• British Economy has Worst Quarter in 50 years
    Posted by on June 30th, 2009 at 9:43 am

    Bloomberg reports:

    The U.K. economy shrank more than previously estimated in the first quarter in the biggest contraction since 1958 as the recession choked industries from construction to services.
    Gross domestic product fell 2.4 percent from the final three months of 2008, compared with the prior measurement of a 1.9 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median prediction in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists was for a 2.1 percent decline. Construction activity plunged almost three times as much as originally estimated.
    Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said last week that Britain’s recovery from recession may turn out to be “a long, hard slog.” While business surveys have indicated the economic slump is easing, unemployment may continue to increase and net mortgage lending is the weakest since records began in 1993.
    “In big picture terms, it doesn’t really change the outlook,” said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis Bank Nederland Holding NV in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. “The recovery is unlikely to be very strong any time soon. There’s more bad news for consumers ahead.”

    The lousy economy is apparently affecting everyone: Queen to run out of funds by 2012.

  • BarryTV
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 8:54 pm

    Here’s blogger and Carney-foil, Barry Ritholtz discussing Bailout Nation on C-Span’s BookTV.
    Here’s my review of Bailout Nation.

  • The Best of the Money Blogs
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 4:35 pm

    I’m honored to have been nominated by Howard Lindzon and David Berman as one of the best money blogs at the Globe and Mail.
    You can vote here for Crossing Wall Street. Please vote early and often. You can see the gentleman at the Acorn office for additional assistance.

  • Stocks Chillax
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    The stock market’s volatility continues to subside. The VIX closed at its lowest level in nine months. At one point in October, the VIX came within inches of 90. Now it’s close to dipping below 25.
    image826.png
    Except at very low points (like below 13), a low VIX is neither good nor bad for stocks. It simply means that there will be less volatility.

  • Taleb Watch
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

    I think the world is beginning to catch on to the increasingly tedious Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A few weeks ago, Janet Tavakoli blew the whistle on the claim made in GQ that Taleb “made $20 billion for our clients, half a billion for the Black Swan fund.” Taleb says he was misquoted (Felix comes to his defense).
    On his website, Taleb writes:

    Note that NUMBERS are wrong. This is not a business/finance, but a philosophy article written by a literary person the novelist Will Self. So read the article for ideas. Someone used the errors as a platform for her (failed) smear campaign.

    Lame.
    Saying that it’s a philosophy article not a finance article is not an excuse. If the numbers are wrong, then GQ should put out a correction. If Self stands by the quote, then he should stand by it. I don’t buy the argument that Taleb exists in some higher plane where ideas trump facts.

  • Hey Bernie
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 11:34 am

    See you in 2159!

  • I’m Back!
    Posted by on June 29th, 2009 at 8:31 am

    I’m back in the office after a very relaxing week in Maine. Here’s an interesting investing lesson: I didn’t pay attention at all to the stock market last week and the Buy List still outperformed the market. The S&P 500 dropped 0.3% last week while the 20 stocks on my Buy List gained an average of 2.2%. By doing nothing, I still beat most money managers.
    The Buy List has been locked in place since the start of the year and we’re beating the S&P 500, 15.2% to 1.7% (not including dividends).
    The best news last week came from Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). The earnings report was outstanding. Not only did the company cream Wall Street’s estimate by nine cents a share (34 cents to 25 cents), but earnings were also higher than the same quarter one year ago. So in BBBY’s case, things are actually improving instead of saying that the rate of worsening is slowing.
    Here are the earnings results going back a few years:

    Quarter Sales Gross Profit Operating Profit Net Profit EPS
    May-99 $356,633 $146,214 $28,015 $17,883 $0.06
    Aug-99 $451,715 $185,570 $53,580 $33,247 $0.12
    Nov-99 $480,145 $196,784 $50,607 $31,707 $0.11
    Feb-00 $569,012 $238,233 $77,138 $48,392 $0.17
    May-00 $459,163 $187,293 $36,339 $23,364 $0.08
    Aug-00 $589,381 $241,284 $70,009 $43,578 $0.15
    Nov-00 $602,004 $246,080 $64,592 $40,665 $0.14
    Feb-01 $746,107 $311,802 $101,898 $64,315 $0.22
    May-01 $575,833 $234,959 $45,602 $30,007 $0.10
    Aug-01 $713,636 $291,342 $84,672 $53,954 $0.18
    Nov-01 $759,438 $311,030 $83,749 $52,964 $0.18
    Feb-02 $879,055 $370,235 $132,077 $82,674 $0.28
    May-02 $776,798 $318,362 $72,701 $46,299 $0.15
    Aug-02 $903,044 $370,335 $119,687 $75,459 $0.25
    Nov-02 $936,030 $386,224 $119,228 $75,112 $0.25
    Feb-03 $1,049,292 $443,626 $168,441 $105,309 $0.35
    May-03 $893,868 $367,180 $90,450 $57,508 $0.19
    Aug-03 $1,111,445 $459,145 $155,867 $97,208 $0.32
    Nov-03 $1,174,740 $486,987 $161,459 $100,506 $0.33
    Feb-04 $1,297,928 $563,352 $231,567 $144,248 $0.47
    May-04 $1,100,917 $456,774 $128,707 $82,049 $0.27
    Aug-04 $1,273,960 $530,829 $189,108 $120,008 $0.39
    Nov-04 $1,305,155 $548,152 $190,978 $121,927 $0.40
    Feb-05 $1,467,646 $650,546 $283,621 $180,980 $0.59
    May-05 $1,244,421 $520,781 $150,884 $98,903 $0.33
    Aug-05 $1,431,182 $601,784 $217,877 $141,402 $0.47
    Nov-05 $1,448,680 $615,363 $205,493 $134,620 $0.45
    Feb-06 $1,685,279 $747,820 $304,917 $197,922 $0.67
    May-06 $1,395,963 $590,098 $148,750 $100,431 $0.35
    Aug-06 $1,607,239 $678,249 $219,622 $145,535 $0.51
    Nov-06 $1,619,240 $704,073 $211,134 $142,436 $0.50
    Feb-07 $1,994,987 $862,982 $309,895 $205,842 $0.72
    May-07 $1,553,293 $646,109 $154,391 $104,647 $0.38
    Aug-07 $1,767,716 $732,158 $211,037 $147,008 $0.55
    Nov-07 $1,794,747 $747,866 $203,152 $138,232 $0.52
    Feb-08 $1,933,186 $799,098 $259,442 $172,921 $0.66
    May-08 $1,648,491 $656,000 $118,819 $76,777 $0.30
    Aug-08 $1,853,892 $739,321 $187,421 $119,268 $0.46
    Nov-08 $1,782,683 $692,857 $136,374 $87,700 $0.34
    Feb-09 $1,923,274 $785,058 $231,282 $141,378 $0.55
    May-09 $1,694,340 $666,818 $142,304 $87,172 $0.34

    Here’s a look at the trailing four-quarter earnings-per-share:
    image825.png
    Note the last bump up in the line. It may not look terribly impressive right now but consider how poorly the economy has done, especially in the housing sector. Bed Bath & Beyond is an excellent long-term stock.

  • Greetings from Maine
    Posted by on June 24th, 2009 at 4:07 pm

    I just wanted to pop my head in and say hi from the beautiful state of Maine. Unfortunately, it has rained every singe day. The forecast is for still more rain the rest of the week. (The rain in Maine is driving me insane.)
    Still, I’m having a great time just relaxing and not worrying about stocks bouncing up and down. The lake house is really nice. Also, I won’t say that I’m having a large-scale remote control naval/sea war complete with nerf dart guns. But I won’t say that I’m not having one either.
    Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is due to report today but I haven’t seen anything yet. The last earnings report was great and the stock has pulled back since then. Anything below $30 is a good buy, and below $28 is very good.
    Tomorrow will be the GDP report. We’re now at the stage where the first quarter is a long time ago so the report won’t be too important. I’m curious if there will be an upward revision to a horrible quarter.
    If you’ll excuse me, I have to get back to my battle station (ie, deck chair).
    Elfenbein out.

  • Weekend Poll
    Posted by on June 19th, 2009 at 1:49 pm

  • Vacation
    Posted by on June 19th, 2009 at 11:25 am

    It’s time to head out on vacation. I’m off to a wonderful lakeside cottage in Maine. Best of all, the laptop is staying behind.
    It’s good to take some time off every once in a while so you can recharge your batteries.
    While I’m gone please check out of the folks on my blogroll. I’ll be back in the office on June 28. Have a great week!