Chart of the Day
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 14th, 2008 at 1:54 pm

Sometimes the chart tells the whole story.

Update: Whoa! Bear was just sold for $2.

Where Have We, As a Nation, Gone Wrong?
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 13th, 2008 at 12:48 pm

The economy must truly be bad:

Girl Scouts Say Cookie Sales Down
Girl Scout and Brownie troops say cookie sales are noticeably down this year as their customers struggle to pay for groceries, gasoline and home heating fuel.
Becky Santos, leader of Brownie Troop 74 in Barrington, said her group sold 300 boxes outside a Wal-Mart recently, down from 500 in the same location last year. Sue Cusack, the troop’s co-leader, said she and her daughter also made fewer door-to-door sales, with some repeat customers buying one box instead of two.
Jan Arsenault of Barrington said she scaled back her purchase because of the economy but couldn’t resist two boxes.

Not Samoas. Please lord, NOT THE SAMOAS!!

UnitedHealth Cautions
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 13th, 2008 at 9:53 am

UnitedHealth‘s (UNH) stock got creamed this week after WellCare (WCG) and Humana (HUM) lowered their guidance. Naturally, people have been expecting an earnings warning from UNH bot the company has so far stuck to its 2008 forecast of $3.95 to $4 a share.
Finally today, UNH didn’t warn, but it did caution:

UnitedHealth Group management is continuing to actively monitor a variety of trends affecting the sector. Factors the Company is assessing include:
* Membership trends in risk-based commercial markets and Medicare Advantage product offerings, including Special Needs Plans which serve higher acuity seniors;
* Benefit buy-downs and continued local pricing dynamics in commercial markets;
* U.S. Government data showing influenza and influenza-like illness running at high levels across all populations through the first two months of 2008;
* Medicare Part D plan performance; and,
* The impact of the Federal Reserve decision to reduce interest rates in the first quarter of 2008.
Based on data from the first two months of 2008, the Company’s estimates of medical costs incurred in 2007 appear to have been accurate. Through the first two months of 2008, the commercial medical cost trend has performed consistent with the Company’s expectations, with the exception of a higher than expected impact from influenza. The Company also noted that the net unrealized capital gain position in its investment portfolio has continued to strengthen in 2008. The Company’s Enhanced Medicare Part D program performance is consistent with the Company’s plan for the approximately 100,000 participants in these offerings at UnitedHealth Group.
As evidenced by recent market commentary, there may be pressure on first quarter and full year 2008 results. However, given that it is still early in the year, management believes it is premature to draw adverse conclusions.

Gold futures hit $1,000
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 13th, 2008 at 9:37 am

Finally.
Gold futures hit $1,000 an ounce for the first time Thursday morning as the dollar continues to decline and crude oil prices rise.

Gold futures hit the benchmark after the dollar fell below 100 yen during Asian trading Thursday, its weakest against the Japanese currency in 12 years. The dollar also sank to all-time lows against the euro.
Gold has been pushing up against the $1,000 an ounce mark for weeks mainly due to the weaker dollar. Interest rate cuts – and the prospect of more on the way – have weakened the dollar so much that foreign investors can buy dollar-based commodities like gold more cheaply.

The Oil Bubble
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 5:21 pm

Ronald Bailey says that oil may be ready for a big fall:

Although U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen, gasoline inventories are at their highest since March, 1993, notes Tim Evans, an energy futures analyst at Citigroup’s Futures Perspective. World oil production was up 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over the same period in 2007 while world oil consumption rose by just 2 percent. In fact, world production is projected to be 3.3 percent higher in the second quarter and 4.1 percent higher in the third quarter than the same periods a year ago. On the other hand, world demand is projected to rise by just 1.6 percent over the next six months.
In fact, demand is falling in some countries. According to economist John Kemp at the commodities firm Sempra Metals, the U.S. consumed 4 percent less petroleum in January 2008 than it did the year before. Evans agrees, noting that the U.S. demand for petroleum products began falling off last July. Interestingly, this drop in U.S. oil consumption began before crude prices turned vertical and before we began to see weakness in the broader economy. Even China’s thirst for oil is abating somewhat. Its demand for oil, which once rose at 10 percent per year, has now dropped to 6 percent per year. In addition, world surplus oil production capacity has gone from a very tight 1.5 million barrels per day a couple of years ago to more than 3 million barrels today, says petroleum economist Michael Lynch.

StockTickr Interview
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 5:07 pm

Here’s an interview I did with Dave Mabe over at StockTickr.

Client #6 Was Allegedly the Duke of Westminster
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 3:31 pm

You just knew that a peer had to be involved.

The escort agency at the heart of the scandal surrounding New York was allegedly also used by the Duke of Westminster.
The peer was last year exposed as an alleged client of the Emperor Club VIP’s prostitutes.
Zana Brazdek, then 26, told The News of the World that the duke, Gerald Cavendish Grosvenor, paid her £2,000 for two hours.

Another SocGen Employee Held by Police
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 9:13 am

From Bloomberg:

Societe Generale SA, the French bank stung by a record trading loss of 4.9 billion euros ($7.6 billion), said another employee has been taken into police custody as part of the investigation into unauthorized trades.
Police also searched the La Defense headquarters, just outside Paris, of France’s second-biggest bank this morning, Societe Generale spokeswoman Laura Schalk said in an interview.
Paris prosecutors’ spokeswoman Isabelle Montagne confirmed that a broker from a subsidiary of Societe Generale is now being questioned by police. The employee may be held for up to 24 hours, Montagne said. She declined to name the broker or the subsidiary.

“FBN is just plain dumb”
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 7:58 am

Liza Featherstone looks at Fox Business News:

At times, FBN is just plain dumb. Some of the Murdoch Playmates are genuine bimbos, while others play their dopey roles convincingly, and the choice of material they’re given isn’t pretty. One morning, Alexis Glick, the lusciously made-up anchor—also a Columbia graduate who has worked as an equity analyst for Goldman Sachs and directed New York Stock Exchange floor operations at Morgan Stanley, though you’d never guess it from her breathless on-air persona—dizzily conducts an inspiring interview with a woman who has broken the glass ceiling in the all-important industry of competitive beach volleyball. A few other critical, breaking stories on FBN, as the American economy careened into chaos and uncertainty, included a check-cashing fraud involving a corpse, and “the Meanest Mom on the Planet” (she sold her teenage son’s car after finding booze under the seat!). There’s no doubt that CNBC is more journalistically serious than Fox. Almost any random dial-flipping will provide the contrast, but here’s just one: While CNBC featured New York Times columnist David Leonhardt explaining substantive economic policy differences among the Republican candidates, Fox was reporting that despite her scandalous pregnancy, people are still watching Jamie Lynn Spears’s TV show.

According to Neilson, just 6,300 people watch FBN.

Jim Rogers: Abolish the Fed
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 12th, 2008 at 7:48 am

Jim Rogers isn’t shy about his opinions:

Listen, investment banks have been going bankrupt since the beginning of time. If people make mistakes — if you bail out every investment bank that gets in trouble, that’s not capitalism, that’s socialism for the rich.