The Stock Market Is At an All-Time High
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 6:49 pm

It took us more than five years, but the broadest measure of the U.S. stock market finally closed at an all-time high today. The Wilshire 5000 finished the day at 15,878.72. The previous high close came on October 9, 2007 at 15,806.69.

Meanwhile, the more popular S&P 500 still needs to gain another 4.13% before it breaks its all-time high from 62 months ago. The reason for the difference between the two indexes is that small-cap stocks have done much better than large-caps.

Since the S&P 500 is limited to the very largest stocks on Wall Street, it tends to lag when mega-caps are out of favor. Other small-cap indexes like the Russell 2000, the S&P 600 Small-Cap and S&P 400 Mid-Cap have already made all-time highs.

Since the previous high, dividends have added 11.4% to the Wilshire’s total return while inflation has totaled 9.9%.

Ackman Vs Icahn
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 2:11 pm

CNBC had a surreal moment today when billionaires Carl Icahn and Bill Ackman traded insults.

The Market Is Going for Eight in a Row
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 10:33 am

The S&P 500 is looking to close higher for the eighth day in a row. That would be the longest winning streak in more than eight years. The index has been as high as 1,502.26. Yesterday’s intra-day high was 1,502.27.

I noticed that Microsoft ($MSFT) is having a decent morning following yesterday’s earnings report. The shares are up about 1.7%. What’s interesting is that the stock was actually down in yesterday’s after-hours market. It’s wise not to place too much faith in those prices.

I also see that JPMorgan ($JPM) got to a new 52-week high earlier today.

As far as earnings season goes, the most recent numbers show that nearly 75% of the 143 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far have topped expectations.

Moog Lowers Guidance
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 9:57 am

We got our first disappointment of this earnings season. Moog ($MOG-A) said today that it’s lowering its full-year guidance. The previous range was $3.50 to $3.70 per share. The new range is $3.50 to $3.60 per share. That’s honestly not that bad and the CEO was quite candid:

“We’re off to a slow start in 2013,” said John Scannell, CEO. “The weakness in the major economies around the world is affecting our industrial business. On the other hand, the aircraft market is strong. We have moderated our forecast for the year slightly but we are still projecting growth in both sales and earnings in 2013, despite the headwinds in our industrial markets.”

Quarterly revenues were up 3% to $621 million. Net earnings dropped 6% to $34 million. On a per-share basis, Moog made 75 cents last quarter. Since no one follows them, I can’t say if that beat or missed expectations.

At one point early in today’s trading, Moog was as low as $40.06 which is a drop of 11.6%. The stock, however, quickly recovered and is now down 60 cents which is a loss of 1.3%. If you own Moog, there’s no need to worry about today’s news. The stock still looks good for the long-term.

CWS Market Review – January 25, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 8:18 am

“Most investors want to do today what they should have done yesterday.”
– Larry Summers

In the CWS Market Review from two months ago, I wrote: “But with the election behind us, the clouds have cleared, and I see a strong year-end rally ahead of us. In fact, I think the S&P 500 can break 1,500 by the early part of 2013.” Well, it took the index just 24 days into 2013 to vindicate our prediction.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 indeed broke through the 1,500 barrier for the first time since December 12, 2007. The index has now risen for seven days in a row, which is its longest winning streak since 2006. The Dow is off to its best start in more than a quarter of a century.

In this week’s CWS Market Review, I want to focus on the Q4 earnings parade which continues to help our Buy List beat the market. Through Thursday, we’re up 6.62% for the year, which is 1.81% ahead of the S&P 500. All 20 of our stocks are up for the year, and five have already logged double-digit gains.

But I have to warn you: I think the market’s rally is starting to look a bit tired in the near-term. I don’t see any major problems on the horizon, but I don’t want investors thinking the last few weeks are “normal.” They’re not. There’s still a lot of trouble out there for stocks that can’t deliver. An example would be Apple’s $250 plunge since September. Our Buy List is doing well, and it’s not due to luck: it’s due to quality.

Buy CA Technologies up to $27 per Share

Last week, I said that CA Technologies ($CA) should be able to beat Wall Street’s earnings forecast, and that’s exactly what happened. On Tuesday, CA reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 63 cents per share, which was two cents better than Wall Street’s forecast. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.2 billion, which was also ahead of the Street at $1.17 billion.

This is considered to be a rather dull company, and some people think it’s behind the times. But I see a good value. The day after the earnings report, the shares responded by rallying as high as $25.57 before pulling back some. If you recall from last week’s issue, I raised the Buy Below price from $24 to $27. This is a solid stock, and it pays a generous dividend, but I don’t want you chasing it if it continues to rally. I’m keeping my Buy Below price where it is. CA Technologies remains a good buy up to $27 per share.

We got more good news on Tuesday when Wells Fargo ($WFC) announced that it’s increasing its dividend by 14% (I also saw this coming). The bank is raising the quarterly payout from 22 cents to 25 cents per share. Bear in mind that the Federal Reserve still has many of these banks on double-secret probation, so any dividend increase must be approved by Bernanke and Friends. Earlier this month, Wells reported record quarterly earnings, and it beat Wall Street’s forecast. Wells Fargo currently yields 2.84% and is a solid buy up to $37.

Stryker ($SYK), the orthopedic implant maker, reported very good quarterly earnings on Wednesday. To be fair, the company had already told us to expect good news, yet the market continues to reward shares of SYK. With a 15.74% YTD gain, it’s the #1-performing stock on our Buy List. Consider this fact: Shares of Stryker have lost ground only twice in the last 17 trading days.

For Q4, Stryker earned $1.14 per share, which was two cents more than Wall Street’s estimate. For all of 2012, the company made $4.06 per share, which is a healthy increase over the $3.72 per share from 2011. That’s very good growth for a sluggish economy.

I was particularly impressed that Stryker reiterated its full-year forecast for earnings to range between $4.25 and $4.40 per share. Frankly, that’s probably too conservative, but it’s smart to play it safe so early on in the year. Don’t be surprised to see higher guidance from Stryker later this year.

Two weeks ago, I raised my Buy Below on Stryker to $62 per share. Even though the stock has run beyond that, I’m going to hold my Buy Below here. Again, I don’t want investors to chase after good stocks. As always, our investment strategy involves discipline.

Microsoft Isn’t the Disaster Everyone Thinks

After the closing bell on Thursday, Microsoft ($MSFT) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 76 cents per share, which was a penny ahead of expectations. I think these results were decent despite widespread claims that Windows 8 has been a bust.

For the quarter, Microsoft’s profits dropped by 4% compared with last year. Quarterly revenue rose 3% to $21.46 billion, which was just shy of Wall Street’s forecast of $21.53 billion. The Windows division makes up about one-quarter of Microsoft’s overall business, and sales there rose by 11%. However, the company is getting slammed in its entertainment and office divisions.

To be sure, Microsoft has its share of problems. The online division is a financial black hole, and Xbox revenue is falling rapidly. On the plus side, Microsoft is doing better with business customers. That’s often been a tough nut for MSFT to crack. They were able to sign up more customers to long-term contracts, which bodes well for future business.

The problems Microsoft is having are plaguing the entire PC sector, and that’s one of the reasons why the company has joined a possible deal to take Dell ($DELL) private. I think one analyst summed it up well when he said, “Microsoft is evolving really into an enterprise software company.”

The bottom line is that Microsoft is a company with a lot of problems. But the share price is well beneath the fair value. The stock is currently going for less than 10 times this fiscal year’s earnings. Microsoft remains a good buy up to $30.

More Buy List Earnings Next Week

We had some more good news this week from other Buy List stocks. I was pleased to see Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) get a 4.4% lift on Thursday thanks to an upgrade from Oppenheimer. BBBY is still a good buy up to $60 per share.

Ross Stores ($ROST) got a 3.5% boost on Thursday after it was upgraded to outperform by Credit Suisse. They raised their price target on ROST from $60 to $68. Ross Stores is an excellent buy up to $62.

I’m writing this early Friday, and later today Moog ($MOG-A) will report earnings. In the CWS Market Review from November 16, when Moog was going for $34, I said it could “be a $45 stock within a year.” Try within ten weeks. Moog just broke $45, but don’t chase it if it crosses $46.

Next week, we get earnings reports from Ford ($F), Harris ($HRS) and CR Bard ($BCR). I’m especially looking forward to strong results from Ford. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of 26 cents per share, and Ford should beat that by a lot. I haven’t heard details yet from Nicholas Financial ($NICK), but it’s very likely they’ll also report next week.

That’s all for now. Earnings season continues next week. The government will also give us a first look at Q4 GDP report. Next Friday will be the important jobs report. The jobless claims reports have been quite good recently, so that may be a harbinger of a strong jobs number. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Morning News: January 25, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 25th, 2013 at 7:02 am

Chinese Graduates Say No Thanks to Factory Jobs

UK Slides Back Towards Recession

German Business Confidence Gains Third Consecutive Month

Credit Bubble Seen in Davos as Cohn Warns of Repricing

Fed Pushes Into ‘Uncharted Territory’ With Record Assets

Geithner Exits Treasury as Lew Prepares for Senate Vote

A Signal to Wall Street In Obama’s Pick For Regulators

Jobless Claims in U.S. Decrease, Prolonging Seasonal Swings

Kerry Says Will Make ‘Appropriate Judgement’ on Keystone

AT&T Adds Wireless Users But Trails Verizon

Nokia Reports Profit but Fails to Soothe Investors

Starbucks Reports 13% Rise in Profit

Cisco Sells Home Networking Business To Belkin

Roger Nusbaum: Is Risk Parity A Savior Strategy?

Cullen Roche: About That Global Secular Bear Market

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S&P 1,500!!
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 24th, 2013 at 10:09 am

The last time we were above 1,500 was on December 12, 2007. The first time was March 22, 2000.

Applocalypse
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 24th, 2013 at 9:47 am

Shares of Apple ($AAPL) are getting slammed today after a poor earnings report. The stock is currently down $60 per share. Every $9.50 in Apple’s share price is worth one point in the S&P 500.

The S&P 500, in contrast, continues to close in on 1,500. The high this morning has so far been 1,496.16.

Netflix ($NFLX) is up 43% today. The company is now worth $7 billion after it reported earnings of $8 million.

Our Buy List is doing well today. Stryker ($SYK) is responding well to its earnings. Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY) is up on an upgrade. Ross Stores ($ROST) is also doing well and Microsoft ($MSFT) is up ahead of its earnings after the close.

Morning News: January 24, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 24th, 2013 at 6:44 am

Japan Logs Record Trade Gap In 2012, Yen Impact Yet To Show

Spanish Jobless Rate Hits Record After Rajoy’s First Year

I.M.F. Forecasts Modest Global Economic Growth

Bernanke Seen Pressing On With Stimulus Amid Debate on QE

Sizing Up the Default ‘Nightmare’

Heady Returns, but Apple Finds Its Stock Falling

General Dynamics Forecasts 2013 Profit Short of Estimates

Netflix Soars as New Subscribers Lead to Surprise Quarter Profit

McDonald’s Profit Rises as Dollar Menu Drives U.S. Sales

Hyundai Compensation Payment Hits Profit

US Airways Doubles Quarterly Profit

Baker Hughes 4th-Quarter Net Falls 32%

Barclays Asia Division Hit With Layoffs

Nokia to Omit Dividend for First Time in 143 Years

Jeff Miller: Do You Understand Ceteris Paribus?

Phil Pearlman: Throw Your Hands Up In The Air & Buy ‘em Higher Like You Just Don’t Care

Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Stryker Beats By Two Cents Per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 23rd, 2013 at 11:06 pm

After the closing bell today, Stryker ($SYK) reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. If you recall, two weeks ago, the company told us that the numbers were going to be good, and the stock has rallied ever since.

Today Stryker said that it earned $1.14 per share in Q4 which was two cents ahead of expectations. For the entire year, Stryker earned $4.06 per share. That’s an increase from $3.72 per share in 2011.

Overall sales rose 5.5 percent in the quarter from a year ago, rebounding from the third-quarter’s sluggish 1 percent growth rate that resulted from soft pricing, the company said. Demand for orthopedic devices has slumped in the weak economy as patients deferred procedures due to lack of insurance or higher out-of-pocket expenses.

Stryker executives said they were encouraged by sales momentum for hip and knee products going into 2013.

“At the very least, the market is stable to maybe modestly improved in the fourth quarter,” Stryker Vice President Katherine Owen said on a conference call with analysts.

The most important news, in my opinion, is that Stryker sees 2013 earnings ranging between $4.25 and $4.40 per share. The stock has now rallied for 13 of the last 16 days, and one day was unchanged. I suspect that the 2013 figure is a bit too low, although it’s too early to know for sure.