Will the Dems Dump Pelosi After a Defeat?

With the mid-term election only three-and-a-half months away, I noticed that the Intrade contract for the GOP to retake the House is up to 64.7. Of course, those are just odds but it does mean that “the market” sees a GOP takeover as slightly probably.
I’m curious that if the Republicans do take control of the House, would Nancy Pelosi have to depart as Minority leader? I really don’t care one way or the other but I think it’s interesting scenario, and I’m guessing she would have to depart. Taking your party to parliamentary defeat happens a lot in other political systems but it’s fairly rare in the United States.
For example, after taking his party to defeat this past May, Gordon Brown had to step down as leader of the Labour Party. The party is currently deciding who the next leader will be.
We really haven’t established much of a precedent in the U.S. When the Republicans won the House in 1994, the issue of what former Speaker Tom Foley would do wasn’t an issue since he lost his House seat as well. When the Democrats took control in 2006, former Speaker Dennis Hastert resigned his seat mid-session. But Hastert had already said that 2006 was going to be his last election so he was a lame duck anyway.
When the GOP lost the House in 1954, former Speaker Joseph Martin hung on as Minority leader until the Democrats big victory in 1958. In January 1959, he was ousted by Charles Halleck by a vote of 74 to 70. Six years later, after another big GOP defeat, Halleck was ousted by the Gerald Ford.
I guess that in the U.S. system the “Shadow Leader,” if you will, isn’t an official position although it’s often clear what people are important to listen to and they usually aren’t in the House of Representatives. I remember when Mario Cuomo was treated as the faux Shadow Leader for a few years in the late 1980s. Ronald Reagan held that position for perhaps as long as 15 years. Is Sarah Palin the current Shadow Leader? I really don’t know. But I think having those people outside of the House takes some of the heat, and light, off what the Party Leader does.

Posted by on August 16th, 2010 at 12:59 pm


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