: June 11, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 11th, 2026 at 7:02 am

The Iran War Is All About Psychology: Trump’s and Khamenei’s

ECB Becomes First Major Central Bank to Raise Rates Since Inflation Resurgence

Europe Raises Interest Rates as War Stokes Inflation

Being on US Sanctions List Not Sufficient to Refuse EU Bank Account, Court Rules

Developing World’s ‘Complex’ Debt Could Raise Costs, Stall Restructurings, Lazard Says

Inflation Heated Up to 4.2% in May, as Energy Costs Continued to Bite

Trump Says ‘I Love the Inflation’ As US Prices Rise At Fastest Rate In Three Years

Trump Picks Capital One’s Brian Johnson to Head US Consumer Finance Watchdog

Social Security Is a Political Concept. There’s No Looming “Insolvency”

‘We’re Traders, Not Nuns’: Embattled Brazil Hedge-Fund Plots Turnaround

Drahi Is Squeezing His US Creditors Harder Than Ever

Gen Z’s Latest Career Flex: A Boardroom Seat

You Have No Idea What a Trillion Dollars Is—and We Have Proof

Why It’s Nearly Impossible to Build a Robot Without China

A Weird, New Rain Machine Takes Aim at Passing Clouds

US Nuclear Power’s Technological ‘Rebirth’ Will Take Some Time

How the Nordics Are Emerging As the World’s AI Infrastructure Superpower

Retail Traders Dump Big Tech to Raise ‘Dry Powder’ to Buy SpaceX

The S&P 500’s SpaceX Snub Is a Public Service

How Tesla’s Stock Listing in 2010 Enabled SpaceX’s I.P.O.

Can SpaceX Defy A.I. Gravity?

Cathie Wood’s Latest Big Bet on Elon Musk Is About to Pay Off

What the SpaceX IPO Means for This Texas Border Town

A.I. Chatbot Helps a $100 Thrift Store Painting Sell for Over $250,000

Oracle Shares Tumble Amid Pricey Data-Center Build-Out

Dana to Combine With Eaton’s Mobility Business in $5.1 Billion Deal

Nike’s Savior CEO Is Grappling With a 45% Stock Slump

This Isn’t the Soccer America Imagined

Why Doesn’t China Have a Lionel Messi?

How Cracker Barrel’s CEO Saved Her Job by Abandoning Her Own Strategy

In the Protein Era, Even He-Man Is Hawking Supplements

Ben & Jerry’s Co-Founder Says Brand Being ‘Destroyed’ by Magnum

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Morning News: June 10, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 10th, 2026 at 7:09 am

Iraq Boosts Oil Exports as More Tankers Transit Strait of Hormuz

Stocks Sink and Oil Rises After Wave of Strikes Across Middle East

El Niño Emerges in Pacific, Raising Heat and Crop Risks

Why the World Is Bracing for a Rare ‘Super’ El Niño

Governments Sell Bonds at Record Pace as Spending Soars

Japanese Yen Falls After BOJ Gov. Ueda Hospitalized

Europe Has Learned Silence Can Be Golden in Trump Trade Spats, Top EU Legislator Says

Ending Immigration Isn’t the Answer for Switzerland — or the US

Searching for America’s Missing Workers, Old and Young

Social Security at Risk for Cuts by 2032, Unless Congress Acts

Rich Americans Should Welcome Higher Capital-Gains Taxes

Markets Brace for an Inflation Surprise

US Inflation Matches Expectations While Core CPI Softens

Our Stock Market Is Broken

When a World Cup Team Loses, Its Country’s Stock Market Also Goes Down. Here’s The Weird Reason Why

America at 250: The Greatest Compounding Machine In History

It’s Time to End a Retirement Double Standard

Apollo’s Kleinman Says Private Equity Lost Its Way on Deals

Now Is a Good Time to Buy Into America’s Mega Utility Merger

Billionaires’ Billions Are Increasing Faster Than Ever

Billionaires Are Fighting Their Heirs for Control Beyond the Grave

Musk Looks to an Army of Loyalists to Help Make Him a Trillionaire

19 Things to Know About Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX’s President

SpaceX Owns a Real Business That Makes Big Money

How Much Will SpaceX Actually Cost Your Index Fund?

In A.I. Blunder, More Than 34,000 Instagram Accounts Were Attacked

Cyera, a Cybersecurity Start-up for the A.I. Era, Raises $600 Million

Forget Coders. The Real A.I. Threat Is in the Back Office.

Credit Agricole CEO Says AI Anxiety Must Come to an End

Being Honest About Low Inventory Can Pay Off for Online Retailers

The Knicks’ Name Traces Back to a 200-Year-Old Publicity Stunt

Wedding Inflation Has Desperate Brides Paying Witches for Perfect $100,000 Days

The Latest Snack Innovations Are Basically Just Creamsicles and Chex Mix

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CWS Market Review – June 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 9th, 2026 at 7:28 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Last Tuesday, the stock market closed at an all-time high. We’ve gotten used to new highs, but what changed was what came after that on Thursday and Friday. That’s when many large-cap tech stocks, semiconductors in particular, got hit very hard. Many semis fell more than 10% in one day.

What caused the semi rout? As usual, it was a combination of factors. For one, valuations are quite high. Also, these stocks have been very popular so some pushback shouldn’t be surprising.

The market was also spooked by Broadcom’s earnings. Actually, the earnings were quite good, but it was disappointing guidance that scared investors.

Semiconductor Stocks Plunge

It sounds almost comical, but the market was upset that Broadcom didn’t increase its revenue guidance for this year and next year. In other words, keeping the guidance the same is seen, in practical terms, as a downgrade. That should tell you something about the current mood on Wall Street.

The stock market rebounded some on Monday but today was more of a raucous day. Stocks opened higher but fell as the morning went on. At one point, the S&P 500 was off by more than 2.2% and the Nasdaq was down much more than that. Later on, the bulls showed up to pare some of the losses. Still, you can see how easily stocks got pushed around. That’s very different from the market’s behavior earlier this spring.

The broader market was briefly helped by optimistic news from the Middle East. The price of oil fell close to 4% after Energy Secretary Chris Wight said that ship traffic is increasing in the Strait of Hormuz. Gold fell more than $130 per ounce on Friday. President Trump said that a deal to open the strait is “two or three” days away. This is encouraging, but I’m a realist about such matters. I’ll believe it when I see it.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Transports were up over 1.3% while the Dow Jones Industrials were little changed (+0.2%). These sector rotations are becoming more pronounced.

Over the past week, High Beta stocks have fallen on hard times. By High Beta, I mean stocks that tend to fluctuate a lot. At the other end of the spectrum, low volatility stocks have been remarkably calm.

Over the last five trading days, the S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) has fallen by 5.4% while the S&P 500 Low Vol ETF (SPLV) has gained 2.8%. That’s a very large spread, especially for such a short period of time. Of course, this is merely the opposite of what the market had been doing for several months.

Here’s a chart of High Beta (red) versus Low Vol (blue):

This week, Bank of America (BAC) warned investors that its stock market signals started flashing red. Charlie Bilello, one of my favorite stats guys, recently said that the yield on the S&P 500 has dropped below 1%, and it’s heading toward its all-time low of 0.94% from 2000.

The Economy Created 172,000 New Jobs in May

On Friday, the government released a surprisingly strong jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that 172,000 net new jobs were created in May. That more than doubled expectations. The number for April was revised higher to 179,000.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. The unemployment rate has been either 4.3% or 4.4% for each of the last six months.

They key number that I’ve been looking for is average hourly earnings. More pay for workers means more business for companies. For May, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% which matched expectations. That’s a good number but not a great one. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up by 3.4%.

Here are some details:

Leisure and hospitality led all sectors with 70,000 jobs, well above the 14,000 per month average over the past year and a possible reaction to hiring needed for the World Cup.

Local government added 55,000.

Health care, which has been the leading sector, contributed 35,000 new hires, about in line with its average. Social assistance added 12,000.

It’s frustrating to see job growth concentrated in a few sectors. In addition to the strong job numbers for May, revisions for prior months also presented an even better picture.

The nonfarm payroll report for April was revised higher by 64,000. The number for March was raised to 214,000, which is a gain of 29,000. The labor force participation rate was stable at 61.8%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate dropped a little to 8.1%.

The Federal Reserve meets again next week. Don’t expect any movement on interest rates, but the Fed’s outlook could be slowly changing. The yield on the two-year Treasury has climbed higher in recent weeks. The yield recently hit its highest point in over a year. The 10-year yield recently broke above 4.6%.

Traders don’t see the Fed hiking rates next week, or at the meeting after that or the meeting after that. But in the one after that, in December, the market sees the Fed hiking interest rates by 0.2%. I’m skeptical of forecasts going out that far, but it does signal to investors that the market sees the Fed getting more aggressive sometime soon. Last week’s jobs report is more evidence.

On Wednesday, we’re going to get the CPI report for May, and it could be an ugly one. FactSet said the median estimate is that inflation is running at 4.2%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees Q2 GDP growth running at 3.3%. We did get some negative news this morning. Small business optimism fell to its lowest level since October 2024.

FICO Announces $2.0 Billion Share Buyback

We had good news from one of our Buy List stocks. Yesterday, FICO’s (FICO) Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program. Under the program, FICO will buy up to $2.0 billion of the company’s outstanding stock.

The new program replaces what’s left in the previous $1.5 billion stock repurchase program. FICO also said it will borrow $1.5 billion to fund its accelerated share repurchase plan.

Shares of FICO have done well in recent weeks, Since April 22, FICO is up 32.8% for us.

The last earnings report was quite good. On April 28, FICO said its net income jumped 60% to $12.50 per share. Free-cash flow was $214.3 million, compared with $65.5 million last year. Quarterly revenue rose 30% to $691.7 million.

FICO also raised its guidance. Before, FICO expected full-year revenues of $2.35 billion. Now it expects revenues of $2.45 billion. FICO raised its full-year earnings guidance from $38.17 to $40.45 per share. The next earnings report should be out sometime late next month.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: June 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 9th, 2026 at 7:07 am

Oil Prices Ease as Iran and Israel Halt Strikes

A Rush to Stockpile Oil Will Keep Prices Higher for Longer

Welcome to the Era of Me-First Energy

Why Does It Take Years to Get a Patriot Missile From Factory to Front Line?

Dubai Reinvented Itself. Now a War Is Testing Its Endurance.

China’s Strength in Semiconductors, Rare Earths Drives Export Surge

The Fight to Break China’s Rare-Earth Dominance Moves to a New Front in Brazil

Ten Years On, the UK Is Counting the Economic Cost

National Security Is a Job for Professionals, Not Partisans

Treasury Market Is Telling Kevin Warsh Rates Need to Be Higher

Let’s Count the Ways Kevin Warsh Will Disappoint Trump

Goldman, Barclays Traders Warn of Market Risks After Friday Rout

Wall Street Races “Onchain,” and the Scramble To Build the Markets Begins

Matthew Lynn Is Blissfully Innocent of “Coverage Ratios”

In An Age of Uncertainty, Saving Is More Important Than Ever

Klarna Launches US Savings Accounts to Attract Everyday Users

Trump’s No Tax on Tips Gamble Risks Falling Short With Disgruntled Vegas Voters

The Viral Lottery for $5 Million UK Homes Is Coming to the US

SpaceX IPO Forces Investors to Bet on Musk’s Entangled AI Empire

How Banks Are Using SpaceX to Woo the Superrich

University Endowments Are About to Strike It Big on the SpaceX IPO

Trump Eyes a Piece of A.I.

AI Will Rip Off Consumers Unless They Fight Back

Apple Downplays Concerns That Its Use of Google AI Models Will Undermine Privacy

OpenAI Files for IPO

Meta Launches ‘Workforce Academy’ to Train Workers to Build Data Centers

As Screwworm Cases Mount, U.S. Officials Ramp Up Response

GSK to Buy Nuvalent for $10.6 Billion in Oncology Push

J.M. Smucker Expects Sales to Fall This Year

Chinese Diners Will Wait Five Hours for This Conveyor-Belt Sushi

Remembering the 1994 US World Cup, When Tickets Cost $25

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Morning News: June 8, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 8th, 2026 at 7:08 am

Oil Surges After Hostilities Between Iran and Israel Escalate

OPEC Plus to Boost Oil Production as Ceasefire in Iran Remains Elusive

The Global Economic Toll of Oil Prices at $120 for an Entire Year

As Oil Prices Spike, Talk of ‘Demand Destruction’ Sets In

More Carriers Expected to Follow in Spirit’s Footsteps as Fuel Crisis Slashes Airline Profits in Half

Trump’s Economy Polling Slides as Iran War Saps His Superpower

Why Trump’s War Hasn’t Broken Iran’s Economy

The War Powers Resolution Is Working — Even If It Fails

IMF Chief Warns World Isn’t Ready for Shocks That Are Piling Up

China Says ‘Illegal’ Outbound Investment Crackdown Won’t Lead to Forced Liquidation

AI Trade Unwind Rocks Korean Traders Leveraged for One-Way Bet

Europe Watches Its Economic Recovery Fade Into the Distance

ECB Expected to Be First Among Peers to Raise Key Rate in Response to Conflict

Intesa Bids $35 Billion for Monte dei Paschi

When the Card Declined Abroad Is a Policy Failure

Bulls Make Their Case as Stock Risks Pile Up

Young People Like Stocks

How the IRS’s Current Tax System Discourages Compliance

The Top 1% Reap Most From Tax Loophole Costing $48 Billion

Warren Buffett’s Latest Progressive Tax Rate Whopper

Antitrust Enforcers Overstate Market Power, Understate Market Value

Bring Your Own Power, Ireland Tells Tech Titans Hungry for Data Centers

In a World Where Change Has Become the Norm, Which Companies Are Built to Last?

Nvidia Takes the Top Spot in the 2026 List of Best Companies for the Future

Five Ways Elon Musk’s SpaceX Upended Wall Street’s IPO Playbook

How SpaceX Became Embedded in America’s War Machine

Driverless Trucks Are Here—and They’re Delivering Bags of Doritos

Why Toyota RAV4s Are Suddenly the Most Coveted Used Cars in America

AI Leaders Are Cosplaying James Bond Villains

Apple Investors Look for AI Overhaul to Power Next Leg of Gains

Vimeo Parent Bending Spoons Files for US IPO Showing Sales Jump

Not Her Mother’s Cookies: Daughter of Mrs. Fields Starts Healthy Brand

In Mexico for the World Cup? Cartels Are the Least of Your Worries

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Morning News: June 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 5th, 2026 at 7:02 am

China Builds an Economic Fortress as Global Tensions Rise

Banks Curb China Trips, Delay Events After Cross-Border Scrutiny

Russia’s Sanctioned Businessmen Accuse Authorities of Setting “Trap” for Economy

Japan Spent Billions to Prop Up the Yen. Why Is It Still Weak?

Where’s the Global Economic Meltdown?

US Adds 172,000 Jobs, Far Exceeding Expectations

Does President Trump Have Us Flying Too Close to the Sun?

If Stablecoins Are the Future of Money, Watch Out

Private Credit Funds Face Renewed Withdrawals in Second Quarter

Point72 Weighs Paying Other Hedge Funds to See Their Trade Ideas

Five Ideas for Reducing Income Inequality

The Lasting Cost of Graduating Into a Tough Job Market

How Funding Cuts Left the World Vulnerable to Ebola

US Public Transit Bounces Back as War-Fueled Gas Prices Remain High

Killing Lake Powell Won’t Save the Colorado River

The Simplistic and Baseless War on Plastic Bags

The Supreme Court Doesn’t Care About Voting Anymore

San Francisco Is Making an AI-Powered Comeback

AI Is Upending One of Finance’s Cushiest Jobs

Trump Officials Worry US Loophole Let Chinese Firms Buy Nvidia Blackwell Chips

Rob Arnott Sees Mega-Cap IPOs Weighing on Other Stocks for Years

Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX’s Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040

China, HK Investors Banned From SpaceX IPO on Security Grounds

SpaceX Denied Fast Index Entry by S&P 500

Meet the SpaceX Employees Who Are About to Become Overnight Millionaires

There’s More to Space Stocks Than SpaceX

To Sell Trucks, Break Out the Cowboys and Wrap Them in Old Glory

Americans on GLP-1s Are Overwhelming Retailers With Their Nonstop Returns

New ‘60 Minutes’ Chief Promises Independence in Bid to Reassure Staff

Netflix Is Done Coddling Hollywood

Can Mattel Build an Empire on He-Man’s Shoulders?

Handicapping Gold Versus Silver In the World Cup

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Morning News: June 4, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 4th, 2026 at 7:13 am

Iran Shock Jolts Asia and Europe to Speed Up Energy Transition

Dwindling US Oil Inventories Are a Warning to Global Markets

The U.S.-Qatar Domination of Gas Left the World Dangerously Exposed

The US Should Seek Compromise With Cuba, Not Conquest

What to Know About Trump’s Latest Tariffs

Singapore Denies Forced Labor Claims After Trump Tariff Move

US Bank Regulators to Tout Deregulatory Agenda to Lawmakers

Broadcom Q2 Earnings Miss Drags Nasdaq Futures Lower

The Mortgage Hedging ‘Beast’ Is Returning to the Treasury Market

Trafigura Pays Record Dividend as Profit Soars Over $4 Billion

Polymarket Lets You Bet on Vibes

Don’t Follow Zohran Mamdani’s Retirement Strategy

Consumer Optimism Stalls At Its Lows for a Third Month

How Could It Be a “Crisis” That Americans Can’t Afford a House?

H-1B Crackdown on Indian Workers Erodes a Texas Real Estate Boom

Sticker Shock at the Pump Fuels a Surge in Hybrid Sales

Why a Single Screwworm Parasite Found in the US Is Raising Alarm

Patents Play a Substantial Role In American Innovation

A Safety Obsessed White House Threatens AI’s American Future

AI Data Center Boom Risks Breakup of Biggest US Power Grid Operator

TSMC Warns Chip Supply Won’t Meet AI-Fueled Demand for Years

The Small-Business Owners Managing Whole Armies of A.I. Employees

Companies’ AI Bills Are Bigger Than Ever — and Coming Due

Can These Ads Make You Love A.I.?

Terms Revealed for SpaceX’s Unconventional $75 Billion IPO

Jamie Dimon to Pitch JPMorgan’s Ultra-Rich Clients on SpaceX IPO

Goldman Erects Lobby Rockets as Morgan Stanley IPO Rivalry Heats Up

BYD Is Showing Tesla How to Build Trust in Robo-Cars

Uber’s AI Doubts Are Just Normal Growing Pains

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Set to Make $600 Million on Universal Stake

What Is Personalized Pricing—and Why Are Lawmakers Scrambling to Ban It?

Why Berkshire Hathaway Went Window-Shopping at Macy’s

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Morning News: June 3, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 3rd, 2026 at 7:11 am

Oil Rises as Hostilities Flare Overnight in the Persian Gulf

Oil’s Hormuz Alternatives Offer Only a Partial Fix

Even if Oil Prices Peak Soon, the Global Economy Will Slow This Year

OECD Warns of Severe Global Slowdown If Middle East Conflict Is Prolonged

Bank of Japan Could Raise Rates Even If Mideast Uncertainty Persists

Wealthy Russians See Empires Crumble as Putin Seizes Assets

Trump Begins Rebuilding His Tariff Wall Citing Forced Labor

U.S. Proposes New Duties Over Forced Labor in Renewed Tariffs Push

No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea

Warsh Pledges to Follow Best of Fed’s Traditions, While Also Looking for Change

Warsh Names Two Conservative Policy Veterans as Interim Fed Advisers

The Federal Reserve Requires Better Communication, Not Less

Berkshire Is Breaking With Buffett’s Playbook

Greg Abel Puts His Stamp on Berkshire Hathaway With Pair of Megadeals

Market-Research Firm AlphaSense Clinches $7.5 Billion Valuation in New Funding Round

Revolut Founder Is Building a Launch Pad for a $76 Billion Fortune

New Intelligence Role Puts Bill Pulte’s Housing Agenda in Doubt

DeSantis’ Plan to Gut Property Taxes Is a Soviet Power Grab

Thoughts on Improving a Struggling Housing Market

The Share of Corporate Directors Over Age 70 Is Skyrocketing

Europe Wants to Be Less Reliant on American Tech. Here’s Its Plan.

What’s Driving Trump’s Big A.I. Pivot

Meta’s “AI Layoffs” Are a Bullish Sign of More Meta Hiring

SpaceX’s Capital Needs Are Out of This World

$3.6 Million an Hour—and Other Ways to Measure Elon Musk’s Fortune

Nvidia CEO Pitches ‘Insane’ AI Returns to Billionaire Families

GameStop Posts Higher Profit, Launches $2 Billion Buyback Program

AkzoNobel Shares Plunge After Sherwin-Williams, Nippon Paint Drop $14.5 Billion Bid

CBS News Fires Scott Pelley of ‘60 Minutes’

A Psychedelics Revival Is Overdue

With Stephen Curry Deal, Li-Ning of China Shoots for Global Sneaker Spotlight

Congress Wants to “Fix” College Football. What Could Go Wrong?

Pride Groups Plan for a Future Without Some of Their Biggest Corporate Sponsors

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CWS Market Review – June 2, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 2nd, 2026 at 6:10 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Last October, 60 Minutes interviewed Andrew Ross Sorkin about his book on the 1929 stock market crash. As I expected, the segment came with dire warnings concerning parallels between the market of 1929 and the market of today.

Please. This market is barely recognizable to the market of 1929. It’s a lazy argument that describes any rally as a potential new Great Depression.

This is what I wrote at the time:

I hate that this even needs to be said, but the current market isn’t anything like the market of 1929. Just as a reminder, the stock market fell 89% from top to bottom. That’s what we’re talking about when we compared us to 1929.

Many more Americans are invested in the stock market than was the case 100 years ago. There’s no gold standard today. No fixed commissions. There’s a global economy. We have deposit insurance. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate reached 25%. Today it’s just over 4%.

Bear markets happen. We even had a brief one earlier this year. That’s part of investing. That’s quite a different thing from 1929.

During the Great Depression, 9,000 U.S. banks went insolvent. Last year, there were two.

As it turns out, people love to be scared. Despite these serious-sounding warnings, the market stubbornly refuses to crash. In fact, it’s only marched higher. The Nasdaq Composite is up more than 22% since 60 Minutes aired its segment. For good measure, CBS ran it again this past Sunday.

Of course, for the super bears, any contrasting evidence is further proof of the bubble. The stock market is indeed volatile, and that’s exactly why we’re focused on the long term.

Today, the S&P 500 closed higher for the ninth day in a row. We also had a nine-day winning streak last year. The index has closed higher for the last nine weeks in a row. This week may very well be #10.

For the last few months, utility stocks have badly lagged the overall market. Watching the relative performance of utilities is often a good “tell” for the market’s overall mood.

The S&P 500 is in black and the Utilities are in blue.

For now, the market apparently has little need for safe and dependable stocks like utilities. Instead, Wall Street is madly embracing higher risk stocks. For example, Micron (MU) hit a new high today. Over the last year, the stock is up 10-fold.

Investors should certainly be more cautious in this market. The economy continues to grow but there are growing signs of concern, not of a depression, but of slower growth. Let’s take a closer look at the low-hire, low-fire economy.

The Low-Hire, Low-Fire Economy

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs openings report, better known as the JOLTS report.

The BLS said that available employment hit 7.62 million in April. That’s a jump of 731,000. Economists had been expecting 6.8 million. It’s also the highest since May 2024.

CNBC reported:

The jump in openings put the available jobs above the total of unemployed workers. The rate of openings compared with the size of the labor force rose 0.4 percentage point to 4.6%.

By industry, nearly all of the openings came from the professional and business services category, which added 668,000 positions, a possible indicator of the impact from artificial intelligence on labor demand. Health care and social assistance, the greatest engine of job creation, added 89,000. Financial activities saw a decline of 134,000. Most other categories reported little change.

One concerning stat is that the report said that hiring dropped. During April, employers hired 5.12 million new workers. That’s a drop of 419,000. Layoffs fell a bit as did quits. The quits number is often a good proxy for worker confidence. You’re more likely to leave your current job if you think you can easily get another one.

The low-hire, low-fire economy is still in play. The labor market has been like this for more than a year. This Friday, we’ll get the May jobs report. I’m expecting much of the same.

In fact, the jobless rate has barely moved. Over the last 10 months, the monthly unemployment rate has been 4.3% five times, 4.4% three times, and once it was 4.5%; plus, we never got the October report thanks to the government shutdown.

The conflict with Iran has yet to hurt the overall economy. On Monday, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index for May, and it was a good report. Last month, the index rose 1.3 points to 54.0. That’s a four-year high.

Any number over 50 means that the manufacturing sector of the economy is expanding. Manufacturing now makes up about 10% of the economy. The improved numbers probably reflect companies’ front-loading of orders as they try to navigate supply line issues during the war with Iran.

By the way, don’t listen to people who say that the United States doesn’t make anything anymore. In reality, the U.S. is a manufacturing powerhouse. The difference is that a lot fewer workers do it. Manufacturing has grown for the last five months in a row.

Some of the numbers may not tell the complete story since there’s been a massive increase in AI investments. If we exclude that, then the economy may be weaker than it appears.

For Friday, Wall Street expects to see 80,000 net new jobs and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%.

Q1 GDP Growth was Revised Lower

On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis lowered the government’s estimate for Q1 GDP growth. The initial report said that the economy grew by 2% during the first three months of this year. Now that’s been taken down to 1.6%.

These are in annualized inflation-adjusted numbers. The economy grew at a 0.5% rate for Q4. We’ll get our first look at Q2 GDP in late July. The reports are revised twice after the initial report, although the GDP numbers are frequently revised again many years after the initial report.

The Q1 numbers were helped by large tax refunds. Also, business spending in equipment rose by 17%. Profits from current production fell to $40 billion. That’s down from nearly $250 billion for Q4. Gross Domestic Income rose by 1.5% in Q4.

Along with the GDP report, we got the report on personal income and spending. This includes the PCE price index which is important because it’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

In April, PCE prices rose by 1.5%. Over the last year, PCE prices are up by 3.8%. That’s the highest in three years. If we exclude food and energy, then PCE inflation was up 0.2% last month, and 3.3% for the last 12 months.

Before I go, I wanted to mention the very good earnings report we had from Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) yesterday. I’ll have more details in our paid issue later this week.

SAIC said it made $3.23 per share for its fiscal Q1 compared with Wall Street’s forecast for $2.28 per share. That’s a beat of 41%.

CEO Jim Reagan said, “These results reflect our focus on execution and our commitment to our financial targets. We are raising our guidance to reflect this strong start, while continuing to invest for the future.”

SAIC raised its full-year earnings range from $9.50 to $9.70 per share, to $9.90 to $10.10 per share.

At one point in yesterday’s trading, the stock was up more than 18%. It later settled lower for a gain of 10%. We have a 13% gain this year with SAIC. I’ll have full details in our paid newsletter, which you can sign up for here.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy