Posts Tagged ‘f’

  • Ford U.S. Sales Rose 13%
    , September 4th, 2012 at 11:58 am

    Good news for Ford Motor ($F):

    Ford said it sold 197,249 vehicles in August in the U.S., a 13% improvement from both last year’s 175,220 and July’s total of 173,966.

    The Ford brand, the company’s largest, saw a 13% sales improvement, while Lincoln brand sales grew 1.7%.

    Company-wide, August car sales rose 7.1% as truck sales improved 6.1%. Utility-vehicle sales jumped 28%.

    Ford Fusion sales grew 21% last month, while sales of its best-selling vehicle, the Ford F-Series, were up 19%. Fiesta sales dropped 28%.

    August had 27 sales days, while the year-ago month had 26 sales days.

    Strong sales of the Ford brand have helped the auto maker’s results in recent months. But Ford reported in July its second-quarter earnings fell 57% as its overseas operations and a higher tax rate held back strong results from North America. The auto maker also lowered its full-year profit forecast as well as its budget for capital spending.

  • Ford Earns 30 Cents Per Share
    , July 25th, 2012 at 11:17 am

    Ford Motor‘s ($F) earnings are out. We knew they were going to be bad; the only question was how bad. The answer: not as bad as feared. For Q2, Ford earned 30 cents per share which was two cents more than Wall Street’s forecast. Obviously, the big problem is Europe where Ford is bleeding red ink. In North America, however, business is going pretty well.

    Ford said it earned $1 billion in the quarter compared to $2.4 billion in the same period last year. While its core North American business continued to perform well, it reported a loss of $404 million in Europe.

    The automaker now expects to lose more than $1 billion in Europe this year, as increasingly worse sales there drag down what is otherwise a turnaround.

    “The magnitude of this loss will be affected by a number of factors, including the overall economic environment, competitive actions, and Ford’s response to those developments,” the company said in a statement.

    European car sales have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, and most automakers are struggling with overcapacity there. Ford said the region’s problems are “more structural than cyclical” and would not improve any time soon.

    Ford’s chief financial officer, Robert Shanks, called the deteriorating market conditions in Europe “very, very serious.”

    The problem here isn’t the operations of the company; it’s the weak growth in Europe. The reason I’m not terribly worried about Ford is that this is a problem not endemic to Ford. I continue to believe this is a very cheap stock. The market, however, isn’t yet convinced. Once Ford is able to put together some profitable quarters from overseas, I think the stock will respond.

  • Why I’m Staying Away from Dell
    , July 9th, 2012 at 12:23 pm

    One of my more embarrassing investments was Dell ($DELL). I still have nightmares. I totally missed the story going on there and I rode the stock to a big loss. But with investing, we always want to learn from our mistakes.

    Dell’s stock currently appears to be a very good bargain, but I want to tell you why I’m not going near it. Wall Street currently expects the company to earn $2.03 per share for the fiscal year ending in January 2014. That means Dell is going for just over six times next year’s earnings. But those estimates used to be a lot higher.

    In May, Dell’s earnings report was a complete dud. They earned 43 cents per share which was three cents below estimates. Wall Street hacked the stock from $15 to $12 per share.

    Dell is a good example of a stock that appears to be a deep value stock, but we haven’t yet seen signs that the profits are still strong. Investors shouldn’t be drawn to Dell solely by the low share price. Remember that a trend will mostly likely last longer than you thought possible.

    I have no interest in trying to pick the exact bottom. I can’t do that and I don’t know anyone who can. But I can spot a troubled company that’s able to muddle through. Until Dell gives us solid evidence that its business is still growing strongly, then I won’t go near it.

    Value investing isn’t just about price. I’m perfectly willing to have someone else make the first 20% or 30% in a stock. What I want to see is proof of a strong business. Note how I’m still a firm believer in Ford despite all of its troubles. The reason is that the firm’s business is fundamentally sound. I was also impressed that they paid a dividend. Dell could improve its image in my eyes if they did the same.

    The equation is price and proof. We need to see both.

  • Ford CEO Alan Mulally on Bailouts
    , June 26th, 2012 at 10:56 am

  • My Views on Ford
    , June 16th, 2012 at 9:52 am

  • Ford Sales Rise 13%
    , June 1st, 2012 at 1:43 pm

    While the market is melting down today, Ford ($F) continues to turn out impressive results.

    Ford Motor Co. says its U.S. sales rose 13 percent in May on strong demand for its F-Series pickups and SUVs.

    F-Series sales rose 29 percent over last May. Ford says demand for trucks has followed an increase in new home construction since the start of this year.

    Sales of the Transit Connect commercial van were also up 53 percent over last year. Sales of the Edge crossover rose 24 percent.

    Car sales saw smaller gains. Sales of the Focus small car were up 11 percent.

    One bright spot in Ford’s car lineup was the Mustang, which saw a 58-percent increase as the summer driving season begins.

    Ford is currently under $10.20. Wall Street expects them to earn $1.49 this year and $1.73 next year.

  • CWS Market Review – June 1, 2012
    , June 1st, 2012 at 9:18 am

    This morning, the government reported that the U.S. economy created just 69,000 jobs in May. This was well below expectations, and last month’s numbers were revised downward as well. The national employment rate ticked up from 8.1% to 8.2%. That’s just lousy, and it’s yet more data in a run of below-average economic news.

    Before anyone gets too worked up over the jobs numbers, let me remind you that these are very imprecise estimates. The media breathlessly reports these figures as if they were handed down from Mount Sinai, but as Jeff Miller notes, the margin of error for these reports is exceedingly wide. The numbers are also subject to large revisions in the coming months.

    Still, we have to adjust ourselves to the reality that the economy isn’t doing as well as most folks believed a few weeks ago. The jobs gains simply aren’t there. The other negative economic news this week included a sharp drop in consumer confidence, a rise in first-time claims for unemployment insurance and a negative revision to first-quarter GDP. The last one is old news since we’re already into the back-end of the second quarter.

    Treasury Yields Hit an All-Time Low

    I can’t say that I find the sluggish economic news surprising. In the CWS Market Review from two weeks ago, I wrote that economically sensitive cyclical stocks had been badly lagging the market. This is an important lesson for investors because by following the relative strength of different market sectors, we can almost see coded messages the market is sending us. In this case, investors were bailing out of cyclical stocks while the overall market wasn’t harmed nearly as much. Now we see why.

    Since February 3rd, the S&P 500 is down by 2.6%, but the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) is off by more than 11%. Looking at the numbers more closely, we can see that the Energy and Materials sectors have been sustaining the most damage. ExxonMobil ($XOM), for example, lost over $30 billion in market cap in May. The price for oil slid 17% for the month thanks to weak demand from Europe. Interestingly, the Industrials had been getting pummeled, but they’ve started to stabilize a bit in the past few weeks.

    Tied to the downturn in cyclical stocks is the amazing strength of Treasury bonds. On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond got as low as 1.54% which is the lowest yield in the history of the United States. The previous low came in November 1945, and that’s when the government worked to keep interest rates artificially low. A little over one year ago, the 10-year yield was over 3.5%. Some analysts are now saying the yield could soon fall under 1%.

    Don’t blame the Federal Reserve for the current plunge in yields. While the Fed is currently engaged in its Operation Twist where it sells short-term notes and buys long-term bonds, that program is far too small to have such a large impact on Treasury rates. The current Treasury rally is due to concerns about our economy and the desire from investors in Europe to find a safe haven for their cash. I strongly urge investors to stay away from U.S. Treasuries. There’s simply no reward for you there. Consider that the real return is negative for TIPs that come due 15 years from now. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is going for 11 times next year’s earnings estimate. That translates to an earnings yield of 9%.

    The latest swing in opinion seems to believe that Greece will give staying in the euro another shot. It’s hard to say what will happen since we have new elections in two weeks. Still, I think the country will at least try to keep the euro. The reason is that Greece’s economy is very small compared to the rest of Europe. If it leaves the euro, the headaches involved will be too much to bother with.

    The real issue confronting Europe is Spain’s trouble which can’t so easily be swept under the rug. Their banking system is a mess. Think of us as reliving 2008 with Greece being Lehman Brothers and Spain being AIG. The major difference with this analogy is that Europe may not be able to bail out Spain even if it wanted to. So far, the Spanish government is putting up a brave front and is strongly resisting any form of a bailout. The politicians there obviously see how well that played out with public opinion in Greece.

    In Germany, the two-year yield just turned negative (ours is still positive by 27 basis points). While much of Europe is in recession (unemployment in the eurozone is currently 11%), and China’s juggernaut is slowing down (this year may be the slowest growth rate since 1999), there’s still little evidence that the U.S. economy is close to receding. We’re just growing very, very slowly.

    The stock market performed terribly in May. The Dow only rose five times for the month which is the fewest up days in a month since January 1968. The S&P 500 had its worst month since last April. But we need to remember that the U.S. dollar was very strong last month. It’s probably more correct to say that the dollar is less weak than everybody else, but that still translates to high prices for dollars. So in terms of other currencies, the U.S. equity market didn’t do so poorly.

    Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Disappoints

    We had one Buy List earnings report this past week: Jos. A. Bank Clothiers ($JOSB). The company had already told us that the quarter was running slow, so that muted my expectations. For their fiscal Q1, Joey Bank earned 53 cents per share which missed Wall Street’s consensus by nine cents per share. Quarterly revenue rose by 4.2% to $208.91 million. But the important metric to watch is comparable stores sales, and that fell by 1%. That’s not good.

    Shares of JOSB dropped on Wednesday and stabilized some on Thursday. I’m not happy with how this company is performing and it’s near the top of my list for names to purge from the Buy List for next year. Still, I won’t act rashly. The company has said that this quarter is off to a good start: “So far the second quarter has started out much better than the first quarter. For May, both our comparable store sales and Direct Marketing sales are up compared to the same period last year, continuing the positive trend established in the last five weeks of the first quarter. However, Father’s Day, the most important selling period of the quarter, is still ahead of us.” I’m lowering my buy price from $52 to $48 per share.

    Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) broke out to a new all-time high this past week. On Tuesday, the stock got as high as $74.67. It’s our #1 performer for year and is up nearly 25% YTD. The stock is an excellent buy below $75 per share, but I won’t move the buy price until I see the next earnings report which is due out on June 20th.

    Two other Buy List stocks I like right now are Ford ($F) and Oracle ($ORCL). Ford has been doing so well that it’s actually having a hard time keeping up with demand. I’m expecting a strong earnings report from Oracle later this month. The May quarter, which is their fiscal fourth, is traditionally their strong quarter. Oracle is an excellent buy under $30 per share.

    Before I go, let me say a quick word about Facebook ($FB). In last week’s CWS Market Review, I told you to stay away from the stock, and I was right as the shares have continued to fall. The stock got as low as $26.83 on Thursday. I don’t think Facebook is an attractive stock to own until it reaches $17 to $20 per share. Until then, keep your distance!

    That’s all for now. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • CWS Market Review – May 25, 2012
    , May 25th, 2012 at 7:02 am

    Boy has May been a frustrating month for stocks! The S&P 500 nearly went for an entire month without two up days in a row. We finally ended that run this week but the mess in Greece seems to be getting worse, and Facebook ($FB) had one of the worst initial public offerings in years. This IPO was a disaster for individual investors.

    Fortunately, the stock market regained some of its footing this week. The S&P 500 managed to rise four days in a row and closed at 1,320.68 on Thursday. The index is still down nearly 7% from the four-year high it reached in early April. What’s not getting a lot of attention is that analysts have been increasing their earnings estimates for next year. The S&P 500 is currently going for about 11 times next year’s earnings estimate. That’s a good bargain, but I prefer to be skeptical about earnings estimates that far into the future. Still, it’s an interesting trend to note.

    In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll talk about some of the issues surrounding Facebook’s IPO and I’ll tell you why I think the stock is a terrible, rotten, awful deal for investors. This IPO almost perfectly captures everything that’s wrong with Wall Street today.

    As messy as things seems to be, the good news for us is that well-run companies are still doing well. On our Buy List, for example, we had a very nice earnings report this week from Medtronic ($MDT). In a few weeks, I expect to see the company raise its dividend for the 35th year in a row. Other standouts from our Buy List include Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) which is close to a new all-time high. Also, Reynolds American ($RAI) has snapped back very impressively. But first, let’s take a closer look at the stock that’s on everyone’s mind: Facebook.

    Don’t Invest in Facebook

    Last Friday, Facebook ($FB) started trading as public company. This was the dream of all the investors who put money into the social networking company that was started in a Harvard dorm room eight years ago. Even before the shares started trading, there were problems. This was the second-largest IPO in U.S. history and the market was flooded with orders. The heavy demand caused trading in FB to be delayed for 30 minutes.

    Almost every aspect of this offering was a mess. And what’s especially frustrating is that at every turn, individual investors were punished. Facebook simply got greedy and asked for too much money. However, I can’t put too much blame on a company for trying to get money for cheap. However, I can blame the bankers for not serving the best interest of their clients. The entire syndicate misjudged the interest in Facebook.

    We also learned that the underwriters cut their estimates on Facebook in the middle of the roadshow. That’s outrageous! And we still don’t even know why but it apparently led to some major investors jumping ship. It turns out that some institutional investors were told of the downgrade while others were not. Meanwhile, many inexperienced retail investors bought Facebook using market orders. Ugh, that’s a big mistake. These were most likely the orders that were filled as Facebook ran up to $45 shortly after it started trading. Trust me: Never, never, never buy an IPO using a market order. You will get a terrible fill.

    The fun in Facebook didn’t last long, and the stock dipped below $31 on Tuesday. Here’s a stat for you: Every penny in FB is worth $5 million for Mark Zuckerberg. Measuring from the stock’s high point, Zuck lost $7 billion. Between you and me, I think he’ll be okay.

    Now let’s look at some numbers and we can clearly see that Facebook is wildly over-valued. The Street currently thinks FB can earn 65 cents per share next year. That’s almost certainly too low. To be safe, let’s say that Facebook can earn $1 per share in 2013. The estimated five-year earnings growth rate for Facebook is 35.9%.

    If we take my patented “World’s Simplest Stock Valuation Measure,” (PE Ratio = Growth Rate/2 + 8 ) we get a fair value for Facebook of $25.95. This isn’t a precise measure for every stock, but it’s a quick and easy way to get a reasonable estimate. Still, this means that Facebook is over-valued by over 20$. The shares aren’t even close to being a good buy.

    I can’t say that Facebook will suddenly plunge to $26, but the true value will eventually win out. My advice is to stay away from Facebook.

    Look Forward to Medtronic’s 35th Straight Dividend Increase

    On Tuesday, Medtronic ($MDT) reported fiscal Q4 earnings of 99 cents per share. That was one penny more than Wall Street was expecting and a 10% increase over last year. In February, Medtronic told us to expect Q4 earnings to range between 97 cents and $1 per share.

    I was impressed by Medtronic this past year. Two years ago, the company had to lower its full-year forecast a few times. Even though the overall downgrade wasn’t that much, the Street was highly displeased. But last year, Medtronic gave us a full-year forecast of $3.43 to $3.50 per share and they stuck with it all year. In the end, the company earned $3.46 for the year which was right in the range.

    The good news for Medtronic is that demand is returning for their pacemakers and defibrillators. For Q4, Medtronic’s revenues rose by 4% to $4.3 billion. For 2013, Medtronic sees earnings ranging between $3.62 and $3.70 per share. The Street was expecting $3.66 per share. Officially, that will be reported as “inline guidance” but I’m very pleased with it.

    Sometime next month, I expect Medtronic will raise its quarterly dividend. The current payout is 24.25 cents per share which works out to a yearly dividend of 97 cents per share (or 2.62%). If I had to guess, I think it will be a modest increase—to 25 or 26 cents per share. This will mark their 35th-straight dividend increase. Medtronic is a solid buy anytime the stock is below $40 per share.

    Looking at some of our other Buy List stocks, Ford ($F) had some very good news when Moody’s raised their debt to investment grade. This will help lower their borrowing costs. Few things can cut into a company’s profit margin like escalating borrowing costs. Three years ago, Ford needed to sell 3.4 million units in North America to break even. Today that figure is down to 1.8 million. I think Ford should be a $20 stock.

    In last week’s CWS Market Review, I highlighted some of our higher-yielding stocks. I’m happy to see that Reynolds American ($RAI) responded by reaching its highest closing price in two months. RAI currently yields 5.63%.

    The media paid a lot of attention to a patent trial that Oracle ($ORCL) brought against Google ($GOOG). I never thought this was a big deal. Oracle claimed that Google infringed on some of their patents with the Android software. The jury said no. One expert said the trial was “something like a near disaster for Oracle.” Financially, this is minor. Oracle continues to be a very strong buy here.

    That’s all for now. The stock exchange will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. I hope everyone has an enjoyable three-day weekend. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy

  • Moody’s Raises Ford to Investment Grade
    , May 23rd, 2012 at 10:31 am

    First Fitch raised Ford‘s ($F) debt to investment grade, now Moody’s has followed.

    The upgrade allows Ford to enjoy lower borrowing costs and expands the number of potential buyers for its bonds.

    It also represents a symbolic win for Ford, which nearly collapsed six years ago before mortgaging most of its assets to borrow $23.5 billion to finance a restructuring. Ford continued to use the Blue Oval icon and the other assets. The icon is stamped on the grill of Ford’s cars and trucks.

    (…)

    Moody’s cited Ford’s improved lineup of cars and trucks, limited use of incentives to spur sales, and much lower break-even point in North America for its decision.

    In 2009, Ford could break even in North America if it sold 3.4 million cars and trucks. Now, that level has dropped 45 percent to 1.8 million in sales, according to Moody’s.

    “We concluded that the improvements Ford has made are likely to be lasting,” said Moody’s analyst Bruce Clark.

    Ford wants to cut its automotive debt to $10 billion by the middle of the decade as well as reduce the risk posed by its pension obligations.

    Ford’s automotive debt was $13.7 billion in the first quarter. Last month, Ford said it would offer lump-sum pension buyouts to current white-collar retirees, a move that may lower its U.S. pension obligation by one-third.

  • CWS Market Review – May 18, 2012
    , May 18th, 2012 at 7:20 am

    Wall Street’s spring slide got even uglier this past week. The S&P 500 has now dropped for five days in a row and for ten of the last 12. On Thursday, the index closed at its lowest level since January. Measuring from the recent peak on May 1st, the S&P 500 is down 7.18%. Bespoke Investment notes that in the last two months, more than $4 trillion has been erased from global markets.

    I know it’s scary, but let me assure you—there’s no need to panic. In this week’s CWS Market Review, I want to focus on the two events that have rattled Wall Street’s nerves: the massive trading losses at JPMorgan and the growing possibility that Greece will exit the euro. The really interesting angle is that these two events are partially connected. I’ll have more on that in a bit.

    I’ll also talk about how we can protect our portfolios during times of trouble: by focusing on high-quality stocks with generous dividends. Right now, six of our Buy List stocks yield more than 3.4% which is double the going rate for a 10-year Treasury bond. Reynolds American ($RAI), for example, yields a hefty 5.8%. There aren’t many top-notch stocks that can say that. But first, let’s talk about the god-awful mess at JPMorgan.

    How JPMorgan Chase Lost $2 Billion Without Trying

    Last week, JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) stunned Wall Street by announcing an unexpected trading loss of $2 billion. This was especially disappointing because JPM had been one of the best-run banks around. Despite the massive loss, JPM is still on a solid financial footing. Mostly, this is a huge embarrassment for the firm and their loudmouth outspoken CEO Jamie Dimon.

    I honestly don’t know how much longer Dimon can last at JPM. He shouldn’t be on the New York Fed Board, either. In my opinion, bank CEOs shouldn’t draw attention to themselves. Ideally, they should be very dull and very competent. Dimon is half that equation and I fear he’s become a liability for shareholders.

    So what the heck happened? I’ll try to explain this in an easy-to-understand way. First, we have to talk about “hedging.” When an investor wants to hedge a bet, this means they want to take positions that offset each other in order to get rid of some aspect of risk.

    Let’s say you’re a bookie. You don’t care who wins the game; you only want to make sure that you’ve taken in the same amount of money from both sides. Now let’s say that your “clients” have bet $1,000 on the Lions and $900 on the Bears. Oops, you’re caught with some risk. No worries, you can place a $100 bet on the Bears with another bookie and presto, you’re back to even (minus some vig costs of course).

    Now back to JPM. Last year the bank wanted to hedge their overall credit risk. The problem is that this isn’t so easy when you’re the size of JPM, so they shorted credit indexes. Or more specifically, they mimicked doing that by buying credit protection on baskets of credit. Now for the other side of the trade, JPM sold protection on an index of credit default swaps called CDX.NA.IG.9. I know that sounds like a George Lucas film, but trust me, it really exists.

    With me so far? The problem with this hedge is that JPM had to sell a lot more protection on the CDS index than they bought on the credit baskets. For a while this worked fine. But late last year, the European Central Bank flooded the credit markets with tons of liquidity. The two sides of the hedge started to move together, not separately. In effect, the Lions and Bears were both winning and JPM had bet against both. Once again, the financial modelers had accurately predicted the past, but they weren’t so hot at predicting the future.

    The bank dug the hole deeper for itself by ratcheting up on the CDS index side of the hedge. Soon hedge funds started to notice the prices getting seriously out of whack. What really struck them was that whoever was on the other side of this trade seemed to have limitless funds. This dude never gave in. They jokingly called him “the London Whale,” and it didn’t take long for people to suspect he was at JPM. Eventually the news broke that it was a French trader in JPM’s London office named Bruno Iksil.

    Now the story gets a little murky. Last week, Jamie Dimon announced the trading losses on a special conference call. To Dimon’s credit, he said it was a massive mistake by the bank. On the call, Dimon said that the bank could incur another $1 billion in losses over the next few quarters as the trade is gradually unwound. It seems that the hedge funds smelled blood, figured out the specifics of the hedge and attacked. Hard. So instead of taking another $1 billion in losses over a few quarters, that got squeezed down to four days. There could be more losses to come.

    What to Do With JPMorgan?

    Shares of JPMorgan are down from over $45 in early April to just $33.93 based on Thursday’s close. As frustrating as the past week has been, I’m sticking with the bank. I’m furious with JPM’s management and their careless risk management. But with investing, we need to shut off our emotions and stick with the facts.

    Let’s run through some numbers: Last year, JPM made $4.48 per share. For the first quarter, they made $1.31 per share which was 13 cents better than estimates. Those are impressive results. If the bank loses a total of $3 billion in this fiasco, that will come to about 80 cents per share. In other words, this is a punch in the face but it’s not a dagger to the heart.

    At $34, JPM is clearly a bargain. When it will recover is still a mystery, but time is on the side of patient investors. Due to the recent events, I’m going to lower my buy price on JPM from $50 to $38. At the current price, the stock yields 3.54%. Make no mistake: This is a cautious buy, but the price is very good.

    Euro So Beautiful

    The other issue that’s got Wall Street worried is Greece. The politicians there haven’t been able to form a governing coalition, so they’re going to have elections again next month. The only issue that unites voters is anger at the bailouts. My guess is that some left-wing anti-austerity coalition will eventually prevail.

    On Thursday, Fitch downgraded Greece’s debt to junk. Actually, it was already junk, but now it’s even junkier junk. For a long time, I didn’t think it was possible for Greece to leave the euro. Now it seems like a real possibility, but it will be a costly one. Greek savers have already been pulling their money out of banks because they want to hold on to euros. Their fear is that if Greece changes over to drachmas, the new currency will be worth a lot less and I can hardly blame them.

    The standard line in Europe is that no one wants Greece to leave the euro, but also no one seems willing to do what’s needed to keep them in. The Greek economy isn’t strong enough to pay back their debt because the debt is so heavy that it’s weighing down the economy (Mr. Circle meet Mr. Vicious). There’s simply not much time left. Greece’s deputy prime minister said the country will run out of money in a few weeks. If Greece ditches the euro, Ireland and Spain might be right behind. In fact, foreigners are even pulling their money out of Italian banks. This is getting worse by the day.

    How exactly would Greece leave the euro? Eh…that’s a good question and I really don’t know. But if Greece were to leave the euro, a lot of eurozone banks would take a major hit. I don’t think the damage would necessarily be as bad as feared, assuming the banks were recapitalized. If enough people want this done, it can be done.

    The standard line is that this is what Argentina did several years ago. The difference is that the global economy was much stronger then. I think the best path for countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy is to go full Iceland: to depreciate their currencies. It’s painful in the short-run, but it’s a much sounder strategy. Interestingly, Iceland has actually been doing rather well lately.

    So with Europe already in recession and China slowing down, what’s the impact for investors? One impact is that the euro has been plunging against the dollar. The currency is down five cents this month to $1.27. I think it will head even lower.

    Another impact is that U.S. Treasuries are surging as investors head for cover. On Thursday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 1.69% which is at least a 59-year low. The Fed’s data only goes back to 1953. The intra-day low from last September was slightly lower. The bond rally has lured money away from stocks, but that may soon end.

    A further impact is that the stock sell-off has been felt most heavily among cyclical stocks. Over the last two months, the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (^CYC) is down nearly 15%. The Morgan Stanley Consumer Index (^CMR), however, is down less than 3% over the same time span. That’s a big spread. You can see the impact of this trend by looking at Buy List stocks such as Ford ($F) and Moog ($MOG-A).

    Protect Yourself by Focusing on Yield

    The market’s recent drop has given us several good bargains on our Buy List. AFLAC ($AFL), for example, is now below $40. It was only three weeks ago that the company beat earnings by nine cents per share. Here’s a shocking stat: The tech sector has dropped for 12 days in a row. Oracle ($ORCL) is now going for less than 10 times next year’s earnings. That would have been unthinkable during the Tech Bubble.

    This week, I want to highlight some of our higher-yielding stocks on the Buy List. I always urge investors to look out for stocks that pay good dividends. Their shares are more stable, and they hold up much better whenever the market gets jittery.

    For example, look at CA Technologies ($CA). This was another company with a solid earnings report and the stock now yields 3.90%. Nicholas Financial’s ($NICK) yield is up 3.21%. I think NICK can easily raise its dividend by 30% to 50% this year.

    I already mentioned JPM’s yield, but check out another bank: Hudson City ($HCBK) which yields 5.23%. Last month, Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) raised its dividend for the 50th year in a row. JNJ now yields 3.84%.

    Sysco ($SYY), which also beat earnings, now yields 3.89%. Harris ($HRS) raised its dividend by 18% earlier this year. The shares yield 3.39%. Our highest-yielder is Reynolds American ($RAI). Just two weeks ago, the tobacco stock bumped up its quarterly dividend by three cents per share. RAI currently yields a sturdy 5.80%. These are all excellent buys and they’ll work to protect your portfolio during downdrafts while having enough growth to prosper during a rally.

    That’s all for now. I’m looking for a relief rally next week as traders get ready for Memorial Day. On Monday, Medtronic ($MDT) is due to report earnings. They’ve already told us to expect earnings between 97 cents and $1 per share. I also expect Medtronic to increase its dividend for the 35th year in a row very soon. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

    – Eddy