CWS Market Review – June 10, 2025

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On Friday, the S&P 500 closed above 6,000. To be exact, the index closed at 6,000.36. Not many people expected the market to recover so quickly. The last time the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 was on February 21.

On Monday and Tuesday, it closed even higher. We’re now less than 2% from a fresh all-time high. Looking back at the panic this year, it all seems rather silly. We didn’t know what the tariff policy was going to be, and we were less sure of the potential impact.

In any event, investors got very scared. In just 48 calendar days, the S&P 500 lost 18.9%. Then in 63 calendar days, it gained back 21.2%. (Thanks to the lower base, we’re still not quite at a new high despite the gain being greater than the loss. Don’t blame me. Blame math.)

I wonder if a Rip Van Winkle-type of investor who had slept through the entire period would have noticed any difference. By the way, notice how much smaller the high-low bars have gotten since April. We aren’t seeing any dramatic intra-day reversals like we did this past spring.

The U.S. Economy Added 139,000 Jobs Last Month

On Friday, we got the jobs report for May, and it was pretty good. There had been some trepidation going into this report because the ADP report had been quite weak.

Nevertheless, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 139,000 net new jobs last month. That was 14,000 more than expected although that was a very conservative expected number. The jobs number for April was revised lower to a gain of 147,000.

Bear in mind that recessions usually align with job losses, not slower gains. There are no signs that we’re in a recession. Of course, that could change.

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%. I dug into the data and found that if we look at a few more decimal places, then the jobless rate is the highest in 43 months (see below). Although that sounds like a lot, the unemployment rate has really been quite steady. I also like to look at the broader U-6 unemployment rate, and that stayed at 7.8%.

Probably the best news is that average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month. That was 0.1% better than expected. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up 3.9%. That’s not bad, but I’d like to see it improve.

Here are some details:

Nearly half the job growth came from health care, which added 62,000, even higher than its average gain of 44,000 over the past year. Leisure and hospitality contributed 48,000 while social assistance added 16,000.

On the downside, government lost 22,000 jobs as efforts to cull the federal workforce by President Donald Trump and the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency began to show an impact.

The number for April was revised downward by 30,000. The number for March was revised lower by 65,0000. The household survey showed a decline of 696,000 workers. There was a decline of 623,000 full-time folks and an increase of 33,000 parttime workers.

Overall, this was a good report although there are a few signs of weakness. The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and I strongly doubt they’ll make any changes to interest rates. In fact, I don’t see any rate cuts coming in July either.

However, the meeting after that, in mid-September, could be a different story. There’s a decent chance that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25%, but a lot can happen over the next three months. We’ll learn more tomorrow when the government releases the CPI report for May.

Wall Street Goes Nuts for Circle

Wall Street has gone absolutely bonkers recently over the debut of Circle Internet Group (CRCL). The company is a stablecoin issuer which means its coins are tied to the value of the dollar. Hence, the prices are “stable.” This is a major difference from bitcoin which is highly volatile.

What I find interesting about the Circle-mania is that this appears to be another sign of crypto entering the mainstream. Years ago, I think crypto was wrongly seen as a plaything of computer nerds. Now, however, it may be taking on an important role in the financial services sector. If all goes well, then consumers can use stablecoins for fast and secure transactions.

Basically, Circle provides a platform that lets businesses integrate stablecoins seamlessly into their operations.

The stock took off from an offering price of $31 per share to a high of $138 per share. Well, that’s not bad for three days of work (CRCL closed lower for the first time today). The environment has also been helped by a crypto-friendly administration in Washington. The company raised $1.1 billion.

Since the Circle IPO, a few stablecoin ETFs have already rushed in to join the frenzy. I won’t be surprised to see some larger and more established firms issue stablecoins in the coming months.

Circle is the issuer of USDC. In the stablecoin arena, Circle is #2 to Tether. Circle currently has $60 billion in circulation while Tether is up to $150 billion.

Circle makes its money by investing its reserves in U.S. Treasuries. At some point, stablecoins may be thought of as cash, just expressed slightly differently.

Bloomberg says there are now 80 ETFs that track digital assets. One year ago, Bitcoin was trading around $25,000. It recently got as high as $110,000.

Tomorrow, the Senate is scheduled to vote on an important piece of legislation that addresses the stablecoin industry. The bill is backed by the Trump administration and the stablecoin industry.

According to Bloomberg, “The stablecoin bill would set up rules for dollar-pegged tokens used to make payments. The stablecoins would have to be backed one to one with reserves held in short-term investments like federal debt, overseen by federal or state regulators.”

My chief concern about any stablecoin is reserve management. This is why transparency is so important.

The bill has support from both sides of the aisle although some Democrats say the legislation could damage the financial sector. My view is to let 1,000 flowers bloom. If it has a role, the market will quickly adapt.

Casey’s Soars on Earnings Beat

Sixteen months ago, I highlighted Casey’s General Stores (CASY) in the newsletter. I didn’t know the company very well but some friends in the Midwest raved about Casey’s, and it’s very popular there.

It’s basically a gas station masquerading as a pizza shop. Or vice versa. It really doesn’t matter.

The idea is simple. If you drive a car, you’ll need gas. If you’re going to go to a gas station, you might as well choose the place that has pizza as well.

Casey’s is based in Iowa and the stores are mostly in Iowa, Missouri and downstate Illinois. The company also has an impressive presence in the other Midwestern and Plains states. There are now over 2,700 locations in 17 states.

Casey’s prefers to locate in small towns where there’s less competition. There isn’t a Casey’s within several hundred miles of Wall Street.

The stock has been a huge winner over the years. Since 1991, Casey has returned more than 500-fold.

I bring up Casey’s because the stock soared 11.6% higher today after it reported very good earnings. After yesterday’s closing bell, Casey’s said it made $2.63 per share for its fiscal Q4. Wall Street had been expecting $1.95 per share.

Revenues were up 11% to nearly $4 billion which was also better than expected. Casey also increased its quarterly dividend by 14% to 57 cents per share. This is a neat little stock that’s not well-known on Wall Street. The stock is up nearly 60% since I profiled it last year.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on June 10th, 2025 at 6:11 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.