The 10-Year Yield Retakes 1.5%

The 10-year Treasury yield crossed above 1.5%. That’s getting a lot of attention this morning. Just a few weeks ago, the 10-year yield was below 1.2%. For some context, the 10-year yield was last at 1.5% in late June, so we’re really not seeing a massive turn. At least, not yet.

The stock market is cautiously lower this morning, although the Dow is up. This is the start of the final week of the third quarter. We’re seeing a familiar pattern where Energy stocks are doing the best while the rest of the market is pretty much flat. It’s still early.

Later today, two Fed officials, Lael Brainard and John Williams, will be speaking about the economy. The former is sometimes mentioned as a replacement for Jerome Powell. The latter is the head of the New York Fed, which is first among equals at the Fed.

This morning we learned that despite supply constraints, durable goods rose sharply last month. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 0.6%. Instead, durable goods orders rose by 1.8%. That’s the largest increase since May. This was the 15th increase in the 16 months since the economy reached rock bottom.

Core capital goods, which excludes aircraft, rose by 0.5%. Over the last year, durable goods orders are up close to 25%.

Posted by on September 27th, 2021 at 11:46 am


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