Morning News: April 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 8th, 2024 at 5:53 am

Japan Breakeven Inflation Matches Record High Amid Weak Yen

China Maintains Yuan Defense After Currency Nears Red Line

How India Can Take China’s Growth Crown

Yellen Delivers Sharp Message to China Leaders With a Smile

Euro-Zone Companies Expect Wage Increases to Moderate, ECB Says

Euro Zone Investor Morale Hits Two-Year High in April

Turkey Meets Four-Day Work Week With Aksa’s Landmark Decision

The Odds of $100 Oil Are Rising as Supply Shocks Convulse the Market

Zurich Insurance to Halt Coverage of New Fossil-Fuel Exposures

The LSE Losing Giants Like Shell Is a Very Real Threat

Eclipse to Cut US Solar by 30 Gigawatts as Moon Shades Panels

Philippines Central Bank Stands Pat as Inflation Worries Bubble Back Up

Doubts Creep In About a Fed Rate Cut This Year

Traders Favor Two Fed Cuts in 2024 as Treasury Yields Near 4.5%

UBS on the Brink of Switzerland’s ‘Too Big to Fail’ Reckoning

UBS JV to Acquire Credit Suisse Japan Wealth Management Business

Tesla Set to Recover Top Spot in Cathie Wood’s Flagship Fund

Tesla Is Unveiling a Robotaxi. This Is What It’s Worth

Is Corporate America in Denial About Trump?

Steelworkers Push Back Against $14 Billion Deal for U.S. Steel as Vote Looms

TSMC Gets $11.6 Billion in US Grants, Loans for Three Chip Fabs

Kimberly-Clark to Sell PPE Business to Ansell for $640 Million

Jean-Paul Gaultier Owner Puig Aims to Raise $1.35 Billion in Spain IPO

David Ellison Closes In on a Hollywood Prize: Paramount Global

What Chinese Outrage Over ‘3 Body Problem’ Says About China

Everyone Is Rich, No One Is Happy. The Pro Golf Drama Is Back

Can Minor League Baseball Survive Its Real Estate Problems?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 5th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Giving Up China Is Hard, Even for Argentina’s Anarcho-Capitalist

Yellen Chides China Over ‘Coercive’ Moves Against US Firms

China’s Young People Are Giving Up on Saving for Retirement

‘Reglobalization’ to the Rescue?

Rising Oil Prices Reignite Inflation Fears

Copper Miners Glimpse the Future They’ve Long Seen Coming

Gold Bulls Eye More Record Highs Despite Lightning Gains

Ireland’s Sovereign Investment Fund to Divest from Six Israeli Firms

The Sheikh Who Dominates One of the World’s Hottest Stock Markets

The Market May Have Finally Hit a Real Record, But It Could Be a Problem

US Jobs Report Is Set to Show a Slower Pace of Hiring, BE Says

Accounting Firms Rethink Their Ownership Structure

Taiwan Earthquake Raises Stakes for Solution to Chip Dominance

Foxconn Expects Second-Quarter Growth After Higher March Revenue

What Happened to Ships Bound for Baltimore When the Bridge Fell

Who Will Pay for the Baltimore Bridge Collapse?

Want to Invest in SpaceX or Stripe? There’s a Fund for That

AstraZeneca Says Key Lung Cancer Drug Improved Survival

J&J to Buy Shockwave for $13 Billion in Medical Device Play

Tesla Offers Steep Discounts on SUVs Piling Up in Inventory

Ford Slows Its Push Into Electric Vehicles

Tweens Obsessed With Skin Care Drive Brands to Say: Don’t Buy Our Stuff

Apparel Retailer Uniqlo Expands in Texas and California in New Store Push

Eclipse’s Path Is Also Leaving a Trail of High Hotel Prices

Four Seasons’ New Yacht Cruises Come With Record-High Price Tags

Standby Cruising: A New Option for Bargain Seekers

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 4, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 4th, 2024 at 7:01 am

France Pushes EU for Measures to Re-Balance Trade With China

Europe’s Spy Capital Weighs Crackdown on Intelligence Industry

Why Americans Are Concerned About the Budget Deficit — Again

The Fed Is Wrong About How Low Interest Rates Will Go

Immigration Helps US Jobs Grow Faster Than Powell’s Speed Limit

Winners of 2023 Bank Crisis Are Finding the New Spotlight Harsh

Tiger Woods’ Putter Choice Has Created an Asset Class

The Case Against Crowdfunding in the Work Chat

Goodbye Chairman, Hello Chair. The Gendered Title Is Fading Away

How Far $100 Goes at the Grocery Store After Five Years of Food Inflation

How to Revive a Burned Forest? Rebuild the Tree Supply Chain

Did One Guy Just Stop a Huge Cyberattack?

Fixing Boeing’s Broken Culture Starts With a New Plane

Airlines Desperate for Planes Are Paying Up for Older Models

Airbus’s Stratospheric Drone Business Is Open to IPO, Aalto HAPS Chief Says

NASA Picks 3 Companies to Help Astronauts Drive Around the Moon

Apple Explores Home Robotics as Potential ‘Next Big Thing’ After Car Fizzles

How Hertz’s Bet on Teslas Went Horribly Sideways

Few Stations and $200 to Fill Up: Life on California’s ‘Hydrogen Highway’

Amazon Sellers Plagued by Surge in Scam Returns

Disney CEO’s Headaches Abound Even After Decisive Proxy War Win

Nelson Peltz’s Disney Consolation Prize: A $300 Million Gain

A.L.S. Drug Relyvrio Will Be Taken Off the Market, Its Maker Says

Have the Brands Gone Too Far? Boston Marathoners Think So.

Brands Paid for Ads on Forbes.com. Some Ran on a Copycat Site Instead

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 3, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 3rd, 2024 at 7:03 am

China’s Service Economy Expands Further, Adding to Signs of Recovery

Milei Races Against Time to Ease Pain Unleashed by Shock Therapy

South Africa Tax Agency to Target ‘Professional Enablers’ of Organized Crime

Inflation Cools in Eurozone, Nearing Central Bank’s Target

Bank of England sets out conditions for ‘digital sandbox’

Canada’s RBC Struggles to Go Green While Financing Oil

Fed Blocks Tough Global Climate-Risk Rules for Wall Street Banks

Exxon’s $60 Billion Fight With Chevron Will Reshape Big Oil

LNG Demand Shift to Developing Nations Is Transforming the Market

US, EU Are Set to Miss a Critical Minerals Agreement This Week

Pimco Boosts Bond Bets That Fed Will Cut Less Than Global Peers

Chase Bank to Let Advertisers Target Customers Based on Spending Data

I’m an Economist. Don’t Worry. Be Happy.

Biden and Corporate America? It’s ‘Complicated.’

The Jobs Numbers Aren’t Adding Up. Immigration Helps Explain Why

10,000 Migrant Crossings a Day Upend the US Presidential Election

Donald Trump’s Lenders of Last Resort: Subprime Auto King and Online Bank

The World’s Richest Person 2024

AI Enthusiasm Hides Little VC Investor Excitement for US Startups

Alibaba Ramps Up Share Buybacks

Archer Sees 2025 Air-Taxi Debut, Setting Up Rivalry With Joby

Tesla Shares Tumble Toward Make-or-Break Level in Latest Wipeout

What Tesla’s Troubles Signal for the E.V. Revolution

Amazon to Remove ‘Just Walk Out’ Checkout Technology at U.S. Grocery Stores

Switching From iPhone to Android Is Easy. It’s the Aftermath That Stings

Disney Moving Closer to Win Over Trian With Vanguard Backing

How Bluey Became a $2 Billion Smash Hit—With an Uncertain Future

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

CWS Market Review – April 2, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 2nd, 2024 at 6:16 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Over the weekend, I posted what I thought was a harmless joke on Twitter (or X, or whatever we’re supposed to call it these days):

A great way to make passive income is to take $3 million and buy an 8% Treasury bond.

You'll make $20,000 a month just by doing nothing.

— Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) March 30, 2024

Most people who saw my tweet took it as an obvious joke. At last count, the tweet had over 10,000 “likes.” Indeed, it’s hard to parody some of the financial advice you see on TikTok (check out the brilliant @TikTokInvestors for a sample).

However, not everyone saw my tweet as humor. Of course, U.S. Treasuries yield nowhere close to 8%, and most people don’t have a handy three million dollars lying around. This is a reminder of Poe’s Law that any sarcasm, no matter how absurd, will be taken seriously by someone, and those someones were angry at me. Very angry.

You may wonder: how could our meek, humble, dutiful editor ever cause anyone any distress? Alas, it can happen.

My tweet even got a famous Community Note attached to it. They literally fact-checked a joke.

If I were the pedantic type, I’d point out that the Community Note is incorrect because a two-month treasury is a bill, not a bond. Happily, I’m not, so I won’t bother to mention it.

How to Invest $100,000

I’ve always believed that one should try to turn an unpleasant experience unto something positive. Therefore, in today’s issue, I want to show you how you can safely build an income-producing stock portfolio. Unfortunately, it won’t yield 8%, but it can do a good job.

Let’s start with these ten blue chip stocks. Most have long histories of increasing their dividends, and several of them also have above-market dividend yields.

AFLAC (AFL)
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)
Federal Realty (FRT)
Illinois Tool Works (ITW)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Middlesex Water (MSEX)
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)
Sysco (SYY)
Target (TGT)

The only exception is Microsoft. I added the tech giant for diversification even though it pays a small dividend.

The point I want to stress is that building a portfolio isn’t simply selecting names you like. I selected these ten because they make for a well-rounded portfolio. A portfolio is a cohesive whole. It all needs to work together. It’s like a baseball lineup. For example, we have retail, consumer, industrials, financials, utilities and REITs. Some will do well when others are lagging.

Also, bear in mind that this is a portfolio designed to produce income. It’s not going to be a fast grower. Go to crypto if you want excitement. This portfolio won’t be exciting, but it should hold up well in rapid bull markets.

My goal with this portfolio is to show you the key concepts in designing a portfolio with a specific goal in mind.

A good portfolio can be well diversified with as few as eight stocks, and it can be poorly diversified with 100 stocks.

Here’s a sample portfolio with our ten names:

I’ve listed each stock’s ticker symbol, total number of shares, Monday’s closing price, dividend per share, the value of each position, projected dividend income and the yield.

I used $100,000 as a sample, but feel free to multiply or divide these positions to satisfy your portfolio needs.

As you can see, this portfolio yields a healthy 2.66% per year, plus these are safe and secure stocks.

Next, I want to show you the power of dividend income. What if we had bought those ten stocks 20 years ago? Here’s how much you would be yielding on those stocks today if you had bought them in April 2004:

It’s odd to think that you would be yielding close to 10% with JNJ, but that’s what it would be based on a 20-year-old original purchase price.

Sure, 20 years is a long holding period, but the important point is that with investing, time is on your side.

Consider this thought exercise. Let’s say there’s a stock that currently yields 0.5%. Many income investors would quickly overlook it.

Let’s also say that this company grows its earnings and dividend consistently by 15% each year. If the valuation stays the same, then the dividend yield is always 0.5, but that’s masking how strong those dividends have been. In reality, the dividend income has strongly aided your returns. That’s why Einstein called compound interest, “the Eighth Wonder of the World.”

ISM Manufacturing Increases to 50.3

I should caution you that the stock market has looked a little weaker in recent days. There’s nothing to be alarmed about. After all, the market has had a strong run over the last five months, so some weariness is to be expected.

The S&P 500 was weak on Monday, and it was down over 1.1% today before it wandered higher this afternoon. So far, the bulls have been able to repulse any bear attacks, but I wonder how much longer that can last.

Tech stocks were especially weak today. The Nasdaq Composite lost nearly 1%. Tesla, which was already the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 during Q1, lost another 5% today.

Oil rallied to $85 per barrel while the yield on the 10-year Treasury got up to 4.36%. That’s the highest this year.

I wanted to mention yesterday’s impressive ISM Manufacturing for March. The reading increased from 47.8 to 50.3. This is important because any number above 50 means that the factory sector of the economy is expanding. The ISM had been contracting for 16 consecutive months.

I also like to look at the ISM because it’s out fairly quickly. Most economic stats take a while to compute, but the ISM report is usually out on the first working day of each month.

Tuesday’s report on job openings said that openings are largely unchanged at 8.8 million. That report was for February. Over the last year, job openings are down by 11%. Also on Tuesday, the Census Bureau said that construction spending fell by 0.3% in February. Private spending was unchanged, but public spending fell.

The next big test for the market comes this Friday with the March jobs report. Wall Street thinks the U.S. economy created 200,000 new jobs last month. I’ll be curious what the wage numbers are. The consensus on Wall Street is that average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% last month.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

Morning News: April 2, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 2nd, 2024 at 7:03 am

Russia’s Seaborne Crude Exports Surge to the Highest This Year

Oil Hits $85 for First Time Since October as Market Tightens

Shell Says Support for the Energy Shift Will Wane If Prices Soar

The $40 Billion Fund That’s Gambling With Europe’s Climate Goal

Poor Nations Are Writing a New Handbook for Getting Rich

Australia’s Central Bank Says Risks Around Economy a Little More Balanced

South Korea’s Inflation Tops 3% for Second Straight Month

Bond Comments by China’s Xi Hint at Possible Expansion of PBOC Toolkit

Is China’s Economy Finally Bottoming Out?

A Million Simulations, One Verdict for US Economy: Debt Danger Ahead

A Higher-for-Longer Good Friday From the Fed

Markets Are Back to Seeing Fewer Rate Cuts Than the Fed

UBS to Launch Buyback of Up to $2 Billion

Trump-and-Dump: Speculators Bet on Truth Social ‘Meme’ Stock

Apple Flirts With Support Levels After Worst Quarter in a Decade

Regulators Force Another Microsoft Split

Legal Battle Kicks Off to Minimize Baltimore Bridge Liabilities

Americans Are Buying Cheaper Cars

Xiaomi’s Unproven EV Is Proving a Hit With Investors

Tesla Cyberbeast Heads to Auction in First Test of Resale Value

China Developers’ Shares Suspended in Hong Kong for Missing Results Deadline

How One Tech Skeptic Decided A.I. Might Benefit the Middle Class

GE Completes Three-Way Split to Start Trading As Separate Companies

Verve Tumbles After Pausing Gene-Editing Trial on Safety Issues

You Can Bet on Caitlin Clark Making Threes. The N.C.A.A. Isn’t Happy

The Battle Lines in the War Over Disney’s Board

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: April 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2024 at 7:06 am

What 10 Years of Modi Rule Has Meant for India’s Economy

South Korean Export Growth Continued in March

China Industrial Upswing Is Latest Sign of Economic Recovery

Is Japan Finally Out of Its 30-Year Slump? Economists Are Optimistic That Japan Is Back—and They Say They Have the Data to Prove It

Bank of Japan Tankan Survey Shows Mixed Results Amid Rate-Hike Speculation

Fertility Startups in Japan Step In as Treatment Demand Soars

Japan’s Top Utility Pilots Ammonia Use to Reduce Coal Emissions

US Oil Suppliers Muscling Into OPEC+ Markets All Over the World

Gold Jumps to Record as Favored Fed Inflation Gauge Stokes Rally

Relentless US Credit Demand Seen Driving Second-Quarter Rally

The Dollar Is More Armored Division Than Currency

Texas Federal Judge Blocks Updated Fair Lending Rules

Biden’s Economic Plan for Latin America Begins to Take Shape

Young Voters Are More Concerned With the Economy. That’s Bad for Biden

39,000 Lost Jobs Undercut Biden’s Manufacturing Wins

Bridgewater CEO’s Turnaround Hinges on Wooing Restless Clients

Capital One-Discover Merger Deal Termination Fee Set at $1.38 Billion

Rakuten Group Aims to Integrate Bank, Fintech Units

Chip & Joanna Gaines Vivify the Dangers of Antitrust

OTIS: To Go Unnoticed

Baltimore Ship Accident Has East Coast Ports Scrambling to Absorb Cargo

Ships Have Become Supersized Since Baltimore Bridge Was Built

Tesla Has Wall Street Worried About How Many Cars It Just Sold

Auto Execs Call for New Measures as E.V. Wars Heat Up

French New Car Sales Decline 1.5% in March, PFA Association Says

You Don’t Need to Freak Out About Boeing Planes (but Boeing Sure Does)

Chile Telecom Operator WOM Files for Bankruptcy in the US

This Disney War Has Already Paid Off

A Look at Hasbro’s ‘Monopoly’ To Calm the Nerves of Monetarists

As Graffiti Moves From Eyesore to Amenity, Landlords Try to Cash In

How Street Art Is Gentrifying Neighborhoods

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 29th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Greece to Increase Minimum Wage by €50 a Month from April 1

Japan FX Chief Calls Yen’s Slump Unusual, Vows to Act if Needed

Korean Banks Say to Compensate Investors for China-Linked Notes

Stock Market Surges to Start the Year: 22 Record Highs in 3 Months

Bankman-Fried Is Sentenced to 25 Years in Prison Over FTX Collapse

Sam Bankman-Fried’s Sentence Is a Warning to Crypto

Robinhood’s Credit Card Offers 3% Cash Back. Can It Last?

Those Billion-Dollar Lottery ‘Jackpots’ Aren’t Even Half That Big

Giant Merger Deals Stage a Comeback

Huawei Stages Comeback With Annual Net Profit More Than Doubling

Apple Plans New iPad Pro for May as Production Ramps Up Overseas

How the Israel-Hamas War Has Roiled TikTok Internally

San Francisco’s ‘Twitter Menace’ or True Believer? He Might Be Both

Syngenta Pulls China IPO Application After Three-Year Wait

Viavi Says Its Spirent Bid Has Certain Value Amid Bidding War

US Approves $60 Million in Urgent Funds for Baltimore Bridge

Auto Industry Expects Minimal Disruption From Port Shutdown

Plans for World’s Fastest Train Service Delayed as Japan Ditches 2027 Target

Xiaomi Prices First EV Competitively, Seeks Pole Position in Crowded Market

Tesla’s Terrible Quarter Catches Some Analysts Asleep at the Wheel

Tesla Dives Into Advertising After Years of Resistance

Renault to Build Electric Vans at Plant in Northern France

Young Indians More Likely to Be Jobless If They’re Educated

Harvard Applications Drop 5% After Tumultuous Year on Campus

Building Diversity When Affirmative Action Is Banned

Can Reed Hastings Disrupt Skiing?

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 28, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 28th, 2024 at 7:06 am

China Property Crisis Is Rippling Through Its Biggest Banks

Russia Sends Cuba First Oil in a Year to Ease Blackouts and Unrest

Dalio Says China Must Fix Debt Problems or Face ‘Lost Decade’

As Relations Thaw, China Lifts Tariffs on Australian Wine

BOJ Summary Hints at Cautious Approach to Further Rate Increases

UK Confirmed in Recession at End of 2023

Fed Hawks Put the Dollar on Track for Best Quarter Since 2022

Fed’s Waller Says No Rush to Cut Interest Rates

Biden Is Breaking Campaign Rule No. 1. And It Just Might Work

Ad Forecaster Raises 2024 Prediction Amid Improving Economic Outlook

UBS Makes Ermotti Europe’s Best-Paid Bank Boss with $16 Million Package

UBS Banker’s Frustration Exposes Cracks in World of Climate Finance

SBF Prison Time Hangs on Persuading Judge He Is No Bernie Madoff

Harvey Schwartz Spends First Year at Carlyle Tending Old Wounds

The Dali Is a Big Ship. But Not the Biggest

Baltimore Bridge May Trigger Historic Marine Loss, Says Lloyd’s of London

4 Takeaways About Boeing’s Quality Problems

‘Shortcuts Everywhere’: How Boeing Favored Speed Over Quality

EVs Are Splitting the Auto World Into Two: Made in China, or Not

Tesla’s $25,000 Car Means Tossing Out the 100-Year-Old Assembly Line

Mercedes Is Liable for Emissions Cheating Device, Court Rules

Can a Legally Binding Treaty Fix the World’s Plastic Problem?

Alibaba’s Plan to Split Is Being Replaced by Greater Focus on Its Core

Home Depot Buys Roofing Distributor in Deal Valued at $18 Billion Including Debt

The Cautionary Tale of Wirecutter and the Internet’s Favorite Wok

‘Winners and Losers’ as $20 Fast-Food Wage Nears in California

Walgreens Suffers $6 Billion Loss As VillageMD Clinic Investment Sours

Big Tobacco Is Now Under the Zynfluence

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Morning News: March 27, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2024 at 6:57 am

American Business Stalls in China

Xi Says US CEOs Should Invest in China, Economy Hasn’t Peaked

Japan Steps Closer to Intervention as Yen Hits Lowest Since 1990

The Real Bridge Too Far Is Financing

Rising Minimum Wage Risks Stoking Inflation, Says CBI Chief

In a Passive World, These Stockpickers Are Thriving

Nvidia Catapults EM Stock Picker to Top Ranking and Irks Rivals

UBS Sells $8 Billion of Credit Suisse Assets to Apollo

Visa and Mastercard Agree to Cap Their Swipe Fees in Settlement

In US Antitrust War, Bet on Brandeis Not Bork

Using Your Premium Credit Card May Cost More After Visa-Mastercard Deal

Robinhood Ventures Further Beyond Trading with New Credit Card

Why BlackRock’s C.E.O. Wants to Rethink Retirement

Gates-Backed Startup Hits Milestone, Races Ahead on Green Steel

The U.S. Investors Caught in the Scrum Over TikTok

The U.S.’s Forced Sale of TikTok Is the Stuff of Third World Nations

Tesla’s Hunt for Self-Driving Revenue

A Pivot to China Saved Elon Musk. It Also Binds Him to Beijing

Chinese Train Maker CRRC Drops Bid for $665 Million Bulgarian Contract

Gamestop Set to Fall Most in Nine Months After Revenue Plunges

Nestle to Spend $132 Million to Improve Supplier Sustainability in East and Southern Africa

How Michael Rubin Ended Up Holding All the Cards

H&M Outlook on Track as Sales Pick Up

NBC Drops Former RNC Chief Ronna McDaniel Amid Backlash

Trump’s Media Company Ticker Leads to Fleeting Windfall

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.