• After Hours: Some Chick
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 7:48 pm

    I have no idea who this young woman is, but she has a beautiful voice. Enjoy.

    “You Are My Sunshine” was written by a country singer named Jimmie Davis. It was such a big hit that it propelled him into the Louisiana governor’s mansion.
    The song is often considered a children’s song which I don’t think it is. The young woman above does an excellent job capturing its melancholy.
    Davis died in 2000 at the age of 101.

  • Trade of the Year
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    Here’s an observation on political markets. This is a clip of Larry Kudlow, Robert Reich and Steve Moore discussing what a great job John McCain did at the CNBC/MSNBC/WSJ debate in October.

    After hearing that, you could have run out and bought a McCain-to-win contract for just 5.2 cents. Today, you’d be sitting on a profit of…oh, about 1,700%.
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    See, it pays to listen to Larry. And that’s just at 97 cents; your McCain contract still has a very good chance of hitting $1 by Labor Day.
    But there’s something else. That day, October 9, was the exact high of the stock market (if you watch the clip again, you can see the “record high” alerts). This was also the debate where McCain said, “I’m glad whenever they cut interest rates, I wish interest rates were zero.”
    There is a serious economic argument in favor of 0% interest rates. This is known as the “Friedman Rule.” To be fair to the late professor, I don’t think that’s what McCain was thinking about.
    Was that debate the turning point of McCain’s campaign (going up) and the stock market (going down), and are they related?
    Personally, I think it’s just a coincidence. B-Riz has more.

  • Blankfein Earns $100 Million
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 4:14 pm

    Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, made $100 million last year. His salary was just $600,000. The rest comes from stock and bonuses. Here’s the SEC filing.

  • Three-Month T-Bill Hits 1.1%
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 2:10 pm

    Wow! This morning, the yield on three-month T-bills (^IRX) dropped to 1.1%. That’s just stunning. The Fed is miles behind the rest of the market. The T-bill rate has since ticked up to 1.4%.
    The five-year yield dropped below 2.4%. Think about that. There are people who are so scared that they’re willing to lock-in a 2.4% return for the next five years.

  • Futures Say 98% Chance of 0.75% Rate Cut
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 12:17 pm

    From Bloomberg:

    The U.S. dollar has declined against 14 of the world’s 16 most-actively traded currencies this year on bets the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates to avert a recession. Futures show traders see a 98 percent chance the Fed will lower its target rate 0.75 percentage point to 2.25 percent on March 18. The balance of bets is on a half-point cut.

  • Rumors of a Rumor
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 11:44 am

    Barry Ritholtz passes this along. The British are apparently concerned over rumors of rumors.
    I apologize for the misspellings (favourite?) but these English don’t quite have our language down yet.

    Rumour of second bail out rumour coming in Ambac
    Word is that CNBC have heard from a source close to the fire escape that the Monolines are worried that there will be no new rumours about possible rescues around until the recent rescues are proved to have failed.
    That means that there’ll be no Friday evening prop for the stock markets.
    A source close to the industry said that a consortium is “being put in place to work on new rumours but we can’t be sure that these rumours will actually be ready for another five business days.”
    News of the rumoured rumour of salvation sent MBIA and AMBAC up .01% in pre-market trading. Hank Paulson was rumoured to be delighted with the patriotic rumours, a source close to him on his lifeboat off the coast of Hawaii said Thursday. Ben Bernake has placed pencils in his ears and is wearing his favourite underpants on his head.
    -David McCreadie and Dan Davies

    Pity they lost the empire.

  • Société Générale Changes the Calendar
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 11:37 am

    If you’re old enough, you may remember seeing pictures of how the Kremlin doctored Russia history to keep up with the latest power struggles within the Politburo. Some comrade who could be seen storming the Winter Palace one year was magically photo-shopped out the next.
    Well, now Société Générale is keeping that practice alive in the 21st century. The company had its huge loss this year, but the firm is magically transferring it to 2007.

    It is not often that a major international bank admits it is violating well-established accounting rules, but that is what Société Générale has done in accounting for the fraud that caused the bank to lose 6.4 billion euros — now worth about $9.7 billion — in January.
    In its financial statements for 2007, the French bank takes the loss in that year, offsetting it against 1.5 billion euros in profit that it says was earned by a trader, Jérôme Kerviel, who concealed from management the fact he was making huge bets in financial futures markets.
    In moving the loss from 2008 — when it actually occurred — to 2007, Société Générale has created a furor in accounting circles and raised questions about whether international accounting standards can be consistently applied in the many countries around the world that are converting to the standards.

  • Hedge Fund Lost 22% Last Month
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 11:31 am

    Think you had a rough February? I bet it wasn’t as bad as the folks at Saracen Energy Partners LP. Thanks to rotten bets on natural gas, the fund lost 22% last month.
    There’s simply no excuse to have that much exposure. One of the most important rules of investing is diversification. And no, diversification does not mean buying Google AND Apple. You need to be well-diversified across industry groups as well. Check out the Buy List for a good example.

  • Another Rotten Jobs Report
    Posted by on March 7th, 2008 at 10:56 am

    The employment outlook is getting worse. The government reported today that the unemployment rate dropped from 4.9% to 4.8% last month, but the numbers behind the numbers show that it wasn’t a good month for payrolls. The report on non-farm payrolls showed a loss of 63,000 jobs. Over the last four months, the economy has created just 16,000 new jobs. The economy needs to create 200,000 new jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.
    The number of jobs as a percent of the civil labor has been declining since the end of 2006. If we had merely kept that pace, then the economy would have over 1.6 million more jobs right now.

  • The Market Makes a New Low
    Posted by on March 6th, 2008 at 4:21 pm

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