Morning News: August 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 1st, 2024 at 7:04 am

For Europe’s Big Oil, Profits Still Count on Crude

Four in Ten German Manufacturers Eye Move Abroad on Energy Costs

Exxon Almost Walked Away From Its $1 Trillion Oil Discovery

Shell Earnings Beat Market Views Despite Lower Gas Trading, Refining Margin Hit

Midwestern Farmers Who Say Yes to Solar Power Face Neighbors’ Wrath

How Thousands of Middlemen Are Gaming the H-1B Program

More Than 100 Silicon Valley Investors Pledge to Support Kamala Harris

Trump Promises Lower Interest Rates, but the President Doesn’t Control Those

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2020

Fed on Course for September Rate Cut as Risks to Job Market Grow

Why the Fed Risks Falling Behind

Societe Generale Hurt by Weak Performance at French Retail Unit

Barclays Announces $960 Million Buyback, Lifts Outlook as Investment Bank Shines

Ackman’s IPO Dream Implodes From $25 Billion to Zero in Weeks

Three Big Differences Between the AI and Dot-Com Bubbles

DC Welcomes Ex-OpenAI Board Member After Sam Altman Drama

Meta’s Upbeat Earnings Buy Time for AI Investment to Pay Off

Meta’s Lesson in Allaying Wall Street’s A.I. Fears

Reddit Acquires Generative AI Startup Memorable AI

Power-Hungry Data Centers Are Gobbling Up Texas Amid AI Boom

Applied Materials Is Denied US Chips Grant for $4 Billion Silicon Valley Project

ArcelorMittal Trims Steel Outlook After Earnings Slumped on Lower Steel Prices

Spirit Airlines Curtailing Workforce as Quarterly Loss Widens

Nike Paid Him to Make Gold-Dipped Sneakers for LeBron. Now, It Is Suing Him.

After Years of Raising Prices, Food Companies Hit Consumers’ Limits

Wendy’s Cuts Sales Guidance as US Guest Counts Drop

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Morning News: July 31, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 31st, 2024 at 7:06 am

Eurozone Inflation Picks Up Pace in Blow to Rate-Cut Hopes

Germany’s Joblessness Holds Steady in Rare Hope for Economy

Zelenskiy Signs Law Allowing Ukraine Debt Payment Suspension

China Home Sales Slump Drags On Despite Latest Rescue

China Wants to Start a National Internet ID System

China’s Economic Tea Leaves Offer Optimism for Metals Bulls

Japan’s Central Bank Hikes Key Rate Hours Before the Fed

Ueda’s Big Day Was Lost in a Communication Black Hole

The Haves and Have-Nots at the Center of America’s Inflation Fight

Politics Makes the Fed’s Job Trickier, but Doesn’t Drive Its Decisions

More Than 100 Silicon Valley Investors Pledge to Support Kamala Harris

Ares Breaks Private Credit Record With New $34 Billion Fund

Citi Breached a Rule Meant to Keep Banks Safe, Made Liquidity Reporting Errors

HSBC Offers $3 Billion Buyback as Wealth Income Offsets Rate Cut Anxiety

Better 401(k)s Boost Millennial Retirement Outlook, Report Says

The Quiet Power of Car-Free Neighborhoods

How to Calculate the Value of an MBA

ASML, Tokyo Electron Shielded From US Chip Export Rules, For Now

Intel to Cut Thousands of Jobs to Reduce Costs, Fund Rebound

Startup Making 21st-Century Power Lines Gets a $60 Million Boost

Boeing Names Ortberg as CEO to Revive Embattled Planemaker

Delta CEO Says CrowdStrike Tech-Outage Costs Could Reach $500 Million

Inside the WSJ’s Investigation of Tesla’s Autopilot Crash Risks

GSK Lifts Guidance After HIV, Cancer Treatments Boost Sales

Humana Tumbles After Warning of Higher Hospital Admissions

Danone Backs Guidance as Shoppers Welcome Easing Price Hikes

Adidas Sets a Faster Pace as Sneaker Sales Sprint Amid Summer of Sport

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CWS Market Review – July 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2024 at 9:31 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Q2 Earnings Are Still Looking Good

We’re getting to the heart of Q2 earnings season and so far, the results are pretty good. I would have expected to see more damage from elevated interest rates, but Corporate America seems to have weathered the threat fairly well.

According to numbers from FactSet, 41% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported so far. Of those, 78% have beaten their earnings estimates – that’s very high – and 60% have topped their revenue estimates.

FactSet said we’re currently tracking earnings growth for Q2 at 9.8%. If that’s right, it will be the best quarter for earnings growth since Q4 2021. That’s a lot better than was expected. On June 30, Wall Street had been expecting earnings growth of 8.9%.

Here’s a look at the S&P 500 (black line, left scale) along with it earnings (blue line, right scale). The two lines are a scale ratio of 18 to 1 so whenever the lines cross, The P/E ratio is exactly 18.

The net profit margin for companies is 12.1% which is high by historic standards. Interestingly, Wall Street expects margins to go even higher. Analysts see margins of 12.4% for Q3 and Q4.

I’ve also looked to see if there’s any trend in guidance. As of now, guidance is perfectly even. For Q3, 16 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, and 16 have issued negative guidance. Overall, stronger earnings can support higher share prices. Also, lower interest rates can give a boost to valuations. This is the one-two punch that the market needs.

The stock market had a brief misstep recently when it fell six times in seven trading sessions. The S&P 500 even dropped below its 50-day moving average, which is often an omen of bearish sentiment.

Are we out of the woods? I’m afraid it’s too early to say. The S&P 500 was up very modestly on Friday and Monday, and it was down again today. The big story on Wall Street is the summer rotation, and it’s still unfolding. The plot is easy. Investors are fleeing large-cap tech stocks and seeking safety in smaller value stocks. Microsoft will report earnings after today’s close while Amazon, Facebook and Apple are due to report later this week.

Today’s trading was another example of the rotation. The Nasdaq was down over 1% today while the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index was up.

It’s hard to convey how dramatic this turn has been. All those big-name tech stocks have gotten battered. Nvidia is now 26% below its 52-week high. That’s a loss of $900 billion in a little over one month. Meanwhile, those overlooked small names are doing quite well. This has been an especially good time for our Buy List, and CWS.

There are several ways to show the rotation on a chart. They all basically illuminate the same phenomenon.

In this chart, I have the S&P 500 Growth ETF divided by the S&P 500 Value ETF (black). The other line is the Nasdaq Composite divided by the Russell 2000 (blue). Notice how the two lines went from a low correlation to a very high one.

Don’t Expect Any Changes Tomorrow from the Fed

Last Thursday, the government released its first estimate for Q2 GDP growth. I have to confess that my expectations were way off. I thought the U.S. economy had grown in real annualized terms of about 1%, maybe a little higher. Instead, the economy grew by 2.8% for Q2.

To be fair, I wasn’t alone. The consensus on Wall Street had been for growth of 2.1%. The economy did a lot better than it did during Q1 when it grew by 1.4%.

Digging into the details, this was a solid report.

Personal consumption expenditures, the main proxy in the Bureau of Economic Analysis report for consumer activity, increased 2.3% for the quarter, up from the 1.5% acceleration in Q1. Both services and goods spending saw solid increases for the quarter.

Inventories also were a significant contributor, adding 0.82 percentage point to the total gain. Government spending added a tailwind as well, rising 3.9% at the federal level, including a 5.2% surge in defense outlays.

On the downside, imports, which subtract from GDP, jumped 6.9%, the biggest quarterly rise since Q1 of 2022. Exports were up just 2%.

On Friday, the government released the PCE price data for June. This data is important to keep an eye on because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

For June, the headline price index rose by 0.1% which matched expectations. Over the last year, headline PCE is up by 2.5%. That’s still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but it’s getting close.

We also want to look at the core PCE which excludes volatile food and energy prices. For June, the core PCE was up by 0.2% which also matched expectations. Over the last year, core PCE is up by 2.6. Again, it’s above the Fed’s preference but it’s a lot better than where it was two years ago.

The Federal Reserve started its two-day meeting today. The central bank’s policy statement will be released tomorrow afternoon at 2 p.m. ET. I’ll break the suspense: the Fed won’t make any changes to interest rates at this meeting, but this will be the last time. We can almost certainly expect the Fed to cut rates at its September meeting.

Wall Street currently thinks there’s a 4% chance of a rate cut tomorrow, but there’s an 85% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in September, and a 13% chance of a 0.50% cut. I doubt the Fed will give us a 0.50% cut, but it’s not unthinkable. Traders currently expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

I’m skeptical of looking at data that goes too far out, but futures traders expect the Fed to cut three more times in the first half of 2025. They may or may not be right, but it’s the change in interest rate expectations that’s driving the big rotation.

The labor market is mostly healthy for now, but I’m not sure how long that can last. As the New York Times noted, “Job openings have come down sharply, part-time employment is up, fewer companies are turning to temporary help to fill gaps and fewer workers are job hopping.”

I’ll also point out that historically, this has been a good time to be in the market. From July 28 of an election year until the end of the year, the Dow has gained an average of 10.07%. Citigroup said that stocks and bonds have generally done well around Fed meetings.

Stock Focus: Flowers Foods (FLO)

Many of the stocks I tell you about aren’t widely followed on Wall Street. This week, we’ll look at Flowers Foods (FLO) which does have some coverage. I see that eight Wall Street analysts follow the stock.

Flowers makes a wide range of packaged bakery products including “fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley’s, and Tastykake brand names.”

Flowers is a good example of a defensive stock. It’s been a wonderful stock for decades. Since October 1990, the stock is up 12,000%. Would you have guessed that Flowers Food outperformed Intel over that time? I wouldn’t have.

Flowers’s next earnings report will probably be in about three weeks. I’d stay away from the stock right now, but if there are signs that the business is improving, then Flowers could be a very good buy.

There could be an opportunity for shareholders. Flowers hasn’t done well lately, and it missed its last two earnings reports. The company announced plans to shut down a bun-making plant. Last month, the board increased the quarterly dividend by one penny to 24 cents per share. The shares currently yield a little over 4%.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 30th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Venezuela’s Opposition Says It Has Proof of Election Fraud

Japanese Businesses Are Taking Price-Raising Lessons to Survive

Understanding Nigeria’s Currency Slump, and What Happens Next

Eurozone Economy Keeps Pace Despite German Weakness

Carbon Credits Found to Be Mostly ‘Ineffective’ in Key Study

How the US Power Grid Became a Mess—Just When We Need It Most

The Port of Los Angeles Has a Power Problem

Risky Bet on US Office Buildings Becomes Debacle for South Korea

U.S. National Debt Tops $35 Trillion for First Time

Time or Money? What’s a Better Investment as Election Heats Up

Here’s Where Labor-Hungry Nations Are Easing Visa Rules

Is the Labor Market About to Crack? It’s the Key Question for the Fed.

The Last American Antislavery Campaign

History Favors Stock and Bond Bulls Alike When the FOMC Meets

Buffett Cuts BofA Stake, Unloading $3 Billion This Month

Microsoft Needs to Show Azure Strength to Stem Great Rotation

This $25 Billion Private Equity Target Is a Puzzle

Luxury Heir Alleges His $13 Billion Hermès Fortune Has Vanished

How One Man Lost $740,000 to Scammers Targeting His Retirement Savings

SoFi Boosts Its 2024 Profit Forecast for a Second Time

Amazon Pushes Fast Delivery Into Rural Areas in Challenge to Post Office

Pfizer Lifts Outlook as Company Seeks to Rebuild Post-Covid

Ozempic’s Biggest Side Effect: Turning Denmark Into A ‘Pharmastate’?

BP Profit Beats Market Views Despite Weaker Refining Margins

Japan Built Thailand’s Car Industry. Now China Is Gunning for It.

Chinese E.V. Makers Rush in and Upend a Country’s Entire Auto Market

Tesla to Recall More Than 1.8 Million Vehicles Due to Hood Issue

Olympic Fever Drives Surge of Chinese, Japanese Fans in Paris

Will Free Beer Make Travelers More Responsible?

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Morning News: July 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 29th, 2024 at 7:06 am

Putin, Kim and the $4 Trillion Threat on Cold War’s Last Frontier

Pakistan Cuts Rates as Policymakers Try to Revive Economy

Fitch Upgrades Pakistan Credit Rating on Better External Funding

Japan Wanted Higher Inflation. It’s Here, and It Hurts.

Why Global Investors Are Watching What Japan Does Next

Traders Fret as 32-Hour Central Bank Spree Hangs Over Market

Trump Became Crypto Believer After Falling in Love With NFTs of Himself

A Digital Coin Based on Baby Trump? Yup.

Business Is Buzzing Again for the Meme Makers of the Left

Big Business Signals to Fed It’s Either Rate Cuts or Job Cuts

A Fed Rate Cut Is Finally Within View

Ackman’s Wait for His Long-Awaited Fund Offering

Amazon Paid Almost $1 Billion for Twitch in 2014. It’s Still Losing Money.

Loews Profit Rises on Strong Premiums and Investment Income; Names New CEO

Pearson’s New CEO Promises Cost Savings After Restructuring

ArcLight to Invest $500 Million in Wind and Solar to Meet AI Demand

Germans Combat Climate Change From Their Balconies

The Rush to Shore Up the Power Grid Against Hurricanes, Heat and Hail

Jet Engines Are Breaking Down. Their Manufacturers Are Raking In Cash.

GSK, Flagship Enter Multibillion-Dollar Drug Discovery Deal

Philips’ Earnings Beat Forecasts as Orders Recover

F.D.A. Approves Blood Test for Colon Cancer Detection

McDonald’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020 as Traffic Drops

Heineken Sinks After China Impairment Hits Earnings

Zyns, Vapes and the Very Weird Market for New Nicotine Products

Kang Pledges $50 Million So Female Athletes Aren’t Trained as ‘Small Men’

‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Reverses Marvel’s Box Office Slump

Hollywood’s Message to Red States: Our Movies Are for You

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Morning News: July 26, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 26th, 2024 at 7:02 am

Farming Is Hip in Brazil, Where a New Generation Is Outpacing the US

Why US LNG Is Attracting Foreign Investment

Putin’s Latest Problem Is Runaway Inflation

Russia Opts for Big Rate Hike After Inflation Thwarts Easing

China Weighs Tenfold Fee Increase on High-Frequency Traders

Fed Seen Signaling September Rate Cut at Next Week’s Meeting

Where to Invest in Our Brave New Multipolar World

Eight Things Republicans Get Wrong About Free Trade

Let the Pros Play With the ‘Trump (or Harris) Trade’

Singapore’s Aspiring Bankers Skip Class to ‘Stack’ Internships

U.S. Accuses Prominent Short Seller Andrew Left of Fraud

Harvard’s $465 Million in Tax Benefits Draw New Scrutiny

Billionaires in Korea Face Relief From One of World’s Highest Death Taxes

Florida Housing Market Faces ‘Nightmare Scenarios’ as Deals Collapse

Apple’s iPhone Drops From China Top Five as Local Foes Rise

TikTok Goes All-Out in Washington With Its US Survival at Stake

Rupert Murdoch’s Game of Thrones

Cold-Storage Giant Lineage Raises $4.4 Billion in IPO

Eisai, Biogen Alzheimer’s Drug Denied by European Regulators

BASF Backs Guidance After Cost-Cutting Offsets Revenue Hit From Lower Prices

McDonald’s $5 Value Meal Is Slowly Bringing Diners Back

American Airlines’ Attempt to Strong-Arm Its Customers Into Buying Tickets Directly Backfired, Sending Its Profits Down Nearly 50%

U.S. Automakers Had a Punishing Week — with a Silver Lining for Shoppers

Mercedes-Benz Lowers Margin Goal for Cars Division After Earnings Drop

Ferrari Narrowly Dodges Deepfake Scam Simulating Deal-Hungry CEO

International Game Technology, Everi Scrap Earlier Tie-Up Plans for $6.3B Deal With Apollo

Hollywood Actors to Go on Strike Against Video Game Companies

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Morning News: July 25, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 25th, 2024 at 7:07 am

With $150 Billion in Default, Maduro Needs Sanctions Relief Fast

Macron Seeks to Reassure CEOs on France at Pre-Olympics Lunch

German Business Sentiment Darkens as Clouds Continue to Gather

China Unexpectedly Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Since 2020

Land of the Rising Banks

Yen Surges as Traders Bet the Big Turning Point Is Finally Near

Yen’s Sudden Gain Sparks ‘Widespread Liquidation’ Across Markets

Banks Borrow Over £30 Billion From BOE Repo Amid Liquidity Shift

Revenge Spending Zapped by Consumers Tapped Out on High Prices

An Increase in Uninsured Drivers Is Pushing Up Costs for Everyone Else

Stocks Extend Losses as Worries Go Beyond AI Froth

NYCB’s Flagstar to Sell Mortgage-Servicing Unit for $1.4 Billion

The Illicit Flow of Technology to Russia Goes Through This Hong Kong Address

Microsoft’s World of Warcraft Workers Vote to Unionize

Medicaid Was a Boon to Insurers During the Pandemic. Now, Not So Much.

Halting the Bird Flu Outbreak in Cows May Require Thinking Beyond Milk

AbbVie Sees Higher Profits as New Drugs Offset Humira Decline

How Government Programs Help Fuel Tesla Profit

Stellantis Earnings Nearly Halved, Leading Car Industry Slump

Hyundai Motor Profit Jumped 25%, Led by U.S. Demand

American Air Cuts Profit Outlook as Fare Sales Hurt Carriers

Southwest Airlines Is Ditching Open Seating on Flights

Royal Caribbean Restarts Dividends After Four-Year Hiatus

The Secret Battle for the Future of the Murdoch Empire

Universal Music Sheds $16 Billion in Market Value After Revenues Disappoint

Disney Bets on Deadpool, Wolverine and Dirty Jokes to Save Marvel

N.B.A. Announces Lucrative Rights Deals With Disney, Comcast and Amazon

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Morning News: July 24, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 24th, 2024 at 7:04 am

India’s Government Plans to Steadily Lower Debt Ratio to 50%

The 23-Hour Shopping Frenzy: Argentines Stampede Over Border

French Stalemate, Listless German Industry Weigh on Eurozone Economy

Ex-Banker Behind $1.7 Trillion Japan Rally Says It’s Just Starting

Singapore Has World’s Most Powerful Passport After Unseating Europeans

Beefed-Up Olympics Security Thins Out Tourists, Squeezing Merchants

The Best Job Training Program In America

The Hottest Job Market in a Generation Is Over

Why Paper Checks Refuse to Die

I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now.

Mutiny in the Bond Market as Billionaires Pick a Debt Fight

Blackstone Mortgage REIT Cuts Dividend as Distress Increases

BNP Paribas Posts Earnings Beat, Backs Guidance

Spanish Bank Santander Raises 2024 Guidance After Earnings Beat

He Was an Online Drug Lord. Now He’s a Crypto Entrepreneur.

Evercore Posts Record Revenue on Dealmaking Rebound

CrowdStrike Blames Defect in Content Update for Epic IT Crash

Microsoft’s AI Assistants Will Revolutionize the Office — One Day

Alphabet’s Earnings, Revenue Surpass Forecasts. Capital Spending Surprises the Street.

What Marketers Should Know About Google’s ‘Surprising, but Not Shocking’ Cookies About-Face

GE Vernova Raises Guidance Amid Global Push for Electrification

Tesla’s Auto Woes Crash Elon Musk’s AI Dreams

Tesla Profit Slumps as Musk Tethers Fortunes to Robotaxis

Porsche AG Profits Bruised by Tough Chinese Market, High Supplier Costs

AT&T Mobile-Phone Subscribers Notch Surprising Gain

Your Cup of Coffee Is Already Expensive. It’s About to Get Even Worse

LVMH Shows the Luxury Sector Is in Pain

The Dior Bag Uproar That Shook South Korean Politics

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CWS Market Review – July 23, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 23rd, 2024 at 6:17 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Q2 Earnings Season Is Looking Good

The stock market fell again today. The S&P 500 has now had four losing sessions in the last five days. Last week was the second-worst week for the S&P 500 this year. To be honest, we really haven’t had many bad weeks for several months.

Today’s market was a replay of a familiar theme. The broader market, including tech stocks, was down while the small-caps were up. For the day, the Nasdaq closed down a little bit, just 0.06%, and the Russell 2000 was up 1.18%.

We’re getting into the thick of Q2 earnings season. It’s still early. Overall, about 20% of the S&P 500 has reported so far but it’s looking good. On our Buy List, we’ve already had an earnings beat from Abbott Labs. Moody’s had a very nice beat and raised guidance. Polaris, however, missed and lowered guidance.

So far, the S&P 500’s earnings are on track to grow by 9.40% for Q2. That’s a decent number. It’s up from expectations of 8.63% one month ago. As we know, Wall Street likes to put a lid on expectations so they can later claim that they’re exceeding them. As has been said before, Wall Street is a game of expecting expectations.

Of the companies that have reported so far, 87.1% have beaten on earnings and 60.0% have beaten on sales. Of that, 55.7% have beaten on both earnings and sales. These numbers will probably trend lower as more earnings reports come out.

The big winners are financials. We saw some strong results from many large banks. Last month, Wall Street was expecting earnings growth of 4.55% from financials. Now the growth rate is trending at 13.89%. Energy is the big loser. In June, analysts were expecting growth of 12.62%. Now earnings growth for energy is tracking at -1.49%. It’s hard to make money in energy when oil fell from around $87 per barrel in April to $72 by June.

These are the early numbers. We still have the Magnificent Seven to report. In fact, Tesla and Google are due to report on Tuesday after the close. Wall Street expects collective growth from the Mag 7 of 30%.

Wall Street expects Google to report quarterly revenues of $84.21 billion. That’s up from $74.6 billion last year. For earnings, analysts are looking for adjusted earnings of $1.85 per share.

For Tesla, Wall Street is looking for earnings of 62 cents per share. That’s down from 91 cents for last year’s Q2. The stock is going for nearly 100 times this year’s earnings.

Barclays Raises Its S&P 500 Target to 5,600

Bloomberg points out that since 1928, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.2% during the third quarter of election years.

I usually don’t pay too much attention to price targets from Wall Street firms, but I noticed that Barclays today raised its 2024 price target on the S&P 500 from 5,300 to 5,600. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs had previously raised their price targets. Barclays had already raised its price target earlier this year.

I think these increases are noteworthy as they show confidence that the market’s strong performance during the first half of this year wasn’t an outlier. If the Fed soon starts lowering interest rates, that will help elevate valuation levels. Barclays also raised its earnings forecast for this year from $235 per share to $241 per share. If that’s right, then the market is going for 24 times earnings. That ain’t cheap.

Shares of UPS fell after it reported a disappointing earnings report. The company also cut its revenue guidance from $94.5 billion to $93 billion. The stock may be heading for its worst day ever.

Coca-Cola had a good earnings report. The soda company earned 84 cents per share which was a three-cent beat. Revenue came in at $12.36 billion compared with estimates of $11.76 billion. Coke now expects organic revenue growth of 9% to 10% this year. That’s up from the previous range of 8% to 9%.

We’re also witnessing lower home sales but at higher prices. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell to 3.89 million for June (that’s seasonally adjusted and annualized). Sales are down 5.4% from last year. This was the 34th month in a row of declining year-over-year sales.

Even though sales were down last month, prices are still going up. The median sales price for June reached $426,900. That’s up 4.1% from last year and a new all-time high.

Lower sales and higher prices aren’t the contradiction they may seem. Perhaps higher rates have crowded out all buyers except those who aren’t so price sensitive (e.g. rich folks).

Wiz Walks Away From $23 Billion

Have you ever turned down $23 billion? I can’t say I have, but that’s what Israeli cybersecurity startup Wiz did.

Google had been talking with Wiz about a possible acquisition. The number that was apparently on the table was $23 billion. This would have been Google’s largest deal ever. Wiz said, no thanks.

The company said it’s now going to focus on an initial public offering. CEO Assaf Rappaport said, “Saying no to such humbling offers is tough, but with our exceptional team, I feel confident in making that choice.”

The details about this deal have been hush-hush. Neither company admitted they were in talks with each other. Earlier this year, Wiz raised $1 billion from venture capital. That deal valued Wiz at $12 billion.

I have to confess to having some sympathy with Wiz in this matter. I completely understand why a company would prefer to keep its independence rather than being a shiny cog in a very large machine. Also, getting a deal together can take a long time, plus there are tons of regulatory issues.

There’s enormous growth potential in this market. Two years ago, Wiz said it generated $100 million in annual revenue. The company says that’s now up to $350 million.

Google has been working hard in recent years to boost its cybersecurity presence. I think we’ll see more deals in the future.

Outside of earnings, there are some economic reports coming later this week. On Thursday, the government will release its first estimate for Q2 GDP growth. The economy grew at a real annualized rate of 1.4% for Q1. Economists expect growth of 1.9% for Q2. I suspect that might be too high, but we’ll see. Wall Street expects something close to the mid-2% level. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects GDP growth of 2.7%.

On Friday, we’ll get a look at the PCE price data for June. The expectations are that core and headline PCE will have increased by 0.1%. The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and it’s nearly universally believed that the Fed will leave rates alone one more time.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 23, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 23rd, 2024 at 7:07 am

Spiders, Floods Join List of Things Disrupting Global Trade

U.S. Importers Are Rushing Goods in Early Ahead of Shipping Disruptions

Why Is the US Deficit So Big? Depends on Who You Ask

Can Kamala Harris Sell ‘Bidenomics’?

A Harris Presidency Would Carry Baton on Financial Industry Crackdown

Private Equity Gets Creative to Buy Time for More Gains. Clients Say Pay Me Now

Private Equity Is Illiquid by Design. Why Worry About It?

Jamie Dimon’s Handpicked Wall Street Duo Hunts More Market Share

Swiss Bank Julius Baer Taps Goldman Sachs Executive as CEO

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Trims BYD Stake to Below 5%

Founder of South Korea’s Kakao Arrested for Suspected Stock Manipulation

CrowdStrike Outage Is Another Sharp Warning for Banks

Preparing for the Next Worldwide Tech Outage

Wiz Rejects Google’s $23 Billion Offer, Seeks IPO Instead

A.I. Can Write Poetry, but It Struggles With Math

Tesla Stages $386 Billion Comeback as Musk Elevates AI Over EVs

SoftBank’s Chief Pitches a New Path for Self-Driving Cars

Toyota Motor to Buy Back Shares Worth More Than $5 Billion From Japan Banks, Insurers

G.M. Will Restart Cruise Taxi Service

Shell Aims to Sell Scottish Wind Sites in Green Energy Reversal

Lockheed Boosts Forecast on Strong Fighter Jet, Radar Sales

China’s Richest Man Risks Losing Crown After $13 Billion Wipeout

Coca-Cola Tops Earnings Estimates, Hikes Full-Year Outlook as Global Demand Rises

Jake Paul’s W Brand Raises $11 Million to Compete With Axe, Old Spice

Philip Morris Lifts Annual Profit View on Zyn Pouch Strength

Warner Bros. Discovery Matches Rival Bid to Keep N.B.A. Broadcast Rights

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