Author Archive

  • Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
    , October 7th, 2005 at 5:55 pm

    Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Very cute. I give it 3-1/2 stars.
    wg2.jpg

  • Our Buy List
    , October 7th, 2005 at 4:52 pm

    We had another market-beating day. Sure, we barely beat the market, but it still counts. The Buy List was up 0.40% today compared with 0.37% for the S&P 500. For the week (and month and quarter), we’re down -2.14% compared with a loss of -2.68% for the S&P 500. Today, fifteen stocks went up, nine went down, and little Frontier Airlines (FRNT) was unchanged. Our best stock today was Expeditors (EXPD), and several of the financial stocks brought up the rear. Generally, it was a pretty uneventful day.
    Next week should be a good week as Wall Street finally gets some earnings reports. Apple’s (AAPL) earnings on Tuesday will get a lot of attention. The first of our stocks will start reporting the week after next. On the economic front, the CPI will come out on Thursday.

  • Gilead Sciences
    , October 7th, 2005 at 10:34 am

    Gilead Sciences (GILD) has been a superstar stocks for several years now. The company has able to maintain gross margin around 87%, and despite running a loss for several years, operating margins are now running about 50%.
    Barrons reports that Gilead is getting also a boost thanks to governments stockpiling Tamiflu, the company’s influenza drug.

    Founded in 1987, the California-based biotechnology giant develops and sells medications that treat infectious diseases like AIDS and hepatitis.
    But Gilead shuns protein-based therapies and concentrates on small molecules, which are chemical compounds and thus normally the realm of large pharmaceutical companies.
    “This is what happens when you focus and you are able to introduce several products in the same category,” says Yaron Werber, an analyst with Citigroup.
    Gilead invented Tamiflu, the popular antiviral drug, but licensed it to Roche Holding Ltd. in 1996.
    Between 2001 and 2004, Tamiflu’s annual sales were $200 million, which earned Gilead royalties of between 7% and 11%.
    But fear of the Avian flu and a possible pandemic has prompted 30 governments, including that of the U.S., to stockpile the drug.
    Gilead has launched a legal battle to wrest control of Tamiflu from Roche. If it’s successful, that would be a major coup: Citigroup’s Werber projects Tamiflu’s sales will reach $850 million in 2005.
    Meanwhile, Gilead’s AIDS drugs — Viread, Emtriva and Truvada — remain the company’s crown jewels, accounting for 69% of sales, or $908 million, in 2004.
    And the most glittering prize appears to be Truvada, which combines Viread and Emtriva, Gilead’s older AIDS drugs, into one pill.

  • Apple’s Secret Announcement
    , October 7th, 2005 at 8:48 am

    Next Tuesday Apple Computer (AAPL) will report its earnings. On Wednesday, Apple will make a major announcement to unveil “just one more thing.” The early buzz is that this will be the long-anticipated video version of the iPod. Or it could be a change to Apple’s computer lineup. Business Week has more. Piper Jaffray expects Apple to ship 858,000 iPod nano units in the fourth quarter and 5 million units in the first quarter.

  • Unemployment Rate up to 5.1%
    , October 7th, 2005 at 8:33 am

    The is the first look at Katrina’s impact on the economy. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 35,000 last month. However, payrolls were revised higher by 211,000 for August. This means, the economy was very strong before the hurricanes.

    Economists predicted payrolls would drop by 150,000 last month from the previously reported 169,000 gain for August, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 25,000 to 350,000. The jobless rate, which the department determines through a separate sampling of households instead of employers, matched the median forecast.
    Difficulties in surveying the hurricane-stricken areas may have distorted payrolls figures, economists said. “We’ll know more about the hurricanes’ impact when local employment estimates become available later this month,” said Philip Rones, deputy commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  • Election Fraud at Quality Systems?
    , October 6th, 2005 at 8:27 pm

    At Quality Systems (QSII), six of management’s eight candidate were just elected to the board of directors. But a dissident group, led by Dr. Ahmed Hussein, may sue for a recount. The Motley Fool is on the case.

    The problem, according to documents obtained by The Motley Fool, is that various brokerages submitted unsigned proxies that were voted in favor of the company’s slate. These proxies represent shares, held in street name at the brokerages, that individual shareholders failed to submit themselves. According to Dr. Hussein, unsigned proxies cannot be counted in a disputed election, and without those votes—approximately 832,000 out of a total 13.1 million shares outstanding—all three of his nominees would have been elected.

  • More Good News for Frontier
    , October 6th, 2005 at 2:58 pm

    Market Pulse: Frontier Airlines September traffic, load factor rise
    Thursday October 6, 1:40 pm ET
    By Carla Mozee
    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Frontier Airlines on Thursday said traffic in September rose 20.9% to 553.7 billion revenue passenger miles. Its load factor rose 6.6 percentage points to 71%. Capacity at the Denver-based air carrier increased 9.6% to 779.4 billion available seat miles.

  • Gold is Up, Oil is Down
    , October 6th, 2005 at 1:03 pm

    Today’s shaping up to be a lot like yesterday, only more so. Oil is down again, however gold is rallying. On our Buy List, Frontier (FRNT) is having a very good day. Thor Industries (THO) is also doing well. Lower oil prices are clearly helping us. I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil dip below $60 soon.
    The CEO at Wright Medical Group (WMGI) said that he’s going to step down. This comes one day after his company announced a major earnings warning. This hurt our medical stocks. Zimmer (ZMH), Stryker (SYK) and Biomet (BMET) are all lower again today. However, UBS initiated coverage of Medtronic (MDT) and St. Jude (STJ), each with buys.
    Despite the gold rally, financials are having a decent day. Golden West (GDW) was upgraded by Wachovia, however Commerce Bancorp (CBH) was downgraded by Oppenheimer. In the tech sector, Bear Stearns is maintaining a “peer perform” on eBay (EBAY).

  • A To-Do List for Fannie Mae
    , October 6th, 2005 at 9:50 am

    Fannie Mae (FNM) has to be one of the most disappointing stocks in recent years. It wasn’t that long ago that Fannie was regarded as one of the best stocks on Wall Street. The stock has slid from nearly $80 a year ago to $60 three months ago, to $41 today. What does it have to do to get back on track? Business Week has a to-do list.

    No, Fannie Mae is not about to implode. Despite late September news stories alleging extensive new accounting violations and a drop from $77 to $41 in the stock price in the past year, the nation’s largest mortgage-finance company is well-capitalized enough to handle any downturn in the housing market and is probably still profitable, say analysts.
    Only probably still profitable? That’s merely most analysts’ best guess, since Fannie doesn’t have any recent earnings statements for them to review. In December, 2004, regulators required Fannie to admit that it had broken accounting rules and to promise to restate past results. It has yet to reissue clean statements for 2004 — or file any new ones since last December.
    Fannie’s investor relations Web site includes this startling disclaimer: “Investors and others should no longer rely on Fannie Mae’s previously issued annual and quarterly financial statements.”

  • Today’s Market
    , October 6th, 2005 at 9:25 am

    Yuck! That wasn’t pretty. The market dropped over 123 points yesterday. The commodity sector, and oils in particular, were hardest hit. The Dow Energy index dropped 3.6%, and the tech index lost 3.1%.
    It seems as if there was almost a delayed reaction to Tuesday’s big drop in oil prices. Oil is now at a two-month low, and I think it’s headed even lower. As oil falls, lower fuel costs will help the better airline stocks, particularly my favorite Frontier Airlines (FRNT). Remember, the price of crude peaked before the hurricanes hit. Oil is already down another $1 a barrel this morning.
    Some of our health care stocks got dinged yesterday when Wright Medical (WMGI) said that its third-quarter earnings will be significantly below Wall Street’s estimate. The stock got nailed for a 20% loss. This spilled over into some of our medical stocks like Medtronic (MDT), Stryker (SYK) and Biomet (BMET). However, Wright is a very small company and its problems shouldn’t be taken as a reflection of the entire industry.
    This morning, Wal-Mart (WMT) said that Hurricane Katrina will shave one penny a share off earnings. Also, GE (GE) said that it will hit the high end of its third quarter forecast of 44 cents a share. The company said that earnings for the entire year will come in at $1.81 to $1.83 a share.
    The market should rally today, but the big news will be tomorrow’s employment report and next week’s earnings.