The Battle for $2,000 Checks
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 29th, 2020 at 11:20 am

Here’s the S&P 500 lately: Four straight downs, three straight ups, three straight downs, four straight ups. At least, we’re on pace for our fourth-straight up day which would be another all-time high close for the S&P 500.

The Buy List and the S&P 500 are neck and neck this year. I’ll have all the details this Friday, on New Year’s Day. It looks like it may come down to the final trading day.

There’s not much economic news this morning. The Case-Shiller report said that home prices rose by 8.4% over the last year. The House of Representatives voted for $2,000 stimulus checks, in apparent agreement with President Trump. Now it’s up to the Senate to see what happens.

When asked whether the $600 payments were still on course to go out starting this week as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin previously said, a senior Treasury official said the department expects to make the payments on the same timeline he discussed. If Congress does approve the $2,000 checks, the department will then add to the already issued money.

In a statement explaining his decision to sign the legislation Sunday, Trump noted that the House and potentially the Senate could move to approve larger cash deposits. However, most Republicans in the GOP-held Senate have opposed even a $1,200 check.

Trump’s gambit caps a chaotic eight months of efforts in Washington to send another round of coronavirus relief. Americans waited months for more help after financial lifelines that aided them through the early months of the pandemic expired over the summer. Trump’s delays in signing the year-end bill may cost millions of jobless Americans a week of unemployment benefits after two key relief programs briefly expired.

Update: As I was writing this, the S&P 500 turned negative.

Morning News: December 29, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 29th, 2020 at 7:09 am

A Historic Oil Price Collapse, With Worries Headed Into 2021

Oil’s Turbulent Year Stirs Debate on Relevance of Benchmarks

UAE Emerges As Hub For Companies Helping Venezuela Avoid U.S. Oil Sanctions

The Gospel of Hydrogen Power

Market Edges Toward Euphoria, Despite Pandemic’s Toll

In Pandemic, Fed Showed Its Muscle In Markets Still Matters

A Nation’s Economy Divided: Breadlines vs. Bread Makers

Stanford Scientists Create a Billionaire Factory

Qualtrics Files for U.S. IPO Two Years After Sale to SAP

Tesla to Make India Debut ‘Early’ Next Year

Fiat Chrysler to Start Building Electric Cars in Poland in 2022

Ben Carlson: The Biggest Market Comeback of the Year & Type I and Type II Charlatans

Michael Batnick: Why I’m Not Selling Bitcoin & Two Different Markets

Jeff Carter: Sometimes They Don’t Work

Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday – Anything Goes…This Is Not Your FAANG Market Anymore.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Stocks Jump to New High on Stimulus
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 28th, 2020 at 12:06 pm

The stock market is up again this morning. It’s hard to read the mind of the market, but I suspect that traders are pleased that President Trump signed the stimulus bill into law.

At one point, the S&P 500 got to another new all-time intra-day high of 3,737.82. The Dow got to a new high as well. Tech is leading and Energy is lagging. Airlines are doing well. Small-caps, which had been doing so well, are also lagging the overall market.

All the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with financial, energy and industrials among the biggest gainers.

The S&P 1500 airlines index added 2.2% as carriers are set to receive $15 billion in addition payroll assistance under the new government aid.

Cruise operators Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd also rose between 3.3% and 4.3%.

Trading volumes are expected to be thin in the final week of the year that has historically been a seasonally strong period for equities.

After a sharp recovery from a coronavirus crash in March, the S&P 500 is on track to rise more than 15% this year on the back of a loose monetary policy, high liquidity and a COVID-19 vaccine program.

CWS Market Review – December 25, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 25th, 2020 at 2:00 pm

I hope you’re having a wonderful Christmas. Here are the 25 stocks for the 2021 Crossing Wall Street Buy List:

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
AFLAC (AFL)
Ansys (ANSS)
Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR)
Cerner (CERN)
Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP)
Church & Dwight (CHD)
Danaher (DHR)
Disney (DIS)
FactSet Research Systems (FDS)
Fiserv (FISV)
HEICO (HEI)
Hershey (HSY)
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Middleby (MIDD)
Miller Industries (MLR)
Moody’s (MCO)
Ross Stores (ROST)
Sherwin-Williams (SHW)
Silgan (SLGN)
Stepan (SCL)
Stryker (SYK)
Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)
Trex (TREX)
Zoetis (ZTS)

The five new stocks are Abbott Laboratories (ABT), HEICO (HEI), Miller Industries (MLR), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) and Zoetis (ZTS).

Briefly, Abbott Labs is a diversified healthcare giant. HEICO is a former Buy List member. The company makes replacement airplane parts. Miller has a great niche business. They make and sell towing and recovery equipment. If a car or truck needs to be hauled out of something and then hauled away somewhere, odds are Miller’s got a vehicle that can do it. Thermo Fisher makes all the stuff researchers need for lab work. Zoetis is a major player in animal health.

I’ll have more details on the new buys in upcoming issues.

The five sells are Becton, Dickinson (BDX), Eagle Bancorp (EGBN), Globe Life (GL), Hormel Foods (HRL) and RPM International (RPM).

To recap, I assume the Buy List is equally weighted among the 25 stocks. The buy price for each stock will be the closing price on Tuesday, December 31, 2020. The new Buy List goes into effect on Monday, January 4, 2021, the first day of trading of the new year.

I’ll send you another email on January 1 with all the performance details for 2020 and the rebalancing numbers for 2021.

If you’re a shareholder of the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF (CWS), all portfolio changes are made automatically. Also, at the end of the year, all the positions are rebalanced automatically.

I also wanted to touch on FactSet’s (FDS) earnings report, which came out on Monday. For its fiscal Q1, FactSet earned $2.88 per share. That beat Wall Street’s estimate of $2.75 per share. Overall, it was a solid quarter for FactSet. For the coming year (ending in August), FactSet sees earnings ranging between $10.75 and $11.15 per share. You can see more details on the blog.

Happy Holidays! – Eddy

Merry Christmas
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 25th, 2020 at 7:18 am

One of the most recognized statues in Manhattan, a 7,000-pound bronze “Charging Bull,” sculpted and owned by Arturo Di Modic stands on a sidewalk on lower Broadway near wall Street in New York City, December 21, 2004. The sculpture is for sale by Di Modica for a minimum bid of $5 million provided that the buyer keep the pavement-pawing statue where it stands in the financial district and donate it to the city of New York. REUTERS/Mike Segar

I wanted to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and profitable new year.

This has been a challenging year for all of us. The coronavirus has upended our lives and brought a terrible toll. Fortunately, a vaccine is on its way and I hope our lives can soon get back to normal.

We’ve also had our successes this year. The Buy List was up again in 2020. The blog continues to grow its readership. The newsletter now has a record number of subscribers and our Twitter following is growing as well.

Our ETF turned four years old. I want to thank all our shareholders for their trust and confidence in me.

I also want to thank my tireless editor, Marcia Hippen. She also posts the invaluable morning news links. I also want to acknowledge some of my fellow financial bloggers Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Morgan Housel, Michael Batnick, Howard Lindzon, Tadas Viskanta, Jeff Miller and many, many others for their continued support.

I’d also like to thank the people who follow and interact with me each day on Twitter.

Most of all, I want to thank all of my readers for your continued support.

Let’s hope 2021 brings us more success!

Morning News: December 25, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 25th, 2020 at 7:02 am

‘Parting Is Such Sweet Sorrow’: EU and UK Clinch Narrow Brexit Accord

Brexit Trade Deal Sparks Relief but UK Market Will Bear Scars

Pelosi Sets New Vote as GOP Foils Move on Trump’s $2,000 Checks

Benchmark 30-year Mortgage Rate Drops to Record Low 2.66%

Small Donations Aiming to Make a Big Splash

“DeJoy is the Real-Life Grinch”: Postmaster General’s Pre-Election Sabotage Fuels Christmas Delays

‘Stay Alive and Survive’: Ski Resorts Brace for a Pandemic Season

Japan Considers Fines to Get Bars to Close Early Due to Virus

‘You Checked Tesla the Most’: Robinhood Recaps From a Volatile Year

Musk Says It’s ‘Impossible’ to Take Tesla Private, Mulls New IPO

The Plant-Based Meat Industry Has Grown Into A $20 Billion Business — But Challenges Remain

‘Wonder Woman’ Likely to Lasso More TV Viewers Than Theatergoers

Howard Lindzon: More Howie Predictions – Loyalty Is Up For Review

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Light Trading on Christmas Eve
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 24th, 2020 at 10:50 am

The stock market closes at 1 pm ET. Trading is pretty light today. There’s not much action going on. Trex (TREX) came within a few pennies of a new high. The stock is up 92% for us this year.

In Washington, they’re fighting again over stimulus. Democrats want to send $2,000 checks but many Republicans want smaller checks.

House Republicans on Thursday blocked a Democratic attempt to pass $2,000 direct payments to Americans, as the fate of the massive coronavirus relief package passed by Congress earlier in the week hangs in the balance.

The Democrats moved to increase the size of the checks after President Donald Trump threatened to oppose the $2 trillion pandemic aid and federal funding bill because it included only $600 in direct payments rather than $2,000.

Congress passed the proposal Monday after Trump took no role in weeks of talks. The plan included $900 billion in coronavirus relief.

Morning News: December 24, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 24th, 2020 at 7:56 am

On Cusp of Brexit Trade Deal, EU and UK Haggle Over Fish

With Money, and Waste, China Fights for Chip Independence

China Targets Jack Ma’s Alibaba Empire in Monopoly Probe

The Year the Fed Changed Forever

New Signs of Economic Distress Emerge as Trump Imperils Aid Deal

Pandemic Prompts Wall Street to Look South for Florida’s Life and Work Benefits

M&A Deals Come Roaring Back as Executives Plot Post-Covid Future

How The Santa Claus Rally Could Predict January And 2021 Returns

‘What’s the Alternative?’ SolarWinds Boosts Security Firms’ Bottom Lines

Poultry Farms in Apartment 13D Show Scale of Pandemic-Aid Fraud

Ben Carlson: A Short History of Chasing The Best Performing Funds

Michael Batnick: 3 Reasons Why You Shouldn’t Wait For the Stock Market to Crash

Howard Lindzon: Howie’s 2021 Predictions…

Joshua Brown: We Must Give More Relief To Americans For The Fake Virus I Said Would Disappear On Its Own & Interview With This Year’s Best Active Manager, Cathie Wood

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Jobless Claims Fall to 803,000
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 23rd, 2020 at 10:29 am

The stock market is up again this morning, and the S&P 500 is back above 3,700. Today is a particularly good day for cyclical stocks. Many energy stocks are doing well as are many banks. At the other end, many tech stocks are lagging the market.

On our Buy List, Check Point Software (CHKP) has been quite strong lately. I suppose that a massive government hack is good for business. Over Friday, Monday and Tuesday, the shares gained more than 11%.

We also had some good news, finally, from the weekly jobless claims report. The number of Americans filing claims fell to 803,000. Economists had been expecting 888,000. The number for last week’s report was revised higher by 7,000 to 892,000.

President Trump said that he wants Congress to revise the stimulus bill it just passed. The president said he wants to see larger checks and less wasteful items. This news blind-sided official Washington. If the president refuses to sign the bill, the government will shut down on December 29.

Morning News: December 23, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 23rd, 2020 at 7:02 am

Global Cargo Logjam Deepens, Delaying Goods Bound For Retailers, Automakers

Pound’s Brexit Jolt Will Be Wilder Now That Liquidity Is Thin

Investors Bet Weak Dollar Will Keep Risk Rally Going in 2021

China-E.U. Talks Hit Another Snag as Biden Camp Objects

There’s a Way Biden Can Raise More From the Rich Without Higher Taxes

The Tech That Was Fixed in 2020 and the Tech That Still Needs Fixing

How China Lost Patience With Jack Ma, Its Loudest Billionaire

Facebook Support for Liability Reform Has Little Guys Nervous

Walmart Sued Over Role It Played In Opioid Crisis

Amazon to Face U.S. Union Push in Year Ahead

Nick Maggiulli: Running Out of Time Before Running Out of Money

Ben Carlson: Investing In Stocks At All-Time Highs

Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: Never Stop Buying Lottery Tickets

Howard Lindzon: The SPAC Fantasy Stock Market

Joshua Brown: Beat the Compound! A Simulated Stock Trading Game Coming in January! & The Big 2021 Surprise for Investors

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.