Precision-Guided Cancer Weapons
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 5th, 2007 at 10:42 pm

Business Week looks at some wicked cool technology from our very own Varian Medical Systems (VAR) that’s helping to fight cancer:

In early 2005, Phil Ogden noticed he was having trouble swallowing food and went to a doctor, thinking he might have acid reflux. The news was far worse. The 66-year-old retired cop from Modesto, Calif., had esophageal cancer, and it had already spread to nearby lymph nodes. Dr. Albert Koong, a radiation oncologist with Stanford University’s Comprehensive Cancer Center, asked if Ogden would mind being the first person to undergo a new type of radiation treatment. “The doctor said: ‘For the first time in history, we can bomb the equivalent of an outhouse from 30,000 feet with no collateral damage,'” Ogden recalls.
Koong was referring to treatment with a $3 million device from Varian Medical Systems Inc. (VAR ) It combines a linear accelerator, which emits high-energy X-ray beams, with advanced imaging gear. The machine enabled the doctor and his team to home in on cancerous cells and deliver precise doses of radiation over a six-week period without harming surrounding tissue. For the patient, that meant fewer side effects of radiation, such as a dry mouth and weight loss. Within days, Ogden was putting on pounds as it became easier to swallow. Ogden has since had to receive chemotherapy to treat small spots of cancer elsewhere in his body, but his esophagus remains cancer free.

Year……….Sales……….Oper Earnings……Taxes……….Net
2002……….$873.1………….$148.0……….$53.3……….$94.7
2003……….$1,041.6……….$200.6……….$70.2……….$130.4
2004……….$1,235.5……….$258………….$90.3……….$167.7
2005……….$1,382.6……….$308.3……….$101.7……..$206.6
2006……….$1,597.8……….$318.7……….$75.1……….$243.6

Forecast Is Cut by UnitedHealth
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 5th, 2007 at 10:38 pm

From Reuters:

The UnitedHealth Group cut its 2007 revenue forecast yesterday after determining that membership in its full-service Medicare plans for older patients would probably decline “modestly” this year.
The company lowered its Medicare Advantage projection for the second time in two months, even as a rival health insurer, Humana, said it picked up 100,000 such Medicare members in January alone.
UnitedHealth’s new Medicare Advantage forecast led analysts to speculate that the company’s performance has suffered as it tries to emerge from a stock options scandal.
The insurer, which is based in Minnetonka, Minn., now expects consolidated revenue to exceed $78 billion this year, down from a forecast last month of approximately $79 billion. It maintained its net earnings forecast for the year at $4.7 billion to $4.75 billion.

This is minor, and the market seems to agree. But it will be interesting to keep an eye on.

Good News for Buffett
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 4th, 2007 at 1:34 pm

From The Onion:

GEICO Saves 15 Percent Or More By Discontinuing Advertising
WASHINGTON, DC—Executives at the car-insurance company GEICO learned Monday that they could slice 15 percent or more from their operating budget by discontinuing their extensive TV advertising campaign. “We couldn’t believe it when we found out how much we could save by axing that ad campaign,” said Tony Nicely, GEICO’s chairman, president, and CEO. “Dropping that CGI gecko saved us a quarter of a million dollars—and it only took one phone call to our marketing department.” Nicely added that sometimes a company has to save money to save money.

Don’t Forget Your Telephone Excise Tax Refund
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 4th, 2007 at 7:19 am

In 1898, Congress imposed a “luxury tax” on long-distance phone calls in order to pay for the Spanish-American War. The war lasted 113 days, but the tax lasted 108 years (we won, btw).
The government finally decided to get rid of the tax. Or more precisely, the courts declared it illegal and after fighting it for years, the government, like the Spanish, conceded defeat.
The good news is that taxpayers can now get a refund. A very small refund, but a refund nonetheless
You can either dig up your old phone bill, or go for the automatic plan. That’s $30 for one dependent; $40 for two; $50 for three or $60 for four. Sixty bucks is the limit.
For the 411, check the IRS’ site.
What happened to the Battleship Maine? It was refloated in 1912 and sunk again in deeper water. The main mast is now part of the U.S.S. Maine Memorial in Arlington National Cemetary.
After the war, Cuba leased the U.S. Guantanamo Bay for $2,000 a year in gold (now about $4,000 in cash). Every year, we pay. Every year, Castro refuses.

Weekend Reading
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 3rd, 2007 at 1:15 pm

I hope the boss didn’t ask you come in this weekend. Here are a few articles that I thought were interesting.
Paul Krugman on Milton Friedman.
James Surowiecki on Sarbanes-Oxley.
Jeffrey Toobin on Google Book Search.
John McWhorter on dying languages.
Also, I saw the movie Pan’s Labyrinth last night. It’s a beautiful film. I highly recommend it.

Best Hockey Fight Ever
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 3rd, 2007 at 7:58 am

Last month was the 20th anniversary of the “Punch-up in Piestany,” of one of the greatest moments in hockey, and Canadian, history.
In 1987, Canada was playing the (then) Soviet Union in the World Junior Championships in Piestany, Czechoslovakia. Mid-way through the game, all hell broke loose. I can’t believe YouTube has the video.
Canada had a decent shot to win the gold, while the Soviets were out of medal contention. Canada was winning 4-2 when the frustrated Soviets started ganging up on the Canadian players. The commies got really nasty. Soon the boys from the Great White North had seen enough. They jumped over the boards, and, knowing they would forfeit any medal, fought back (note the 4:20 mark in the video).
The place went frickin berserk. A dust-up turned into an all-out 20-on-20 brawl. And not your typical NHL-style “pushing” fight. These guys were punching for real. Sticks, helmets and gloves were everywhere. Did I mention these were kids? Even the two goalies squared off against each other–the two back-up goalies.
The refs completely lost control. After awhile, they just skated off the ice. But the players kept fighting. They even shut off the lights in the arena. It didn’t work. The players KEPT ON FIGHTING. Both teams were disqualified, and according to the record books, the game doesn’t exist.
The aftermath was a huge deal in Canada. Unfortunately, Canada bases much of its national identity on not being like certain other North American countries. You know, violent neocon cowboys and all that. So began the mandatory national period of self-reflection: “What are we teaching our children? This is not how we do things in Canada.” And so on.
The Canadian kids did exactly what they should have. Here’s a clip from the time of the legendary hockey coach Don Cherry debating a clueless sportswriter. There’s even a book about the game.

A Possible Triple All-Time High
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 2nd, 2007 at 2:40 pm

Yesterday, the Dow Transportation Average (^DJT) closed at 4998.75, just 0.2 points below its all-time high reached last May. In between that time, the index plunged all the way to 4,140 (remember how well EXPD did on last year’s Buy List, before it got weak).
With the Dow Industrials (^DJI) also hitting a new all-time high, and the Dow Utilities (^DJU) just behind, we might be near the first triple all-time high in nine years. The last time all three indexes made new highs was on March 17, 1998. Since 1929, this has happened on only 16 occasions.
For a breif period in 1962, the DJU was slightly greater than the DJT. Today, the Transports are more than 10 times the Utilities.

The Revision to Nonfarm Payrolls
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 2nd, 2007 at 10:02 am

This morning we learned that nonfarm payrolls increased by 111,000 last month. That’s a so-so number, but I’ve learned not to take the Labor Department reports too seriously. Or most anything from any government.
Cynical? Consider this: The Labor Department also gave us their big annual revision to the nonfarm payroll report. It turns out that they had been undercounting employment in the U.S. by, oh, nearly a million. I’ll turn it over to their press release:

The total nonfarm employment level for March 2006 was revised upward
by 752,000 (754,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis). The previously published
level for December 2006 was revised upward by 981,000 (933,000 on a seasonally
adjusted basis).

Oh dear lord. That’s like missing an entire state. Here’s what I said in October about employment on Barry Ritholtz’s Blogger Take.

Darn it! The hand-wringing choir has begun, and I’m already behind. Oh, you know the tune: Corporate America is raking in the moolah while Johnny Cubedweller is getting the shaft. I’m sure you’ve heard this before. Paul Krugman even said that we shouldn’t be happy that the Dow has hit a new high.
Sorry professor, but I am happy. (Note: The Dow is up 800 points since then. – Eddy)
What’s the problem this time? It turns out the Labor Department said that the economy created only 51,000 new jobs last month (Note: Now they say it was really 198,000. – Eddy). Now before you join in on the singing, bear in mind that this number will be revised next month. And again in the month after that. And if that’s not enough, sometime in 2017, the later revision of the earlier revision will be revised all over again. It might even lead someone, maybe a taxpayer, to wonder why we have a Labor Department in the first place.
Did I mention that the Labor Department somehow missed 810,000 new jobs created last year? (Note: That was the initial estimate of the revision, which has since been revised. – Eddy) Perhaps they were counting the Household survey. Or was that the Establishment survey? It gets a little confusing here. You see, not only do our labor surveys get revised umpteen times, but there are a few you can choose from.
This is why I don’t pay any of them too much attention. I’m going to take a wild guess and say that September’s number is going to be revised higher. In fact, all of the revisions will tell us the perfectly obvious: The economy is much stronger than the hand-wringers think.
So when those 810,000 workers are finally retired and living on Jupiter, the Labor Department will get around to its last revision of its last survey, and it will tell us exactly what the Dow said all those years ago.

The Dow is up again today. Here’s a look at NFP Old & New (subject to revision):

Wallstrip Makes the NYT
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 2nd, 2007 at 9:45 am

Wallstrip is profiled in today’s NYT.

It’s ‘Squawk Box’ Meets ‘Saturday Night Live’
A few years ago, a video on the stock performance of Jack in the Box might have involved a sit-down interview with the fast-food restaurant’s chief executive, dryly discussing its fundamentals.
Today, it is just as likely to be a music video with a leggy brunette licking a French fry and a hedge fund manager wearing a massive gold chain necklace, both singing an homage to a recent “Saturday Night Live” sketch.
Welcome to Wallstrip, a three-month-old Web site that mixes stock news and pop culture. Featuring an actress, Lindsay Campbell, as a host, the site offers a short daily video featuring a stock at a 52-week high, as well as financial bloggers who discuss the companies at the heart of each episode.
“We saw a huge space between Jim Cramer and the bottom of the market,” said Howard Lindzon, the manager of a small hedge fund who helped create the show and is now its executive producer.
The popularity of Wallstrip — it claims to have an average of 10,000 views a day — is only the latest sign of the growing use of video on financial Web sites. Sites like CNBC.com and TheStreet.com have increased their video offerings, for example.

Read more…

Total Return of the S&P 500
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 2nd, 2007 at 6:51 am

The S&P 500 closed at a six-year high yesterday. Here’s how the index has done over the past 10 years, adjusted for dividends and inflation: