Author Archive

  • Investing on the First Day of the Month
    , April 1st, 2011 at 2:56 pm

    The S&P 500 has risen on the first trading day of the month for 19 of the last 24 months — and today looks like it will be another “up” for the index.

    How well does the market perform on the first day of the month?

    Let’s put it this way: Since 1996, the S&P 500’s return on the first day of the month has outpaced the rest of the month combined…by far…even though the days in the rest of the month outnumber first days by a ratio of 20-to-1.

    The total gain for the 183 first days of the month is 76.49%. The gain for the other 3,657 days comes to just 21.97%.

  • “Picking Up Speed”
    , April 1st, 2011 at 11:23 am

    David Leonhardt writes at the New York Times, “Job growth is picking up speed, reaching 216,000 in March.”

    This is technically correct. The economy created 216,000 jobs in March compared with 194,000 in February. In other words, the economy created 11.3% more jobs in March than in February.

    However Leonhardt neglects to mention that March has 10.7% more days than February does.

  • Introducing Gmail Motion
    , April 1st, 2011 at 10:31 am

  • March ISM = 61.2
    , April 1st, 2011 at 10:04 am

    Today’s ISM report was 61.2 for the month of March. This is the 20th-straight reading over 50. Last month’s number of 61.4 was tied for the best reading since 1983.

    Even though we’re down slightly from that, we’re still at a very high level. In the last 30 years, there have only been 22 months were the ISM has been 60 or more — and we’ve now done that for three-straight months.

  • March Payrolls +216,000
    , April 1st, 2011 at 8:34 am

    Today’s jobs report:

    216,000 jobs were created last month which beat expectations; 230,000 were in the private sector. The unemployment rate ticked down from 8.9% to 8.8%.

    Here’s another way of looking at it: The official recovery will soon turn two years old. Nonfarm payrolls went from being 8.72 million below the high to now being only 7.26 million below the high.

  • CWS Market Review – April 1, 2011
    , April 1st, 2011 at 8:02 am

    The first quarter of 2011 is now officially on the books and it was a very good one for our Buy List. Once again, patient investing and sticking with high-quality stocks paid off.

    For the first three months of the year, the S&P 500 gained 5.42% while our Buy List gained 7.62%. That’s an outperformance of 220 basis points which is pretty good for such a diversified portfolio. Including dividends, we gained 8.06% to the S&P 500’s 5.92%. Of course, I should mention that we accomplished this without making one single change to the Buy List all year, nor will we make any changes for the next nine months.

    Our Buy List yields slightly less than the S&P 500, but it’s not a very big gap. Annualized, the S&P 500 out-yields us at about 1.9% to our 1.6%. If this matters to you, the beta of the Buy List was 1.035 for the first three months of the year. (Personally, I gave up on that mumbo-jumbo years ago.)

    My goal for the Buy List is to beat the S&P 500 by a few percentage points each year and do it with slightly less risk. It’s an odd notion but an important lesson for investors: if you don’t try and swing for the fences, but rather just try to punch out singles, you can do much better. In fact, trying to go deep all the time actively hurts you.

    Now let’s look at the long-term record: For the five-and-a-quarter years that I’ve been tracking our Buy List on the blog, we’re up 44.83% to the S&P 500’s 18.62%. That’s a hefty out-performance. (Our long-term beta is 0.943, again, to anyone who cares.)

    To restate the rules of the Buy List, which have been the same rules since we started, the Buy List contains 20 stocks. We don’t make any changes during the trading year. At the end of each year, we add and delete just five stocks which keeps our turnover very low. It’s simple, but it works.

    Now let’s turn to recent happenings on Wall Street. This past week was fairly quiet for the stock market and for our Buy List, but that will change soon. Earnings season kicks off in a few weeks and most of our stocks will report their earnings for the first quarter.

    We did, however, get one very strong earnings report this week from Jos. A Bank Clothiers ($JOSB). This report was a crucial one for the company since it covers the holiday shopping season. Usually, JOSB makes about half of their annual profit during December-January-February period.

    For the quarter, Joey Banks said it made $1.47 per share which was four cents more than Wall Street’s consensus. In the CWS Market Review from three weeks ago, I said that Wall Street’s consensus was probably too low. I said I expected earnings of $1.50 per share or more. I was wrong on the $1.50 or more, but I was right that Wall Street was too low.

    JOSB is a very impressive company. I’ll warn that the stock can be highly volatile, but the business results are impressive. For 2010, earnings-per-share jumped 20% to $3.08 compared with $2.56 in 2009. JOSB has no debt, and earnings have risen for the last 19 quarters in a row and for 37 of the last 38 quarters. That’s a very good record.

    Three weeks ago, I urged investors not to chase JOSB but rather to wait for a pullback below $45 per share. As it turned out, the stock did indeed pull back to a low of $44.93 before resuming its climb. At Wednesday’s opening bell, the stock gapped up to a high of $52.50 before drifting lower. Since then, it’s mostly bounced around between $50 and $51.

    In light of the strong earnings report, I’m going to raise my Buy Price to $50 per share. Once again, I suggest letting JOSB come to you. Please be disciplined here. Chasing stocks you want to own is a sucker’s game. It’s hard watching the good ones pull away from you, but sometimes you need to do it.

    I think it’s interesting that Oracle ($ORCL) followed a similar pattern to JOSB’s pattern. If you recall, Oracle posted very good earnings (as predicted by moi). As I expected, ORCL made a new 52-week high of $34.10. Since then, it’s pulled back and found a range roughly between $33 and $33.50. Last week, I raised my buy price to $34 which I think is a good place. Oracle is a very strong company and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it break out soon.

    The next Buy List earnings report will most likely be from Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) and that’s due on April 6th. The company said to expect earnings to range between 91 cents and 95 cents per share. My take: That sounds about right, though maybe a little low.

    What I’ll be most interested in hearing is if they give guidance for this year. If so, I’m looking for something between $3.30 and $3.40 per share. BBBY tends to give conservative guidance. I’m not ready to offer a specific buy price on BBBY until I hear more from them. Fundamentally, this is a very sound company and I expect the shares to do well.

    I like all 20 stocks on the Buy List, but a few stand out as particular bargains. I like Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) below $60. Sysco ($SYY) hasn’t performed well lately and I think it’s looking pretty cheap. It could be a $30 stock. You probably won’t be surprised to hear that I like AFLAC ($AFL) at this reduced price. The company will report earnings on April 27th and we’ll see proof of how well this outfit is managed.

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

  • The Nasdaq and ICE Bid for the NYSE
    , April 1st, 2011 at 7:58 am

    This is getting interesting. In February, Deutsche Boerse agreed to buy the New York Stock Exchange for $9.53 billion. Now the Nasdaq has teamed up with ICE to offer a counter bid of $11.3 billion.

    Under the terms of the proposed acquisition, NYSE Euronext stockholders would receive $14.24 in cash, plus 0.4069 shares of NASDAQ OMX common stock and 0.1436 shares of ICE common stock for each NYSE Euronext share.

  • Morning News: April 1, 2011
    , April 1st, 2011 at 7:43 am

    Yen Falls 7th Day, Franc Drops as Data Seen Backing Recovery

    Investors React to Irish Bank Plan

    U.K. Manufacturing Growth Slows Sharply

    EU Appeals WTO Ruling Finding U.S. Aid to Boeing Was Illegal

    Portugal Pays Up to Sell Bonds

    Foreign Banks Tapped Fed’s Secret Lifeline Most at Crisis Peak

    Oil Reaches 30-Month High on Strong China Data, Libya Conflict

    Nasdaq, ICE Top Deutsche Boerse with $11.3 Billion NYSE Bid

    Report Criticizes High Pay at Fannie and Freddie

    Corn Rises on Concern Higher Acreage Will Fail to Boost Stocks

    Immelt Says GE’s 2011 Tax Rate to Be ‘Much Higher’ as Losses End

    Glencore Gets HK Exchange Nod for Planned $10 Billion IPO

    Toyota Profit to Be Reduced by Quake, Japan Auto-Sales Plunge

    Logitech Falls Most in More Than 7 Years on Lower Forecasts

    Joshua Brown: Not-So-Private Payrolls

    Paul Kedrosky: Research Productivity Around the World

    James Altucher: Why Are Larry Page and I So Different? (or…why didn’t Google buy my company?)

  • Best Q1 in 13 Years
    , March 31st, 2011 at 4:59 pm

    I apologize for the lack of posting this week, but honestly, not much has been going on. The market finished its last day of the quarter today and Wall Street had its best first quarter since 1998.

    For the first three months of 2011, the S&P 500 gained 5.42% (not including dividends) and our Buy List gained 7.62%. Including dividends, our Buy List gained 8.06% compared with 5.92% for the S&P 500. And if this means anything to you, our beta so far is 1.035.

    For the five-and-a-quarter years of the Buy List, we’re up 44.83% compared with 18.62% for the S&P 500. Our long-term beta is 0.943.

    Historically, when the market gains between 5% and 7% in the first quarter of the year, it averages another 7.1% gain for the rest of the year.

    I’ll note that Oracle ($ORCL) gapped up a week ago after its earnings announcement. The stock, however, drifted lower on Friday and this past Monday. Since then, in almost a delayed reaction to its earnings news, the shares have slowly rallied.

    Joe Banks ($JOSB) looked like it was behaving the same way as Oracle—jumping on earnings then drifting back. However, JOSB seems to have found some support around $51 per share.

    I should add that being diversified has helped us out a lot this year. Of our 20 stocks on the Buy List, 14 are up and six are down for the year. Please take note. It doesn’t take much to make sure your portfolio is well-diversified.

    And by the way, being diversified doesn’t mean owning Apple ($AAPL) and Google ($GOOG). You need to own different industries as well (says the guy who stupidly left energy off his Buy List).

  • Morning News: March 31, 2011
    , March 31st, 2011 at 7:30 am

    Currency Moves Highlight Global Divide

    ECB’s Quaden Says in Europe ‘A Crisis Is Needed to Progress’

    Irish Government Said to Weigh Merging Allied Irish With EBS

    An Irish Lesson for Portugal’s Rescuers

    Japan Extra Budgets May Top 10 Trillion Yen, Special Tax Eyed

    U.S. Is Urged to Speed Up Drilling Permits Process, FT Reports

    A.I.G.’s Chief Calls Fed Rejection a ‘Huge Problem’

    U.S. ADP March National Employment Report

    Microsoft Adds Voice to EU’s Google Probe

    Google Settles With FTC, Unveils New Social Tool

    A Rapid Ascent at Berkshire

    Vodafone Pays $5 Billion for Essar Stake

    Hennes & Mauritz’s Profit Drops 30%

    10 Best-Performing Nasdaq Stocks of 2011

    Paul Kedrosky: Patent Reform: Romance vs Pragmatism