CWS Market Review – May 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 13th, 2025 at 7:25 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

I have great news! The stock market is now flat for the year!

OK, I realize that may not sound that great, but it would have completely shocked, dumbfounded and flabbergasted any investor from three weeks ago. Since April 8, the stock market is up 18%. The S&P 500 is now above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Remember how the Great Trade War of 2025 was going to crash the economy and the stock market? Well, it seems those predictions were just a wee bit premature.

Yesterday, the White House and China agreed to defuse a trade war that was getting uglier by the day. President Trump said, “We’re not looking to hurt China.” From the New York Times:

The move by the United States, after President Trump had repeatedly declared that he would not lower tariffs without concessions from China, represented an acknowledgment of the costs of an all-out trade war with China. Despite the White House’s bluster, the Trump administration ultimately backed off, for now, from the steepest tariffs, and agreed to hold more formal talks with Beijing after companies and consumers started showing signs of economic strain.

The stock market took the hint and prices soared.

Yesterday the stock market had its second-best day in the last 2-1/2 years. For the day, the S&P 500 soared 3.26%.

The best market’s best day in the last 2-1/2 years—in fact, one of its best days in decades—came one month ago, on April 9th. It’s still early, but that day may go down as the start of a new bull market.

Here’s where it gets interesting, because both days (yesterday and April 9th) were surprisingly similar. In both cases, the markets rallied on news that the trade war tensions were easing. The S&P 500 is only about 4% from a new all-time high.

It’s as if yesterday’s gain was about one-third that of April 9th’s gain, even by category. Yesterday, the Nasdaq gained 4.35%. The S&P 500 High Beta index gained 5.46% while the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index gained a measly 0.15%. That’s very similar to the kind of action we saw on April 9th, just not as severe.

Many of the high-risk, fast-growth stocks did very well on Monday. For example, the Mag 7 ETF (MAGS) gained 5.8%. On the other hand, many high-yielding stocks like Altria (MO) and Duke Energy (DUK), lost ground. The lesson here is that investors were leaving safe havens and chasing risk.

It’s as if investors had been itching to do this for several week but were just waiting for official permission. Thanks to the president’s decision, they finally got it.

This was also reflected in the bond market where yields rose. The two-year Treasury, which is usually the most sensitive to the Federal Reserve, saw its yield rise ten basis points to 3.98%.

In the futures pits, traders altered their bets as to what the Fed will do. Now it looks like a June rate cut is off the table. In fact, traders don’t see the Fed cutting rates until September. This happened even as we got favorable inflation news today.

Much of the trading action we saw on Monday continued into Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.72% on Tuesday. Again, it was a divided market. For example, the Nasdaq gained 1.61% while the Dow was down 270 points, or -0.64%. The S&P 500 Growth ETF gained 1.67% while the S&P 500 Value ETF lost 0.44%. This shows that investors are rotating out of safer areas in search of bigger returns. I don’t expect this trend to last long.

Inflation Falls to Four-Year Low

This morning, the government said that inflation rose by 0.2% last month. That was in line with Wall Street’s forecast. The inflation report brings the 12-month rate to 2.3% which is a four-year low. I should add that these numbers don’t fully reflect the effects of the trade war.

The core rate also increased by 0.2%. That was 0.1% below expectations. Over the last 12 months, core inflation has increased by 2.8%. The core rate excludes food and energy prices which can be very volatile.

After posting a 2.4% slide in March, energy prices rebounded, with a 0.7% gain. Food saw a 0.1% decline.

Used vehicle prices saw their second straight drop, down 0.5%, while new vehicles were flat. Apparel costs also were off 0.2% though medical care services increased 0.5%. Health insurance increased 0.4% while motor vehicle insurance was up 0.6%.

Interestingly, egg prices fell by 12.7% last month but are still up nearly 50% in the last year. While the inflation numbers are good, the tariff issue could still be a problem for prices. The stock market is clearly pleased that President Trump is willing to back away from his most aggressive stand on tariffs.

Here’s a look at “real” interest rates, meaning after adjusting for inflation. I used the core rate rather than the headline inflation, which I think presents a more accurate picture.

Many of the trends we saw in Monday’s market continued into today. Tech stocks, for example, did very well. Also, growth stocks outpaced value. This is what to expect if investors see interest rates staying higher for longer.

We recently completed a very good earnings season for our Buy List. Fifteen of our Buy List stocks beat earnings, one missed, and another reported inline.

We’re nearly done with Q1 earnings season so let’s look at where we stand. According to the latest data, 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported results so far. Of those, 78% have beaten on earnings. That’s a little bit better than the long-run average. Companies are reporting earnings that are 8.5% better than expected. That’s also a little better than the long-term average.

Earnings growth is currently tracking an increase of 13.4% over last year’s Q1. That’s pretty good. At the end of March, Wall Street had expected growth of just 7.1%. If that number holds, and I think it will, then Q1 will be the seventh quarter in a row of positive growth and the second in a row of double-digit growth.

For revenues, 62% of companies in the S&P 500 have beaten on sales. That’s not so hot, and it’s below the long-term average. Companies are beating sales by only 0.7%. Revenue growth is currently tracking at 4.8%. If it holds up, then Q1 will be the 18th quarter in a row of revenue growth.

For Q2, Wall Street expects earnings growth of 5.2%, and 9.3% growth for the whole year. The much-predicted recession still hasn’t come.

Amphenol Jumps to New High

One of our Buy List stocks that’s done especially well for us lately is Amphenol (APH). We added the stock to our Buy List last year and it’s up 86% for us in a little over 16 months.

If you’re not familiar with Amphenol, it’s one of the world’s largest makers of fiber optic connectors, antennas, sensors and high-speed cables. Amphenol’s products are used in several different industries such as automotive, broadband communications, commercial aerospace, industrial, IT, data communications, military, mobile devices and mobile networks.

Three weeks ago, Amphenol reported outstanding results for its Q1. The company earned 63 cents per share, which easily topped Wall Street’s estimate of 52 cents per share. Sales were up 48% in U.S. dollars, and up 33% organically.

Amphenol’s operating margin improved to 23.5% and free-cash flow was $580 million. During the quarter, Amphenol bought back 2.7 million shares for $180.9 million and paid out $200 million in dividends. That means that $380 million was returned to shareholders.

For Q2, APH expects sales between $4.9 and $5 billion. That represents sales growth of 36% to 39%. Amphenol also sees Q2 earnings ranging between 64 and 66 cents per share. That represents growth of 45% to 50% over last year’s Q2.

Traders loved the report, as did I. In three days, APH gained 20%. I’m expecting more gains in the months ahead.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: May 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 13th, 2025 at 7:05 am

US Trade Policy is a Humanitarian and Geopolitical Disaster

Trump’s Disruptive Trade Agenda Is Giving Way to Scaled-Back Deals

Trump Slashes ‘De Minimis’ Tariffs on Small Shipments From China

Trump’s China Deal Makes Sense. How He Got Here Doesn’t.

These Are the Tariffs That Dreams Are Made Of

There Are Two Chinas, and America Must Understand Both

Trade Chaos Raises Big Question: Why Does China Eat So Many American Pistachios?

JD.com Profit Beats as Chinese Consumer Sentiment Brightens

German Financial Optimism Gets Boost from Tariff Retreat, Merz Government

Germany Has a Long History of U.S. Investment. That May Be Changing.

Adnoc’s $13 Billion Bid for Germany’s Covestro Approved by EU

A Toxic Pit Could Be a Gold Mine for Rare-Earth Elements

Re-set, Surge and Hold

Even If Trump Gets Them to ‘Zero,’ Americans Will Be Worse Off

Trump Has Already Ruined Christmas

Three Faces of American Capitalism: Buffett, Musk, and Trump

GOP Tax Plan Tilts to Trump Populism But Still Aids the Rich

Rather Than Raise Tax Rates, Close the Tax Loopholes

Citadel’s Griffin Says Going to Cash May Have Been Best in Tariff Turmoil

Robinhood Woos Canadian Crypto Users with Nearly $180 Million WonderFi Purchase

BNP Shareholders Approve Age Limit Increase for CEO Bonnafe

Worried About the Economy, America’s Small Businesses Are Reducing Investment and Hiring, Survey Shows

US Prepares to Ease Saudi Arabia’s Access to AI Chips

How to Cut US Drug Prices Without Hurting Innovation

Honda, Nissan Expect to Be Hit Hard by U.S. Tariffs

China Removes Ban on Boeing Deliveries After US Trade Truce

Why the US Air Traffic Controller Shortage Is Reaching a Crisis Point

United Adds Caviar Service and Luxe Jammies in Race for Superpremium Travelers

As Foreign Tourists Stay Away, U.S. Could Lose $12.5 Billion This Year, Tourism Group Says

Hollywood Groups Call for Tax Changes After Trump’s Tariff Threat

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Morning News: May 12, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 12th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Trump and Xi Tone Down a Senseless Trade War

Surprise U.S.-China Trade Deal Gives Global Economy a Big Reprieve

What the U.S.-China Trade Agreement Means for Markets

Global Stocks Jump After U.S. and China Cut Tariffs

George W. Bush Lit The Dollar Fire On Which Trump Throws A Match

U.S. Trade Agreements Mark Progress, Despite Lingering Uncertainty, BOE’s Lombardelli Says

Japanese Foreign Equity Purchases in April Hit 20-Year High on Global Market Volatility

Trump Truce Leaves India Furious, Pakistan Elated as Risks Loom

Germany’s Solar Power Generation Surges to a Fresh Record

After Driving Down Oil, Saudi Arabia’s MBS Looks for Trump Dividend

For Trump, It’s a New Era of Deal-Making With Tech’s Most-Coveted Commodity

Americans Embrace Road Trips as Economic Fears Discourage Flying

California Drivers Are Paying Up as Refineries Disappear

A Shipping Change Might Help Small Businesses if Not for Trump’s Trade Wars

How Tariffs Are Crushing Small Businesses: ‘Nobody in Power Seems to Care’

The Spring Home Sales Season Is Shaping Up to Be a Dud

The FTC’s Andrew Ferguson Sounds Eerily Like Lina Khan

Price Controls on Credit Cards Will Hit Community Banks, Customers

Note to Feds: Don’t Destroy Google

The iPhone Is a Nicer Place With Fewer Restrictions After Ruling

SoftBank Stargate Venture With OpenAI Hits Snags on Tariff Fears

The Tech Guys Are Fighting. Literally.

Can More Military Spending Revive an Economy? This British Town Hopes So.

Trump’s Vow to Cut US Drug Prices Drags Pharma Stocks Lower

Why Moderna Merged Its Tech and HR Departments

Elizabeth Holmes’s Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Start-Up

Why Patients Are Being Forced to Switch to a 2nd-Choice Obesity Drug

TikTokers Are Self-Diagnosing. That’s Good and Bad.

Danone Acquires U.S. Plant-Based Organic Formula Maker Kate Farms

Crafters Mourn the Demise of Their ‘Little Happy Safe Place’

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Morning News: May 9, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 9th, 2025 at 7:02 am

India, Pakistan and the World Still Need the American Sheriff

Silicon Valley Is Coming for the Pentgon’s $1 Trillion Budget

Putin Targets ‘Victory’ in Ukraine as Trump Pushes for Truce

Russian Potato Crisis Adds to Putin’s Inflation Headache

Trump’s Deportations Upend a Town at Epicenter of Brazilian Migration

China to Crack Down on Rare-Earth Materials Ahead of U.S. Trade Talks

Trump Says 80% China Tariff ‘Seems Right,’ Ahead of Talks

China’s Central Bank Urges Coordinated Push to Boost Inflation

Trade War Shock Is Scrambling China’s Exports

Xi Jinping May Be An Authoritarian, But He’s Not a Magician

China Wage Data Goes Missing as Tariffs Imperil Millions of Jobs

‘How Do I Survive?’: Tariffs Threaten U.S. Market for Traditional Chinese Medicine

Europe’s Gig Economy Is Consolidating Under US Ownership

Europe’s Wind Industry Faces Uncertainty Over Trump’s Policies

The Best Part of the US-UK Trade Deal Isn’t Tariffs

With U.K. Deal, U.S. Signals That 10% Tariff on World Is New Baseline

Trump’s Bespoke Trade Deal With U.K. Sets Little Precedent for Other Nations

Does ‘Strategic Uncertainty’ Render Trump Tariffs ‘Strategic’?

Key S&P 500 Model Turns Bearish for First Time in Two Years

Things Are About to Get Complicated for the Fed

Trade Hopes Feed Risk Appetite, Boosting Stocks and Bitcoin

Citigroup Must Face $1 Billion Lawsuit Claiming it Aided Mexican Oil Company Fraud

Musk-Tied Investor Clashes With One of World’s Biggest Asset Managers

Citadel Lobbies for Four-Year Non-Competes in Home State of Florida

Celsius Founder Alex Mashinsky Gets 12 Years Prison for Crypto Fraud

OpenAI Wants to Create a Public Benefit Corporation. What Does That Mean?

Panasonic Holdings to Cut 10,000 Jobs Globally

How the TV Hit ‘Fallout’ Became a Champion of Made-in-California

AMC Networks Profit Shrinks as Linear TV Fades

‘Set-Jetting’ Turns Fiction Into Real, Often Expensive, Vacations

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Morning News: May 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 8th, 2025 at 7:08 am

How India Is Trying to Squeeze Pakistan Far From the Battlefield

Saudi Arabia Goes Whistling Past the Kazakh Oil Graveyard

Why the Peak Shale Oil Predictions May Be Premature — Again

Conoco Cuts CapEx View on Volatile Economic Status

One of Warren Buffett’s Last Big Bets Is Souring

AI Is Draining Water From the Areas That Need It Most

Trump Touts ‘Full’ US-UK Trade Pact in Boost for Starmer After Weeks of Talks

U.S. Trade Deal Could Lift U.K. Economy, but Won’t Transform It

Recession Warnings Are Everywhere, Except in the Data

Tariffs Will Be Bad, But They Won’t Cause a Recession

Pre-Tariff Car Buying Frenzy Leaves Americans With a Big Debt Problem

Stagflation, But That’s Not Important Right Now

Private Equity Shoves Angry Lenders to the Back of the Line

Banker Bonuses Set to Drop as Tariffs Cause Economic Uncertainty

It’s Hard Not to Celebrate Meta’s $168 Million Spyware Win

Netflix Overhauls Its Home Screen for the First Time in 12 Years

Trump’s Threat of ‘Foreign’ Film Tariffs Stirs Anxiety in the U.K.

Warner Brothers Discovery 1Q Loss Narrows, Sales Decline

Rite Aid’s Bankruptcy Is a Warning About American Health Care

Toyota Says Tariffs Will Erase $1.3 Billion in Profits in Just 2 Months

Shopify Falls as Outlook Just Meets Expectations Amid Trade War

Peloton Falls After Posting a Third Straight Sales Decline

The Best Player In the W.N.B.A. Now Has Her Own Shoe. Why Did It Take So Long?

Puma Says Tariff Impact on Outlook Remains Uncertain

Burger King Sales Hit by Slowdown in Americans Dining Out

Molson Coors Cuts Outlook on Weak US Beer Demand

Krispy Kreme Withdraws 2025 Outlook, Dividend as Macroeconomic Woes Hang Over Operations

Match Group to Cut 13% of Workforce Amid Weak Demand From Younger Users

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Morning News: May 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 7th, 2025 at 7:07 am

China Lowers Rates and Makes Bank Lending Easier in Response to Tariffs

China Agreed to U.S. Tariff Talks but Is Likely to Play Hardball

Countdown to China Trade Talks

Why China Is Investing So Much Money in Moroccan Factories

Dollar Faces $2.5 Trillion ‘Avalanche’ of Asian Sales, Jen Says

German Factory Orders Jumped in March as Firms Braced for Tariffs

Eurozone Shoppers Spend Less as Tariffs Weigh on Mood

EU Floats Sanctions on Lukoil Dubai Unit for Shadow Fleet Link

Canada Trade Deficit Narrowed in March

Trump’s Threatened Tariffs Are So Large, 10% Feels Like a Relief

States, Cities Face Funding Collapse Threat with Trump Cuts

Trump’s Economic Message Sounds a Lot Like Biden’s. It Didn’t Work Then and It Won’t Work Now.

Trump Still Has a Chance to Remake Rather Than Wreck Global Trade

It’s In the Pessimism and Policy Errors That Recovery Can Be Found

Wall Street Is Watching This Shipping Data to Gauge Tariff Impact

Tax Evasion or Student Debt? The US Chose the Wrong Crackdown

Let’s Reform a Tax Code That Costs Americans Billions of Hours

Nigeria Says Exxon Commits $1.5 Billion to Deepwater Development

Meta’s Purchase of Instagram Underscores the Genius of the M&A

Startup SimpleClosure Sees Boom In Giving Fellow Startups ‘Peace of Mind’ to Die

CrowdStrike to Cut 5% of Workforce

Uber Swings to Profit on Bookings Growth; Sees Bookings Up in 2Q

BMW Sticks to Guidance and Expects Tariff Relief From July

A Global Drug Supply Chain Is Actually a Good Thing

Novo Nordisk Investors Breathe Sigh of Relief Despite Guidance Hit From Copycat Drugs

WeightWatchers Files for Bankruptcy Amid Wave of New Weight-Loss Methods

Disney Earnings Bolstered by U.S. Theme Park Growth, Streaming Gains

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CWS Market Review – May 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 6th, 2025 at 5:51 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Over the weekend, Warren Buffett announced that he’s stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. On January 1, Greg Abel will take over. Berkshire’s board unanimously approved Buffett’s suggestion. Buffett is 93 years old.

Yesterday, the A shares of Berkshire fell $40,000. I guess that’s a good sign of Wall Street’s respect for Buffett.

Buffett’s track record is simply amazing. Since 1965, Berkshire has gained 5.5 million percent while the S&P 500 has gained a measly 39,000%. That means that if Berkshire fell by 99% tomorrow, it would still be outperforming the market.

Until the big sector rotation earlier this year, CWS had (barely) outperformed Berkshire over a seven-year run. As for the other 60 years, ol’ Warren’s got a big edge.

To be fair, most of Berkshire’s really big years came decades ago. Even Buffett has conceded that his portfolio won’t do as well as it did. Before Monday’s big drop, one share of Berkshire was worth more than $800,000.

I wish Mr. Buffett a happy retirement.

Yesterday, the stock market snapped its nine-day winning streak. The decline wasn’t that bad (-0.64) but it was the first daily drop since April 21.

On Friday, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 177,000 nonfarm payrolls last month. That news surprised Wall Street. Economists had been expecting an increase of just 133,000.

The figure for March was revised lower by 43,000 to 185,000. The February number was lowered by 15,000.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, which is low by historic standards. In fact, the unemployment rate last month was lower than every single month from 1971 to 1998.

The key stat I like to watch is average hourly earnings. After all, worker pay eventually translates to revenue for a company. Last month, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% which was 0.1% below expectations. Over the last year, average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% which isn’t much higher than inflation.

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.6% and the broader U-6 rate dropped to 7.8%. Wall Street has been looking hard for signs of the impact of tariffs but so far, it hasn’t found anything.

Here are some details:

Health care continued to be a leader in job creation, adding 51,000 jobs. Other sectors posting gains included transportation and warehousing (29,000), financial activities (14,000), and social assistance.

The federal government reported a loss of 9,000 jobs on the month amid Trump’s efforts, led by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, to trim payrolls in the public sector. Federal government jobs have declined by just 26,000 since January, as employees furloughed but still receiving severance are not counted as unemployed, according to the BLS.

Manufacturing saw a slight loss of 1,000 jobs as well.

President Trump took to Truth Social, “Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”

He may get his rate cut soon. The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting today. The Fed will release its policy statement tomorrow afternoon. I don’t expect to see a rate cut this time, but one may be coming at the Fed’s June meeting, in six weeks.

Traders currently place the odds of a rate cut next month at 68%. All told, traders see the Fed lowering rates by a total of 0.75% by the end of the year. At the June meeting, the Fed will also update its economic projections for the next few years.

Does Job Growth Tell Us When Recessions Are?

I was curious to see how changes in nonfarm payrolls have historically aligned with recessions and expansions.

I reviewed the last 1,000 months’ worth of data. Of those 1,000 months, job growth was negative 219 times. Of those 219 months, the U.S. economy was in a recession for 113 months which is about half the time.

Even when the economy is shedding jobs, that only indicates a roughly 50% chance that the economy is officially in a recession.

For April, job growth was 0.11% which comes in 616th out of the last 1,000 months. The important takeaway is that recessions almost never line up with that type of job growth. To get a real recession, you need more than job losses – the economy needs to be shedding jobs.

Looking at the data, it seems that job growth of -0.13% is the turning point. In today’s terms, that’s a loss of 207,00 jobs. Of the last 1,000 months, there have been 125 months with that level of job losses, and 71% of those months have come during a recession.

Just going by the jobs report, the economy very likely isn’t in a recession. The next big test for the market comes a week from today when the government releases its CPI report for April. The last report showed a tiny bit of deflation.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: May 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 6th, 2025 at 7:04 am

China Services Sector Gauge Slips to Seven-Month Low Amid Trade Spat

French Industry Produced More Ahead of Tariffs

U.S. Could Collect More Than $100 Billion With Broader Tariffs, EU Trade Official Says

EU Targets €100 Billion of US Goods With Tariffs If Talks Fail

Tariff Fears Loom Large at Milken as Executives Try to Stay Calm

UPS and FedEx Once Handled a Deluge of Packages From China. That’s Changing.

Trade War Turbulence Masks China’s Long-Term Metal Demand

The Cost of Trump’s Trade War on Just One Ship

The Closer We Get to Zero Tariffs, the Greater We Become

Marathon Petroleum Swings to Loss on Lower Refining Margins

Why Has Taiwan’s Dollar Soared in Value, and Who Benefits?

Tariffs Could Wreck What Bangladesh’s Garment Workers Have Gained

Immigration Crackdowns Put an $800 Billion Lifeline at Risk

Fed Confronts Lose-Lose Scenario Amid Haphazard Tariff Rollout

The Stock Market’s Fear Gauge Is Misunderstood

Goldman Says Bear Market Rallies Are the Norm

Cowboy Boots, Baby Clothes, Flight Simulators: Berkshire Hathaway Is Everywhere

Telemarketers Are Using a Weird Trick to Sell Bare-Bones Health Plans

Tech’s Strong Earnings Results Obscured by Tariff Uncertainty

Microsoft Is Key Holdout for OpenAI Restructuring Plan

Palantir Technologies Raises Outlook on Continued AI Demand

China’s Pony AI Is Uber’s Latest Robotaxi Partner in Middle East

Welcome the Driverless Trucks

Ford Says Tariffs Will Cost Company $1.5 Billion in 2025

Ferrari Backs Guidance as Earnings Beat Forecasts

Boise Cascade Reports Lower Sales, Profit as Home Construction Slows

Philips Cuts Earnings Margin Target On China-U.S. Trade War

DoorDash Agrees to Buy Deliveroo in $3.9 Billion Deal

DoorDash Swings to a Profit and Plans to Buy SevenRooms For $1.2 Billion

Trump Walks Back His Idea for Film Tariffs Amid Mass Confusion

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Morning News: May 5, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 5th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Oil Prices Slide Further on OPEC Plans to Increase Supply

OPEC+ Supply Hike Forces Wall Street to Redo Sums, Yet Again

Democrats Have Been at War With Oil for Too Long

Taiwan’s Markets Jolted as Currency Surges Most Since 1980s

US Seeks to Weaken Global Development Finance Efforts, UN Document Shows

Inside the Dizzying Chaos of Running a Freight Business Under Trump

The World’s Top Jet Fighter Is About to Get More Expensive

Effort to Close De Minimis US Tariff Loophole ‘Could Get Messy’

Trump Says He Will Put 100% Tariff on Movies Made Outside U.S.

Trump Downplays Economic Concerns as He Looks to Cut Trade Deals

Trump Suggests Some Trade Deals May Come as Soon as This Week

Economic Concerns Are Mounting, but the Fed Isn’t Cutting Rates Proactively

Kevin Warsh Is Viewed As A Future ‘Adult’ At The Fed. That’s Dangerous

This Earnings Season Is a Rorschach Test for Investors

Trump’s Tariffs Are Lifting Some U.S. Manufacturers

Corporate America Is Leaving More Jobs Unfilled

CEOs Celebrate Buffett as He Calls a Close on 5,500,000% Run

Buffett’s Astonishing Track Record in Five Charts

Warren Buffett to Remain Berkshire Hathaway Chairman

How Warren Buffett Changed the Way Investors Think of Investing

The Buffett View of Trade Deals

Who Is Gregory Abel, Warren Buffett’s Successor?

As Buffett Steps Down, Omaha Is Grateful—and a Little Worried

Erste Acquires 49% Stake in Santander’s Polish Unit for $7.7 Billion

Sunoco to Buy Canadian Fuel Seller Parkland for $9.1 Billion

As Iowa Farmers Plant, They Consider Rain, Rates, Tariffs and Trump

The Antitrust Stranglehold on America’s Tech Sector

AI Spending Is the Only Certainty in Silicon Valley Right Now

It’s The End of Cheap Flying as Americans Tire of Budget Airlines

Tyson’s Profits Jump as Chicken Gains Outweigh Beef Losses

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Morning News: May 2, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 2nd, 2025 at 7:01 am

South Korea Inflation Flat in April, Possibly Paving Way for Policy Easing

Trump Ends Chinese Tariff Loophole, Raising the Cost of Online Goods

How a U.S. Tax Loophole Supercharged China’s Exports

Asia Factory Activity Sputters as Trump Tariffs Hit

Head of the Port of LA Sees a Brewing Trade Storm

U.S. Payoff for Ukraine Minerals Deal Faces Many Hurdles

Eurozone Inflation Holds Close to Target, Lining Up New Rate Cuts to Counter Tariffs

EU Could Offer to Buy $56 Billion of U.S. Products to End Trade War, Top Negotiator Says

The Brickbats Keep Coming for Oil Market Bulls

Exxon and Chevron Report Lower Profits While Girding for Tariffs

At a Dubai Conference, Trump’s Conflicts Take Center Stage

The MAGA Cheering Squad Is Losing Faith

DOGE’s Damage Makes Way for Serious Government Reform

GDP: A Worthless Number Meets Mindless Economic Policy

Corporate America Owes the Rest of Us $87 Trillion

U.S. Job Growth Expected to Have Slowed in April

Middle-Income Consumers Feel Pinched. That’s Bad for Some of America’s Best Known Brands.

Home Builders Are Piling on Discounts as They Struggle to Entice Buyers

Everyone Could Use a Little Rudyard Kipling In Their Financial Planning

Trump Says Harvard Will Lose Its Tax-Exempt Status

Colleges Know How Much You’re Willing to Pay. Here’s How.

NatWest Narrows Guidance After Profit Beat

Amazon, Apple Show Big Tech Not Immune From Tariff Pain

Apple to Source Billions of US-Made Chips in Supply Chain Shift

DuPont de Nemours Sees Tariffs Costing $60M

BASF Confirms Outlook But Warns of Tariff Uncertainty

Cigna Group Swings to Profit, Posts Higher Revenue

Wendy’s Adds to Restaurant Pullback on ‘Challenging’ US Market

How an Israeli Hostage Negotiator Outsmarts Ransomware Hackers

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