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Morning News: February 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 18th, 2025 at 7:01 amXi’s Embrace of China Tech CEOs Spurs Hope of Big Economic Shift
Xi’s Tech Meetup Is a Bullish Sign for China’s Economy
ASEAN Nations Needs a Supergrid to Meet Climate Goals
Kurdistan Oil-Export Resumption Could Pose Challenges for Iraq
Europe’s Natural Gas Euphoria Masks a Gloomy Reality
World Bank to Decentralize Operations, Shift Regional VPs to Overseas Hubs
There’s No Template for the Shock Europe Just Got
Trump and Putin Teams Meet in Saudi With Europe Sidelined
Trump Isn’t Playacting When He Invokes Napoleon
Former Staffers Say India’s Biggest IT Firm Was Gaming the US Visa System
The World’s Most Important Market Sends a Warning
Can the Fed Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?
Fed Wanted an Inclusive Jobs Recovery. Some Are Asking If That Helped Fuel Inflation
At the ‘Wall Street of Eggs,’ Demand Is Surging
No, Elon Musk Hasn’t ‘Discovered’ Fraud at Social Security
Republicans Want Lower Taxes. The Hard Part Is Choosing What to Cut.
JPMorgan Set to Relive ‘Huge Mistake’ at Javice Fraud Trial
Musk Debuts Grok-3 AI Chatbot to Rival OpenAI, DeepSeek
Cisco and IBM Show Old-School Tech Names Can Be AI Winners Too
With AI Friends Like These, Who Needs Humans?
Diamondback Energy to Acquire Double Eagle
Scania Agrees to Buy Northvolt’s Heavy Industry Battery Business
United Rentals Drops $3.4 Billion Purchase of H&E Equipment
The Startup That Stepped In When the Baby Formula Supply Chain Broke
‘Gut Pop’ Is Injecting New Fizz Into the Beverage Aisle
Heineken CEO Aims to Tap Into Thirst for Zero-Alcohol Beer
China’s Love Affair With Luxury Has Cooled
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Morning News: February 17, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 17th, 2025 at 7:06 amThe Transatlantic Alliance as We’ve Known It Is Dead
Trump’s New World Order Leaves Europe Flailing
Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes Offer Europe’s Markets a Tailwind in the Shadow of Tariffs
Trump Proposals Would Cut German Growth, Bundesbank’s Nagel Says
Trump Leads US Down the Foggy Road of Reciprocal Trade
How Trump’s One-for-One Tariff Plan Threatens the Global Economy
India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats
Milei Stumbles Into Crypto Memecoin Scandal Before US Trip
Trump’s Phone Call With Putin Is Causing a Stir in Taiwan
Xi Voices Support for Jack Ma, China Private Sector Chiefs
Wall Street’s China Plans in Tatters After Years of Setbacks
From Japan, a Hard Lesson About a Weak Currency
Japan Economy Grew Faster Than Expected in Final Quarter of 2024
Five Iraqi Banks to Be Banned from US Dollar Transactions
Trump Wants to Bring Down Treasury Yields. Here’s What to Know.
Musk’s DOGE Team Tries to Gain Access to Taxpayer Information
Bain Capital Ends Pursuit of Fuji Soft
OPEC+ Considers Delaying April Supply Restart, Delegates Say
California Insurer of Last Resort Went Bust. It Won’t Be Alone.
Posting Through It: Climate Change Is Fueling Social Media Use
Anglo American to Retain 20% Stake in Demerged Platinum Business
South Korea Bans Downloads of DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. App
Why Did Microsoft Admit That AI Is Making Us Dumb?
Shein Is Said to Face Investor Pressure to Slash Valuation to $30 Billion
Dry January Is the Least of Big Booze’s Problems
One Fix for Ailing Movie Theaters? Becoming Nonprofits.
Why Porsche Is No Longer a ‘Premium’ Sports Car in China
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Morning News: February 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 14th, 2025 at 7:01 amIn Europe, Ordinary Russians Are Shunned By Wary Banks
America First? For Europe, It’s America as Usual
Trump Officials Ordered by Judge to Lift Freeze on USAID Funding
China’s Central Bank Signals Policy Adjustments Amid Rising Global Risks
Trump Is Newly Unleashed on Trade, With Global Consequences
Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Policy ‘a Step in the Wrong Direction,’ EU Says
What Are the Reciprocal Tariffs Trump Is Promising?
Whiskey Offers Window Into the Pain of a Trade War
Tariff Man Strikes Again — And Markets Ignore Him
Why Investors Appear Unfazed by the Latest Trump Tariffs
How Torsten Slok Solved the ‘Sherlock Holmes Mystery’ of the Economy
Traders Look for $10 Million Payout in Bet on 5% US Yield
Goldbug FOMO Is Setting Up the Market for a Fall
Trump’s Push to End Pennies Offers Money Lessons from Collectors
Trump Tax-Cut Push Kicks Off With Much-Worse Deficit This Time
ICE Raids Send Chill Through Migrant Workforces
Back Up Everything. Even if Elon Musk Isn’t Looking at It.
The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate
DeepSeek Doesn’t Scare OpenAI, Thanks to the ‘Jevons Paradox’
The Tulip’s Quiet War on Roses: A Valentine’s Day Battle
‘You’ve Blown a Hole in the Family’: Inside the Murdochs’ Succession Drama
Boeing’s Push to Boost 737 Production Starts With Closing ‘Shadow Factory’
Umicore Shares Fall After Dividend Policy Reset
Walmart Is Retail King Again. Can It Keep the Crown?
Birkin Bag Maker Hermes Posts Higher Revenue on Strong Americas Performance
A Libertarian Island Dream in Honduras Is Now an $11 Billion Nightmare
The NBA Has Fallen Into an Efficiency Trap
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Morning News: February 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 13th, 2025 at 7:06 amTrump’s Ukraine Deal Looks Great — for Putin
Trump’s Ukraine Plans Mean a $3 Trillion Bill for European Allies
Germany Requests Exemptions From Gas Storage Filling Target
Taiwan Prepares for Trump’s Tariffs, and a Changed Washington
Trump Vows Reciprocal Tariffs Today Without Giving Details
Chaotic USAID Shutdown Costs Intensified by Wasted Supplies, Layoffs and Lawsuits
‘Deregulation by Firings’: Breaking Down the Cuts to Financial Oversight
With Attack on Consumer Bureau, Musk Removes Obstacle to His ‘X Money’ Vision
Republicans Love Trump’s Spending Cuts. Just Not in Their States.
A.P. Accuses White House of Violating First Amendment
How Elon Musk and the Right Are Trying to Recast Reporting as ‘Doxxing’
Top N.I.H. Official Abruptly Resigns as Trump Orders Deep Cuts
Bird Flu Is a Big Threat. The US Needs to Start Acting Like It.
Eggs-istential Inflation Scrambles Bond Markets
US Bonds Rise After Hot Inflation Fuels Worst Day Since December
Inflation Expectations Are Back in the Debate Over Fed Rates
Inflation Helped Trump Get Elected. Now It’s His Problem.
Why 10-Year Yields Are on the Treasury Secretary’s Mind
The Secretive Hedge Fund Rewriting the Rules of $4.5 Trillion Industry
As Buyers Fail to Show Up, More Homes Are Being Pulled From Sale
How Silicon Valley Swung From Obama to Trump
Quantum Computing Is Closer Than Ever. Everybody’s Too Busy to Pay Attention.
Apple’s Stock-Market Performance Is Increasingly Made in China
Honda and Nissan Scrap $50 Billion Merger Plan
Unilever Picks Amsterdam Over London for Ice Cream Unit’s Primary Listing
Japan Perfected 7-Eleven. Why Can’t the US Get It Right?
SharkNinja CEO Says There’s No Supply Chain for US-Made Blenders
Crocs 4Q Results Beat Estimate with Lift from Heydude Brand
As Salaries Boom, It’s a Good Time to Be an N.F.L. Coach
Your Stolen Car Is In a Shipping Container, Bound for Africa
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Morning News: February 12, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 12th, 2025 at 7:03 amEuropean Defense Startups Drive $5.2 Billion Funding Spree in 2024
Milei’s Plan to Boost Farm Exports: Stop Ships From Running Aground
China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase
How China’s Growth Headwinds Shape Its Response to Trump
What Modi and India Can Offer Trump on Tariffs and Trade
Why Trump Hit the International Criminal Court With Sanctions
Trump Advisers Look to Shift US Foreign Aid to Wall Street Ally
America First Is Quickly Becoming America Alone
To Win the Global Money Game, America Has to Play
Who Pays for Tariffs (Hint: It’s most often not other countries.)
A Hot Inflation Print Is Set to Derail S&P 500’s Run to Record
With High Prices Persisting, Trump Tempers Tone on Slaying Inflation
How Car Insurance Would Help Tariffs Cast a Long Inflation Shadow
Activist Breakup Wins Should Rattle Size-Obsessed CEOs
Fearing Trump, Wall Street Sounds a Retreat on Diversity Efforts
McKinsey Champions Diversity While Rivals Abandon Targets
SoftBank Posts Quarterly Loss, Gears Up for Giant AI Project
How Trump’s Policies Have Shaken America’s IT Departments
Nvidia Shares No Longer Bulletproof as DeepSeek Fears Linger
Alibaba Becomes China’s New AI Darling With $87 Billion Rally
Meta’s Accounting Move on AI Servers to Boost Profit This Year
China’s Vast Energy Market Swallows DeepSeek Impact
Tesla Can’t Afford Another Twitter-Size Distraction
Ford Chief Executive Says Trump Policies May Lead to Layoffs
Biogen Forecasts Bigger Annual Sales Decline Than Expected
CVS Rises After Fourth-Quarter Profit Signals Improvement
How Oura’s Smart Ring Bridged the Gap From Tech Bros to Normies
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CWS Market Review – February 11, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 11th, 2025 at 6:38 pm(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)
After a very good 2024, the stock market seems to have settled into its comfort zone. For the S&P 500, that’s apparently anywhere between 6,025 and 6,085. The index has closed inside that narrow range ten times in the last eleven trading sessions.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed higher by one-thirtieth of 1%. That means for every $30 you have in the market, you made one penny today.
That’s so small that if the index closed higher by that much every day for an entire year, the total gain would be a little less than 9%. In fact, today’s gain almost perfectly matches the market’s average gain for a single day.
This is a big change from last year when the index steadily marched higher without much pushback.
We’re also not seeing any major undercurrents within the market. Neither value nor growth are leading the way. Large-cap tech has had some good days recently and some lousy ones, but there’s no larger trend at work except the absence of one.
We’re heading toward the back end of earnings season, and so far, this has been a very good earnings season for Wall Street. According to numbers from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the S&P 500 is on pace for Q4 earnings growth of 13.89%. That’s up from 8.71% one month ago.
Of the companies that have reported so far, 76.6% have beaten on earnings and 61.4% have beaten on sales.
So where does this put the Federal Reserve? Traditionally, the Fed has had its fingerprints near the scene of any bear market, but this time could be different.
“We Do Not Need to Be in a Hurry”
“We do not need to be in a hurry.” So said Fed Chair Jerome Powell as he testified before Congress today. In this instance, I think the Fed Chair is exactly right.
The Fed doesn’t need to act swiftly right now since the Fed has already cut rates a few times. That’s taken some of the pressure off the central bank. We also don’t know what the outcome of President Trump’s tariff policies will be, or even how long they’ll last.
Twice a year, the Fed Chairman testifies before members of Congress. I should caution you that watching members of Congress attempt monetary policy is not for the faint of heart. The boring stuff happens in the House or Senate chambers, but the real action is in the committees.
A few years ago, I went to the Senate office building to watch the festivities. I got there early and was able to snag the seat directly before Alan Greenspan. If you like endless jargon, then the Fed testimony is for you.
At its last meeting, at the end of January, the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates alone. The current range for the Fed funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%. Before the January meeting, the Fed had lowered interest rates at three successive meetings. The first cut was by 0.5% and the other two were by 0.25%.
So far, there hasn’t been any disharmony between the White House and the Fed. President Trump even said he agreed with the Fed holding rates steady at its last meeting, but that goodwill may not last. Last Friday’s jobs report could lead to calls for more rate cuts.
The Economy Created 143,000 New Jobs Last Month
On Friday, the government said that the U.S. economy added 143,000 net new jobs last month. That’s an OK figure, but it’s nothing great. It was below Wall Street’s estimates of 169,000 jobs, and it was also below December’s revised gain of 307,000.
The best news in the report is that average hourly earnings rose by 0.5%. That’s a very nice gain and it’s more than inflation. In previous reports, wages have been rising but only slightly more than inflation. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up 4.1%.
On a technical note, the Bureau of Labor Statistics did its annual revisions, and that reduced its jobs count for last year. In plain English, they overcounted the number of jobs. We already knew they overcounted, but we didn’t know by how much. It turns out that it was by 589,000 jobs.
Oopsie!
On the plus side, the jobs numbers for November and December were revised higher. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%. Except for January 1970, the unemployment rate is lower now than it was during the entire 1970s, 80s and 90s.
Job growth for January was concentrated in health care (44,000), retail (34,000) and government (32,000). The total gain for the month was slightly off the average 166,000 in 2024, the BLS said. Social assistance added 22,000, while mining-related industries lost 8,000.
Also, more people are looking for work. The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1% to 62.6%. The broader U-6 jobless rate held steady at 7.5%. There’s really nothing in this report to convince the Fed that it needs to get back to lowering rates, but that could change.
The Fed meets again in another month and it’s very doubtful that they’ll change rates. In fact, the Fed may not make any rate changes for a few months. Currently, traders think there’s a 59% chance of a rate cut by the end of July.
The next big news will come tomorrow when the Fed releases the CPI report for December. This could be a very influential report. The backstory is that inflation came down quickly from its high, but it’s had a hard time falling much below 3% or so. The Fed’s official policy is to get inflation back to 2%.
I’m really starting to question the efficacy of a 2% inflation target. What makes 2% inflation vastly better than 3%? I don’t know the answer.
For tomorrow, Wall Street expects the core and headline rates to have increased by 0.3% last month. That would place the 2024 headline rate at 2.8%, and the full-year core rate at 3.2%. The year-over-year rates have been moving higher in recent months, which must be frustrating for the Fed.
That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.
– Eddy
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Morning News: February 11, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 11th, 2025 at 7:02 amSpooked Arab World Scrambles for Response to Trump’s Gaza Plan
Russia’s Sakhalin Island Oil Is Backing Up After US Sanctions
Why Europe’s Gas Storage Has Become More of a Worry
BP Touts ‘New Beginning,’ Fundamental Change in Strategy
How Trump’s Canadian Oil Tariff Would Hit America’s Heartland
The Black Market for Oil Will Continue to Thrive
EU Pledges Countermeasures Against Trump’s Tariffs on Metals
Is It Made of Metal? It Could Get More Expensive Under Trump’s Latest Tariffs.
Confusion Reigns as ‘a Wrecking Ball’ Hits the Consumer Bureau
Who Will Protect the Fed’s Independence? The Markets
Markets Hedge That This Time, Trump Means It
JPMorgan Defector Aims to Make Wells Fargo a Wall Street Force
Goldman Sachs’ Exclusive Investing Club Is a Powerful Draw
Hedge Funds Are Pocketing Much of Their Clients’ Gains With ‘No Limit’ Fees
Carlyle’s Schwartz Met 2024 Goals. What He Does Next Will Define Him.
Accounting Firms Hire Growth Leaders as Dealmaking Shakes Up Industry
Seeking God, or Peter Thiel, in Silicon Valley
Altman Says OpenAI Is ‘Not for Sale’ After Musk’s Offer
What’s Behind Elon Musk’s Hostile Bid for Control of OpenAI
Google, SoftBank Back Quantum Startup QuEra in $230 Million Deal
Super Micro’s Roller Coaster Continues Into Earnings with 59% Stock Pop in Past Week
Spotify Founders Pocket $1 Billion Selling Booming Tech Stock
Marriott Profit Beats Estimates in Record Year for Adding Rooms
How Loaded Fries and Large Sodas Helped One Restaurant Chain Beat Inflation Blues
Why Fast Food Could Be MAHA’s Next Target
Coca-Cola’s Higher Prices and Volume Drive Earnings Beat
Who Needs Hollywood? Chinese Animated Film Shatters Box Office Records.
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Morning News: February 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 10th, 2025 at 7:03 amNew Zealand Locks Out Foreign Home Buyers Even as Golden Visa Rules Eased
Don’t Blink Now, Trump. Russia’s Economy Is Cracking
Front-Loading Tariffs Undercuts Trump’s Promise of Faster Growth
Weaponizing Canadian Oil Would Rattle Trump
Trump Plans to Impose 25% Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Imports
Trump’s Man of Steel Posturing Makes America Weaker
Trump’s Renewables Permit Flip-Flop Unsettles Sector
Why Fentanyl Is at the Center of New US-China Trade Fight
Shein Asks Some Chinese Suppliers to Diversify to Vietnam
Trump’s Tariffs Make Currency Trading Cool Again After Years of Decline
Trump’s Tariff Threats Extend Safe-Haven Gold’s Record Rally
The S&P 500 Is Too Big to Falter on Trump’s Tariffs
Trump Fanned Inflation Fears. Now They Haunt His Presidency.
36 Hours After Russell Vought Took Over Consumer Bureau, He Shut Its Operations
DOGE-Backed Halt at CFPB Comes Amid Musk’s Plans for ‘X’ Digital Wallet
The Musk Deputy Running DOGE’s Huge Cost-Cutting Drive
Tech Firms Want to Upend the Pentagon. The Old Defense Guard Has Some Lessons for Them.
For CEOs and Bankers, the Trump Euphoria Is Fading Fast
Trump Tells U.S. Treasury to Stop Minting Pennies
TD Bank Hopes to Raise $14 Billion in Schwab Stake Exit
Alarmed, Employers Ask: What Is ‘Illegal D.E.I.’?
What DeepSeek’s Success Says About China’s Ability to Nurture Talent
McDonald’s Sales Improve on Stronger International Results
Coke’s $7 Billion Bet on Milk Hits Big, But Wall Street Wants More
Hyatt to Buy All-Inclusive Resort Owner Playa for $2.6 Billion
Who’s Watching What on TV? Who’s to Say?
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Morning News: February 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 7th, 2025 at 7:02 amIndia Central Bank Kicks Off Easing Cycle to Boost Economy
Europe Is Looking to Roll Back Climate Accounting Rules
ECB Updates Estimate of Neutral Rate as Policy Makers Question Its Usefulness
Broken Markets Hold Back Europe as Trump Amps Up the Pressure
Trump Trade Nominee Defends Plan to Reorder International Trade
What Closing the De Minimis Tariff Loophole for US Imports from China Means
The Real Danger of Trump’s Incoherent Trade Policy
The Early Verdict on Tariffs: Bad Economics, Better Politics
Bessent Projects Normalcy While ‘Completely Aligned’ With Musk
Trump’s Executive Orders Leave Imprint on the Fed
Solid Labor Market Gives Fed Cover to Extend Rate Pause
Crypto’s First Family Is Deepening the Swamp
Tether Revs Up Deal Machine After Its Embrace by ‘Establishment’
The Perpetual Hunt for ‘Alpha’
Fannie Mae Underpins the Mortgage Market. Should the Government Sell It?
Senate Confirms Russell Vought as Office of Management and Budget Director
Bond Traders Await Payrolls Print That May Vindicate Fed Caution
After LA Fires Destroyed Mansions, Banks Reckon With Jumbo Loans
Business Schools Confront Trump Immigration Policies
GM, Pepsi, Disney, Others Scrub Some DEI References from Investor Reports
Bain Capital to Buy Mitsubishi Chemical’s Pharma Business for More Than $3 Billion
Legal & General to Sell U.S. Insurance Businesses in $2.3 Billion Deal
Amazon, Like Microsoft, Says It Can’t Keep Up With AI Demand
Venture Global IPO Shows Limits of Trump Bump
Porsche Shares Slide After Profit Warning for 2025
New Orleans Needs an Economic Win. It’s Betting on the Super Bowl.
The Reason Why This Super Bowl Has So Many Conspiracy Theories
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Morning News: February 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 6th, 2025 at 7:03 amSilicon Valley Leans Into ‘Lethal’ Tech While Europe Waits on a Defense Plan
Trump Flashes Newfound Imperialist Streak in White House Return
Trump Should Learn From Helsinki, Not Yalta, on Foreign Policy
Bessent Explains Trump. It Won’t Be the Last Time
Hawkish BOJ Board Member Calls for Potentially Faster Rate Hikes
Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates as British Economy Weakens
Northern Ireland Worries About Fallout From Transatlantic Trade War
King Dollar Won’t Follow Trump’s Tariff Playbook
Data Hoarders Are Rushing to Save Vanishing US Health Records
Friday’s Jobs Report Will Be Confusing. Here’s How to Make Sense of It.
US Jobs Will Get Marked Down, But Not as Much as Once Feared
US Banks Raise Equity to Jumpstart Deals, Bolster Balance Sheets
Societe Generale Shares Jump After Results Beat Expectations
SocGen Says It Won’t Follow Wall Street Out of Climate Alliance
Pimco Is Falling Behind as Private Credit Booms
Exiled From Goldman Sachs, a Fallen Star Finds His Next Act
Could the Trade Fight Take a Bite Out of Apple?
Conoco Quarterly Net Income Fell, Expects 2025 Production Growth
TotalEnergies Hails Power Profit as Rivals Pull Back on Renewables
Can Nissan Survive Without Honda’s Helping Hand?
Honeywell to Break Up After Pressure From Activist Elliott
Peloton Posts Profit Beat and Raises Guidance, Shares Surge
The Heist of 100,000 Eggs in Pennsylvania Becomes a Whodunit that Police Have Yet to Crack
Orange Juice Makers Are Desperate for a Comeback
Philip Morris Beats Estimates as Demand for Zyn Pouches Surges
$62,000 for the Super Bowl. $1 Million for Formula 1. How Much Would You Pay for a Sporting Event?
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Does anyone have a suit of armor, jet skis and a blowtorch I can borrow/rent? There's an experiment I'm working on.
This is pretty amazing. US elections combined since 1924:
GOP: 1,058,301,749
DEM: 1,057,846,951
Oth: 88,548,252Unemployment spikes in Washington, DC
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Eddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His 