• This Just In
    Posted by on November 10th, 2006 at 1:42 pm

    Greenspan Not Omniscient

  • Google and Price Targets
    Posted by on November 10th, 2006 at 11:28 am

    At the beginning of the year, Safa Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray put a $600 price target on shares of Google (GOOG). The stock responded by shooting up $21 to $435. Some of us were tempted to laugh. Actually, we gave into our temptation and laughed quite a lot. Two days later Mark Stahlman at Caris & Co. put a $2,000 price target on Google. This nearly killed us.
    As you would expect, the stock immediately plummeted below $340, and stayed below its high for much of the year. But recently, the search engine has caught fire again. In later-October, the stock got all the way up to $492, and now it’s settled in the $470ish range.
    Google is going for about 35 times earnings, and if you follow the PEG ratio stuff (which I don’t), then the shares are just about in line with the projected growth rate of 32.5%. Well, Google could be a good buy at some point, but I’d like to see the shares fall back down again before making a move. I’m guessing the path $2,000 will be harder than the path to $450.

  • Is a Burrito a Sandwich?
    Posted by on November 10th, 2006 at 9:46 am

    woscourt2.jpg
    No, says a judge.

    In issuing his decision, which blocks Panera Bread’s attempts to keep the burrito maker off its turf, Worcester Superior Court Judge Jeffrey A. Locke relied on testimony from Cambridge chef Chris Schlesinger and a former high-ranking USDA official, not to mention the Webster’s Third New International Dictionary.
    The burrito brouhaha began when Panera, one of the country’s biggest bakery cafes, argued that owners of the White City Shopping Center in Shrewsbury violated a 2001 lease agreement that restricted the mall from renting to another sandwich shop. When the center signed a lease this year with Qdoba, Panera balked, saying the Mexican chain’s burritos violate its sandwich exclusivity clause.

    At the beginning of the year, I said that Panera (PNRA) was overpriced (so are its not-burritos). I was right. The stocks needs to come down some more.

  • The First Islamic Bourse
    Posted by on November 10th, 2006 at 6:34 am

    The Financial Times reports that Dubai has created the world’s first Islamic bourse:

    The more established Dubai Financial Market (DFM) said this week it was restructuring itself to comply with Islamic financial principals. The move comes days before it launches a $435m (€340m, £230m) initial public offering.
    Many investors in Dubai believe the conversion is primarily a marketing exercise. Islamic principals only exclude companies whose main business is pork, alcohol, arms, tobacco or interest, and state-owned DFM has never fallen into these categories. Furthermore, DFM will continue to list conventional banks after its conversion, with fees from banking stocks paid into a separate pool.
    The chief motive, analysts say, is that the main Dubai share index has fallen from a peak of 1,267 points a year ago to 379 points yesterday.

    Sounds like they’re playing to their base.

  • Divergence
    Posted by on November 9th, 2006 at 2:27 pm

    Look at the huge split today between Cyclical stocks (^CYC) and Consumer stocks (^CMR):
    Image287.bmp
    That’s unusually large. Maybe the economy is in better shape than we realize.
    I still think the cyclicals are getting a bit pricey here. Many of these stocks were good buys four years ago, but are now near the top of their range. Here’s a graph of the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index divided by the S&P 500:
    image288.bmp

  • Cisco’s Cash
    Posted by on November 9th, 2006 at 10:12 am

    I’m looking at Cisco’s (CSCO) earnings report and I have to say it’s pretty impressive. The shares are up smartly this morning.
    But here’s something I don’t get. Why is the company sitting on $20 billion in cash? What’s the purpose? Maybe I’m just missing something but that’s about $3.15 a share. Given all the bad money that Cisco has tossed into share repurchases, why don’t they just give shareholders a big-ass one-time dividend? Giving profits to the owners; isn’t that what business is about?

  • Keeping It Real
    Posted by on November 9th, 2006 at 6:37 am

    Mstar.jpg
    This from a recent Investor’s Business Daily story on the coming IPO of KBW, Inc.

    The boutique investment bank, better known as Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, first filed to go public in the heady market of 1999. It withdrew its plans after its then-chief executive was arrested for passing inside information to his girlfriend.

    Girlfriend? Oh, please. Like this was Joanie and Chachi. This is why I get pissed off at the mainstream media. They’re such frickin wimps.
    The story would also be correct if it were written like this:

    It withdrew its plans after its then-chief executive was arrested for passing inside information to his girlfriend, the stripper and porn star Kathryn B. Gannon (aka Marylin Star), pictured above, and star of such titles as Marilyn Whips Wallstreet, Strap-on Sally 11,12, 13 & 14, Marylin Does Miami 1 & 2, Titman and Size Matters. Ms. Gannon also shared her inside information with yet another (let’s say) boyfriend. She then became a fugitive from justice as she fled to her native Canada. Gannon was later arrested, extradited and served three months in prison. One can only imagine it was a steamy, scantily-clad and sexually promiscuous all-female prison.

    Now that’s journalism.

  • Guess Where the Hottest Market in the World Is?
    Posted by on November 8th, 2006 at 10:12 pm

    (I’ll give you a hint: Spain).
    Give up?
    Check the Spanish ETF (EWP):
    EWP.bmp

  • Voter Turnout Reaches All-Time Low Of 17
    Posted by on November 8th, 2006 at 3:03 pm

    From The Onion:

    NEW YORK—Poll data indicates the 2006 mid-term elections were marked by the lowest turnout ever, with only 17 total votes cast. “Some 24 percent of those who showed up were registered Independents between the ages of 39, 54, 71, and 73, while, surprisingly, less than six percent appeared to be soccer moms driving a green 2000 Plymouth Voyager,” said Harrison Cullers of the Advance Logistics Research Group. “This really shows how much impact a get-out-the-vote campaign that averages $2.5 million per voter can have on the important Milwaukee-resident-Dave-Anderson demographic.” Critics say the low voter turnout was only exacerbated by problems with Diebold electronic voting machines, citing one Ohio district in which a local Democrat received negative 12 votes.

  • The Pelosi Portfolio
    Posted by on November 8th, 2006 at 11:06 am

    Check out Madame Speaker’s financial disclosure form. It goes on for 20 pages.