CWS Market Review – April 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 15th, 2025 at 6:11 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The stock market has seriously chilled out over the last few days. In fact, we’re not that far (-2.3%) from where the market was on March 13, after the S&P 500’s first leg downward.

If some Rumpelstiltskin investor had fallen asleep one month ago and had awoken today, they’d probably conclude that this has been an uneventful four weeks.

We aren’t seeing the big 3%, 5% or even 10% days that we saw not too long ago. For the last two days, the S&P 500 has closed up or down by less than 1%, and today’s change (-0.17%) is the smallest daily move in three weeks.

I like to track the VIX (^VIX) which is the volatility index. Some investors like to call it the “Fear Index,” which is an apt name. Last week, the VIX jumped from 30 to 60. That’s a huge increase, but earlier today, the VIX fell back to 28.

Are we in the clear? Not a chance. Or rather, even if we are, it’s safest to act as if we’re not. The problem for investors is that the market is still beholden to tariff politics. That means that any intemperate threat coming from the White House can upend the market. Morgan Stanley said to expect to be fooled “many more times” regarding tariffs. I think that’s right.

The simple fact is that the S&P 500 is still below its 200-day moving average. Historically, that’s been a trouble area for the market. The index needs to rally more than 6% from here to be above its 200-DMA.

The good news is that we now have other events to share the headlines with the tariff news. The most prominent is that Q1 earnings season is underway and that’s taken some of the spotlight off of tariff politics.

Remember When the Market Doubled in 18 Months?

One of the rules of thumb on Wall Street is that dramatic markets tend to be symmetrical. That’s a fancy way of saying that sharp drops are often followed by sharp recoveries, and long, drawn-out bears are followed by long, drawn-out bulls.

A good example of this came during the Covid bear in 2020. The stock market peaked on February 19. Interestingly, it peaked on the same day this year.

This was one of the fastest drops in Wall Street history. Thirty-three days later, the S&P 500 had shed 33%. But the bulls came roaring back (thanks to a lot of help from Uncle Sam).

By June 8, the market had soared 44% off its low, and by August, the S&P 500 closed at a new record high. It took less than six months to erase one of the most brutal bear markets on record. In fact, it didn’t stop there. It took 18 months for the S&P 500 to double from its low.

Of course, this behavior is only a rule of thumb. We know well that the market gods love to play with our emotions. What I’ve noticed is that when the market is at its low, no one thinks it is. Instead, everyone’s waiting for the next downward move which never comes. As Peter Lynch said, “I’m always fully invested. It’s a great feeling to be caught with your pants up.”

An Early Look at Q1 Earnings

Let’s take an early look at how the Q1 earnings season is playing out. So far, 72.4% of the companies that have reported have beaten their earnings estimates, 69% have topped their revenue estimates. A total of 55.2% have beaten on both.

The S&P 500 is currently tracking at 6.76% earnings growth for Q1. That’s down from 7.03% from one month ago. The good news is that banks are doing a little better than we expected. Expected earnings for financials have been bumped up to 2.30% from 0.87% last month. The weak spot is energy. Last month, earnings for energy sector entities were expected to be down by 16.55%. Now it’s looking like energy’s earnings will be down by 18.87%.

I also noticed that in the earnings calls, several CEOs had bleak outlooks on the economy. A recent poll of more than 300 CEOS found that 62% see a recession coming within the next six months. That’s up from 48% in March.

It’s no secret what CEOs are concerned with. Three-fourths of them said the tariffs will hurt their businesses this year.

Larry Finke, the head honcho over at BlackRock (BLK) said that we’re very close to a recession, “if not in a recession now.” Fink said, “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty.”

BlackRock is one of the behemoths of Wall Street. The firm currently has $11.58 trillion in assets under management. On Friday, BlackRock said it made $11.30 per share for Q1. That beat Wall Street’s consensus of $10.14 per share. The problem was revenue. BlackRock had $5.28 billion in revenue which was $60 million short of Wall Street’s consensus.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a very good quarter. For Q1, the big bank made $14.12 per share compared with estimates of $12.35 per share. That’s an increase of 15% over last year. Revenue rose 6% to $15.06 billion. That topped estimates by $250 million.

Bank of America (BAC) also posted good results. For Q1, BAC made 90 cents per share. That was eight cents more than estimates. Revenue was $27.51 billion. Expectations were for $26.99 billion. Bank of America said its net interest income was helped by lower deposit costs and higher-yielding investments.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q1 earnings of $4.91 per share on revenue of $46.01 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $4.61 per share on revenues of $44.11 billion.

The big winner was equities trading. JPM’s revenue there jumped 48% to $3.8 billion. That beat expectations by $560 million.

CEO Jamie Dimon was optimistic for his bank, but like the other CEOs, he was far more cautious on the overall economy. Dimon said, “The economy is facing considerable turbulence (including geopolitics), with the potential positives of tax reform and deregulation and the potential negatives of tariffs and ‘trade wars,’ ongoing sticky inflation, high fiscal deficits and still rather high asset prices and volatility.”

Morgan Stanley (MS) said that its Q1 earnings rose 26% to $2.60 per share for Q1. That beat the Street by 40 cents per share. Equity trading soared 45% to $4.13 billion. That was $840 million more than expected.

Earlier today, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) said it made $2.77 per share for Q1. That was 17 cents more than estimates. JNJ’s sales rose 2.4% to $21.89 billion. That beat estimates of $21.58 billion.

The company increased its guidance. JNJ now sees 2025 sales ranging between $91 billion and $91.8 billion. The company sees earnings coming in between $10.50 and $10.70 per share.

JNJ also hiked its quarterly dividend from $1.24 to $1.30 per share. The new dividend is payable on June 10, with a record date of May 27. This is the 63rd year in a row that JNJ has increased its dividend. That’s one of the longest such streaks on Wall Street.

There are few things to look out for this week. Tomorrow morning, Abbott Labs (ABT) will report its Q1 earnings. This will be our first Buy List stock to report. The stock is up close to 12% this year.

For this year, Abbott sees its earnings ranging between $5.05 and $5.25 per share. For Q1, Abbott sees earnings between $1.05 and $1.09 per share. Wall Street has split the difference and expects $1.07 per share.

Tomorrow we’ll also get reports on retail sales and industrial production, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago.

The Fed doesn’t meet again for another three weeks, and it’s doubtful they’ll make a move at their May meeting. It will be interesting to hear what Powell has to say, especially about tariffs.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 15th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Oil Goes From Bad to Worse in First Takes on 2026

Trump Throws Another Hail Mary

Trump’s Give-and-Take Tariff Strategy

Trump’s Dilemma: A Trade War That Threatens Every Other Negotiation With China

China’s Port Cargos Start to Slow as Tariff Tensions Escalate

China’s Halt of Critical Minerals Poses Risk for U.S. Military Programs

China Orders Boeing Jet Delivery Halt as Trade War Expands

China’s Murky Bankruptcies Expose Hazards for Foreign Investors

Trump’s Trade War With China Could Be Good for India. But Is It Ready?

Japan Economy Minister Urges ‘Win-Win’ Solutions Ahead of U.S. Trade Talks

German Economic Sentiment Collapses on Trump’s Tariff Chaos

Will Policy Chaos Trigger a Flight From the Dollar?

The Dollar Keeps Falling as Its ‘Safe Haven’ Status Is Questioned

Bitcoin’s Response to Tariffs Says a Lot About the Dollar

Bank of America Profit Boosted by Trading Gains, Interest Income

Bessent Says ‘Everything’s On the Table’ for Taxes on Wealthiest

Harvard’s Vow to Resist Trump Sets Up $9 Billion Funding Fight

Inside Trump’s Plan to Halt Hundreds of Regulations

Apartment Developers Who Overbuilt Luck Out With Tariffs

US Travel Industry Braces for Impact of Foreign-Visitor Slide

The Next TikTok Shutdown Is Likely to Be Longer

Japan’s NTT Has Become an Under-the-Radar AI Powerhouse

AI to Prop Up Fossil Fuels and Slow Emissions Decline, BNEF Says

Ericsson Posts Rise in North American Network Spending Ahead of Tariffs

GM’s Mary Barra Has to Make a $35 Billion EV Bet Work in Trump’s America

American Airlines to Provide Free Wi-Fi, Joining Race to Court Connected Travelers

J&J Increases Outlook After Beating 1Q Expectations

Albertsons’ Profit Outlook Trails Estimates, Stock Declines

Publicis Confirms Outlook After Organic Growth Beats Expectations

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Morning News: April 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 14th, 2025 at 7:01 am

EU Top Diplomat Hails Progress in Finding Ammunition for Ukraine

The Former C.I.A. Officer Capitalizing on Europe’s Military Spending Boom

China’s Trade War Leverage Over US Becomes Clearer

A Devastating Trade Spat With China Shows Few Signs of Abating

China Halts Critical Exports as Trade War Intensifies

At China’s Wholesale Hub, U.S. Orders Have Suddenly Halted. One Example: Socks.

Why Wouldn’t China Weaponize Its $760 Billion Treasury Holdings?

Italian Tycoon Eclipses BlackRock in Li Ka-shing’s Port Deal

Trump’s Tariffs Leave No Safe Harbor for American Importers

Trump Has Added Risk to the Surest Bet in Global Finance

Weak Dollar Wishes Are Scary When Granted

Stock Market’s Extreme Moves Portend Lasting Trouble for Traders

Volcker’s Lessons for Restoring Dented US Credibility

The Treasury Secretary Is Wrong About How Most Retirees See the Stock Market

Tether Emerges as Major Crypto Lender Since Collapse of Sector

Goldman’s Stock Traders Ride Volatile Markets to Record Quarter

Citigroup Turns Cold on US Equities, Joining Wall Street Peers

Brookfield Has Billions Riding on a Private Equity Revival in the Middle East

Most CEOs Were Doubting Their Boards Even Before Trump’s Tariff Turmoil, Survey Finds

Elon Musk and the Dangerous Myth of Omnigenius

Cuban Exiles Are Losing Their Privileged Migration Status Under Trump

This Company’s Surveillance Tech Makes Immigrants ‘Easy Pickings’ for Trump

Trump Warns Tariffs Coming for Electronics After Reprieve

Tim Cook’s ‘Long Arc of Time’ Prepared Apple for the Trade War

Intel Close to Unveiling Deal to Sell Altera to Silver Lake

Trump Wants to Reverse Coal’s Long Decline. It Won’t be Easy.

The New Technologies Buoying Efforts to Cut Ship Emissions

RFK Jr. Needs to Explain Himself

Pfizer Abandons Obesity Pill After Liver Injury in Setback

DaVita Says Ransomware Attack Affecting Some Operations

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Morning News: April 11, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 11th, 2025 at 7:02 am

Why Should Iran Believe Anything the US Threatens or Promises?

China Raises Tariffs on U.S. Imports to 125%, Calling Trump’s Policies a ‘Joke’

The U.S. and China Are Going to Economic War—and Everyone Will Suffer

How This Trade War Is Different From All Other Trade Wars

The ‘China Shock’ Offers a Lesson. It Isn’t the One Trump Has Learned.

German Finance Chief Sees Chance for Stronger Euro Role in Trade

Gold Price Forecasts Raised as Rally Continues

Treasuries Are Trading Like Risky Assets in Warning to Trump

Markets Worry About Finding an Exit From Trump’s Trade Fight

Undaunted Retail Investors Bruised by S&P 500’s Big Reversal

Warren Urges S.E.C. to Investigate Trading Around Trump’s Tariff Pause

Trump Puts Wall Street Leaders in Tight Spot

JPMorgan’s Stock Traders Notch Record Revenue on Market Chaos

Wells Fargo Beats Profit Estimates but CEO Warns Tariffs Could Slow Growth

Morgan Stanley’s Profit Beats on Strength in Wealth, Equity Trading Units

BlackRock Net Income Falls, Assets Hit Record $11.6 Trillion

Hedge Fund Sculptor Joins Rush of Financial Firms in Abu Dhabi

CEOs Just Got a Lesson In How to Influence the White House

Relief at a Trade Hub on the Southern Border, but No End to Its Unease

Tariff Turmoil Will Continue Unless Congress Steps In

A Look at Revenue Sources to Pay for US Tax Cuts

Tesla Stops Taking Orders in China for Models Imported From the US

Europe’s Offshore Wind Industry Needs a Lifeline

Tariff Uncertainty Is Punishing California Almond Growers

California Can Fend Off Trump’s Climate Attack. Cities Might Not

What’s Wrong With Apple?

GSK CEO Says She’s Already Tariff-Proofing Britain’s Global Drugmaker

LG and Samsung Are Pioneering the Netflix Model for Home Appliances

Who Wants to Run Vanity Fair? Everyone? Anyone?

Twinkies’ New Owner Courts a Novel Group of Snackers: Stoners

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Morning News: April 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 10th, 2025 at 7:05 am

RBA Governor Says It’s Too Early to Set New Rates Course

Philippine Central Bank Resumes Rate Cuts

German Economic Institutes Slash 2025 Growth Forecast as Tariffs Bite

Trump Reverses Course on Global Tariffs, Announcing 90-Day Pause

Trump Tariff Concerns Still Weigh on Dollar, US Futures

EU to Halt Counter-Tariffs After Trump Sets 90-Day Pause

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?

Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services

Trump’s Encouragement of Stock Investors Draws Scrutiny

From ‘Be Cool!’ to ‘Getting Yippy’: Inside Trump’s Reversal on Tariffs

Bully or Chicken — Playing Trump With Game Theory

This US Import Rule Shows How Global Trade Went Wrong

Sell-Off in U.S. Bonds and Dollar Raises Questions About ‘Safe Haven’ Status

Can Britain Be a ‘Sensible, Stable’ Haven in Trade War? Some See Potential.

Fed Leans Against Inflation and Away From Preemptive Rate Cuts

How to ‘Recession-Proof’ Your Portfolio During Trump Tariffs, According to Experts

How Financial Tech and Outsourced Banking Made Saving Risky Again

China to Curb Imports of U.S. Films in Response to Trump Tariffs

U.S. and China Headed for ‘Monumental’ Split, Putting World Economy on Edge

What to Know About the Latest China Tariffs and What They Mean for Prices

China Says Its Own Consumers Will Save the Day. But They’re Not Buying.

More Americans Are Making Only Minimum Payments on Credit Cards

House Delays Vote on Tax-Cut, Debt Limit Plan Amid Deficit Spat

US Defense Is Collateral Damage in the Trade War

Copper Industry Takes Sanguine View on Tariffs at Chile Summit

Tesla Supplier STMicroelectronics Backs CEO After Italy Criticizes Management Amid Board Feud

BMW Deliveries Slip on China Weakness, Despite Strong Quarter in Europe and U.S.

Chicago Hot Dog Eatery Portillo’s Slims Down Menus to Expand Nationally

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Morning News: April 9, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 9th, 2025 at 7:03 am

India’s Millions of New Investors Are Reeling From Tariff Turmoil

China Condemns American ‘Protectionism’

Stocks Tumble as China Retaliates With 84% Tariff on US Goods

European Officials to Vote Today on First Retaliatory Tariffs

ECB Should Cut Key Rate as Euro Stages Surprise Rally, Villeroy Says

Tectonic Shifts in Global Trade Represent New Risk, Says Russian Central Bank

One of America’s Biggest Ports Fears a Cargo Slump Is Next

Trump Says Pharmaceutical Tariffs Coming ‘Very Shortly’

India’s Drug Makers Shudder as Trump Again Threatens Tariffs

Dalio Sees Once-a-Lifetime Collapse in Economic, Political Order

104% Is Doubling Down on Dumb

Inflation Is a Mind Game, Too

Treasuries ‘Fire Sale’ Sends Long-Term Yields Soaring Worldwide

U.S. Bond Sell-Off is Another Worrisome Echo of the Liz Truss Fiasco

A Severe Test Lies Ahead for the Federal Reserve

Shadow Banks Are Too Big to Stay in the Shadows

Big Banks’ Record Trading Streak Overshadowed by Tariff Upheaval

Trump Tariffs Threaten Spread of Big Batteries on the Power Grid

Five Takeaways From Trump’s Plan to Rescue Coal

How Trump Is Putting Law Firms in a No-Win Situation

A $12,800 Tariff Hit Has Some Homebuilders Eyeing Side Gigs

Apple Supplier Luxshare to Maintain Vietnam Production Hub to Support U.S. Market

Delta Pulls Outlook as Trump’s Trade War Squeezes Air Travel

Airlines’ Dreams of a Banner Year Are Over

Walmart Maintains Sales Forecast Despite Tariff Pressure

Volkswagen Vehicle Deliveries Rise Despite China Weakness

Gold Rolexes See Sharp Rise in Demand as Metal Hits Records

The Strange Case of an Hermès Heir, an Emir and a Deal Gone Wrong

Harry’s Razor Brand Seeks to Build a Consumer Goods Empire

Can Hobby Lobby, With Its Conservative Principles, Win Over New York?

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CWS Market Review – April 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 8th, 2025 at 6:32 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

This has been the most raucous week on Wall Street since the Covid panic from five years ago. President Trump’s tariff policies have spooked investors all over the world. In two days last week, Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 lost a combined 10.5%. If that loss had happened in one day instead of two, it would rank as the fourth worst loss of all time.

On Monday, the stock market had an especially volatile morning. In just eight minutes, the S&P 500 rallied 5.66%. It then promptly lost 4.37% over the next seven minutes. We’re talking about several trillion dollars magically appearing and disappearing during less time than a lunchbreak.

What happened? Well, that’s a good question. It appears that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, was being interview on Fox News. During the interview he was asked if the president was considering a 90-day pause for his tariff policies. Hassett clearly gave a non-committal answer (“the president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.”)

Somehow someone on Twitter took that for a yes and tweeted it out. That was from a small account (less than 1,000 followers), but soon a much larger account known as “Walter Bloomberg” reposted it, and suddenly, this was taken as serious news on Wall Street.

I should add that Walter Bloomberg is not connected with Bloomberg, the financial news service. His tweet came out at 10:11 am and by 10:12 am, CNN reported that cheers erupted on the floor of the NYSE. I guess that’s a good barometer of how unpopular the tariffs are on Wall Street.

At CNBC, the anchors were completely baffled by the market’s surge and by 10:15 am, they were reporting on the news. Soon Reuters was referencing CNBC but they were only going on what Twitter was saying. Soon people were referencing people who were referencing people who were just making things up.

Here’s a minute-by-minute chart of the last five days for the S&P 500. You can really see how volatile Monday was:

The White House denied the reports and Walter Bloomberg deleted his tweet, but the damage was already done. This is a good reminder than Wall Street is a place where rumors and fake news can lead to very real panics. Financial markets are made up of normal people and they can be as volatile as anybody, if not more so, especially in the short run. It took some time yesterday for traders to realize they had been duped.

Between yesterday’s high and low, the Dow swung by nearly 2,600 points. Trading volume on Monday reached 29 billion shares which is an all-time record. The previous record was 26.4 billion shares which came on Friday.

Before the ruckus started, Wall Street was having a terrible day on Monday. At one point, shortly after yesterday’s open, the S&P 500 was trading down more than 4.7%. The market was on pace for its third awful day in a row. Measuring from the intra-day peak in February to Monday’s low, the S&P 500 lost 21.35%, making this an official bear market.

By no means will I suggest that the fear has subsided. Any big rally that starts below the 200-day moving average is considered guilty until it can prove its innocence.

This morning’s rally didn’t last either. The S&P 500 rallied by 4% then fell by 6%. Today was the fourth day in a row that the S&P 500 had a trading range of more than 5%. The S&P 500 finished the day at its lowest closing level since February 21, 2024.

Investors are still very concerned about the tariffs, and the White House is showing little signs of reversing course. The duty against China will be 104%. The tariffs are due to kick in at midnight tonight. These will be our highest tariffs since 1909; yes, even higher than Smoot-Hawley.

Every nation in the world will have a minimum 10% tariff plus half of their trade deficit. Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the two small French islands off the coast of Canada, now face 50% tariffs even though they exported a grand total of $3.4 million to us in 2023.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that 70 countries have approached the U.S. for tariff negotiations. There are hopes that a deal—any deal—can soon be reached, but there’s no concrete evidence that any deal is coming soon.

Name-calling has even broken out between Peter Navarro, a senior counselor to the president, and Elon Musk, the head of DOGE. Navarro said that Musk doesn’t make cars, he assembles them. In response, Musk called Navarro a “moron,” and “dumber than a sack of bricks.”

One of the points I’ve made about investing is that for the vast majority of the time, the stock market is pretty boring. Markets tend to go up slowly but consistently. Then, for a very brief period, markets throw a temper tantrum. In a very short time, stocks fall fast and hard.

We’re in such a period right now. In fact, we could be behind it already, but we can’t say for certain until after the fact. My guess is that we’re not done quite done yet. Today’s rally is nice, but I won’t fully trust this market until we’re well clear of the 200-day moving average.

The Jobs Market Is Still Healthy

Lately on Wall Street, there’s been a lot of talk about “hard” versus “soft” economic reports. By soft, we mean emotion-based reports like consumer confidence, economic surveys or even the stock market. By hard, we mean concrete data like jobs or industrial production. The soft reports have been quite weak, but the hard data is still holding firm.

I suspect that we’ll soon see some weakness in the hard reports. For example, I’ve always been a believer that the stock market plays a role in consumer spending. Happy stocks make for happy shoppers. When the Dow drops a few thousand points, folks get leery about buying big-ticket items.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report, a very hard data report, and it was mostly a good report. Bear in mind that this was before the stock market started to get nervous.

Last month, the U.S. economy added 228,000 net new jobs. Wall Street had been expecting a gain of 140,000. The unemployment rate ticked higher from 4.1% to 4.2%. I looked at the decimals and found that the real increase was only 0.013%.

The president posted on Truth Social, “GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED. IT’S ALREADY WORKING. HANG TOUGH, WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”

The jobs gain for January was revised down 14,000 to 111,000. February was revised lower by 34,000 to 117,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% last month. That was in line with the consensus.

For March, health care was the leading growth area, consistent with prior months. The industry added 54,000 jobs, almost exactly in line with its 12-month average. Other growth areas included social assistance and retail, which both added 24,000, while transportation and warehousing showed a 23,000 increase.

Federal government positions declined by just 4,000, despite the Elon Musk-led efforts, through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, to pare the federal workforce. However, the BLS noted that workers on severance or paid leave are counted as employed. A report Thursday from consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated that DOGE-related layoffs have totaled more than 275,000 so far.

The U-6 rate, which is a broader reading of unemployment, fell to 7.9%. Last month, full-time workers increased by 459,000, while part-timers fell by 44,000.

Tomorrow, the Fed will release the minutes from its most recent meeting. I’ll be curious to see how much they discussed the tariffs. On Thursday, we’ll get the CPI report for March. The last report showed that core inflation fell to a four-year low. Traders are closely divided on the need for two 0.25% Fed rate cuts coming by June. Or possibly, they see one 0.5% rate cut.

Get ready because Friday will also be the unofficial kickoff of Q1 earnings season. Several big banks and financial institutions such as JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and BlackRock are due to report. Expect the market to remain volatile.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: April 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 8th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Trump’s Tariffs and China Collide to Shock the $115 Trillion Global Economy

China Vows ‘Fight to the End’ on Tariffs as It Props Up Markets

China Urges Shein to Halt Supply-Chain Shift After Tariffs

EU Chief and Chinese Premier Discuss Potential Oversupply of Goods

Panama Casts Doubt on BlackRock Canal Ports Deal Touted by Trump

Milei Tries Erasing Argentina’s History to Lure Foreign Investment

How Mexico Emerged From Tariff Broadside With an Edge Over Asia

Canada’s Economy Is Starting to Crack Under Trade-War Pressure

Market Chaos Could Inflict Its Own Economic Damage

US Stock Futures Rise as Dip Buyers Emerge After Selloff

US Bonds Stabilize After Choppiest Day of Trading in Five Years

The World Suddenly Has a Plausible Alternative to US Treasuries

Traders Bet ‘Insane’ Currency Volatility Is Here to Stay

Levin: Shaking Faith in US Safe Havens Is a Dangerous Gamble

El-Erian: The Fed Must Resist Repeating Past Mistakes

Felsted: This Market Slide Won’t End Until Companies Come Clean

CEOs Break Silence on Trump Trade War

Billionaires Seek to Take Companies Private Amid Market Mayhem

Auto Manufacturers Urge Leaders on Both Sides of Atlantic to Lower Tariffs

Continental Mulls Sale of ContiTech Business

BYD Guides for Strong Earnings in Move to Shore Up Market Confidence

American Whiskey Braces for Another Trump Trade War

Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them

Apple’s Historic Selloff Has Bulls Balking From Tariff Risks

Why a Plane-Size Machine Could Foil a Race to Build Gas Power Plants

Microsoft’s Expensive Data Center Expansion Hits a Roadblock

Walgreens Tops Profit Estimates as Health-Care Unit Improves

Global Art Sales Fell by 12% Last Year, Report Says

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Morning News: April 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 7th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Global Stocks Plunge, Extending Rout Caused by Trump’s Tariffs

After a Blowout Week, Wall Street Decision Makers Brace for More Chaos

Trump, Unbowed, Is Enacting Change on Scale Rarely Seen Before

Trump Says Tariffs Are Reciprocal. They Aren’t.

Trump Created an Economic Sinkhole. He Doesn’t Care

Wall Street Thought Trump Was One of Them. Wrong!

Jamie Dimon Warns Tariffs Will Raise Prices, Slow Growth

Eurozone Investor Sentiment Nosedives as Market Rout Intensifies

European Aerospace, Defense Stocks Plunge Amid Global Recession Woes

German Industrial Production Declines as Sector Braces for Tariffs

Europe Is Ready to Make Its First Countermove to Trump Tariffs

For This Frozen Fries Company, Trade Wars Are an Existential Crisis

Goldman Sachs Raises Odds of US Recession to 45%, Second Hike in a Week

Stagflation Is Now America’s Best-Case Scenario

How Global Trade Could Survive Trump’s Tariffs

China Tries to Downplay the Trade War’s Effects on Its Economy

China Discusses Accelerating Stimulus to Counter Trump Tariffs

‘The Tsunami Is Coming’: China’s Global Exports Are Just Getting Started

Tariffs Are Dragging Down Even Companies Without US Exports

Trump’s Trade War Raises Bar for Fed Rate Cuts

Trump Leaves Emerging Market Central Banks with No Clean Choices

Deutsche Bank Raises Average Gold Price Forecasts for 2025 and 2026

Demand for Dollars from Non-U.S Investors Surges as Stocks Crumble

Woodside to Sell 40% Stake in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure to Stonepeak

Shell Lowers Gas Production Guidance After Unplanned Maintenance Hit Volumes

LG Electronics Expects Lower Quarterly Operating Profit

Google AI Search Shift Leaves Website Makers Feeling ‘Betrayed’

What Luxury Sells in a Trade War? Not the Bold Designs Brands Were Banking On

How X Is Benefiting as Musk Advises Trump

Tesla Shares Plunge Below Lutnick’s ‘Never This Cheap’ Level

Gulf Coast Shrimpers See Hope in Trump’s Tariffs

How Contracting Work Became a Race to the Bottom

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Morning News: April 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 4th, 2025 at 7:01 am

German Factory Orders Stagnated in February Despite Hints of Frontloading

European Bank Stocks Extend Losses From Tariff Fallout

Trump’s Threats and Tariffs Are a Global ‘Kill Switch’

A Market-Rattling Attempt to Make the American Economy Trump Always Wanted

To Trump, U.S. Economy Is a ‘Sick Patient’ and Tariffs Are the Cure

Americans Rush to Buy TVs, Soy Sauce, Lululemon Workout Gear

Trump’s Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates With 34% Tariffs

Trump Blocked America’s Front Door to China. Now He’s Closing Back Doors.

Will Trump’s Tariffs Drive Europe Into China’s Arms, or Into a Fight?

The Rest of the World Is Bracing for a Flood of Cheap Chinese Goods

Tariffs Drive Another Market Meltdown

That Smashing Sound Is Piggy Banks Around the World

After Tariff Shock, Trump May Weaponise Finance Against Allies

Traders Boost Bets on Fed Cuts as Jobs Data Adds to Market Angst

How to Protect Your Retirement Savings Now as Markets Plunge

One of the Fed’s Top Recession Alarms Sends 2008-Style Signal

Finance Needs to Be Prepared for the Unexpected

More People Are Bringing Lunch to Work. That’s a Bad Economic Indicator.

Where Will Consumers Go?

Billionaires Lose Combined $208 Billion in One Day From Trump Tariffs

Businesses Pounce as GOP Weighs Limiting Corporate SALT Break

Oil Slides to Four-Year Low on Hit From Tariffs and OPEC Supply

Trump’s Threatened Tariff on Buyers of Venezuelan Oil Could Squeeze China

Brookfield Buys Oil-Pipeline Firm Colonial Enterprises for $9 Billion

BP Chairman Helge Lund to Step Down Amid Push for Changes at Oil Major

E.U. Prepares Major Penalties Against Elon Musk’s X

Apple Plunges 9%, Leading a Tech Sell-Off

Mexican Minister Says Investment in Volvo Factory to Rise

Tesla Estimates Cut Further on ‘Unprecedented Brand Damage’

Hershey Strikes $750 Million Deal for LesserEvil Popcorn Brand

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