• Best Credit Card Ever
    Posted by on June 11th, 2006 at 9:42 pm

    At least, according to this guy.

  • Submerging Markets
    Posted by on June 11th, 2006 at 7:23 am

    Since the second week of May, emerging markets are down 16%. The Economist takes a closer look:

    Emerging economies have been strikingly successful in raising equity finance in the form of foreign direct investment, which accounted for almost half of the private capital they imported in 2005. They have also attracted the attentions of private-equity firms in recent years. But their record in wooing portfolio investors, who want to buy shares not companies, has been patchy. Foreign punters flirted with local stockmarkets in the year before the Asian financial crisis, for example, but were then embarrassed by the losses they incurred. As one money manager put it, “We did not go very deep, and we did not stay very long.”

  • A Look at the Long-Term
    Posted by on June 10th, 2006 at 6:21 pm

    In this week’s Barron’s, Mike Santoli looks at the long-term cycles of the Dow. The really long-term. Here’s the chart from Rydex:
    Rydex.gif
    You can see that there are several long cycles to the Dow (flat, up, flat, up, flat, up). This chart is a favorite of Barry Ritholtz‘s, and he even has his own, and I think, better version.
    There’s an important lesson here: Investors need to have long time horizons. There have been long periods where the markets have been flat. I’m glad I wasn’t a professional investor in the 1930s or 1970s.
    However, I don’t think all hope is lost. Here’s a chart of the total return of the market since 1925 (data is from Ibbotson). The blue line is the market. The two black lines are upper and lower trend lines, and the red line is a “best fits” trend line.
    image489.png
    Unlike the Rydex chart, this includes dividends. That makes a big difference. It’s also much broader than the Dow 30. Keep in mind that if the editors at Dow Jones hadn’t have taken IBM out the index in 1939, the Dow would have broken 1,000 in 1961 instead of 1972. The Dow underperformed the rest of the market for decades.
    Even after all the pain of the last six years, the Wilshire 5000 Total Return Index (^DWCT) came within inches of a new all-time high just a few weeks ago. Bottom line: I think we’re sitting in the dead center of the long-term trend.
    Update: Sam Stovall at S&P lists what he calls “bull market corrections” since 1970.

  • Shariah-Grade Investing
    Posted by on June 10th, 2006 at 3:47 pm

    Ganesh Sahathevan looks at the growth–and abuse–of Islamic financing in Malaysia.

  • There Will Always Be an England
    Posted by on June 10th, 2006 at 3:29 pm

    The New Yorker used to say, “There will always be an England.” I thought of that as I read the opening paragraph of the Times‘ coverage of England’s 1-0 World Cup win over Paraguay:

    Seventy sunny, soporific minutes had elapsed when Frankfurt resonated to the sound of 40,000 anglo-saxon voices chanting Wayne Rooney’s name, and how England need their convalascent talisman. With Michael Owen out of sorts and substituted, it took an own-goal by Paraguay’s captain, Carlos Gamarra, to prevent the opening match in the World Cup from becoming yet another false start.

    Beautiful.

  • That’s So Gross
    Posted by on June 10th, 2006 at 3:20 pm

    Daniel Gross makes good on his promise to eat Dow 36,000.
    Good for him for being a good sport (and taking a lot of ribbing from me).

  • I’ve Got World Cup-Mania!
    Posted by on June 9th, 2006 at 9:09 am

    I’m going to get an early start to the weekend, so I won’t be posting much today. But don’t feel lonely, the folks on my blogroll will keep you company.
    Here are a few quick items to note. Only three stocks from the Buy List will be reporting earnings in June. These are the weird stocks that end the quarter in May. The three stocks are FactSet Research Systems (FDS), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and Biomet (BMET). FactSet will report on June 20, BBBY on June 21 and Biomet on June 28. Also, Expeditors (EXPD) will split 2-for-1 later this month, so don’t freak when you see the lower share price.
    The big economic news next week will be the CPI and PPI. Steve Leisman is already working on his flip charts. I can feel the excitement. Also, much of Wall Street itself reports earnings; Lehman (LEH) on Monday, Goldman (GS) on Tuesday and Bear Stearns (BSC) on Thursday.
    Speaking of Goldman, you can see their rating on any stock here. Assuming they cover it.
    The New York Times covers Hedge Stock (don’t ask).
    Carl Bialik, the Numbers Guy, looks at the Ethanol debate.
    The long-end of the yield curve has become almost completely flat. The yield on the 30-year is close to falling below 5% for the first time in two months. The hard assets stocks have been getting creamed lately. Alcoa (AA), a Dow component (why), is down 17% in the last month.
    The World Cup gets started today. Germany plays Costa Rica and Ecuador takes on Poland. America’s first game is on Monday against the Czech Republic, which is probably somewhere in Europe.
    Have a fabo weekend, everyone! L8RZ!

  • Intel to sell Dialogic Unit
    Posted by on June 8th, 2006 at 3:05 pm

    I’m amazed at the decline of Intel (INTC). The stock hit yet another 52-week low today–$17.05. Imagine if someone told you ten years ago that Intel’s stock would slightly underperform the market over the coming decade. (It’s true). EE Times reports that the company is looking to sell its Dialogic unit (via F**ked Company).

  • Stalk Your Broker
    Posted by on June 8th, 2006 at 11:56 am

    At the NASD’s Web site, you can check the background of your stock broker.
    To look up a particular broker, you have to click “Agree” to a lot of legal mumbo jumbo, which includes not making the info public. So if you want to look up, say, Yevgeny Mihailovich Plotkin of Goldman Sachs, you’ll have to do it yourself.

  • Look Out Below!
    Posted by on June 8th, 2006 at 11:39 am

    The market is plunging this morning. The S&P 500 just lost all of its gains for the year. The index fell below 1240 to reach its lowest point in six months.