CWS Market Review – March 15, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 15th, 2022 at 7:44 pm

An Historically Bad Start to the Year

Yesterday was the 48th trading day of this year. So far, this year ranks as the fourth-worst start to the year on record for the S&P 500 through 48 trading days. Some of that can be blamed on the calendar since the market peaked on the first trading of the year.

Late yesterday, we came close to making a new closing low for the year, but a late-day rally helped us miss that by a whisker. The current low came one week ago, on March 8, when the S&P 500 closed at 4,170.70. I think there’s a good chance we’ll break below that soon.

What leads me to say that? The key to watch is the 50-day moving average (the blue line). This is simply the average of the S&P 500 over the last 50 days. It’s a quick and easy way of measuring the market’s momentum. Whenever the index is below its 50-DMA, as it is now, that usually means it’s a difficult market.

The stock market tends to be trend-sensitive. By that, I mean that good markets usually lead to good markets, and bad markets often to lead to more bad markets. I know that sounds obviously true, but there’s a lot of fancy math behind it. The turning points are important. This is why the 50-DMA has a decent track record. I like to call it, “the dumb rule that works well for very smart reasons.”

Another important aspect of the stock market being below its 50-DMA is that volatility tends to be much higher. For example, In the last 23 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has only had one daily gain of less than 1%. There have been lots of big up days and lots of big down days, but not many mildly good days.

Historically, most of the best and worst daily moves have come when the S&P 500 is under its 50-DMA. One of the oddities of the stock market is that so many great days have come during awful markets. Most people have it backward: it’s not that volatility causes bear markets; it’s just that bear markets are more volatile.

Volatility is not like some gremlin that sits above the market and then swoops in to cause mayhem. Instead, it’s part of the market. When prices go down, markets get jittery.

Speaking of which, today is the 89th anniversary of the Dow’s best day ever. The markets had reopened after FDR announced a four-day bank holiday. Back then, the new president was sworn in on March 4. The time off worked. The Dow soared an astounding 8.26 points. That’s peanuts today, but in 1933 it was a gain of 15.34%. In today’s terms that would be a gain of roughly 5,000 points. That record stands today.

Tomorrow is the second anniversary of the Dow’s second-biggest loss ever. The index fell 12.93% for a loss of 3,000 points. Only the 1987 crash was worse. The market plunge two years ago even eclipsed the worst one-day losses in 1929. People were definitely scared two years ago but it was a great time to invest. The Dow is up 60% since then.

A few days later, on March 18, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman went on CNBC and implored President Trump to shut down the economy. Ackman said, “America will end as we know it” unless we “completely close down the economy. Shut it down for 30 days. Hell is coming.”

Scary stuff, but Ackman was completely wrong. The market reached its low a few days later.

Obviously, the events in Ukraine are on our minds. We’re also witnessing the effects in financial markets. Last week, the price for oil shot up to $130 per barrel. Not surprisingly, some oil producers want to ramp up production. Thanks to that, or to the promise of more oil, the price has backed down. Oil is currently around $95 per barrel.

According to the latest data, prices at the pump have topped off for now. At least they’re no longer soaring. I’m sure we’ll see the impact in upcoming CPI reports. Inflation is many things, but it’s not transitory. Get used to seeing more of it.

The Fed to Raise Rates

The Federal Reserve started its two-day meeting today. The policy statement is due out tomorrow afternoon and Chairman Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference. We can almost certainly expect the Fed to announce its first interest rate increase in more than three years.

It was almost exactly two years ago that the Fed lowered rates to the floor. While the rate increase may get a lot of attention, bear in mind that it will probably be an increase of just 0.25%. The Fed is still a long way from impinging on the economy. Real interest rates, meaning adjusted for inflation, are still well into negative territory.

The Fed has a tough job right now because inflation is attacking us on three different fronts. One, naturally, is the commodity surge from the invasion of Ukraine. There’s also the supply-chain crisis. Lastly, there’s the fact that the government has thrown tons of money at the economy. The Fed isn’t responsible for all of them. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inflation soon hit 10% on a trailing 12-month basis.

The sanctions taken against Russia are starting to have a major impact. The ruble has fallen off a cliff and the country is nearing a default. The country hasn’t had a foreign currency default since 1917. Tomorrow, the government needs to pay $117 million to bond holders. The country is supposed to pay in dollars, but at this hour, it’s not clear what the Russians will pay in. Maybe yuan. Maybe euros. Who knows?

Between the Russian government and its major oil corporations, the country has $150 billion in foreign currency debt. In 1998, Russia defaulted on some ruble-denominated debt.

There’s an old saying that if you owe the bank $100, then you have a problem. If you owe the bank $1 million, then the bank has a problem. While many Russia-based firms may soon be unable to pay their bills, we’ll soon learn who in the West isn’t getting paid.

Risk Is Returning

One of the keys to understanding the current market is how the Fed behaved once Covid struck. The Fed responded to Covid in the way it should have responded to the financial crisis. If you recall, in the financial crisis, the Fed dithered for some time before it realized the extent of the problem. Ben Bernanke thought it was an issue that was contained to sub-prime mortgages. Well, it wasn’t.

Once the reality of Covid became clear, however, the Fed threw everything it had to keep the economy afloat. The important aspect for investors is that the Fed radically reduced market risk for investors. That led to an enormous boom in more speculative stocks. What do Price/Earnings Ratios matter when interest rates are on the floor?

Check out this chart which compares the S&P 500 High Beta Index (black) with the S&P 500 Low Vol Index (blue). This covers from the market low of two years ago until this past November.

Low vol stocks did well, but high beta stocks tripled! It’s important to understand that the Fed’s policies caused this to happen. In a normal market, investors would be alarmed by a highly volatile stock’s market risk. But for 20 months, that didn’t exist. As a result, high beta soared.

Now, it’s payback time. Rates are going higher and the market’s focus is changing. Since November, low volatility stocks have been back in favor. This trend will probably last for several months. Now let’s take a closer look at one of my favorite low vol stocks.

Stock Focus: Silgan Holdings

This week, I wanted to highlight Silgan Holdings (SLGN), which is one of our favorite conservative stocks from our Buy List. Silgan is one of the leading makers of metal containers in the world. Boring, sure, but it’s also a very good business. By my count, Silgan has increased its earnings in 16 of the last 18 years.

In January, Silgan said that it had Q4 earnings of 79 cents per share. Wall Street had been expecting 73 cents per share. For its part, the company said that Q4 earnings would be between 69 to 79 cents per share.

For 2021, Silgan made $3.40 per share. That’s up 11% from 2020. Sales were up 17.3%. Silgan had record free cash flow of $466.1 million. Best of all, the company expects another good year for 2022.

The CEO said, “we estimate adjusted earnings per share in 2022 in the range of $3.80 to $4.00, which represents a 15 percent increase at the midpoint over record 2021 levels. Our free cash flow estimate for 2022 is estimated at approximately $350 million.”

Silgan closed today at $44.53 per share. This means that Silgan is going for less than 12 times this year’s earnings. For Q1, Silgan expects earnings to range between 80 and 90 cents per share. The next earnings report should be due out next month.

If you want to learn more about Silgan and the other stocks on our Buy List, please sign up for our premium service.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 15, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 15th, 2022 at 7:07 am

China’s Covid Lockdowns Set to Further Disrupt Global Supply Chains

Relentless Selling in China Stocks Evokes Memories of 2008 Crash

Russia Is Spiraling Toward a $150 Billion Default Nightmare

Goldman CEO Says It’s Not Wall Street’s Job To ‘Ostracize Russia’ Over Ukraine War

Gas Taxes Get Rolled Back Across U.S. as Pump Prices Soar

Uber and Lyft Add Fuel Surcharges to Rides as Gas Prices Surge Nationwide

Why Your Electric Bill Is Soaring—and Likely to Go Higher

From Beer to Semiconductors, War Will Hit U.S. State Economies

Powell Admires Paul Volcker. He May Have to Act Like Him.

Manchin Won’t Support Raskin for The Fed, Imperiling Her Nomination

Investors See Risks Spiking, Fear Market-Wide Liquidity Crunch

Discord Interviews Banks for Possible Direct Listing

‘No Code’ Brings the Power of A.I. to the Masses

Oatly’s Growing Pains Trip Up Pioneer of Oat Milk

After Walt Disney, Robert Iger Heads to the Metaverse

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Oil Drops Below $100 per Barrel
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 14th, 2022 at 11:51 am

The stock market is higher around midday but there are pockets of weakness. While the S&P 500 is up by 0.46%. The Nasdaq Composite is down by 0.46%. Financial stocks are up the most while the energy sector is the laggard.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting tomorrow. The policy statement will be out on Wednesday afternoon. I think it’s obvious that the central bank will raise rates by 0.25%.

Perhaps the most surprising market action is the drop in the price for oil. Despite all the global troubles, there will be supplies willing to fill the void. Oil dropped below $100 per barrel earlier today. There’s talk of peace talks but the market seems skeptical.

There’s also growing concern about the Covid spike in China. The city of Shenzhen told all its businesses to suspend production or have employees work from home. That could further impact supply chain issues.

Morning News: March 14, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 14th, 2022 at 7:04 am

Surge of Omicron Infections Prompts Lockdowns in China

Panic Selling Grips Chinese Stocks in Biggest Plunge Since 2008

Foxconn, Which Assembles Apple’s iPhones, Suspends Production at Factories in Shenzhen, China, Because of Lockdown

China Canceled H&M. Every Other Brand Needs to Understand Why

Russia Warns It May Be Forced to Pay Foreign Currency Debt in Roubles Due to Sanctions

Silicon Valley Tries to Disentangle Itself From Russian Money

Russian Prosecutors Warn Western Companies of Arrests, Asset Seizures

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 2.08% — Its Highest Point Since July 2019

Investors Dash to Haven Assets During Market Turmoil

Hedges Give Companies Temporary Relief From Surging Energy Prices

Inside the 18 Minutes of Trading Chaos That Broke the Nickel Market

How Wall Street Star Cathie Wood Is Defying Her Doubters

Tech Investors Shouldn’t Fall for the Plot Twist

The Key to a $4 Billion Fraud Case: A Banker Who Says He ‘Lied a Lot’

UPS Failed to Make Ferry Reservations to Nantucket for the Summer. Now Islanders Foresee ‘A World of Hurt’

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Morning News: March 11, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 11th, 2022 at 9:31 am

Crypto’s War Test Leaves Future of Money Debate Wide Open

China Has Tools to Help Russia’s Economy. None Are Big Enough to Save It.

Wall Street Joins the Unbanking of Russia

Deutsche Bank Bucks Trend As It Maintains Ties To Russia

Russia Owes Western Banks $120 Billion. They Won’t Get It Back

Gazprombank: The Big Russian Lender That Dodged Western Sanctions

Goldman Sees U.S. Recession Risk as High as 35%, Cuts Forecast

The New Financial Supermarkets

Biden Wants U.S. Oil to Drill More. Here’s Why They’re Holding Back

Ukraine Halts Half of World’s Neon Output for Chips

Mercedes Flags Billions at Risk as Russia Weighs Expropriation

A Secret Ad Deal Between Google and Meta Is Under Scrutiny in Europe

Amazon’s Washington Strategy Wins Few New Friends in the Biden Era

Apps and Oranges: Behind Apple’s ‘Bullying’ on Trademarks

Rivian Makes an Unexpected Gift to Tesla, Ford and GM

A Peloton Bike and Subscription for One Monthly Fee? Company to Test New Price Plans

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Morning News: March 10, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 10th, 2022 at 7:01 am

Europe’s Plan to Quit Russian Fuel Starts a Global Fight for Gas

An Oil Shock Is Coming, But the U.S. May Have Already Paid for It

Biden and the Oil Industry Are at Odds, Clouding Effort to Tame Gasoline Prices

U.S.’s Raimondo Warns Chinese Firms on Evading Russia Sanctions

Russia Devises Plan to Seize Firms Abandoned in Foreigner Exodus

No Ikea Shelves, No Levis: The Retail Exodus from Russia Is On

How Western Firms Quietly Enabled Russian Oligarchs

Rich Exiles Put Dubai in Spotlight as World Chases Russian Money

Russia, Belarus Squarely In ‘Default Territory’ On Billions in Debt -World Bank

What Can Consumers and Businesses Do With 5G? Take a Look at South Korea

Aeroflot’s Decades-Long Turnaround Faces Undoing

SEC Files Plan to Pay $40 Million To Tesla Shareholders in Wake of Elon Musk Tweets

Amazon Is Splitting Its Stock. Why It Wants a Lower Share Price.

When Amazon Nearly Flamed Out, Jeff Bezos Conceived Kindle and Prime

Starting Salaries for Some Grads Hit $100,000, and Their Co-Workers Are Annoyed

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Miller Industries Earns 24 Cents per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 9th, 2022 at 4:12 pm

Miller Industries (MLR) reported Q4 earnings of 24 cents per share and sales rose 13.1% to $207.7 million. For the year, Miller earned $1.42 per share and sales rose 10.2% to $717.5 million. Miller also announced a regular dividend payment of 18 cents per share.

Gross profit for Q4 was $15.6 million, or 7.7% of net sales. That’s down from $24.3 million, or 13.6% of net sales, for Q4 2020. Selling, general and administrative expenses were $11.2 million, or 5.5% of net sales, compared to $9.4 million, or 5.3% of net sales, in the prior year period.

William G. Miller, II, Chief Executive Officer of the Company said, “We continued to experience supply chain challenges and inflation pressures during the fourth quarter. While it remains difficult to secure certain parts for our products that would allow us to complete finished goods, we are pleased with the steps we have taken to improve the underlying business. We expect that our inventory build-up and strong backlog levels will allow us to capitalize on the demand in our end-markets as supply chain challenges ease. While we are unsure of the timing of a resolution to the supply chain constraints, we believe we have taken the necessary operational actions and pricing initiatives to offset inflationary pressures as we remain committed to providing excellent service to our customers, distributors, and stakeholders.”

Mr. Miller, II continued, “Demand remains at all-time highs. Given the favorable macro dynamics and strong backlog levels, we remain confident about our long-term business prospects. We also saw continued improvement in our international operations as European pandemic restrictions eased. The extended nature of supply chain and inflationary challenges has proved difficult for not only Miller, but for nearly every manufacturing company around the globe. That said, we remain focused on our strategy of delivering our backlog and improving our operational efficiency to hit the ground running as these pressures subside. Supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures had eased slightly as we moved into 2022, however the impact of the current military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has added an additional negative impact on our raw material availability and pricing. We will continue to focus on opportunities in front of us to generate long-term shareholder value.”

Morning News: March 9, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 9th, 2022 at 7:07 am

Putin Clings to Russia’s Market Economy as Sanctions Wind Back the Clock

Europe Is on a Wartime Mission to End Its Addiction to Russian Fossil Fuel

Loss of Russian Oil Leaves a Void Not Easily Filled, Straining Market

Russia’s Attack Casts Huge Shadow Over Future of ESG

Pills That Blunt Radiation’s Health Danger Post 100% Price Surge

Food Companies, Long Symbols of the West in Russia, Pause Operations

Russian Car Maker, Known for Cold War Self-Reliance, Idles Factories

Goodbye Londongrad: Russian Oligarchs Put Pressure on U.K. Property Market

Empty Stores and an Exodus: Hong Kong’s Covid Crackdown Stirs Panic

Chinese Nickel Giant Secures Bank Lifelines After Epic Squeeze

Bitcoin Jumps After Apparent Yellen Statement Quells U.S. Clampdown Fears

Biden to Take Step Toward Regulating Cryptocurrencies

Alphabet CFO Explains Reasoning Behind $5.4 Billion Mandiant Acquisition

Walmart To Offer Its Walmart Plus Service To Its Workers For Free

U.S. Probes Options Trade That Gained on Microsoft-Activision Deal

Ex-Goldman Banker Faked His Ex-Wife’s Email to Spin Web of Lies

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CWS Market Review – March 8, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 8th, 2022 at 7:41 pm

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The Markets React to War

The war in Ukraine is about to enter its third week, and the economic ramifications are starting to be felt. Not just in Russia but all over the world. In December, the price for oil was below $70. This week, it cracked $130.

AAA reported that gasoline prices are the highest on record (not adjusted for inflation). On Tuesday, the average price at the pump reached $4.17 per gallon. Last week, it was $3.60. The increases ain’t over.

The war has wreaked havoc in world markets. JPMorgan said that oil could hit $185 per barrel before the end of this year. Here’s a handy stat: Every $10 increase in the price for oil adds 0.2% to the rate of inflation. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that oil could hit $300 per barrel if Europe bans energy imports.

That’s just oil. All sorts of commodities are rallying. For example, Russia is the world’s leading producer of palladium. That’s a metal few people ever think about but it’s very important if you have a catalytic converter. Palladium is more expensive than gold, and it’s been soaring recently.

Wheat shot up to an all-time high and then it plunged. In the futures pits, wheat trading has hit the daily limit for the last six days in a row. Corn has rallied as well. These price increases will fall particularly hard on the world’s developing nations. They could even lead to social and political chaos.

But those rallies are nothing compared with nickel. In two days, nickel gained more than 250%. That’s the largest move ever on the London Metal Exchange. Apparently, a Chinese billionaire shorted nickel and now faces huge losses. It’s an old story. After nickel broke above $100,000 per metric ton, the LME suspended trading and it doesn’t see nickel trading resuming before March 11.

What’s the impact? There could be several. For example, nickel goes into lithium-ion cells that many electric cars use. One analyst said that Monday’s increase alone added $1,000 to the input cost of an average electric vehicle. I can’t help but think of the Butterfly Effect.

Stocks Are at a Nine-Month Low

The reaction from the stock market continues to be one of fear. Stocks have become a lot more volatile. Yesterday, the S&P 500 had its biggest one-day loss since October 2020. Today, the index closed at a nine-month low. Measuring to today’s close, the index is down 13% from its all-time high close which came on the first trading day of this year.

Today was an unusual day of trading. While there were 75 new 52-week lows in the S&P 500, there were also 19 new 52-week highs. The explanation is that many energy stocks did well, while many consumer staples did not.

It’s noteworthy to see what’s happening within the market. I’ve talked about this a lot, but the key trend continues to be low volatility stocks holding firm while high beta stocks are getting pummeled.

This trend has been very beneficial for our Buy List. Since our portfolio is very high-quality, it tends to outperform during scary markets.

So far this year, energy stocks have done very well. The S&P 500 Energy Index is currently up 39% YTD. Banks started off the year well but have lagged badly since the war started. We’re also seeing a lot of weakness in consumer non-discretionaries. In plain English, those are big-ticket items like cars and houses.

Could the bottom be in? I won’t venture a prediction, but I’ll add that as long as the S&P 500 is below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, as it is now, that’s usually a sign of more trouble ahead.

On an historical note, this is a popular time of year for market inflection points. The Nasdaq peaked on March 9, 2000. Three years later, the S&P 500’s closing low came on March 11, 2003. After the financial crisis, the market bottomed on March 9, 2009. The Covid low came on March 23, 2020.

If you’re of a particular historical bent, I’d add that today, March 8th, is also the anniversary of the start of the Russian Revolution, the “February Revolution” (1917), the USSR confirming it had the atomic bomb (1950) and Ronald Reagan giving his Evil Empire speech (1983).

Expect the Fed to Hike Next Week

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February jobs report, and it was good news. Last month, the U.S. economy created 678,000 net new jobs. That easily beat expectations of 440,000. We’ve nearly made back everything we lost (see chart below). The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%. The revisions for the previous two months added 92,000 jobs. The broader U-6 rate was 7.2%.

The surprise is that the average hourly earnings figure was unchanged. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up 5.1%. Private payrolls increased by 654,000. Expectations were for 400,000. Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs. The labor force participation rate was 62.3%. That’s a post-Covid high.

The Federal Reserve meets next week, on Wednesday and Thursday. The war does not seem to have altered the Fed’s policy. It seems virtually certain that the Fed will raise rates next week. The futures market now places the odds of a rate increase at 96%. That seems about 3.999% too low, but that’s just me. It seems increasingly likely that the Fed will hike rates by 0.25% at each of its next four to five meetings, perhaps more.

The key test for the economy is how much more inflation we’ll see. Inflation is a cruel tax, and it takes a heavy toll on lower-income folks. The next CPI report is due out on Thursday. The last report showed year-over-year inflation of 7.5%. That’s the highest in 40 years.

I expect to see similar numbers for this week. Wall Street expects core and headline inflation of 0.6% for February. If that turns out to be accurate, it will slightly increase the year-over-year figure. I had expected to see inflation cool off later this year, but the war has changed my outlook. We may be seeing only the start of high inflation, especially for key commodities.

Simulations Plus Revisit

Last year, I told you about Simulations Plus (SLP). I said I liked the stock but that it was way too expensive. At the time, SLP was going for $57 per share. But I added that I would like it if SLP fell below $40 per share. That seemed a long way away.

Well, that day came. In fact, the shares recently fell below $37 and SLP closed today at $41.43 per share. That has my attention.

So what do they do? Simulations Plus makes software that lets drug companies simulate tests of their products in the virtual world before using any human or animal test subjects.

That’s a big cost-saver for drug companies. Simulations Plus helps streamline the R&D process by making it faster and more efficient. Not only is this cost effective, but it also helps drug companies in dealing with time-consuming regulatory hurdles.

In fact, there are times when the results from SLP’s products have allowed companies to waive clinical studies. The cost savings are substantial. This means drug companies don’t have to deal with the time and expense of recruiting test subjects and analyzing test results.

By using SLP’s software, drug companies can experiment with many variables like fine tuning dosage amounts. Companies can also see potential harmful side effects. Another important factor is that companies can identify treatments that have no benefits.

In healthcare, cost control is a major issue. That’s why SLP’s products are in such heavy demand. A great business to buy is one that helps other companies control their costs.

In many ways, I think what Simulations Plus does for pharmaceutical researchers is closely akin to what Ansys (ANSS) does for engineers. By sitting at a computer, an employee can efficiently iron out a lot of kinks before experimenting in the real world. Simulations Plus is also branching out from their core customer base of drug companies. They work with consumer products companies to see the side effects of things like pesticides.

In January, Simulations Plus reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 15 cents per share. That beat Wall Street’s forecast of nine cents per share. Total revenue rose 16% to $12.4 million. The CEO said, “we remain confident in achieving our 10-15% total revenue guidance for fiscal 2022.”

I’m not adding SLP to our Buy List. I don’t many any changes until December. But I rate the stock a “buy” for aggressive investors. I’ll warn you, SLP moves a lot but they have a winning business.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

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Morning News: March 8, 2022
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 8th, 2022 at 7:02 am

Ukrainians Risk Their Lives to Keep Russian Gas Flowing to Europe

Shell Says It Will Quit Purchasing Oil and Gas from Russia

The Future Turns Dark for Russia’s Oil Industry

Gas Prices Are Now The Most Expensive In U.S. History, Breaking Record From 2008

LME Halts Nickel Trading After Unprecedented 250% Spike

Carmakers Face Soaring Metal Costs With Russian Supplies At Risk

EU Eyes Bonds to Counter Impact as War Grinds On

Putin’s War on Ukraine Shows Xi the Dangers of Attacking Taiwan

Russia, Blocked From the Global Internet, Plunges Into Digital Isolation

Expats Quietly Leave Russia Over Financial and Safety Worries

Morgan Stanley CEO Says Workers Staying Despite Office Push

Wall Street’s Office Return Is Taking Hold. Just Look at the Lattes.

Big Tech Is Spending Billions on AI Research. Investors Should Keep an Eye Out

Can A.I. Help Casinos Cut Down on Problem Gambling?

Axios Wants Us to Read Everything in Bullet Points

Mandiant Spikes 16% On Report Google Is In Talks To Acquire The Company

Lego Revenue Jumped 27% In 2021, As Kids And Adults Continue To Build

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