Jobless Claims and Retail Sales

Two economic reports this morning. First, unemployment claims rose to 332,000. That’s up 20,000 from last week which itself was revised higher by 2,000. Last week’s figure of 312,000 is the current pandemic low.

By the way, the unemployment figures are roughly in line with some of the numbers we saw seven years ago. In other words, we’re getting back to something that looks like normal.

The other report was retail sales. For August, retail sales rose by 0.7%. In the last year, retail sales are up 15.1%. That number surprised Wall Street. Economists had been expecting a decline of 0.8%. The number for July was revised downward from -1.1% to -1.8%.

Economists had expected that consumers cut back their activity as the delta variant continued its tear through the U.S. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks also were expected to hold back spending as in-demand goods were hard to find.

The pandemic’s impact did show up in sales at bars and restaurants, which were flat for the month though still 31.9% ahead of where they were a year ago.

However, sales were strong for most areas during the month, when back-to-school shopping generally results in a pickup in activity, especially so this year as schools prepared to welcome back students after a year of remote learning.

The headline number would have been even better without a 3.6% monthly drop in auto-related activity; excluding the sector, sales rose 1.8%, also well above the 0.1% expected gain.

Just a reminder that the Fed meets again next week.

Posted by on September 16th, 2021 at 11:17 am


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