Morning News: October 14, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 14th, 2026 at 7:03 am

China’s Exports Soar, Putting Its Trade Surplus on Track for a Record

Is Trump’s Plan to Import Diesel From Russia Legal?

Senators Urge Trump to Reverse Diesel Deal With Putin

Why Europe Just Can’t Quit the US

Rolex and Gold Were for US and Not Trump, Swiss Trade Chief Says

US Consumer Prices Climb by Most Since April on Fuel Costs

Why Trump’s Second Midterms Could Be Worse Than His First

Brad the Gamer Is Much More Than a Political Punching Bag

When Getting Married Means Giving Up a $20,000 Tax Break

Fast-Money Quants Are at Odds With Fundamental Stock Investors

BlackRock Draws $205 Billion in Client Funds as Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates

Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Arm Brings in Record New Money From IPOs

Bank of America Fined $1.2 Billion for Lax Money-Laundering Oversight

US Mortgage Rates Hit 7.5%, Extending Slump in Home Buying

Stubborn Sellers Are the Last Thing Propping Up Home Prices

The Power Bill Divide

There’s No AI Victory For the U.S. Without the World’s Workers

Tycoons Amplify Calls for Stronger AI Rules as Risks Mount

China Is Poised to Spearhead a $5 Trillion Humanoid Robot Market

Lightspeed Partner Departs From the View That Bigger Is Better

Nvidia Is the Spectacular Embodiment of the Ripple Effect

America’s Fertilizer Squeeze: Different Problems Require Different Policy Tools

Musk Blames Tycoon for Stalling Satellite Internet Access in India

Mark Zuckerberg Versus the Pint of Guinness

Meg Whitman Takes Charge at Albertsons

Albertsons Just Slapped a ‘For Sale’ Sign on Itself—Again

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CWS Market Review – October 13, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 13th, 2026 at 6:14 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Today is the unofficial kickoff of Q3 earnings season. Expectations are high and this looks to be another batch of solid earnings from Corporate America.

But, as we well know, Wall Street is an expectations game. For companies to do well, they not only need to post strong earnings, but they must do it stronger than expected. Even meeting expectations can send a stock reeling lower. Many companies expend a great deal of energy guiding analysts to where they want their expectations to be.

In addition to earnings, I’m also curious to hear any guidance companies may have for Q4 and the early part of 2027.

Typically, several of the major banks go first. This is particularly interesting this year because many bank stocks have not done very well over the past month. On top of that, we’re probably looking at another rate increase from the Fed before the end of the year.

Wall Street closed lower today by a tiny bit. It was the fourth daily drop in the last five sessions, but these have been minor moves. The S&P 500 is still very close to its all-time closing high from one week ago.

The divergence between the stock and bond markets is still the dominant theme on Wall Street. Over the last six months, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has gained 14% while the Long Term Treasury (TLT) is -7.6%. That’s an enormous gulf between the two. The long-term average is about 4% in favor of stocks.

As we stand now, Wall Street expects Q3 earnings growth of 30%. That’s very strong, and if it’s right, then this will go down as the third quarter in a row with +25% earnings growth, and the eighth in a row with double-digit earnings growth.

Another positive sign is that earnings estimates have been climbing higher in recent weeks. That’s not what usually happens. Typically, as earnings season approaches, earnings estimates are gradually pared back. This makes it easier for companies to claim that they “beat the Street.” Yes, a heavily manipulated Street.

We also want to keep an eye on the “beat rate.” Typically, about 75% to 80% of companies beat expectations. So far, 116 companies have issued guidance for Q3. Of those, 62% were positive. That’s well above the long-term average. Revenue growth is expected to be around 12%, and full-year earnings growth is expected to be about 26%, give or take.

When earnings are growing faster than revenue, that means companies are growing their profit margin. That’s good and bad. It generally means that companies are operating more efficiently, but it also means that profits are being goosed by higher prices. That may not be sustainable. To quote Jeff Bezos, “your margin is my opportunity.”

All 11 sectors are expected to report revenue growth for Q3. The forward P/E Ratio is currently around 19, which is higher than I like but not unreasonable, especially if the Fed only hikes a few times.

Now let’s look at some of today’s big bank earnings reports.

The Big Banks Report Q3 Earnings

Let’s start with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which is the big boy on Wall Street (nearly $900 billion in market cap). This time, JPM posted a small miss. For Q3, JPM made $5.90 per share which was three cents below expectations. Revenue rose 8% which was also a miss. CEO Jamie Dimon said the U.S. economy is holding up well, but he noted risks like inflation, deficits, high asset prices and geopolitics.

Goldman Sachs (GS), another giant on Wall Street, had a strong beat. For Q3, Goldman made $17.01 per share. Expectations were for $13.09 per share. Earnings were up 29% and revenues were up 23% to $18.68 billion. The stock closed lower today, which tells me that traders have set the bar high this season.

Citigroup (C) also beat the Street. Profits jumped 40% to $5.2 billion, or $2.85 per share versus consensus of $2.65 per share on revenue of $23.85 billion. Citi had strength in markets, banking, and services. CEO Jane Fraser has been working hard to make Citi more competitive, and her efforts appear to be paying off, but it’s still early. Citi has often been, in my opinion, too complex and too top-heavy. It’s less so today. The stock was down over 5% today.

Wells Fargo (WFC) had mixed results. Profit rose 6% to $5.95 billion, or $1.87 per share which was a slight beat, but revenue of $21.87 billion missed estimates. Net interest income and loan growth were positives, but revenue overall fell short. Shares declined about 3% today.

Outside of the banks, we had a nice report from UnitedHealth (UNH) today ($4.69 vs. $4.14). UNH also raised its full-year guidance to earnings of at least $20.50 per share. The stock popped 5% early this morning but gave back its gains.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported $2.59 per share, which was a beat by six cents. Sales were up 5.9% to $25.4 billion. J&J also raised its full-year guidance to earnings of at least $11.15 per share. The stock, which is a Dow component, dropped 5.7% today.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) made $4.60 per share which was a 27-cent beat. Management cut U.S. net store growth guidance. DPZ is -4.8% today.

Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS) and BlackRock (BLK) report tomorrow.

Higher Mortgage Rates Are Weighing on the Housing Sector

The WSJ notes that home sellers are “starting to blink” on prices. That’s hardly a surprise, and the problem isn’t exactly hiding. Higher mortgage rates, now over 7%, are impacting the entire housing market.

It won’t take long before the bond market’s problem becomes a housing industry problem. The number of homes for sale is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels. In September, housing inventory was only 5% below where it was seven years ago.

Until now, homebuilders only had one major concern: stubborn sellers. That meant that competition from the existing market was practically nil. Now that’s changing, and homebuilders are feeling the squeeze.

Major Homebuilders like Lennar and KB Home said they’re facing tough competition from regular owners who are more motivated to sell. Lennar said that homes sold in the western region are down $44,000 from a year ago.

In an effort to entice buyers, home sellers are slashing prices. As a result, the major homebuilders are following the market lower. If not, they’re missing out.

In the four weeks through Sept. 20, 21% of sellers in the existing-home market dropped their asking price, data from Redfin shows. The most significant activity is happening with concessions, which don’t show up in headline prices.

In August, 45% of home sellers gave concessions to buyers, such as offering to cover the closing costs or handing the buyer money for repairs. In oversupplied Sunbelt housing markets such as Atlanta and Nashville, Tenn., seven in 10 sellers are now offering concessions. These are the same markets where home builders tend to cluster.

We’ll soon see outright price cuts. What happened is that four years ago, mortgage rates started to rise, but people who locked-in low rates refused to budge. As a result, that starved the market for new supply.

The big homebuilders were able to keep selling homes because they offered big mortgage-rate buydowns which undercut the market rates. The problem is that those are expensive and they cut into profit margins.

The WSJ notes that some sales per community usually drop about 4% in September. This year, sales are down 18%.

Homebuilders appear to be walking into a price war with home sellers, and higher mortgage rates are making the outlook even worse.

That’s all for now. The CPI report is due out tomorrow morning. Wall Street expects a 0.6% jump in headline inflation and a 0.4% rise in core inflation. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 13, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 13th, 2026 at 7:08 am

A New Era of Investment for the Defense Sector

America’s Submarine Production Is Stuck in the Past

Trump’s Birthday Gift to Putin Is Only Half the Story

I.M.F. Warns Mideast War Will Widen Gap Between Rich and Poor Countries

CFTC Staff Were Told to Retract Analysis of Suspicious Oil Trades

Why the Rupee Is So Weak Despite India’s Fast-Growing Economy

Seeking Less Harmful Alternatives to Central Bank Rate Rises

Record Share of Investors Shun French Stocks, BofA Survey Shows

Blackstone’s Gray Warns European Fiscal Strains Outweigh US Risk

The Forces Driving Up Bond Yields Take a Troubling Turn

The Nobel Prize in Economics Is a Message to the Fed

The Nobel Prize Message for Kevin Warsh

Citi’s Traders, Money-Movers Help Drive Bank Past Profit Target

JPMorgan Posts Surprise Drop in Fixed-Income Trading Revenue

Bank of America Loses Bankers, Tells Staff of Big Ambition, Continued Hiring

Goldman’s Equity Traders Post Big Haul as Credit, Rates Miss

Wells Fargo Beats as Strong Customers Keep Lid on Loan Losses

J&J Leans Toward Orthopedic Spinoff as Medtech Sales Disappoint

Pediatrician Who Drew $500,000 From Life Savings Shows Crisis for Doctors

Chip Stocks Tumble on A.I. Spending Fears and Rising Chinese Competition

AI’s Giant Money Loop Is Drawing Foreign Cash Like 2008

AI Turns Little-Known Lithuanian Unicorn Into Data Powerhouse

States Now Have to Decide How to Spend Meta’s Settlement Billions

Meta and OpenAI Use Cutesy Agents to Lure Early Adopters

AI Is Changing Motherhood for the Worse

Space May Be the Answer to the Data Center Question

Space Investment to Top $100 Billion in 2026 After SpaceX IPO

Domino’s Pizza Sales Growth Continued Slowing

Albertsons Pauses Full-Year Outlook as It Reviews Operations

How Climate Change Is Causing ‘the Gentrification of Seafood’

Sweetgreen’s Plan to Shed Its Expensive Salad Image

LVMH’s Creaking Sales Cast Pall Over Luxury’s Fragile Recovery

Givaudan Shares Climb After Sales Beat Expectations

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Morning News: October 12, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 12th, 2026 at 7:05 am

Zelenskyy Says Strikes to Go on If Putin Shuns Energy Truce

Why Putin Says Russia Could ‘Cease to Exist’ If It Loses

Russia Can’t Export as Much Diesel as Trump Needs

World’s Energy Order Tested Again as Iran War’s Reach Extends Further

Iran War Has ‘No Easy Way Out,’ Ex-US Defense Chief Austin Says

America’s Favorite Fruit Is Being Bruised by the Iran War

A Rare ‘Super’ El Niño Is Looking More Likely. Here’s What to Expect

Wall Street Bosses Look Past Pain Points to Ramp Up India Bets

Rich-World Bond Selloff Puts Advanced Economies in IMF Spotlight

France’s Bond Turmoil Raises the Specter of Contagion in Europe

Americans Win Nobel Prize for Work on Economic Stability

Crisis Theorists Recasting Ideas of Keynes Share Nobel Prize

When Companies Stop Driving a Hard Bargain, This Fed Official Starts Worrying

Rising Bond Yields Are No Excuse for Central Bank Inertia

Stumbling Equity Rally Hinges on Earnings for Year-End Boost

We Must Put To Bed The Milton Friedman Myth About The Great Depression

In the US, a Wealth Boom and a Price Shock Collide

What a Year of Free Money Meant: Softer Diapers, Clean Laundry, a Visit to Six Flags

Home Sellers Are Starting to Blink on Prices. That’s Bad for Builders

San Francisco Isn’t Giving Up on Turning More of Its Offices Into Homes

Robinhood’s AI Agents Won’t Help You Beat the Market

Microsoft’s Slash of AI Token Costs Should Have AI Investors Fearful

The Staggering Costs of a Single AI Data Center

With Semiconductors, Partners Over Political Pressure

Quantum-Computing Company IonQ to Buy Cybersecurity Firm for Up to $1.3 Billion

What’s Dragging Down A.I. Efficiency? The ‘Verification Tax.’

AI Agents Are a Threat to Travel Businesses. Airbnb Could Still Be a Winner

Carmakers Back EU Plan to Cap Chinese Hybrids as First Step

Ford’s Axed Electric Pickup Is a Surprise Hit in the Used Market

Nascar’s New CEO Aims to Take ‘Big Swings’

College Volleyball Hits the Big Time

California’s Wine Slump Is Fueling a Risky Bet on Agave

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Morning News: October 9, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 9th, 2026 at 7:03 am

American Oil Refiners Are Printing Money as Wars Shrink Global Energy Supplies

Trump’s Moves to Boost Diesel Supplies Have Not Yet Lowered Prices

Europe’s Tough Choices to Avert a Gas Supply Crunch This Winter

About France’s National Debt, There’s No There There

Wall Street Sees an Ominous Sign in Bond Market’s Latest Selloff

The Trump Stock Market Is Lousy for Most

Market Madness, Bond Drama and Your Mortgage

The Winning Stock Funds This Time Weren’t Tech. They Were Energy

It’s a Tough Time to Launch a Hedge Fund

Goldman Set to Lead Wall Street’s $19 Billion Stock-Trading Haul

Waldron’s Expected Rise Stirs Talk Inside Goldman of Knock-On Succession Plans

American Express Fined $350 Million for Inadequate Anti-Money Laundering Controls

‘Funflation’ Isn’t Economic Strength, It’s Cultural Consumption

SALT Tax Cap Has Couples Considering Divorce or Skipping Marriage to Save $20,000

Highest Mortgage Rates in 3 Years Chill the Housing Market

If Water Is the New Gold, We’d Better Price It Right

China’s AI Dominance Rests on Harnessing Excess Energy

OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026

The Fallout From OpenAI’s Revenue Surprise

It’s Crucial to Remember That Not All Data Centers Are the Same

Microsoft Suspended From Green Card Program as Trump Officials Widen Fraud Drive

Tesla Drops ‘Self-Driving’ Branding to Appease Europe Regulators

Delta Cuts Profit Outlook as Surging Fuel Costs Keep Grip

Delta’s CEO on Skipping Starlink, Premium-Travel Rush and High Fuel Prices

What’s in Russian Permafrost May Be Scarier Than Plague

Walmart Wants Robots to Run Its Warehouses. Reality Keeps Getting in the Way

7-Eleven Inc. CEO Using Japan Playbook for North America Growth

Shifting Eating Habits Have PepsiCo Investors Seeking Operational Changes

Is Fine Dining Dead? That’s the Wrong Question

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Morning News: October 8, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 8th, 2026 at 7:03 am

Oil Prices Jump on Outburst of Violence in the Middle East

Saudis in Talks to Formalize Hormuz Shuttles in Fight for Market

Oil Traders Are Increasingly Tuning Out Trump’s Iran Rhetoric

Trump’s Trouble Is the Message and the Messenger

The Little-Noticed Exception in Trump Accounts

ECB Officials Sought ‘Proportionate’ Step With Latest Hike

A Top Fed Official Casts Further Doubt on a Rate Rise This Month

US Stock Futures Slip on Mounting Energy Shock, AI Bubble Fears

Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

Goldman’s Top Leaders Set to Score More Than $500 Million With Special Bonus

Josh Kushner Builds $17.5 Billion Empire Beyond Venture Capital

Can Your College Affect Your Income?

A College-by-College Guide to Which Majors Pay Off — or Don’t

Healthcare’s Risk to the Economy Is Now Too Big to Ignore

How the Trump Administration Is Eroding Airline Passengers’ Rights

TSMC’s Quarterly Revenue Jumps 51% After AI Demand Holds Up

Tiger Global Poised for $5 Billion Windfall on Early OpenAI Bet

The AI Giants Are Facing a Severe Case of Financial Indigestion

Does AI Need Its Own Oath to ‘Do No Harm’?

By Doing and Thinking For Us, AI Will Render Us Smarter Than Ever

Good News For Everyone, AI Can’t Close a Real Estate Deal

Microsoft’s Rationing of AI: Beginning of the AI Mania’s End

Microsoft Expands Xbox’s Movie, TV Ambitions With New Division

Ellisons Invest About $17 Billion in Warner Bros. Takeover

The NFL’s $192 Million Bet on Flag Football Is Paying Off With Teen Girls

Hordes of Teens on E-Bikes Force Suburbs to Rewrite Road Rules

PepsiCo Lowers Guidance on Mounting Costs in North America

Uniqlo Owner Posts Record Annual Profit, Expects Further Growth

7-Eleven Owner Reports Lower Quarterly Profit

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Morning News: October 7, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 7th, 2026 at 7:04 am

The Reclusive Houthi Leader Wreaking Havoc in the Middle East

Africa Is the New Front in the Middle East’s Wars

Why Dangote’s Mega-Refinery IPO Is Such a Big Deal for Africa

Trafigura Buys Seven Oil Tankers From SFL as Shipping Costs Rise

Diesel Prices Surge Just as Farmers Need Fuel the Most

India’s Central Bank Raises Rates For First Time Since 2023

Europe’s Trade Tensions With China Are Coming to a Head

China Warns EU It Has Tools Ready If Trade Tensions Escalate

China’s ‘Self-Reliance’ Drive Is Upending Trade With Europe

The Specter of Market Contagion Is Haunting Europe

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens as Data-Center Build-Out Boosts Imports

Why Markets Are Buoyant — and Under Pressure

When 20% of Profits Won’t Do, Fund Managers Seek ‘Super Carry’

Dalio Says We’re Nearing Point Where AI Bubble May Burst

Pressure Mounts at Bessent’s Treasury Amid Staff Turnover and Unmet Goals

US Consumer Watchdog Examiners Adopt Lighter Touch Amid Pressure and Threats

US Mortgage Rates Jump to 7.49%, Highest Since 2023

Student Lender Collapses as Immigrant Crackdown Roils Loan Book

Need Help Paying for College? Try Bass Fishing

These Influencers Are on a Mission to Stop People From Paying Medical Bills

When CEOs Brag About Price Hikes, She’s Listening

CoreWeave Tees Up First India Data Centers With AdaniConneX Deal

Nvidia Director Tops AI Billionaires on Insider Stock Sales

SpaceX in Talks to Borrow $40 Billion to Buy Nvidia Chips

Airfares Have Spiked. Is the Death of Spirit Airlines to Blame?

Why Garmin’s CEO Is Flying High

How a Beloved Motorcycle Got Caught in the Canada-U.S. Tariff Web

Bigness Is Not a Crime. Let Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern Merge

Porsche’s New Look: Pricier Cars and 25% Fewer Employees

Skydance Has 99 Problems, But Its Name Isn’t One

French Wine Output at Lowest in Almost 70 Years on Heat, Drought

‘Insane’ Deals Waiting for Premium Wine Drinkers in Private-Label Brands

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CWS Market Review – October 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 6th, 2026 at 7:18 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

On Tuesday, the stock market rallied for the fourth day in a row, and the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high. It took nearly two months for the market to surpass its previous high from August 13. Over the last four years, the S&P 500 is up 109%. Growth stocks have been especially popular. Since July 30, the S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) is up by 13.4%.

I always find it fascinating how easily the stock market can ignore scary headlines and calmly march higher. The stock market indeed climbs a wall of worry. The latest worry is in the bond market. Earlier today, the yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 5.35%. That’s up 70 basis points over the last month.

The impact of higher rates is real. With rates so high, more Americans are choosing to stay put. Homeowners are sitting on record amounts of home equity, but they’re choosing to not use it.

There’s a lot to get to this week, so let’s first look at Friday’s jobs report which has forced the Federal Reserve to hold off its rate-hiking plans for now.

A Big Miss for the September Jobs Report

Wall Street got a big shock on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the U.S. economy created just 29,000 net new jobs last month. Economists had been expecting a gain of 84,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. That was 0.1% higher than expected.

The monthly unemployment rate has been below 5% for the last 61 months in a row. That includes the government shutdown month of October 2025. That’s the longest streak since the 64-month run from March 1965 to June 1970.

The numbers for August were revised lower. The combined revisions showed a new loss of 60,000 jobs. July flipped to a loss of 10,000 jobs. Over the last 18 months, the U.S. economy has created 667,000 new jobs. Over the 18 months prior to that, the economy created 1.96 million jobs.

Here’s a look at the growth of non-farm payrolls:

Once the jobs report came out, traders rushed to change their bets on the odds of another Fed rate increase. The Fed meets again three weeks from tomorrow. Traders now place an 80% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady. In retrospect, it looks like the strong number we originally had for August was an outlier.

Here are some of the details from the report:

Most of the monthly job gains came from healthcare, which added 17,000 workers. Construction was up by 11,000, and manufacturing added 9,000.

Government employment fell by 17,000, while temporary help services saw a decline of 11,000, and information services lost 10,000 amid worries over the impact artificial intelligence may have on the jobs picture. Financial activities also saw a drop of 7,000 jobs.

The labor force participation rate increased by 0.2% to 61.8%. That was its highest reading since May. The broader U-6 unemployment rate dropped slightly to 7.6%.

I’m still concerned about wages. The jobs report said that average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% last month. Wall Street had been expecting 0.1%. Over the last 12 months, wages are up by 3%. That’s the slowest growth rate in five years. The average work week was unchanged at 34.6 hours.

This report gives the Fed political cover to leave rates alone at this month’s meeting. After that, there’s still a good chance the Fed will hike in December. In other words, the jobs report merely delays the Fed, but it doesn’t change the Fed’s gameplan.

The next big event to consider is the upcoming earnings season. Here’s a preview of some of the big bank earnings coming our way.

The Big Banks Report Next Week

The third-quarter earnings season has its unofficial kickoff next week. On Tuesday, October 13, several major banks are due to report their earnings. This includes JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

Let’s take a close look at what to expect. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is the biggie, and everyone wants to hear what Jamie Dimon has to say about the economy and the banking sector.

Analysts will be watching for loan growth, consumer credit and net interest income. For now, the consensus on Wall Street is that JPM will make $5.90 per share on revenue of $51 billion. Oppenheimer recently nudged its JPM estimate higher and JPM is the only large bank it expects to beat the Street.

Next up is Goldman Sachs (GS). This is another titan of Wall Street. The consensus is for EPS of $13.50 to $14.30 per share on revenue of $17 billion. The keys to watch out for are trading and investment-banking fees. GS has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters.

Goldman is the purest read on capital markets. Trading has been the stronger leg with investment-banking fees looking softer. Oppenheimer cut its investment banking revenue view by 9.5% while lifting trading by about 6%, and it cut EPS forecasts for Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup. A miss on advisory or equity underwriting would hit Goldman harder than it would a universal bank.

Citigroup (C). Oh boy, what to say? Citi is still in the middle of a long-term cleanup. Management has guided full-year 2026 return on tangible common equity toward a bit above 11%, an efficiency ratio around 60% or better, and NII excluding markets at or above 5% to 6% growth.

Consensus revenue is about $23.7 billion to $23.8 billion versus $22 billion a year earlier. Investors will be watching whether the beat streak on expenses and capital return continues. Consensus is for earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $23.7 billion.

Wells Fargo (WFC) is more about core banking: net interest income, commercial loan growth and provisions. EPS consensus is at $1.84 with revenue at $22.3 billion. The EPS rose modestly above the year-ago quarter. Consensus EPS is only modestly above the year-ago quarter.

On Wednesday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are due up along with BlackRock.

Here’s how the S&P 500 Financials (XLF) have been performing. Not so good lately.

After JPMorgan, Bank of America (BAC) is the cleanest large-scale read on net interest income and consumer/commercial credit. BofA has earnings consensus at $1.11 to $1.17 per share, and revenue between $30.7 and $31.2 billion factoring in net interest income and deposit costs, plus a smaller markets contribution. Fee income and expense trends matter more if NII is stable.

Morgan Stanley (MS) is the wealth-and-markets counterpart to Goldman. Equities and prime brokerage have been strong; advisory is the swing factor. Like Goldman, it is more exposed if deal fees come in light.

Net interest income should still grow year over year, helped by loan growth (especially commercial) and deposit mix, but the rate of improvement has slowed. Credit quality has stayed resilient in recent quarters. Any uptick in card, commercial real estate, or non-bank financial delinquencies would get attention.

It works like this. Market revenue is the upside risk, and investment-banking fees are the downside risk. AI-related financing and hedge-fund borrowing have supported trading and some lending. Morningstar and others have flagged that investment banking and trading revenues look tired and valuations are no longer cheap.

Capital return is a secondary focus featuring buyback pace at Citi and JPMorgan and whether anyone tightens guidance on 2026 net interest income or expenses.

Oppenheimer’s view is the cautious take. Plain-vanilla banking (loans, credit, costs) is fine, but capital-markets revenue is tracking toward the low end of expectations. This means that only JPMorgan is favored to beat, and Wells Fargo is expected to match.

That’s all for now. The stock market will be open on Monday which is Columbus Day, but many schools and offices are closed. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 6, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 6th, 2026 at 7:02 am

War Is Forcing the World to Reckon With Geography’s Power

China Refiners Flock to Iraqi Crude as US Chokes Iran Supply

Oil Is Flowing From Hormuz Again—Just Not the Kind the World Needs Most

The Oil Shock Could Make Us Stronger

Toxic Flames Next Door: Persistent Gas Flares Undercut Oil Industry Pledges

Trump Allows Cheaper, Dyed Diesel to Be Used in Nonfarm Vehicles

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom

Ray Dalio Warns China, Japan May Pull Back From Treasuries

The US Shouldn’t Be So Afraid of Chinese Investment

EU’s Top Economies Push for Tougher Stance on China Trade Risks

Investors Pounce on South Africa’s Bonds at Weekly Auction

Britain Has Found a Politician Who Actually Knows Finance

Why Americans Are Unhappy With an Economy That Looks Strong

How Total Return Swaps Pile on Risk For Bondholders

Capitalism Puts the Individual In the Arena

Congress Isn’t Drunk, and It Hasn’t Yet Begun To Drink

Interest Payments Could Eat Half Your Tax Dollars by 2035

The World’s 40 Richest Cities by GDP Per Person

High Earners Stop Maxing Out 401(k)s, Betting They Can Outsmart Retirement Savings

High Interest Rates Aren’t Slowing the A.I. Boom. That’s a Problem for the Fed

Wall Street Profits Soar to $45.9 Billion in First Half of 2026

Wall Street Eyes Record Bonuses as Profit Heads Past $90 Billion

OpenAI and Anthropic Face Rising Price Pressure From Big AI Users

Moonshot Said to Eye Early 2027 IPO After Value Hits $50 Billion

KKR Strikes Deal to Buy Private-Capital Fund Administrator Gen II

Luxury Senior-Housing Company Locks in a $1 Billion Buyer

Why Are Disrupters So Hard to Spot?

Reckless Politicians Stoke Baseless AI Surveillance Pricing Fears

Audi’s $89,000 Q9 Shows Chinese Competition Is Hitting the US

Ellison’s Skydance Name Change Isn’t Worth the Outrage

Disney’s Top Lawyer Is a ‘Pragmatist’ Facing His Biggest Fight Yet

Korean Soju’s Lower-Alcohol Cousin Is Growing Its Own Fan Base

These Taste Testers Have Four Legs and Picky Palates

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Morning News: October 5, 2026
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 5th, 2026 at 7:05 am

Euro Hits 17-Month Low on Region’s Fiscal, Political Risks

FROGS Is the Name of Europe’s Latest Debt Crisis

A French Crisis Would Be a Nightmare for ECB

ECB’s Lane Sees ‘Demand Destruction’ Muting Energy Impact On Inflation

Scott Bessent’s Rosy Forecasts Are Putting His Credibility at Risk

Rebuked by Bond Market, Bessent Says ‘House’ Does Not Always Win

The Fed’s Rate Hike Was a Bad Call, Not Bad Faith

Most Favored Nation Price Controls Disfavor Patients

2026 Investor’s Guide to Africa

Don’t Let Hubris Get in the Way of Ending the Iran War

Shippers Are Offering Sailors Up to $25,000 a Trip to Sneak Oil Out of the Gulf

C.H. Robinson to Buy RXO for About $5 Billion

These Energy Companies Put Oklahoma City on the Map. Now They’re Moving to Texas

Truckers Are Using Every Trick They Can to Survive Soaring Diesel Prices

How Gas, Diesel and Electricity Prices Are Squeezing American Voters

The Mighty American Consumer Is Crashing Through Inflation and Driving Growth

Gold Retains Key Reserve Status Despite Surging Bond Yields, Central Bankers Say

The Popular Jeweler That Got Caught in a Whirlwind When Gold Went Haywire

London Takes a Hit as Super Rich Worth $160 Billion Exit UK

The Only Billionaires Making Money This Year Are in Tech

Elon Musk: America Is ‘1,000% Going To Go Bankrupt’ And ‘Fail As A Country’ — But He Says 1 Powerful Force Can Save Us

The Mulleted, Meme-Loving Billionaire Behind Meta’s Hit AI App

Lockheed’s Fabled Skunk Works Integrates AI in Push to Modernize Defense

Schneider Expands in AI With Record $23 Billion Acquisition

The Web Isn’t Ready for Millions of Rule-Bending Bots

Russians Snap Up Chinese E.V.s as Ukrainian Attacks Make Fuel Scarce

How Britain Learned to Love Chinese Cars—Especially a Look-Alike Range Rover

To Make More Money, Rolls-Royce Is Aiming Higher on Price, Not Production

Mazda CX-6e Is an EV That Lets You Yell Profanities at People in Traffic

A New Crop of Solar Panels Is the U.S.’s Best Hope of Catching China

5 Challenges David Ellison Faces as He Snags His Hollywood Prize

P.&G.’s Chief on Whether Brand Loyalty Is Enough When Prices Keep Climbing

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