Posts Tagged ‘XLF’

  • The Return of Financial Dividends
    , June 19th, 2012 at 10:39 am

    Dividends are slowly making a comeback, and they’re even returning to the financial sector. Thanks to the TARP program, many financials firms weren’t allowed to pay dividends, or they cut them down to a trivial amount.

    The Financial Sector ETF ($XLF) just paid out its June dividend of 6.8 cents per share. That’s a 28% increase over the 5.3 cents from one year ago. This is still well below the peak when the XLF regularly paid out more than 20 cents every quarter.

    Profits are returning and so are dividends. If all goes well, I think the XLF could pay out 30 cents per share this year. At $15, that’s a yield of 2% which is lower than many stocks. However, the XLF has the ability to increase its dividends at a rapid clip for the next few years.

  • Dividends Are Making a Comeback
    , April 3rd, 2012 at 11:04 am

    Now that the first quarter is over, we have some stats on dividends. The S&P 500 paid out 7.09 in dividends (that’s the number adjusted for the index) which is a 15.06% increase over the first quarter of 2011.

    I think this will be a very good year for dividends, especially with the dividend news from Apple ($AAPL). The market also responded very well to the five-fold dividend increase from CA Technologies ($CA), plus the recent increase at JPMorgan ($JPM). So far this year, there have been 122 dividend increases in the S&P 500, plus seven new dividend payers. Only three companies have lowered their payouts.

    Looking at dividends has been a surprisingly good way of valuing the market over the past few years. You can never be quite sure about a company’s earnings or cash flow since accounting rules allow for enormous latitude. But if a company is willing to send shareholders a check, you can be pretty certain those numbers are legit (though not always).

    Dividends also tend to be very stable. Once a company raises its quarterly dividend, there’s an implicit understanding that that’s the new level. Shareholders will put up with a lot, but they do not like cuts in dividends, and woe be unto the company that lowers their payout. The recent recession, however, saw an unusually higher number of cut dividends or suspended payouts altogether. In 2009, annual dividends dropped by 21%. Contrast this with 2001 when the stock market crash led to dividends falling by just 3%.

    The lower dividends this time around have been largely concentrated in the financial sector. Part of this is due to rules around receiving TARP payments. I don’t have the exact numbers for the financial sector but the quarterly dividends for the Financial Sector ETF ($XLF) fell about 70%. The Financial Sector currently makes up 15% of the S&P 500.

    The good news is that higher profits are leading to higher dividends. Dividends are on pace to hit a new record this year. On top of that, the dividend payout ratio—the percent of profits paid out as dividends—is still below 30% which is far below normal.

    Here’s a look at the S&P 500 in the black line along with its dividends in the blue line. The black line follows the left scale and the blue line follows the right. The two lines are scaled at a ratio of 50-to-1 which means that the S&P 500 yields exactly 2% whenever the lines cross.

    I think the chart shows some interesting facts. For example, you can see how different the market crashes of 2000-01 and 2008-09 were. In the first, prices soared above fundamentals. In the latter, fundamentals crumbled beneath the price. From 2003 to 2007, stock prices generally followed the trend in dividends. We can also see how much investors panicked during the financial crisis. In March 2009, the S&P 500’s dividend yield eventually reached 4%.

    I asked Howard Silverblatt, the head stat guy at S&P, to tell me the dividend estimate for this year. He said it’s $29.70. To equal a dividend yield of 2%, the S&P 500 needs to get to 1,485 which is a 4.6% jump by the end of the year.

  • A Turnaround for Financials
    , December 8th, 2011 at 10:48 am

    I’ve been pretty down on financials for the past several months, but I think the sector is finally a good buy. Two months ago, I said that the Financial Sector ETF ($XLF) would be a good speculative buy if it fell below $12 per share. Eventually it did. On October 3, the XLF got as low as $10.95. I think it has a reasonable shot of hitting $16 within the next 12 months. In early 2007, the ETF came close to $37.

  • Greece Gets Ready to Default
    , September 12th, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    The stock market is down yet again today. The S&P 500 got as low as 1,141.53 today so it’s still above the August 8th closing low of 1,119.46. One interesting aspect of today’s sell-off is that gold is also down today.

    The financial markets are beginning to adjust to the reality that Greece is going to default. Forbes writes: “Last week five-year Greek credit-default swaps indicated a 92% chance that the country would miss its debt payments.” This is having major spillover effects. The euro has been clobbered against the dollar and many other currencies. Now it looks like French banks are in serious trouble as Moody’s is considering downgrading them.

    The National Association for Business Economics today cuts its forecast for U.S. GDP growth. They see the economy growing by 1.7% this year and 2.3% next year. That’s down from their earlier estimates of 2.8% for this year and 3.2% for 2012.

    The Financial Sector ETF ($XLF) bounced off $12 per share. If it breaks below $12, I think it will be an outstanding buy. I also see that Nicholas Financial ($NICK) dropped below $10 per share which is less than its book value of $10.18.

  • The Financial Spyders ETF
    , August 25th, 2011 at 11:47 am

    The $XLF has crashed and burned recently. But just because it’s down doesn’t mean that it’s cheap. It’s just cheaper than it was. Expect another test of $12 soon.