Morning News: February 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 24th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Austria, a Longtime Buyer of Russian Gas, Tries to Break the Habit

Russia Is Wooing Western Energy Companies, but Will They Return?

Corporate America Is Not Raring to Return to Russia if Trump Lifts Sanctions

ECB Might Have to Lower Key Rate to Level That Stimulates Economy, Wunsch Says

German Business Confidence Remains Weak at Start of New Political Era

In Britain, a Fight Over a Film Studio Becomes a Test for the Economy

Italy’s Saipem to Merge With Norwegian Rival Subsea7 in $4.9 Billion Deal

SoftBank, Temasek Among eFishery Investors Facing Near Wipeout

U.S. to Hit Chinese Ships With Hefty Port Fees

U.S. Dockworkers Vote on Labor Deal This Week

Musk’s Federal Worker Order Divides Trump Administration

Is Trump Strong or Weak? Americans Will Decide

Wishful Thinking Won’t Solve the US Debt Crisis

The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People

Why Private Equity Is Eying Your Nest Egg

Everyone Hates Pennies, Except This Guy

That Online Investment Scam Is a Geopolitical Problem

Microsoft Cancels Leases for AI Data Centers, Analyst Says

Apple to Build A.I. Servers in Houston and Spend $500 Billion in U.S.

Apple Will Add 20,000 US Jobs Amid Threat from Trump Tariffs

Human Therapists Prepare for Battle Against A.I. Pretenders

Trump’s Early Policy Moves Create New Headaches for This Biotech Heavyweight

Apollo to Buy Real-Estate Firm for $1.5 Billion as it Seeks to Fill Gaps

Walmart Wants to Be Something for Everyone in a Divided America

Prosus to Buy Just Eat Takeaway.com for $4.3 Billion

Domino’s US Sales Fall Short, Highlighting Worsening Conditions

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Morning News: February 21, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 21st, 2025 at 7:02 am

Why Are Pro-Palestinian Activists Suddenly So Quiet?

Ukraine’s Women Keep the Economy in Gear Despite the War

Ukraine Can Survive With the ‘Least Worst’ Peace Deal

‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ Chatter Is Getting Wall Street’s Attention

When Germany Votes, It Will Be About the Economy

Euro Vulnerable Ahead of German Election

Trump’s Growing Focus on Tariff Revenue Raises Trade War Odds

Airbus Says U.S. Tariffs Would Be ‘Lose-Lose’ for Airline Industry

The Latest Dilemma Facing Finance Chiefs: What to Tell Investors About Tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Wars Leave US Small Business With Nowhere to Hide

Why Trump’s Clean Energy Rollbacks Could Derail a Factory Boom

RBI to Inject $10 Billion Via Forex Swap to Curb Cash Crunch

BOJ’s Ueda Vows to Respond to Abnormal Bond Yield Rise

Wall Street’s New Money Is Shaking Up the Ranks of the Superwealthy

Wall Street’s ‘Original Rogue Trader’ Nick Leeson Is Starting to Get Worried

Meet Seven of America’s Top Personal Finance Influencers

The Case for Getting Your Child a Retirement Account

BlackRock Resumes Talks With Companies Following SEC Guidance

Trump’s Cuts at US Agencies Starve Internet Watchdogs That Fight Disinformation

D.E.I. Comes and Goes. Profits Are Forever.

DeepSeek Promises to Share Even More AI Code in a Rare Step

Super Micro Computer’s Next Leg Hinges on Keeping Nasdaq Listing

Big Miners Show Era of Bumper Payouts Is Over

In the Trump Era, Flying Green Doesn’t Matter Anymore

Soaring Egg Prices Reignite Debate Over Bird Flu Vaccinations

Moody’s Cuts Nissan Motor’s Rating to Junk Status

Universal’s Theme Parks, Long in Disney’s Shadow, Expand at Dizzying Pace

Seeking Golf Deal, Trump Meets With Tiger Woods and Saudi Wealth Fund Chief

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Morning News: February 20, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 20th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Russia Wins When the US Stops Fighting Corruption

Is Russia Open for Business — and at What Cost?

A Unified Economic Theory of Being a Bully

Ukraine Is Just a Pawn in a Russian Reset

Europe Races to Craft a Defense Plan After Trump’s Ukraine Broadside

Xi Risks Becoming Top US Threat If Trump Cuts Deal With Putin

Trump Says New China Trade Deal ‘Possible’ Despite Tensions

Argentine Mortgages Triple as Milei Reignites a Snuffed-Out Housing Market

Something Is Rotten in Canada

How Tariffs Could Shock America’s Power System

Bessent Says US ‘Long Way’ From Boosting Longer-Term Debt Sales

Interest Rate Cuts on Hold Until Inflation Improves, Fed Minutes Show

So, You Want to Get Rid of the Penny. Do You Have a Plan for the Nickel?

With Truth Social, Trump Has Official Mouthpiece and a Channel for Revenue

‘Sticker Shock’ Awaits US Consumers If Tariffs Threats Become Reality

Trump’s First Month Has Traders Ditching America-First Wagers

Howard Lutnick Starts Wall Street Dynasty With DJ and Trader Sons

Fund Giant BlackRock Is Out to Unite Public and Private Markets

Millennium Lures Team With $100 Million Bid as Hedge Fund Talent War Rages

Microsoft Says It Has Created a New State of Matter to Power Quantum Computers

TikTok Returns to US App Stores Buffeted by Weeks of Uncertainty

Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slump

Alibaba Posts Fastest Revenue Growth Since 2023

Walmart Warns of Slower Sales Gains After a Bumper Year

Hasbro Expects Mild Sales Growth in 2025 as Tariffs Loom

Birkenstock’s Revenue Rises on Strong Holiday Period

You Can Take the Fried Chicken Out of Kentucky …

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Morning News: February 19, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 19th, 2025 at 7:05 am

China Inc. Reduces Bets on North American Projects

Even Brazil’s Billionaires Scrap Investment Plans as Rates Hit Double Digits

Rare Earths in Ukraine? No, Only Scorched Earth.

Europe Is Becoming an Afterthought for the World

U.K. Inflation Reaches 10-Month High, Complicating Bank of England’s Rate Path

Rubio Says Sanctions Stay for Now as Trump Eyes Putin Summit

Trump Floats 25% Tariffs on US Auto, Drug, Chip Imports

HHS Job Cuts Jeopardize Our Health and Safety

Elon Musk Zeroes In on the I.R.S.

DOGE Says It’s Saved $55 Billion; Itemized Data Show Far Less

Struggle Over Americans’ Personal Data Plays Out Across the Government

The Cryptocurrency Scam That Turned a Small Town Against Itself

Private Credit Is the Hot New Thing on Wall Street. But What Is It?

Citrone Joins Top-Paid Hedge Fund Ranks With $730 Million Payday

Mastercard Faces Scrutiny Over £200 Million Deal in £10 Billion Case

HP to Buy Parts of Humane, Maker of the Ai Pin, for $116 Million

Musk’s X in Talks to Raise Money at a $44 Billion Valuation

Trump Is Scrambling Global Automakers’ Reliance on America

Mitsui to Acquire $5.3 Billion Stake in Rio Tinto’s Australia Iron Ore Project

How Med Spas Conquered America

How Temu’s Online Dollar Store Became a Trade War Target

Shein $30 Billion IPO Would Still Be a Stretch

Canadian Tire Selling Helly Hansen to Kontoor Brands for C$1.28 Billion

Hermes in ‘League of Their Own’ as Family Gets $5 Billion Payout

The French Billionaire Working His Trump Ties to Spare His Luxury Empire

Bao Buns and Coat Checks Come to Lucky Strike Bowling Alleys (and Cost Cuts Too)

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CWS Market Review – February 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 18th, 2025 at 6:17 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The stock market was closed yesterday in honor of President’s Day. The long weekend wasn’t enough to stop the bulls. The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 6,129.58. That’s another new all-time closing high.

For any person who’s watched financial markets long enough, you’re struck by how easily the market can rally amid unpleasant news. The old saying is that “the market climbs a wall of worry.”

Think of all the scary news that could have led you to dump all your stocks. Yet, through it all, sitting and waiting was a great strategy.

Despite it being another up day for Wall Street, Meta Platforms (META), the parent of Facebook, snapped a 20-day winning streak today. The last time that Meta’s stock closed lower was on January 16. Over that time period, Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth increased by $40 billion.

On January 29, Meta reported Q4 earnings of $8.02 per share. That was 18% higher than Wall Street’s forecast. Check out all those black crosses in a row!

December Retail Sales Drop 0.9%

Wall Street got a big shock on Friday with the latest retail sales report. According to the report, retail sales fell 0.9% last month. Bear in mind, that’s not adjusted for the 0.5% inflation we saw last month.

That retail sales report was much worse than expected. Wall Street had been expecting a modest decline of 0.2%. The number for November was revised to 0.7%.

This suggests that consumers are holding back on their shopping. I can’t blame them. Consumers are getting squeezed by higher prices – eggs are up over 50% over the last year – and also by small wage gains. Consumers make up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If shoppers aren’t happy, the economy won’t prosper.

Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. A “control” measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%.

With consumer spending making up about two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S., the sales numbers indicate a potential weakening in growth for the first quarter.

Receipts at sporting goods, music and book stores tumbled 4.6% on the month, while online outlets reported a 1.9% decline and motor vehicles and parts spending dropped 2.8%. Gas stations along with food and drinking establishments both reported 0.9% increases.

Some folks are saying the report really isn’t that bad. Some of the drop is due to bad weather. Also, auto sales fell after delivering a big gain in December. Maybe so, but those factors were known prior to the report and it still fell far below expectations.

The retail sales report is especially worrisome because it comes after another bad inflation report. It’s becoming very clear that inflation isn’t going away. Core inflation is holding steady around 3.3% or so, which is much higher than the Fed’s target.

The Budget Deficit Soars

Yesterday, the government said it ran a budget deficit last month of $129 billion. Holy moly, that’s big! The deficit is up significantly from the $22 billion deficit it ran for last January.

It’s not hard to pinpoint the problem. For January, receipts grew 8% to $513 billion, but outlays were up 29% to $642 billion.

The Treasury said there were some technical reasons for the big increase such as benefit payment calendar shifts. Also, payments of $87 billion worth of February benefits were paid out in January. Treasury said the adjusted deficit increase for the month would have been $21 billion instead of the reported $107 billion.

Still, that doesn’t exactly put me at ease. For the first four months of this fiscal year, the U.S. Treasury reported a deficit of $840 billion. That’s up 58% from last year. For the year so far, receipts are up 1% to $1.6 trillion, but outlays are up 15% to $2.4 trillion. For the new fiscal year, individual income taxes are up 6%.

Customs receipts were up 12% but that’s a very small portion of receipts. This doesn’t yet reflect any of the new tariffs on Chinese goods that went into effect recently.

The most concerning number is the interest payments on the debt. You can’t escape those. So far this year, interest expenses are up 10% to $318 billion. Social Security outlays, which is the single-largest item on the budget, are up 8% to $529 billion. Military spending rose 13% to $318 billion.

I try not to be an alarmist on these matters, but if we’re in better fiscal shape, that gives the Fed a lot more room to lower interest rates. The rolling 12-month deficit is now running at 7.3% of GDP. Ideally, that should be cut in half. These deficits are having an effect. Consider that over the last 16 months, the price for gold has gained close to 50%.

Even with the holiday-shortened week, there are still a few things to look out for this week. Tomorrow we’ll get reports on housing starts and building permits. The Fed will also release the minutes of its last meeting. The Fed decided to leave interest rates alone, but it will be interesting to see if the central bank has any broader concerns about the economy.

On Thursday, we’ll get the regular jobless claims report. This data series has held up well in recent months despite the concerns news about retail sales. Then on Friday, we’ll get the report on existing home sales.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: February 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 18th, 2025 at 7:01 am

Xi’s Embrace of China Tech CEOs Spurs Hope of Big Economic Shift

Xi’s Tech Meetup Is a Bullish Sign for China’s Economy

ASEAN Nations Needs a Supergrid to Meet Climate Goals

Kurdistan Oil-Export Resumption Could Pose Challenges for Iraq

Europe’s Natural Gas Euphoria Masks a Gloomy Reality

World Bank to Decentralize Operations, Shift Regional VPs to Overseas Hubs

There’s No Template for the Shock Europe Just Got

Trump and Putin Teams Meet in Saudi With Europe Sidelined

Trump Isn’t Playacting When He Invokes Napoleon

Former Staffers Say India’s Biggest IT Firm Was Gaming the US Visa System

The World’s Most Important Market Sends a Warning

Can the Fed Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?

Fed Wanted an Inclusive Jobs Recovery. Some Are Asking If That Helped Fuel Inflation

At the ‘Wall Street of Eggs,’ Demand Is Surging

No, Elon Musk Hasn’t ‘Discovered’ Fraud at Social Security

Republicans Want Lower Taxes. The Hard Part Is Choosing What to Cut.

JPMorgan Set to Relive ‘Huge Mistake’ at Javice Fraud Trial

Musk Debuts Grok-3 AI Chatbot to Rival OpenAI, DeepSeek

Cisco and IBM Show Old-School Tech Names Can Be AI Winners Too

With AI Friends Like These, Who Needs Humans?

Diamondback Energy to Acquire Double Eagle

Scania Agrees to Buy Northvolt’s Heavy Industry Battery Business

United Rentals Drops $3.4 Billion Purchase of H&E Equipment

The Startup That Stepped In When the Baby Formula Supply Chain Broke

‘Gut Pop’ Is Injecting New Fizz Into the Beverage Aisle

Heineken CEO Aims to Tap Into Thirst for Zero-Alcohol Beer

China’s Love Affair With Luxury Has Cooled

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Morning News: February 17, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 17th, 2025 at 7:06 am

The Transatlantic Alliance as We’ve Known It Is Dead

Trump’s New World Order Leaves Europe Flailing

Ukraine Ceasefire Hopes Offer Europe’s Markets a Tailwind in the Shadow of Tariffs

Trump Proposals Would Cut German Growth, Bundesbank’s Nagel Says

Trump Leads US Down the Foggy Road of Reciprocal Trade

How Trump’s One-for-One Tariff Plan Threatens the Global Economy

India Plans More Tariff Changes to Curb Trump’s Trade Threats

Milei Stumbles Into Crypto Memecoin Scandal Before US Trip

Trump’s Phone Call With Putin Is Causing a Stir in Taiwan

Xi Voices Support for Jack Ma, China Private Sector Chiefs

Wall Street’s China Plans in Tatters After Years of Setbacks

From Japan, a Hard Lesson About a Weak Currency

Japan Economy Grew Faster Than Expected in Final Quarter of 2024

Five Iraqi Banks to Be Banned from US Dollar Transactions

Trump Wants to Bring Down Treasury Yields. Here’s What to Know.

Musk’s DOGE Team Tries to Gain Access to Taxpayer Information

Bain Capital Ends Pursuit of Fuji Soft

OPEC+ Considers Delaying April Supply Restart, Delegates Say

California Insurer of Last Resort Went Bust. It Won’t Be Alone.

Posting Through It: Climate Change Is Fueling Social Media Use

Anglo American to Retain 20% Stake in Demerged Platinum Business

South Korea Bans Downloads of DeepSeek, the Chinese A.I. App

Why Did Microsoft Admit That AI Is Making Us Dumb?

Shein Is Said to Face Investor Pressure to Slash Valuation to $30 Billion

Dry January Is the Least of Big Booze’s Problems

One Fix for Ailing Movie Theaters? Becoming Nonprofits.

Why Porsche Is No Longer a ‘Premium’ Sports Car in China

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Morning News: February 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 14th, 2025 at 7:01 am

In Europe, Ordinary Russians Are Shunned By Wary Banks

America First? For Europe, It’s America as Usual

Trump Officials Ordered by Judge to Lift Freeze on USAID Funding

China’s Central Bank Signals Policy Adjustments Amid Rising Global Risks

Trump Is Newly Unleashed on Trade, With Global Consequences

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Policy ‘a Step in the Wrong Direction,’ EU Says

What Are the Reciprocal Tariffs Trump Is Promising?

Whiskey Offers Window Into the Pain of a Trade War

Tariff Man Strikes Again — And Markets Ignore Him

Why Investors Appear Unfazed by the Latest Trump Tariffs

How Torsten Slok Solved the ‘Sherlock Holmes Mystery’ of the Economy

Traders Look for $10 Million Payout in Bet on 5% US Yield

Goldbug FOMO Is Setting Up the Market for a Fall

Trump’s Push to End Pennies Offers Money Lessons from Collectors

Trump Tax-Cut Push Kicks Off With Much-Worse Deficit This Time

ICE Raids Send Chill Through Migrant Workforces

Back Up Everything. Even if Elon Musk Isn’t Looking at It.

The Unicorn Boom Is Over, and Startups Are Getting Desperate

DeepSeek Doesn’t Scare OpenAI, Thanks to the ‘Jevons Paradox’

The Tulip’s Quiet War on Roses: A Valentine’s Day Battle

‘You’ve Blown a Hole in the Family’: Inside the Murdochs’ Succession Drama

Boeing’s Push to Boost 737 Production Starts With Closing ‘Shadow Factory’

Umicore Shares Fall After Dividend Policy Reset

Walmart Is Retail King Again. Can It Keep the Crown?

Birkin Bag Maker Hermes Posts Higher Revenue on Strong Americas Performance

A Libertarian Island Dream in Honduras Is Now an $11 Billion Nightmare

The NBA Has Fallen Into an Efficiency Trap

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Morning News: February 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 13th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Trump’s Ukraine Deal Looks Great — for Putin

Trump’s Ukraine Plans Mean a $3 Trillion Bill for European Allies

Germany Requests Exemptions From Gas Storage Filling Target

Taiwan Prepares for Trump’s Tariffs, and a Changed Washington

Trump Vows Reciprocal Tariffs Today Without Giving Details

Chaotic USAID Shutdown Costs Intensified by Wasted Supplies, Layoffs and Lawsuits

‘Deregulation by Firings’: Breaking Down the Cuts to Financial Oversight

With Attack on Consumer Bureau, Musk Removes Obstacle to His ‘X Money’ Vision

Republicans Love Trump’s Spending Cuts. Just Not in Their States.

A.P. Accuses White House of Violating First Amendment

How Elon Musk and the Right Are Trying to Recast Reporting as ‘Doxxing’

Top N.I.H. Official Abruptly Resigns as Trump Orders Deep Cuts

Bird Flu Is a Big Threat. The US Needs to Start Acting Like It.

Eggs-istential Inflation Scrambles Bond Markets

US Bonds Rise After Hot Inflation Fuels Worst Day Since December

Inflation Expectations Are Back in the Debate Over Fed Rates

Inflation Helped Trump Get Elected. Now It’s His Problem.

Why 10-Year Yields Are on the Treasury Secretary’s Mind

The Secretive Hedge Fund Rewriting the Rules of $4.5 Trillion Industry

As Buyers Fail to Show Up, More Homes Are Being Pulled From Sale

How Silicon Valley Swung From Obama to Trump

Quantum Computing Is Closer Than Ever. Everybody’s Too Busy to Pay Attention.

Apple’s Stock-Market Performance Is Increasingly Made in China

Honda and Nissan Scrap $50 Billion Merger Plan

Unilever Picks Amsterdam Over London for Ice Cream Unit’s Primary Listing

Japan Perfected 7-Eleven. Why Can’t the US Get It Right?

SharkNinja CEO Says There’s No Supply Chain for US-Made Blenders

Crocs 4Q Results Beat Estimate with Lift from Heydude Brand

As Salaries Boom, It’s a Good Time to Be an N.F.L. Coach

Your Stolen Car Is In a Shipping Container, Bound for Africa

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Morning News: February 12, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 12th, 2025 at 7:03 am

European Defense Startups Drive $5.2 Billion Funding Spree in 2024

Milei’s Plan to Boost Farm Exports: Stop Ships From Running Aground

China’s Property Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase

How China’s Growth Headwinds Shape Its Response to Trump

What Modi and India Can Offer Trump on Tariffs and Trade

Why Trump Hit the International Criminal Court With Sanctions

Trump Advisers Look to Shift US Foreign Aid to Wall Street Ally

America First Is Quickly Becoming America Alone

To Win the Global Money Game, America Has to Play

Who Pays for Tariffs (Hint: It’s most often not other countries.)

A Hot Inflation Print Is Set to Derail S&P 500’s Run to Record

With High Prices Persisting, Trump Tempers Tone on Slaying Inflation

How Car Insurance Would Help Tariffs Cast a Long Inflation Shadow

Activist Breakup Wins Should Rattle Size-Obsessed CEOs

Elon Musk in the Oval Office

Fearing Trump, Wall Street Sounds a Retreat on Diversity Efforts

McKinsey Champions Diversity While Rivals Abandon Targets

SoftBank Posts Quarterly Loss, Gears Up for Giant AI Project

How Trump’s Policies Have Shaken America’s IT Departments

Nvidia Shares No Longer Bulletproof as DeepSeek Fears Linger

Alibaba Becomes China’s New AI Darling With $87 Billion Rally

Meta’s Accounting Move on AI Servers to Boost Profit This Year

China’s Vast Energy Market Swallows DeepSeek Impact

Tesla Can’t Afford Another Twitter-Size Distraction

Ford Chief Executive Says Trump Policies May Lead to Layoffs

Biogen Forecasts Bigger Annual Sales Decline Than Expected

CVS Rises After Fourth-Quarter Profit Signals Improvement

How Oura’s Smart Ring Bridged the Gap From Tech Bros to Normies

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