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  • Morning News: January 11, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 11th, 2023 at 7:04 am

    French Government Unveils Plan to Raise Retirement Age to 64

    U.S., Allies Prepare Fresh Sanctions on Russian Oil Industry

    Oil and Gas Are Back and Booming

    Powell Says Fed Will Not Be a ‘Climate Policymaker’

    World Bank Cuts 2023 Global Growth Projection as Inflation Persists

    Two Global Recessions in One Decade? That Hasn’t Happened in Over 80 Years

    Wall Street Is Going All In on the Euro

    Fed’s No-Rate-Cut Mantra Rejected by Markets Seeing Recession

    Gundlach Says Listen to Bond Market Rather Than Fed on Rates

    FAA Orders Airlines to Ground All Domestic Flights Until 9AM ET

    Super-Prime Real Estate in New York and Florida Has Hit a Wall

    Mortgage Refinance Demand Surges, As Homeowners Take Advantage of Lower Interest Rates

    Apple to Begin Making In-House Screens in 2024 in Shift Away From Samsung

    Inside Intel’s Delays in Delivering a Crucial New Microprocessor

    Korean Solar Company Plans to Build $2.5 Billion Plant in Georgia

    Several Top Rivian Executives Depart the Electric-Vehicle Startup

    Elon Musk’s Love of Debt Is Destroying His Record Wealth

    Trump’s Tax Returns Show He Was a Bigger Risk Than We Realized

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  • CWS Market Review – January 10, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 10th, 2023 at 6:20 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    The Fed Talks Tough but Will It Act Tough?

    Yesterday, the stock market was having a nice day. At one point, the S&P 500 was up 1.4%.

    But then Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic came out with a 2×4 and smacked the rally over the head. More specifically, he said that the Federal Reserve is going to hold interest rates high until inflation is thoroughly defeated. Central bankers are rarely so direct.

    Bostic said that he sees interest rates rising about 5%. He was then asked how long the Fed would hold rates over 5%. Bostic said, “Three words: a long time.” Bostic even said that it’s “fair to say that the Fed is willing to overshoot.”

    Yikes. He’s not alone. Also on Monday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she also sees rates going above 5%, but she added that it’s unclear for how long.

    Bostic’s words clearly rattled the market. From the day’s high until the close, the Dow dropped over 400 points.

    As dramatic as Bostic’s words were, Wall Street doesn’t buy it and neither do I. For one thing, he’s not even a voting member of the FOMC this year. Neither is Daly, for that matter.

    Two voting members did speak today. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said, “In recent months, we’ve seen a decline in some measures of inflation but we have a lot more work to do, so I expect the [Federal Open Market Committee] will continue raising interest rates to tighten monetary policy.”

    Lastly, the big boss spoke earlier today. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech in Sweden. He stressed that the Fed shouldn’t be subject to political pressures. Powell said, “restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.”

    The important point is that the cheapest asset on the Fed’s balance sheet is talk. It costs them nothing to sound tough. Of course, Fed officials will always say they’re committed to stable prices. That’s what they’re hired to do.

    The problem is that once a recession sets in, the odds are very likely that they’ll get scared and start cutting interest rates. That’s what Wall Street will want and that’s what the politicians will want. Historically, the Fed almost always obliges.

    After all, no Fed official wants to go before Congress and have some member of Congress demand an explanation as to why the Fed is keeping rates highs while their constituents are losing their jobs to fight an already defeated foe. It always amuses me when traders are shocked to discover that the Fed is a political body first, and a monetary authority later.

    The facts are that inflation is showing early signs of weakening and the economy is beginning to show some cracks. Coinbase just said that it’s laying off 20% of its staff. Amazon and Goldman Sachs recently announced job cuts. Tesla appears to have a big oversupply of cars.

    In Q4, Wall Street analysts slashed their 2023 earnings forecast by 4.4%. That’s the largest cut since 2014. This Friday, we’re going to get Q4 earnings reports from big banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America.

    Wall Street doesn’t buy any of this “over 5%” talk. The futures market currently expects the Fed to hike by 0.25% in February and by another 0.25% in March. That would bring the target range to 4.75% to 5%. After that, traders expect the Fed to pause for eight months. After that, they expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates.

    The next big test for the market will come on Thursday when the government releases the CPI report for December. The last CPI report showed that inflation increased by 7.1% in the 12 months ending in November. The year-over-year rate has now declined for five months in a row (see below)

    Wall Street thinks we can make it six in a row. The current consensus says that inflation increased by 6.5% in the 12 months ending in December.

    For the month, Wall Street thinks prices fell by 0.1% while the core rate increased by 0.2%. We’ll know more on Thursday.

    The Lowest Unemployment Rate Since the Sixties

    On Friday, the government said that the U.S. economy created 223,000 net new jobs last month. That beat Wall Street’s forecast of 200,000.

    Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%. Over the last year, average hourly earnings were up by 4.6%. The labor force participation rate was 62.3%. The broader U-6 rate was 6.5%.

    The labor force participation rate can be heavily influenced by demographics such as an aging population. The labor force participation rate for prime working-age adults was 82.4%. That’s still below the pre-Covid peak but it’s not bad considering it fell below 80% during the lockdown.

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. This was the sixth time the unemployment rate got to 3.5% since 1969. I broke out my spreadsheet, looked at the decimals and found out that last month’s unemployment rate reached 3.469%. That was the lowest rate since May 1969. The only months that were lower came during the wars in Korea and Vietnam. In other words, this was the lowest peacetime unemployment rate in 75 years.

    (I understand some may quibble with my use of “peacetime.” I merely mean a labor force not impacted by the draft.)

    I probably shouldn’t jinx it, but I need to mention that our Buy List is off to a very good start in 2023. The Buy List is already 1.3% ahead of the overall stock market. We’ve beaten the S&P 500 in five of the six trading days.

    One of our new stocks, Celanese (CE) is already up 16% this year. Trex (TREX), which got clobbered last year, is a 14% winner so far this year.

    Make no mistake, we’ll have plenty of down days this year, but we’re focused on the long term. If you’re not a subscriber to the premium letter, then I urge you to join us today. It’s $200 for the year or $20 per month.

    I promise not to give you the hard sell, but if you’re interested, check it out!

    Stock Focus: American Water Works

    American Water Works (AWK) is a public utility that provides water to 1,700 communities across 24 states. I know what you’re thinking—slow growth, boring utility. Well, that’s not AWK at all. It has an impressive record for growth. Not only that, but it’s been remarkably consistent in its growth.

    American Water serves a population of 14 million people. The company serves residential and business customers. They also have long-term contracts with the U.S. military.

    The company’s founding goes back to 1866, but it didn’t get its current name until 1947. Most of AWK’s services are managed locally and they navigate local and state laws. The company also owns facilities that run municipal drinking water systems.

    It’s a big business. AWK is a member of the S&P 500. They’ll generate revenues of close to $4 billion this year. American Water “owns 80 surface water treatment plants, 480 groundwater treatment plants, 160 wastewater treatment plants, 52,500 miles of pipes,1,100 groundwater wells, 1,700 pumping stations, 1,300 water storage facilities, and 76 dams.”

    Water is a good business to be in. No town wants to be another Flint, Michigan water disaster.

    The stock IPO’d in 2008. Prior to the IPO, it was owned by RWE, a European utility. They decided to ditch their water business because it was seen as a no-growth anchor.

    No one liked this business. The IPO was a bit of a dud. The underwriters had originally expected $25 or $26 per share. Ultimately, the stock was priced at $21.50 per share. Nearly fourteen years later, AWK is going for $160.77 per share. It’s been a huge success.

    One of the reasons why I like AWK is that it’s one of the steadiest earners around. This is AWK’s adjusted operating earnings per share.

    2009: $1.25
    2010: $1.53
    2011: $1.81
    2012: $2.11
    2013: $2.20
    2014: $2.43
    2015: $2.64
    2016: $2.84
    2017: $3.03
    2018: $3.30
    2019: $3.61
    2020: $3.96
    2021 $4.44
    2022 $4.45 (est)
    2023 $4.77 (est)
    2024 $5.15 (est)
    2025 $5.61 (est)

    I really like these steady, consistent increases. (The net income isn’t as smooth because weather can impact the business.) In my opinion, consistency of returns is underrated by investors. I like to have a good idea of what our stocks are going to do.

    AWK’s Q3 earnings report came out on October 31. The company reported earnings of $1.63 per share. That beat the Street by 12 cents per share. The Q4 report will probably be out in mid-February. Wall Street expects 77 cents per share.

    Last year, AWK raised its dividend by 8.7%. That was its 14th consecutive annual increase in a row.

    Over the last three years or so, AWK hasn’t done particularly well versus the rest of the market. That could be coming to an end.

    American Water said it sees 2022 earnings between $4.39 and $4.49 per share. For 2023, the company sees earnings of $4.72 to $4.82 per share. Long-term, AWK expects EPS growth of 7% to 9%. Not bad for a boring castoff stock.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want to learn more about the stocks on our Buy List, please sign up for our premium service. It’s $20 per month, or $200 per an entire year.

  • Morning News: January 10, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 10th, 2023 at 7:10 am

    China Is Edging Out the US and Europe in the Race for Clean Hydrogen

    Head of Battered German Utility Uniper to Resign After Nationalization

    G-7 Eyes Two Prices Caps for Russian Refined Petroleum Products

    Transcript: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly at WSJ Live Q&A Event

    Biden Administration Plans to Ease Rules for Income-Based Student-Loan Forgiveness

    Wall Street Is Down on Corporate America

    Markets Are Underestimating Inflation Again, BlackRock and Fidelity Warn

    Jamie Dimon Says Fed May Need to Hike Interest Rates Beyond 5%

    U.S. Banks Get Ready for Shrinking Profits and Recession

    Dalio’s Bridgewater Cements Rank in 2022 as Top Foreign Hedge Fund in China

    Coinbase Eliminates 20% of Staff in Latest Round of Layoffs

    As Infrastructure Money Lands, the Job Dividends Begin

    White-Collar Recession: Why Job Cuts Are Hitting Professional Workers

    Goldman Sachs Bankers Have Nickname for Layoff Bloodbath Planned by CEO

    The Law That Made Social Media Possible Faces a Supreme Court Showdown

    Microsoft Considers $10 Billion Investment in ChatGPT Creator

    Disney Is Bringing Employees Back Four Days a Week

    Tesla Has a Major Problem That’s Bigger Than Elon Musk’s Twitter Hijinks

    Failure of Britain’s First Space Launch Is a Setback to Emerging Industry

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: January 9, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 9th, 2023 at 7:09 am

    Goldman Sachs Is Cutting Up to 3,200 Employees this Week as Wall Street Girds for Tough Year

    iPhone Exports from India Double to Surpass $2.5 Billion

    China, a Pioneer in Regulating Algorithms, Turns Its Focus to Deepfakes

    Developing Nations Aren’t Ready for EVs—Unless They Are Made in China

    Angry Tesla Owners Swarm Showrooms in China After Missing Price Cuts

    Public Transit Goes Off the Rails With Fewer Riders, Dwindling Cash, Rising Crime

    Opposite Neel Kashkari’s Analysis, ‘Surge Pricing’ Has Nothing to Do with Inflation

    Morgan Stanley Warns US Stocks Risk 22% Slump

    Goldman to Cut About 3,200 Jobs This Week After Cost Review

    Alibaba Stock Surges After Jack Ma Gives Up Control of Ant Group

    Tech Industry Reversal Intensifies With New Rounds of Layoffs

    Getting Rid of Remote Work Will Take More Than a Downturn

    50 Companies to Watch in 2023

    Mega Bonuses of 50 Months’ Salary Handed Out by Shipping Firm

    Lina Khan’s Non-Compete Favor to Big Labor

    Facebook’s Bridge to Nowhere

    Noma, Rated the World’s Best Restaurant, Is Closing Its Doors

    CES 2023: All the Cool, Crazy and Cute Tech We Found in Las Vegas

    The Dystopia We Fear Is Keeping Us From the Utopia We Deserve

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • December Jobs Report
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 6th, 2023 at 8:34 am

    The government said that the U.S. economy created 223,000 net new jobs last month. Wall Street had been expecting 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

    Average hourly earnings were up 0.3%. Year-over-year, average hourly earnings were up 4.6%.

    The labor force participation rate was 62.3%. The broader U-6 rate was 6.5%.

  • Morning News: January 6, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 6th, 2023 at 7:03 am

    Eurozone Inflation Eases on Lower Energy Prices

    Russia Looks to Press Big Firms for More Cash as War Costs Mount

    The US Keeps Offering China Its Covid Vaccines. China Keeps Saying No

    The World’s Love Affair With Japanese Cars Is Souring

    U.S. EV Sales Jolted Higher in 2022 as Newcomers Target Tesla

    Tesla Now Over 40% Cheaper in China Than US as Prices Cut Again

    Mercedes-Benz Plans to Build U.S. Electric Car Charging Network

    U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed Sharply in November as Global Demand Cooled

    Even a Soft Landing for the Economy May Be Uneven

    December Jobs Report to Show Labor Market’s Strength as 2022 Closed

    U.S. Moves to Bar Noncompete Agreements in Labor Contracts

    How to Be a Better Investor in 2023

    Said Haidar Streaks Ahead of Macro Hedge Funds With 193% Gain

    ChatGPT Creator in Investor Talks at $29 Billion Valuation

    Salesforce Guts Tableau After Spending $15.7 Billion in 2019 Deal

    Southwest’s Meltdown Could Cost It Up to $825 Million

    Facebook Wanted Out of Politics. It Was Messier Than Anyone Expected.

    Jeff Bezos Could ‘Pull a Bob Iger’ and Return as Amazon CEO

    Bed Bath & Beyond Warns of Potential Bankruptcy

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: January 5, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 5th, 2023 at 7:03 am

    BOJ’s Policy Tweak Hasn’t Led to Lending Windfall, Mizuho Head Says

    France’s Le Maire Says Inflation, Public Finances Key Challenges

    How a Texas Border City Is Shaping the Future of Global Trade

    Fed Official Compares Inflation to Uber Surge Pricing

    Fed Officials Fretted That Markets Would Misread Rate Slowdown

    Why Republicans Probably Won’t Tank the Economy to Stick It to Biden

    Good News on Taxes Came Too Late for Many SPACs

    Supply Problems Hurt Auto Sales in 2022. Now Demand Is Weakening.

    Tesla Bulls Brace for a Rough Year Ahead

    US Job Growth to Slow or Even Reverse After Near-Record Year

    Amazon Layoffs to Hit Over 18,000 Workers, the Most in Recent Tech Wave

    Samsung’s Consumer-Products CEO Expects Tech Slump to Persist

    Meta’s Ad Practices Ruled Illegal Under E.U. Law

    Why It’s Hard for Apple to Make iPhones Outside of China

    The Huge Number of Small Breweries Creates a Beer Glut

    FTX’s Former Top Lawyer Aided U.S. Authorities in Bankman-Fried Case

    Silvergate Raced to Cover $8.1 Billion in Withdrawals During Crypto Meltdown

    20 Great Stock Ideas For 2023 From Top-Performing Fund Managers

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  • Morning News: January 4, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 4th, 2023 at 7:03 am

    The UK Recession Will Be Almost as Deep as That of Russia, Economists Predict

    Why Are Energy Prices So High? Some Experts Blame Deregulation.

    Renewable Companies Strive for 24-Hour Power

    Job-Openings Report to Give Snapshot of Labor Demand

    Jack Ma’s Ant Wins Approval for $1.5 Billion Capital Plan

    Salesforce Plans to Cut 10% of Jobs After Customers Pull Back

    Big Tech Is in Crisis. That’s Exactly What It Needed.

    Video Game Workers Get a Union Foothold at Microsoft

    CES 2023: Annual Tech Show Kicks Off as Hardware Startups Face an Innovation Crunch

    New Hedge Fund Soars 163% Betting Everything Is Going Down

    Crispin Odey’s Hedge Fund Soars 152% in Best Ever Year on Inflation Bet

    Investing Novices Are Calling the Shots for $4 Trillion at US Pensions

    Cathie Wood Bought Tesla During Biggest Rout in Two Years

    Banks Should Be More Cautious on Crypto Contagion Risks, U.S. Regulators Warn

    Ex-CFO Pleads Guilty to Stealing from SPACs to Trade Meme Stocks, Cryptocurrencies

    Southwest Airlines Offers 25,000 Points to Passengers Hit by Travel Meltdown

    Don’t Blame the Weather for Flight Delays. Here’s Who’s at Fault

    How McDonald’s Won Russia—and Then Lost It All

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • CWS Market Review – January 3, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 3rd, 2023 at 6:48 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    Happy 2023!

    If you haven’t had a chance to see it, here’s our 2023 Buy List. I’m proud to say that after one day, we’re already beating the market this year. The bad part is that like much of 2022, we’re down, just by less than everybody else.

    I’ll be honest with you, I’m not sorry to see 2022 go. It was a difficult year for investors.

    Last year was the fourth-worst year for the stock market in the last 80 years. Some of that, I should add, is due to the calendar effect. The market peaked on the first day of trading in 2022, and things got worse from there.

    Investors were also fooled by several bear-market rallies. It seems like the market knows exactly when to lure you in and then hit you with another downturn.

    The major investing story this past year was the resurgence of inflation combined with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. In retrospect, it’s alarming how slow the Fed was to realize the scope of the problem.

    I don’t expect the Fed to get everything right, but even after the evidence became clear, the Fed was still slow to react. I’ll give you an example. At the December 2021 meeting, the Fed released its economic projections for 2022. The FOMC members expected inflation to be just 2.6% in 2022. They weren’t even close.

    The Fed finally raised interest rates in March 2022, but even that was by just 0.25%. They still didn’t get it. Only after the issue became unavoidable did the Fed snap into action. For the year, the Fed raised rates seven times, and four of those times were by 0.75%.

    The Fed’s target range for interest rates is 4.25% to 4.50%, and that will most likely rise another 0.25% in four weeks.

    The Fed consistently fights its current battle with what it should have done in its previous battle. When Covid appeared, the Fed and the Federal government responded massively.

    I suspect they were trying to avoid the Fed’s slow response to the Financial Crisis. If you recall, Ben Bernanke famously said that the subprime mess was “contained.” The Fed got the message, eventually.

    But in 2020, the Fed jumped into action and thanks to the Fed cutting interest rates to near 0% in 2020, that effectively took risk out of the market. Investors responded as you would guess—they frantically bid up all the risky areas of the market. “Why not? The Fed has our back!” was the reasoning.

    Shaky stocks like Peloton (PTON) and Zoom (ZM) zoomed. Zoom did so well that shares of ZOOM also rallied even though it was the wrong ticker. That was the thinking at the time.

    Not only that, but areas like Crypto and NFTs soared. Once the Fed started to raise rates, then the high-risk rally got undone. It’s not over. Even today, shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell to another 52-week low.

    A little over a year ago, Tesla was going for $414 per share. Today it got down to $105 per share. The losses are so bad that Elon Musk became the first person to lose $200 billion. It’s the greatest loss of fortune of anyone in history. (Don’t worry about Elon, he still has plenty left.)

    Our Buy List vs. the S&P 500

    Let’s look at some market numbers for 2022. Last year, the S&P 500 lost 19.44%. If we include dividends, then the index was down 18.11%. Our 2022 Buy List was down 10.42%. Including dividends, we were down 9.28%.

    If there’s a silver lining to 2022, it’s that the selling was largely concentrated away from the sectors of the market that we prefer. Just by looking at the stats, you can see how much better safe stocks did last year.

    For the year, the S&P 500 Growth Index (all these numbers are with divs) was down by 29.41%. The S&P 500 Value Index lost only 5.22%. The S&P 500 High Beta Index was down by 20.31% while the S&P 500 Low Vol Index lost 4.59%. The S&P 500 High Dividend Index fell only 1.11%. Safety was in last year.

    S&P divides the S&P 500 into 11 different sectors. Here’s how the sectors performed last year.

    Energy was the big winner. Both Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are poised to make a combined profit of $100 billion this year.

    I generally steer clear of making economic predictions, but I’m going to make a few qualified exceptions. The first is that I think it’s very likely the U.S. economy will enter a mild recession this year. The timing may take longer than people think, but that is the safe assumption.

    By no means do I encourage investors to cut and run. In fact, times like these are often very good times to invest. That’s what bear markets are good for. I’m most concerned about the weakening housing market. Unfortunately, the housing market always finds itself placed between the Federal Reserve and the economy. When the Fed fights off inflation, the housing sector is collateral damage. That’s what’s happening right now.

    From Reuters a few days ago:

    U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled to a 2-1/2 year low in November and permits for future construction plunged as higher mortgage rates continued to depress housing market activity.

    The dour report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday followed on the heels of news on Monday that confidence among homebuilders plummeted for a record 12th month in December. The housing market has borne the brunt of the Federal Reserve’s fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s as the U.S. central bank wages war against inflation.

    I also expect the U.S. dollar to lose some steam this year. The greenback has had a good run from early 2021 until a few months ago, but now the European and American economies are out of sync. Our friends across the pond are still hiking and the Fed could be looking to cut rates before the end of the year. In fact, the dollar has already started to pull back since November. A weaker dollar could help cushion the blow of any weaker growth we may face.

    Stock Focus: Dollar General

    Speaking of the dollar, that reminds me of this week’s stock which is Dollar General (DG). This has been a remarkably successful company and it has a remarkably simple business model. You can get basic items at a discount.

    I came close to adding DG to this year’s Buy List as a good replacement for Ross Stores (ROST). What troubled me was its recent earnings report which showed that Dollar General still has supply chain issues. Still, this is a very good company, and it may be worth a closer look.

    First, let’s look at how successful DG has been. In 2009, the company IPO’d at $21 per share. Last March, it got to an all-time high of $262 per share. That works out to a return of more than 21% per year for over a decade.

    There are now more 18,000 locations across the United States. Dollar General says it has more brick-and-mortar locations than any other retailer in the country. The company was founded in Kentucky in 1939. Even today, the company has a strong southern focus. There are currently more stores in Mississippi than in New York.

    Dollar General didn’t get the present name until 1955. The company IPO’d for the first time in 1968. It was later taken private in 2007, slimmed down and then IPO’d again. The company now has a market value of $55 billion.

    A few years ago, the company was part of the great Dollar Bidding War of 2014. This involved Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Dollar General offered nearly $10 billion to buy Family Dollar. The bid was rejected, and Dollar Tree agreed to merge with Dollar General. Honestly, I’m glad Dollar General lost.

    It wasn’t a total loss. Dollar General picked up Dollar Express which was a spinoff from the Family Dollar-Dollar Tree deal.

    Dollar General works hard to get the lowest possible prices for its customers. DG’s operating margin runs about 10%. This business is all about cost control. Dollar General is also a good business when consumers are worried about inflation.

    Dollar General currently pays a dividend 55 cents per share. That’s a tiny yield but I expect to see the dividend increased soon.

    Last month, DG reported its fiscal Q3 results. Net sales were up 11.1% to $9.5 billion and same-store sales were up by 6.8%. EPS rose 12% to $2.33 per share.

    The problem was that that was an earnings miss of 20 cents per share. It seems that Dollar General continues to face supply chain issues. This has been a big issue for them. Last year, it helped snap the company’s 31-year run of higher same-store sales.

    Along with the earnings report, Dollar General slashed its Q4 earnings range to $3.15 to $3.30 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $3.66 per share. The stock fell more than 7% on the news.

    I’m going to continue watching Dollar General, but I want to see these problems get behind them before I can consider it a good investment. It’s a great business and it’s a good example of a stock that’s probably not fully valued due to its capacity for growth.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want to learn more about the stocks on our Buy List, please sign up for our premium service. It’s $20 per month, or $200 per an entire year.

  • Morning News: January 3, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 3rd, 2023 at 7:02 am

    Germany Open to Seizing Russian Assets to Help Ukraine Rebuild

    Tourism and Manufacturing Fight for the Future of Power in Europe

    Exxon, Chevron Focus on Oil Projects in the Americas

    The Law That Brought Down Mob Bosses Is Being Turned Against the Oil Industry

    Japan’s Business Owners Can’t Find Successors. This Man Is Giving His Away

    Why Japan’s Sudden Shift on Bond Purchases Dealt a Global Jolt

    Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2023

    Get Ready for the Richcession

    Biden Caps Two Years of Action on the Economy, With New Challenges Ahead

    Take Warren Buffett’s Advice: Don’t Buy Any Stock in 2023 Unless It Passes This Test

    More Bosses Order Workers Back to the Office as Job Market Shifts

    Wave of Job-Switching Has Employers on a Training Treadmill

    General Electric Set to Spin Off Health Unit—Putting Focus Back on Power Division

    SpaceX Valued at $137 Billion in Latest Funding Round, CNBC Says

    Tesla Car Sales Grow Slower Than Expected, Amplifying Concerns

    Tesla Fined in Korea for Alleged False Advertising

    Elon Musk Has Lost a Bigger Fortune than Anyone in History

    How Bankman-Fried Negotiated His Way Out of Jail

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  • Eddy ElfenbeinEddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 by 72% over the last 19 years. (more)

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    16 Jun

    The FOMC meets again this week. Don't expect any movement on rates. We'll also get the SEP (aka the "blue dots").

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    16 Jun

    Stocks Rebound as Investors Shrug Off Israel-Iran Conflict

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    15 Jun

    Paul Skenes has had 15 starts this year. By my (rough) judgement, he's had 13 good starts and 2 bad ones, but he's W-L record of 4-6. It really is a lousy stat.

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    15 Jun

    Russia ‘using stolen Ukrainian children to rebuild for future wars’

    Reply on Twitter 1934323202659950948 Retweet on Twitter 1934323202659950948 3 Like on Twitter 1934323202659950948 23 X 1934323202659950948
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