Archive for February, 2019

  • Hershey Reaffirms Outlook For 2019
    , February 20th, 2019 at 3:01 pm

    Update from Hershey (HSY):

    In a presentation today at the 2019 Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference, Michele G. Buck, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Hershey Company (HSY), reviewed the progress the company has made against its strategic plans and the company’s 2019 imperatives to drive sustainable, profitable growth and long-term shareholder value.

    During the presentation, Buck reaffirmed the company’s full-year 2019 financial expectations for net sales and earnings per share-diluted growth previously provided in its January 31, 2019, earnings release. Full-year reported net sales are expected to increase in the 1% to 3% range, full-year reported earnings per share-diluted are expected to increase 3% to 6% and full-year adjusted earnings per share-diluted are expected to increase 5% to 7%.

    Hershey made $5.36 per share last year so the current forecast works out to an earnings range of $5.63 to $5.74 per share.

  • Today’s Fed Minutes
    , February 20th, 2019 at 2:14 pm

    Here are the minutes from the last Fed meeting. This is when the Fed appeared to pivot from its previous aggressive stance.

    The attention seems to be on the size of the Fed’s gigantic balance sheet. This is the key part: “Almost all participants thought that it would be desirable to announce before too long a plan to stop reducing the Federal Reserve’s asset holdings later this year. Such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.”

    I think this supports the notion that the Fed will leave rates alone for much of this year.

  • The Corporate Subprime Bubble
    , February 20th, 2019 at 10:45 am

    Bloomberg has an editorial addressing the growing bubble in subprime corporate debt. Here’s a sample:

    The U.S. is back in risk-taking mode. This time around, the problem is corporate debt, not mortgages — specifically, so-called leveraged loans. These are loans extended to firms that already have a lot of debt or a poor credit rating. It’s another kind of subprime financing, often used in corporate buyouts. Borrowers have ranged from Sears Roebuck to Mohawk Bingo Palace. As of December, an estimated $1.15 trillion of such loans were outstanding, more than twice as much as on the eve of the 2008 crisis.

    The boom bears striking similarities to the mortgage frenzy that preceded it. Instead of holding the debt, lenders sell it to be repackaged into so-called collateralized loan obligations, which — by allocating income into tranches with different levels of risk and return — transform a large chunk into triple-A-rated securities. Investor demand for these securities is so strong that it has pushed lenders to lower standards. They’ve largely stopped including loan covenants that, for example, require borrowers to avoid taking on too much debt or generate ample cash for interest payments.

    Some folks are claiming that “it’s different this time.” Bloomberg makes a few recommendations: stop subsidizing debt, have the Fed require banks to be better prepared and use new agencies to monitor the system.

    As Warren Buffett has said, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

  • Morning News: February 20, 2019
    , February 20th, 2019 at 7:15 am

    Putin Says Russia Will Target U.S. If It Puts Missiles in Europe

    U.S. Push for Stable Yuan May Unwind China’s Move Toward Markets

    Amid Trade Talks, China Urges U.S. to Respect its Right to Develop, Prosper

    The Big Problems Facing the Trade Talks

    Housing Is Already in a Slump. So It (Probably) Can’t Cause a Recession.

    Russian Hackers Targeted European Research Groups, Microsoft Says

    America’s Shale Boom Keeps Rolling Even as Wildcatters Save Cash

    Lockheed Unveils New F-21 Fighter Jet Configured for India

    Southwest Airlines Drops as Government Shutdown Hurts Revenue

    Apple to Target Combining iPhone, iPad and Mac Apps by 2021

    The Number That Shows What Warren Buffett Really Thinks of Berkshire Stock

    It’s Getting More Expensive to Get High

    Nick Maggiulli: How to Invest a Lump Sum

    Ben Carlson: First Mover Alpha

    Michael Batnick: Un-Complicating Investing

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Ross Stores to Report on March 5
    , February 19th, 2019 at 9:54 am

    We now have the earnings calendar set for the next few weeks.

    Hormel Foods (HRL) will report this Thursday, February 21 along with Continental Building Products (CBPX). JM Smucker (SJM) is due to report on February 26.

    Ross Stores (ROST) just announced that they’ll report on March 5.

  • Selling Is Hard
    , February 19th, 2019 at 9:43 am

    Interesting article from Bloomberg Businessweek noting that selling is the hard part of stock picking.

    The researchers looked at more than 4 million trades among 783 portfolios from 2000 to 2016 and found that stockpickers actually showed skill when buying. However, the sales by these institutional investors cost them as much as 100 basis points, or a full percentage point, of yearly returns compared with a no-skill strategy of simply selling holdings at random, according to the study Selling Fast and Buying Slow by researchers from the University of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon University, MIT, and portfolio analytics firm Inalytics Ltd. The study concluded that one of the likely reasons for the discrepancy was “asymmetric allocation of cognitive resources.” Translation: Investors spend way more time analyzing what to buy than what to sell.

    Read the whole thing.

  • Walmart Contradicts the Government
    , February 19th, 2019 at 9:08 am

    Last week, the government released a terrible retail sales report for December. I was suspicious. The report was delayed by the shutdown, and if the awful numbers were correct, why haven’t we seen confirmation in other areas?

    This morning, Walmart released a blow-out report for Q4.

    Walmart’s all-important holiday sales blew past expectations, a sign the retailer can more than hold its ground against Amazon.

    Sales in the United States grew 4.2% over the holiday stretch compared with last year, including a 43% rise in digital sales.

    Walmart said its online sales got a boost from rolling out grocery pickup to stores across the country. It also expanded delivery to reach more shoppers. More than 10% of Walmart shoppers used curbside pickup in January, according to data from Cowen.

    Walmart’s online sales increased quickly after it added pickup and delivery to some stores and acquired new digital clothing brands like Eloquii and Bare Necessities.

    The company plans to bring curbside pickup to around 1,000 more stores this year, but predicts that online sales growth will slow to 35%.

    The retail giant looks to open higher today by 3.4%.

  • Join Us for a Conference Call
    , February 19th, 2019 at 8:20 am

    Just us tomorrow at 4 pm ET for an after-market conference call. I’m excited to announce that Morgan Housel will be joining us for a discussion of all things stock market. Morgan is one of my favorite financial writers and I hope to cover a wide range of topics.

    You can register for the call here.

  • Cognizant Settles with the Government
    , February 19th, 2019 at 7:54 am

    Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) will pay $25 million to settle bribery charges. The executives named are long gone and Cognizant isn’t being charged with any crimes.

    Gordon Coburn, the company’s former president, and Steven Schwartz, its former chief legal officer, authorized a $2 million bribe to at least one government official in India to secure permits necessary for the construction of an office campus there to support roughly 17,000 employees, prosecutors said.

    “Bribery to further corporate goals is an illusory path to long-term success,” said Charles E. Cain, chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s antiforeign-bribery unit.

    Cognizant has more than 250,000 employees globally, more than half of whom work in various locations in India . Cognizant helps companies outsource their information technology and other business processes. Earlier this month, the company reported revenue of $16 billion in 2018, up 8.9% from the year prior.

    To conceal Cognizant’s role in the bribery scheme, Messrs. Coburn and Schwartz, and others, agreed to use a construction company to secure the permit, prosecutors said. The construction company would pay the bribe, and Cognizant would later reimburse the firm through disguised cost overruns on the project, located in Chennai, India, prosecutors said.

    The construction company received the permit in late June 2014; between March 2015 and January 2016 Cognizant issued several payments to the construction company, including a reimbursement for the bribe and related expenses, according to prosecutors.

    “The allegations…describe a sophisticated international bribery scheme authorized and concealed by C-suite executives of a publicly traded multinational company,” said Brian A. Benczkowski, an assistant attorney general, in a statement.

    This was a terrible episode, but the company handled it well.

  • Looking Back on My Market Poll
    , February 19th, 2019 at 7:45 am

    About an hour before the S&P 500 got to its closing low on Christmas Eve, I ran a poll asking people “How much further does the S&P 500 have to fall before hitting bottom?”

    The consensus was that we had a lot more to fall. In reality, the bear was pretty much over.