David Phillips on Arden Group
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 23rd, 2006 at 9:44 am

David Phillips, the 10-Q Detective, looks at Arden Group (ARDNA) and likes what he sees:

Perhaps the Company should rename itself, “The Cheap Gourmet.” In 2005, despite generating operating cash flow of more than $33.0 million, capital expenditures totaled $6,390,000, which included costs of approximately $2,400,000 related to the remodeling and expansion of the Century City store. The balance sheet is in great shape, with Total Debt-to-Equity of approximately 2.0 percent.

Medtronic’s Financials
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 23rd, 2006 at 7:44 am

Here are Medtronic’s numbers for the past several quarters:
Quarter………..EPS………….Sales
Jul-01…………$0.28………..$1,455.70
Oct-01………..$0.29………..$1,571.00
Jan-02………..$0.30………..$1,592.00
Apr-02………..$0.34………..$1,792.00
Jul-02…………$0.32………..$1,713.90
Oct-02………..$0.34………..$1,891.00
Jan-03………..$0.35………..$1,912.50
Apr-03………..$0.40………..$2,148.00
Jul-03…………$0.37………..$2,064.20
Oct-03………..$0.39………..$2,163.80
Jan-04………..$0.40………..$2,193.80
Apr-04………..$0.48………..$2,665.40
Jul-04…………$0.43………..$2,346.10
Oct-04………..$0.44………..$2,399.80
Jan-05………..$0.46………..$2,530.70
Apr-05………..$0.53………..$2,778.00
Jul-05…………$0.50………..$2,690.40
Oct-05………..$0.54………..$2,765.40
Jan-06………..$0.55………..$2,769.50
Apr-06………..$0.62………..$3,080.00 (est)
Jul-06…………$0.59………..$3,020.00 (est)
If the earnings report is inline with expectations, then Medtronic’s trailing P/E ratio will drop to 22, its lowest level in a decade.
In October, the company boosted earnings guidance for FY06, FY07 and FY08. Remarkably, the stock is down 11% since then.

Medtronic’s Earnings Preview
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 22nd, 2006 at 11:44 am

Medtronic reports earnings tomorrow. The AP has a preview:

OVERVIEW: The acquisition of Boston Scientific Corp. and Guidant Corp. during the period changed Medtronic’s competition landscape slightly. Guidant had always been second to Medtronic in the market for implantable defibrillators _ devices implanted in the body to regulate heart rhythm _ while Medtronic seeks to grab share in the drug-coated stent market currently dominated by Boston Scientific and Johnson & Johnson Inc.
Medtronic, the world’s largest medical device maker, gained share in the defibrillator market following Guidant’s product recalls last year, but must hold onto those gains now that Boston Scientific is working to revamp its acquired product lines.
BY THE NUMBERS: Although Medtronic did not issue fourth-quarter guidance, it has fiscal-year earnings guidance of $2.20 to $2.23 per share, and revenue guidance between $11.1 billion and $11.6 billion. Given total adjusted earnings per share of $1.59 and revenue of $8.23 billion for the first three quarters, that implies a fourth-quarter estimate of 61 cents to 64 cents per share earnings on revenue of $2.87 billion to $2.92 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial estimate earnings of 62 cents per share on revenue of $3.08 billion.
ANALYST TAKE: Lehman Brothers analyst Bob Hopkins said the upcoming earnings report is an issue of concern. The analyst estimates earnings per share of 61 cents for the quarter. Hopkins, who rates Medtronic “Overweight,” said as long as Medtronic can keep defibrillator sales at $760 million or above, the stock may avoid weakness.
Merrill Lynch’s Katherine Martinelli, with her “Buy” rating, considers Medtronic a preferred heart device stock given the premium price of competitor St. Jude Medical Inc.
WHATS AHEAD: Medtronic and other medical device makers are likely to unleash their lobbyists on Washington this summer to dispute steeper-than-expected proposed reimbursement cuts by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services on such products as stents, defibrillators and pacemakers.
STOCK PERFORMANCE: Shares of Medtronic fell 12 percent to close the fiscal quarter ended April 28 at $50.12 on the New York Stock Exchange. Over the previous four quarters, shares have slid 5 percent.

The Late Cyclicals Are Being Left Behind
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 22nd, 2006 at 11:30 am

I just ran this chart a few days, but it’s worth updating for today. The black line is Morgan Stanley’s index of consumer stocks. The gold is the early cyclicals, and the blue is the late cyclicals.
My point is that this is not a broad downturn. The market is being very selective. Outside of energy and metals, things aren’t so bad. Yet.

The 10-year yield just dipped below 5%.

More of the Same
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 22nd, 2006 at 11:11 am

The market is moving lower, and once again, the cyclical stocks are getting hit the hardest. In fact, the divergence between cyclicals and the rest of the market appears to be accelerating.
The Dow Oil & Gas Index (^DJUSEN) is down another 10 points today to 444. Remember, this index just recently tried to break 500 on three occasions. Materials stocks are also being punished. The rest of the market is only down slightly. The Brazilian iShares (EWZ) are down over 8% today.
The Buy List is again ahead of the broader market (meaning, not down as much). Lowe’s (LOW) had a good earnings report today. The company earned $1.06 a share, which was 12 cents higher than estimates. Shares of LOW are higher, and HD is lower.
The VIX (^VIX), the market’s volatility index, is much higher today. Believe it or not, they are people who “trade” volatility, and volatility bulls are very happy today. The VIX is up to 19. It was at 13 before last week’s CPI report.
Finally, I noticed these two articles in the British press:
‘Is this a crash like 1987? No chance!’
Markets ‘are like 1987 crash’

Weekend Reading
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 21st, 2006 at 4:10 pm

For a quiet Sunday:
D-I-Y Hedge Funds
The Growth of Growth Theory
Currency Markets Mistook Indonesia for Turkey

Happy 200th Birthday John Stuart Mill
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 20th, 2006 at 2:28 am

Richard Reeves on John Stuart Mill:

He wrote one of the definitive 19th-century works on political economy—and also worked tirelessly for Irish land reform. He produced a landmark argument for equal rights for women, and throughout his life pushed for legal and political reform on their behalf—Millicent Fawcett described him as the “principal originator” of the women’s movement. Mill made, in his famous On Liberty, a timeless case for freedom of speech and action that has inspired generation after generation around the world. But as an elderly MP he also led the successful campaign against Disraeli’s attempt to ban demonstrations in public parks, especially Hyde park—a corner of which remains a symbol of free speech to this day.

The Nasdaq Breaks Its Losing Streak
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 19th, 2006 at 4:26 pm

Not a bad day today. The 10-year bond nearly fell below 5%, and the Nasdaq broke its eight-session losing streak. Helping matters was Dell (DELL), which added 62 cents a share, or about 2.6%. AMD (AMD) was up over 11%, and Intel (INTC) fell 1.5%. On our Buy List, we had a good day from Fiserv (FISV), which was up 2.6%. Also, Sysco (SYY) announced a record sales week.
While most of the Buy List was up today, we were hurt by two big losers. Expeditors (EXPD) dropped 4%, and UnitedHealth (UNH) lost 1.9%. Next week, Donaldson (DCI) reports on Wednesday. The current estimate is for 41 cents a share.
Bloomberg reported that commodities had their worst week in 25 years.

This week, copper plunged 10 percent, the most since October 1994, and gold tumbled 7.6 percent, the biggest drop in more than 15 years. The CRB Index dropped 19.46 this week to 342.29. It reached a record 365.45 six sessions ago.
Copper futures for July delivery slid 24.2 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $3.469 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices still have gained 70 percent this year, reaching a record $4.04 on May 11.
Gold futures for June dropped $23.40, or 3.4 percent, to $657.50 an ounce on the Comex. Prices tumbled 7.6 percent this week was most since August 1990. The metal still has gained 27 percent this year. Silver futures for July fell 13 percent this week after climbing for nine straight weeks.

Dell By The Numbers
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 19th, 2006 at 8:20 am

Here are Dell’s quarterly sales, operating earnings and earnings-per-share for the last nine years:
Quarter…..Sales….Oper. Income…..EPS
1-97………$2,588………$198………..$0.0675
2-97………$2,814………$296………..$0.0725
3-97………$3,188………$346………..$0.085
4-97………$3,737………$397………..$0.10
1-98………$3,920………$429………..$0.11
2-98………$4,331………$483………..$0.12
3-98………$4,818………$539………..$0.14
4-98………$5,173………$595………..$0.15
1-99………$5,537………$600………..$0.16
2-99………$6,142………$694………..$0.19
3-99………$6,784………$650………..$0.18
4-99………$6,801………$513………..$0.16
1-00………$7,280………$625………..$0.19
2-00………$7,670………$736………..$0.22
3-00………$8,264………$818………..$0.25
4-00………$8,674………$589………..$0.18
1-01………$8,028………$588………..$0.17
2-01………$7,611………$545………..$0.16
3-01………$7,468………$544………..$0.16
4-01………$8,061………$594………..$0.17
1-02………$8,066………$590………..$0.17
2-02………$8,459………$677………..$0.19
3-02………$9,144………$758………..$0.21
4-02………$9,735………$809………..$0.23
1-03………$9,532………$811………..$0.23
2-03………$9,778………$840………..$0.24
3-03………$10,622…….$912………..$0.26
4-03………$11,512…….$981………..$0.29
1-04………$11,540…….$966………..$0.28
2-04………$11,706…….$1,006……..$0.31
3-04………$12,502…….$1,089……..$0.33
4-04………$13,457…….$1,187……..$0.37
1-05………$13,386…….$1,174……..$0.37
2-05………$13,428…….$1,173……..$0.38
3-05………$13,911…….$944………..$0.39
4-05………$15,183…….$1,246……..$0.43
1-06………$14,216…….$949………..$0.33
The numbers are in millions except for EPS. Also, since Dell ends its fiscal year at the end of January, this past quarter is technically the first quarter of FY2007. I changed it because it just seems…weird. Don’t ask me why they do it that way, I just own the shares.
Now let’s deconstruct this stock. To the spreadsheets!
Let’s start with operating profit margins:

Yup, this here’s the squeaky wheel. The tech blowout obviously took a big toll on margins (11% is crazy good for a commodity maker). From 2001-2004, Dell was steadily recovering. It was the last three quarters that have been totally off-the-mark.
Now let’s look at sales growth. Here’s the trailing four-quarter sales:

I used a logarithmic scale so the “arcing” pattern is due to the slowing rate of sales growth.
Now let’s look at the sales growth rate:

Wow! You can really see how much Dell’s topline growth rate has “decelerated” (i.e., lower rate of growth) since the glory days. Sales grew just 6.2% last quarter. Nominal economic growth was 6.7%.
If you’re new to investing, here’s an important point. Sales growth and profit margins are closely related. When Dell’s sales growth plunged in 2001–even turning negative for a bit–operating margins got squeezed. Imagine if you ran a business and suddenly everyone stopped buying your product. You’d cut prices which would lower your operating magin.
Notice how, from 2001 to 2004, Dell’s operating margins gradually increased even though its rate of sales growth was slowing down. Assuming you keep your variable costs under control, all a company needs to do to grow its margins is grow its sales faster than its fixed costs. Simple, right? But a commodity business is all about the margins, and Dell’s margins were too fat for its competitors to ignore.
Here’s a scatterplot of Dell’s quarterly sales growth (horizontal) and operating profit growth (vertical):

I didn’t include a trendline, but the slope is clearly greater than 1.0 (meaning the trend rises at greater than a 45° angle). Around 20% is the magic point. Above that, each 1% increase in sales brings in more than a 1% increase in profit.
Here’s Dell’s trailing four-quarter EPS:

That last little down mark is what all the fuss is about. Wall Street thinks it will continue. The Street now projects earnings for this year of $1.44 per share, and $1.70 per share for next.

CNBC’s “Guidelines for Appearances by Financial Professionals”
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 19th, 2006 at 7:15 am

So it does exist! Here’s CNBC’s official “Guidelines for Appearances by Financial Professionals.”

Read more…