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  • Morning News: May 31, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 31st, 2023 at 7:03 am

    India Is Scrapping Its Largest Bill. The Race Is On to Spend It

    U.S. Manufacturers Seek China Alternatives as Tensions Rise

    How Bad Is China’s Economy? Its Stocks Are Now in a Bear Market

    China Woos Dimon, Musk as Pressure Builds on Xi to Boost Economy

    One Fintech’s Behind-the-Scenes Operation Scared Jamie Dimon—Then Won Him Over

    Dimon Hints at Life After JPMorgan, Says He’d Consider Public Office

    Why Bringing a $1.8 Trillion Stock Market to the Big Leagues Could Backfire

    Where Is the U.S. Economy Headed? Follow the Money

    Commodity Crash Signals Disinflation Is Taking Hold for Now

    US Mortgage Rates Hit Near Seven-Month High During Debt Impasse

    The Exclusive $1 Trillion Club: See the List

    Once Mighty Intel Struggles to Escape ‘Mud Hole’

    A.I. Poses ‘Risk of Extinction,’ Industry Leaders Warn

    CEOs Are Earning Big Bucks for Hitting ESG Goals. Is It Just Another Way to Raise Pay?

    Reassessing the Board Fight That Was Meant to Transform Exxon

    Noncompete Clauses Violate Labor Law, NLRB Lawyer Says

    We Asked Workers Why They’re Not Coming Back to the Office

    How Remote Work Connected Employees Making $19 an Hour and $80,000 a Year

    Target Pride Backlash Exposes ‘Rainbow Capitalism’ Problem, Designer Says

    What Are Retail Shrink and Organized Retail Theft, and Why Do Companies Keep Talking About Them?

    Mexican Music Is Taking Over the World

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • CWS Market Review – May 30, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 30th, 2023 at 6:30 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    A Possible Debt-Ceiling Deal

    We finally have an agreement on the debt ceiling. Or rather, some people have agreed to one, but we still don’t know if enough people will agree to it. We’ll find out soon.

    Of course, any bill that gets through the Democratic-controlled Senate and the Republican-controlled House will be a masterwork of parliamentary contortion. Speaker McCarthy wants Congress to vote tomorrow.

    As usual, I’ll steer clear of the politics, but I doubt we’re out of the woods just yet. The important news is that enough of the bigwigs were able to come together, and it looks like there’s not going to be any default. (This time.) Going by the rhetoric of a few days ago, this has to be counted as an accomplishment. Personally, I think the financial media was especially alarmist regarding the debt ceiling, but scary news sells.

    We had been told that Wall Street was getting nervous about a potential default so any debt-ceiling measure would spark a big rally. That didn’t happen. The S&P 500 closed barely positive today (0.0029%).

    I mean barely positive. To add some context, if the market put on today’s gain every day for an entire year, it would be a total gain of about 0.75%. Today was the smallest positive gain for the S&P 500 in four years.

    To be fair, the S&P 500 had already chalked up some nice gains on Thursday and Friday, so maybe an agreement was already “priced in.” The old Wall Street adage says, “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

    Looking at the agreement, the devil is in the details. In fact, there’s a tiny, oddball detail in the agreement that calls for speeding up “the creation of a stalled natural gas pipeline called the Mountain Valley Pipeline.” That news caused shares of Equitrans Midstream (ETRN) to jump 35% today. It’s nice to have powerful friends.

    That’s not all. Shares of SoFi (SOFI), a player in student loan refinancing, also got an 11% bump today because the agreement “calls for borrowers to start paying back federal student loans at the end of the summer.”

    Wall Street’s Latest Frenzy

    The mood on Wall Street has changed markedly in recent weeks. For much of this spring, Wall Street had been, frankly, kind of boring. Not anymore. Now Wall Street is in the grips of a fervid artificial intelligence rally. Or possibly, an AI bubble, but nothing’s burst just yet.

    It’s as if the stock market has been divided in two. The tech sector is on fire and nearly everyone else is fast asleep. The S&P 500 Tech Sector has outperformed the S&P 500 for 10 of the last 11 trading days, and the daily gaps are getting wider.

    The problem with this rally is that there really aren’t many AI stocks. The one superstar is Nvidia (NVDA). Yesterday, Nvidia’s CEO said that the world is at “the tipping point of a new computing era.” Hearing that, I’m reminded of the famous Sir John Templeton quote, “The four most expensive words in the English language are ‘This time it’s different.’”

    Still, you gotta give Nvidia credit. Last week, the company reported blow-out earnings. The company’s sales guidance was 50% higher than expectations. The results were so strong that it lifted nearly every semiconductor stock. Most prominently, Intel (INTC) was left out of the rally.

    Nvidia got as high as $419 today. This has been an astounding run for the stock. In October, Nvidia was going for $108 per share. Today it joined the Four Comma Club, for having $1 trillion in market cap. The company is only 30 years old.

    After Nvidia, the other two AI plays are Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD (AMD). Outside those three, there’s not much, but I shouldn’t be too dismissive. (The Economist has an interesting article on some of the other companies cashing in on AI.)

    The big problem with Nvidia now is price. The stock is going for more than 100 times trailing earnings. Cathie Wood, the portfolio manager of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), said that Nvidia is getting pricey at 25 times estimated sales. As a tech investor, she’s not known for being a stickler on valuation. Wood tweeted that Nvidia is “priced ahead of the curve.” Wood sold her Nvidia position earlier this year.

    As impressively as Nvidia has performed, I’m also skittish about the rich valuation. Nvidia has a very strong business, but I don’t see the need to buy it at 100 times earnings in the middle of a frenetic rally. My advice is to stay away from these frothy tech stocks.

    The Fed May Raise Interest Rates in June

    Thanks to the AI stocks, the shift in the market’s sentiment has been recent and dramatic. Since May 12, the S&P 500 High Beta Index has gained 7.1% while the S&P 500 Low Vol Index has lost 4.9%. In other words, investors have shifted away from conservative and they’re embracing risky stocks. While that’s not unusual to see sector rotations, this one has been sudden and strong.

    When the market shifts towards riskier stocks, that’s often when the Fed is lowering interest rates. We had thought that the Fed was finally looking to pause its rate hikes. Now, that theory might be out the window. Wall Street traders currently expect the Fed to hike rates again at its next meeting in two weeks.

    What changed? Some Fed officials are sounding hawkish. Also, some of the inflation data is proving to be resilient. On Friday, the government released its numbers for personal consumption expenditures. This data is important because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

    For April, PCE inflation hit 0.4%. That was 0.1% more than expected. The core PCE put up the same numbers: an increase of 0.4%, also 0.1% higher than expected. Over the last year, PCE inflation is running at 4.4% and core PCE is at 4.7%.

    These numbers are certainly better than the kind of inflation we saw a few months ago, but the rate of improvement has crawled to a halt. It may be that inflation is stuck at 4.5% to 5%. I don’t know, but the Fed may be set to raise rates at least one more time. The Fed’s next meeting is on June 13-14.

    One stock on our Buy List that continues to do very well for us is FICO (FICO). The stock hit another 52-week high today. We have a 32% gain this year on FICO.

    This is an important week for the stock market. The job openings report comes out tomorrow. On Thursday, we’ll get a look at the ADP private payroll report. We’ll also get the ISM Manufacturing report. Then on Friday, we’ll get the May jobs report. The last report showed the lowest unemployment rate since the 1960s.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

  • Morning News: May 30, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 30th, 2023 at 7:03 am

    China’s Fading Recovery Reveals Deeper Economic Struggles

    Dimon Confronts New China Reality in First Visit Since Covid

    A China Crypto Pioneer Warns Hong Kong May Cool on Digital Assets Longer Term

    Winklevoss Twins Attempt Pivot After Gemini Loses Money and Employees

    Turkish Lira Sinks, Stocks Gain as Investors Bet on Policy Shift

    Why Are Food Prices So High in Europe?

    Companies Push Prices Higher, Protecting Profits but Adding to Inflation

    Following Setbacks, Climate Activists Rethink Their Approach

    Debt-Limit Deal Faces Final Test in Congress to Avert US Default

    Can the ‘California Effect’ Survive in a Hyperpartisan America?

    American Cities Are Starting to Thrive Again. Just Not Near Office Buildings

    Stay Alive Until 2025: How America’s Property Barons Plan To Survive The Commercial Real Estate Crisis

    More High-School Grads Forgo College in Hot Labor Market

    Company Insiders Made Billions Before SPAC Bust

    Nvidia To Join $1 Trillion Club As AI Chip Leader Unveils Expanded Lineup

    Too Rich for Cathie Wood, Nvidia Shares Stretch Valuation Limits

    Deutsche Bank Is on an M&A Hiring Spree

    Why Microsoft’s $75 Billion Bid for Activision Blizzard Hinges on Call of Duty

    Toyota, Daimler Strike Deal to Combine Japanese Truck Operations

    Air New Zealand to Weigh Passengers Before They Board the Airplane

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: May 29, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 29th, 2023 at 7:14 am

    How BRICS Became a Real Club and Why Others Want In

    Seize, Not Just Freeze, Russian Assets? Why That’s Hard

    China Rejects US Claim That It’s ‘De-Risking’ Not ‘Decoupling’

    A Chinese Alternative to Bloomberg Terminals Quietly Limits Information Overseas

    Bear Market Looms for Chinese Equities as Investors Lose Faith

    Turkish Lira Falls After Erdogan Wins Another Five Years in Power

    It’s Not Even ‘Deflation’ In the False Way That Monetarists Define It

    Yellen’s Debt Limit Warnings Went Unheeded, Leaving Her to Face Fallout

    Debt Deal Adds Brake on US Economy Already at Risk of Recession

    Why Spending Cuts Likely Won’t Shake the Economy

    The AI Boom Runs on Chips, but It Can’t Get Enough

    The CEO of YouTube Has a Favorite Video and a Plan to Win Over Anyone Watching TV

    Volkswagen Bets an Old SUV Can Help It Win Over Americans

    Why Americans Are Having Fewer Babies

    Why Do Almost Half of Americans Leave Paid Time Off on the Table?

    It’s ‘More Expensive to Live,’ and Workers Are Tapping 401(k)s for Help

    Why You’re Losing More to Casinos on the Las Vegas Strip

    The Jersey Shore—Yes, That Jersey Shore—Is Now a Luxury Destination

    Salt Life Is Coming to a Beach Near You

    Alo Yoga Is Beating Lululemon at Its Own Game

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: May 26, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 26th, 2023 at 7:04 am

    Europe’s Economic Engine Is Breaking Down

    How a Trade Loophole May Be Letting in Chinese Imports Made With Forced Labor

    Chip Companies, Wary of Break With China, Seek Looser Limits on Federal Cash

    Emerging Debt Deal Would Raise Limit, Cap Spending for Two Years

    Popular Hedge-Fund Trade Draws Fresh Scrutiny as Debt Battle Rages On

    Credit Suisse Loses Case Against Georgian Tycoon

    BofA Warns of Equity Stress as 2023 Flows Turn Flat

    Rolex Cave Watch and Patek Lead Declines in Subdial Index

    The Complete Guide to Haggling in This Economy

    States Are Not Entitled to Windfalls in Tax Disputes, Supreme Court Rules

    Gasoline Prices, a Source of Pain Last Year, Have Come Way Down

    How a Pandemic-Era Program Became a Magnet for Fraud

    Entry to Middle Class or False Promise? Franchises Face Scrutiny

    How AI Is Catapulting Nvidia Toward the $1 Trillion Club

    Nvidia’s $184 Billion Jump in Five Charts

    Cathie Wood’s ARKK Dumped Nvidia Stock Before $560 Billion Surge

    Hyundai and LG Plan $4.3 Billion Battery Plant in Georgia

    Inside Disney and Comcast’s Fight Over the Future of Hulu

    Companies Find Ambitious Logistics Strategies Haven’t Delivered

    Elon Musk’s Neuralink Says It Has FDA Approval for Study of Brain Implants in Humans

    Record $279 Million Whistleblower Award Went to a Tipster on Ericsson

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: May 25, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 25th, 2023 at 7:05 am

    Companies Are Finding It’s Not So Simple To Leave Russia. Others Are Quietly Staying Put

    Once a Symbol of China’s Growth, Now a Sign of a Housing Crisis

    China Warnings Flash Across Global Markets

    It Just Had an Energy Crisis, Now Europe Faces a Food Shock

    Germany Enters Recession in Blow to Europe’s Economy

    US Credit Rating at Risk of Fitch Cut on Debt-Limit Impasse

    The Way Out of the Debt Crisis Could Lead Back Through the Civil War

    Carl Icahn’s Battle with Illumina Comes to a Head

    Bill Ackman Says Icahn ‘Somewhat’ Like Archegos as Stock Plunges Anew

    Nvidia Poised for Record Sales as AI Demand Kicks In

    A Hiring Law Blazes a Path for A.I. Regulation

    Reid Hoffman Is on a Mission: To Show A.I. Can Improve Humanity

    Best Buy Tops Profit Estimates Despite Continuing Sales Slump

    Sergey Brin Has a Secret Plan to Put Airships Back in the Skies

    Adidas After Yeezy

    How Retailers Should Start Catering to Hybrid-Working Customers

    Target Lands in Culture-War Crosshairs Over Pride Month

    Strikes in Europe: How to Plan Around Them

    Half-Empty a Year Ago, Cruises Are Now Packed Like Sardines

    Taylor Swift’s Tour Is Wreaking Havoc on Ticket Reselling

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: May 24, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 24th, 2023 at 7:04 am

    Export Controls Emerge as a Favored US Tool Targeting Russia and China

    Lula Lashes Out and Sends Warning to Central Bankers Everywhere

    EU Sets Out Plans to Cut the Price of Financial Products

    UBS to Have ‘Incredibly High Bar’ on Credit Suisse Staff It Takes On

    UK Inflation Sinks Below 10% for the First Time Since August

    Debt-Limit Doomsday Clock: What June Looks Like for US Treasury

    Default on U.S. Debt Risks ‘Permanently’ Denting Nation’s Credit Rating

    Debt-Ceiling Fight Sends Investors Hunting for New Havens

    Top Jupiter Fund Manager Says Markets Are Wrong on Fed

    After Nearly Collapsing, Indian Billionaire’s Stock Is Back on the Rise

    Chinese Stocks Wipe Out 2023 Gains as Headwinds Intensify

    German Bosses Defy Scholz’s Plea to Shift Away From China

    Almost 200,000 Job Cuts in Tech Pushes New Grads to Wall Street

    Apple Strikes Multibillion-Dollar Supply Deal With Broadcom

    Netflix Cracks Down on Password Sharing

    Toyota, Ford and GM Fight for Midsize Truck Dominance

    Canada’s Homebuyers Need Help From ‘Bank of Mom and Dad’

    Why Tipping Prompts Are Suddenly Everywhere

    Kohl’s Shares Spike as Retailer Reports a Surprise Profit

    Baby-Formula Makers Face FTC Investigation for Collusion

    Target Removing Some LGBTQ Merchandise Following Customer Backlash

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • CWS Market Review – May 23, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 23rd, 2023 at 7:21 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    The S&P 500 Briefly Breaks Above 4,200

    Wall Street continues to be surprisingly serene. Despite some scary headlines such as the endless debt ceiling debate or a looming recession, stock prices are holding up fairly well.

    Last Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at a nine-month high. The index got above that level during the day on Friday and again on Monday but wasn’t able to close at another new high. Today, the market lost a little over 1%.

    In this week’s issue, I want to focus on one of the non-traditional ways of looking at the economy which is through corporate earnings reports.

    Last week, we discussed Home Depot and its less-than-stellar outlook. This week, we’re going to look at Lowe’s and what that means for the economy. Incidentally, Lowe’s and Home Depot aren’t the only retailers who are offering reduced guidance. Target and Walmart have also cautioned investors over what to expect later this year.

    First, though, let’s take a step back and look at the larger picture. The rally that began in October appears to still be going. Measuring for the October low, the S&P 500 is up nearly 20%. That’s a nice run for a few months; however, the index is still far from its all-time high from early last year.

    Last year, we talked a lot about bear market rallies. This latest run appears to be something different from the string of head-fakes we got in 2022.

    I haven’t written much on the debt ceiling debate because there’s not much to add. I prefer to steer clear of politics, and this is political theater at its most theatrical. Everyone wants to appear tough, principled and uncompromising, but at some point, sensible heads will prevail. There’s too much at risk.

    This week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government could default as early as next week. Around Washington, this is being called X-Day. Before, Yellen had said that it’s likely the U.S. government will run out of money. Now she says it’s “highly likely.”

    Technically, the government hit the debt limit in January, but it’s been using “extraordinary” measures to keep things going. Secretary Yellen said that due to the volatile nature of tax payments, it’s hard to determine a precise date when we’ll run out of money. The Bipartisan Policy Center said that if Congress doesn’t act, Uncle Sam will go bust sometime between June 2 and June 13. We’ll see.

    But what about the stock market? As I said before, the market’s been pretty serene lately. You’d think that if we really were in trouble, the market would be telling us. Another explanation is that the market well understands that this is all for show.

    One area where you can see the impact of the debt ceiling debate is on the very short-term yields of the U.S. Treasury market. The yield on the one-month Treasury is currently around 5.7% which is comfortably above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 5% to 5.25%. This suggests a small risk premium for lenders, especially if you have to miss a debt payment.

    The two-month Treasury is much better behaved as its yield is more than 30 basis points less than the one-month Treasury. Again, perhaps the market sees all this quickly passing.

    Here’s a chart which really shows you how unusual the short-term Treasury market is right now. This is the spread between the two-month and one-month Treasury bill yields. It looks like a really bad EKG:

    You’ll notice that in 2020 and 2021, there was barely any reading on the spread between the two-month and one-month bills. Once the Fed started talking about hiking rates, the spread started to widen.

    That makes perfect sense as the spread is like a shorthand way to bet on the Fed raising rates. Still, in 2022, the spread never got very high.

    Lately, however, everything’s gotten completely chaotic. The one-month/two-month spread has jumped from negative 100 basis points to positive 150 basis points. This has happened over the course of a few days.

    Even if the Fed has to delay a debt payment, I don’t see that lasting very long. That means many Americans won’t be getting paid on their fixed-income investments. That’s a voting block I would not want to upset.

    For now, don’t be worried about the debt ceiling debate. The stock market isn’t worried – neither should you be.

    Lowe’s Lowers Guidance

    Last week, I told you about the problems at Home Depot (HD). The company posted its worst sales miss in 20 years. As I said, the Home Depot earnings report probably tells us more about the true state of the U.S. than several government reports do.

    The same can be said for Lowe’s (LOW), and today we got their earnings report. For its fiscal Q1 (ending in early May), Lowe’s said that it made $3.67 per share. That was above Wall Street’s estimate of $3.44 per share. LOW’s revenue was $22.35 billion which topped estimates by $750 million. Same-store sales fell by 4.3%. That was below Wall Street’s forecast for a decline of 3.4%.

    The good news is that shares of LOW closed higher today. This is a good example of a stock closing higher not because of good results but simply because Wall Street was expecting something a lot worse. As always, investing is a game of expectations.

    The big takeaway is that Lowe’s lowered its guidance for the rest of this year. The company now sees sales coming in between $87 billion and $89 billion. That’s down from the previous range of $88 billion to $90 billion. Lowe’s sees same-store sales falling by 2% to 4%. The previous forecast was flat to down 2%.

    Lowe’s also said that full-year earnings will range between $13.20 and $13.60 per share. That’s down from the previous forecast of $13.60 to $14.00 per share.

    That means that Lowe’s is going for about 15.2 to 15.7 times this year’s earnings estimate. That’s not bad, but I would hold off from Lowe’s just yet. Earnings warnings are like cockroaches — for every one you see, there are always a few more hiding.

    As an investor, I’m happy to be a little late to a good story. There’s no need in trying to be a hero by investing at the precise low. I don’t mind holding off on picking up a stock like Lowe’s until interest rates start to fall or the company raises guidance. I want to see better news from Lowe’s before I would build a position.

    I should add that we got one piece of encouraging news from the housing sector today. The report on new homes sales was better-than-expected. New homes were up 4.1% in April and up 11.8% over the last year. Right now, the inventory of homes is very low.

    Update on Previous Stocks

    Last month, we looked at Whirlpool (WHR). This is an interesting case because conventionally, Whirlpool appears to be an inexpensive stock. Looks, however, can be deceiving.

    Shortly after we profiled Whirlpool, the company released a very strong earnings report. For Q1, Wall Street had been expecting $2.28 per share. Instead, WHR earned $2.66 per share. The company also reaffirmed its guidance for earnings this year of $16 to $18 per share.

    Traders hated the report. In two days, WHR lost over 8%.

    The story here is that Whirlpool is working to change its entire business. The company has divested its businesses in Africa and the Middle East, but it’s not leaving Europe. Instead, Whirlpool plans to work with Arcelik, a Turkish company, to make a company that’s focused on the European market.

    Whirlpool recently closed on a $3 billion acquisition of Emerson Electric’s InSinkErator business. Whirlpool has also been cutting costs. The company expects to save between $800 million and $900 million this year.

    Like Lowe’s, Whirpool appears to be cheap. The dividend yield is over 5%, but it all depends on how well the company can transition itself. I’m going to continue to watch Whirpool, but, like Lowe’s, I want to see hard evidence first.

    One recent winner, in addition to United States Lime & Minerals (USLM) is Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS). On May 2, I said it was my favorite regional bank and the stock is up over 10% since then.

    This has been a slow period on Wall Street but that may soon change. The Fed minutes are due out tomorrow. On Thursday, we’ll get an update on the Q1 GDP report. Then on Friday, we’ll see the latest PCE price data.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

  • Morning News: May 23, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 23rd, 2023 at 7:06 am

    Russia Pushes India for Help to Avert Global Financial Isolation

    Australia Tries to Break Its Dependence on China for Lithium Mining

    Saudi Energy Minister Tells Oil Speculators to ‘Watch Out’

    Why Inflation Erupted: Two Top Economists Have the Answer

    Fed Rate Path Hinges on Trade-Off Between Stable Banks or Prices

    New Report Underscores Increasing Chances of U.S. Default in Early June

    Why We May Need a Stock Market Plunge to Solve the Debt Ceiling Crisis

    $793 Billion PGIM Fund Is Betting on Rerun of US Debt Drama

    PacWest Shares Jump After $2.6 Billion Real Estate Loan Sale

    Citi Says Buyers Plow $21 Billion Into US Stocks

    Jamie Dimon Has No Plans to Step Down as JPMorgan CEO Anytime Soon

    Carl Icahn Is $15 Billion Poorer After Hunter Becomes the Hunted

    The Son of a Murdered Tycoon Who Grew Up to Become a Ponzi Scheme Fugitive

    With Ban on Micron, China Escalates Microchip Clash With U.S.

    TikTok Sues Montana Over State’s Ban of Its Service

    Meta Fined $1.3 Billion Over Data Transfers to U.S.

    Shareholder Activists Drag Companies Into U.S. Culture Wars

    Retailers Clamp Down on Returns

    Just Build the Homes

    Hilton, Marriott Square Off in Extended-Stay Battle

    One Scoop of the World’s Most Expensive Ice Cream Will Set You Back Nearly $7000

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: May 22, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 22nd, 2023 at 7:07 am

    China’s $23 Trillion Local Debt Mess Is About to Get Worse

    In Contrast to China, Japan at G-7 Basks in Newfound Appeal to Companies

    Goldman Sachs Says the US Has an Extra 8 Days Before it Runs Out of Money to Pay Its Bills. That Could Buy It More Time to Negotiate the Debt Ceiling

    Morgan Stanley Says US Rally Isn’t Start of Bull Market

    America’s Biggest Bank Is Everywhere—and It Isn’t Done Growing

    JPMorgan Boosts Net Interest Outlook on First Republic Deal

    Immigrants’ Share of the U.S. Labor Force Grows to a New High

    Minnesota Passes Bill Seeking to Ensure Minimum Wage for Gig Workers

    An Oil Refiner Leans on Manure to Provide a Greener Future

    An American Oil Hub Is Pivoting to Offshore Wind

    The U.S. Needs Minerals for Electric Cars. Everyone Else Wants Them Too

    How Did Hyundai Get So Cool?

    Silicon Valley, Cradle of Computer Chips, Gains Big New Research Center

    Micron Stock Tumbles as China Says Chips Are Security Risk

    Apple’s Relentless Rally Puts $3 Trillion in View

    Meta Fined $1.3 Billion Over Data Transfers to U.S.

    As Preteens Ignore Social-Media Age Limits, Governments Push for Better Checks

    Disney’s ABC, ESPN Weakness Adds Pressure to Make Streaming Profitable

    The E-Sports World Is Starting to Teeter

    Ultra-Low Fare Pioneer Bids Farewell to Ultra-Low Fares

    Messi, Ronaldo Lead Saudi Arabia’s Multibillion-Dollar Makeover

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

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  • Eddy ElfenbeinEddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 by 72% over the last 19 years. (more)

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    5h

    On April 9th, the S&P 500 had its third-best rally of the last 80 years (+9.5%). We've gone up another 9% since then.

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    cnbc CNBC @cnbc ·
    6h

    Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    7h

    In 35 years of owning the S&P 500, dividends would have doubled your return.

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    8h

    Odds for a recession this year went from 23% in late Feb to 65% on May 1st, back down to 36% now.

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